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Articles of 2009

PREDICTION PAGE: Mayweather/Marquez Preds Go Here

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The level of certainty that Floyd Mayweather is going to have his way with Juan Manuel Marquez on Saturday in Las Vegas, taking advantage of his superior speed and strength, is something like the degree of inevitability many folks held onto when they sized up the Dec. 2008 Manny Pacquiao-Oscar De La Hoya bout.  Am I wrong?  Didn't many of you, and us, dismiss the Pacquiao/De La Hoya bout as a shameful, cynical exercise in revenue generation? Didn't most experts say that Oscar's strength edge would be the overwhelming asset on that night? They–we–didn't factor in how much his weight loss would drain him, how much accrued wear and tear had diminished him. And many of us didn't give Manny Pacquiao enough credit coming on, for his willpower, his far-above-average handspeed, his vastly improved skills.

Entering tomorrow's fight at the MGM Grand, is it possible that enough folks aren't entertaining the notion that a two-year layoff might have actually made the 32-year-old Mayweather(39-0, 25 KOS) more mortal? Or that just maybe, he really did hurt his ribs back in June, and that his body is in betrayal mode? Or if the rampant rumors that Floyd's broke as a joke have been weighing him down mentally, and might disrupt his concentration? And wow, Floyd didn't want to weigh 144 pounds, and paid through the nose to not do so…What does that mean? And what if the 36-year-old  Marquez (50-4, 37 KOs) is the Pacquiao in this go-round–what if people aren't able to picture his accurate launches hurting Mayweather in their mind's eye, but some stinging blows do land and hurt a fighter who historically does not even get buzzed, let alone dropped or stopped? Has to happen someday, doesn't it?  Now, I'm of the mind that it won't happen Saturday. But I say the same thing I said going into Pacquiao/De La Hoya: there will be some pleasing back and forth action. There will be some hard rounds to score. Back then, I gave Oscar the nod, not properly factoring in the level of dementia that had someone letting him weigh in the day before the fight, contracted at 147 or under, at 144 pounds. (He gained just three pounds by the night of the fight, and didn't exploit his obvious upper hand. Pacman weighed 142, and hydrated/chowed to 148 1/2 before the clash unfolded. There is no way that Floyd will be lighter than Marquez on Saturday; I promise right here and now that I will stand next to Floyd Mayweather Sr at General Santos City Airport and accuse Pacman of using steroids via bullhorn if Marquez weighs more than Mayweather.)

But let's traffic in the possibility, that on Saturday, once again the man used to fighting in lower weight classes, Marquez, will snort at our primitive handicapping methods, and will wow us with his technical brilliance and ferocity.  Shall we?

No?

You find yourself wondering what happens if Floyd decides to get cookin' earlier than usual, and blitzes Marquez as Juan Diaz did, and how Marquez can hope to fend that off? Basically, so do I. The greater likelihood–because Mayweather is such a careful character, so smart as he sizes up his foe and makes certain that the traps he's setting are the right traps for the right time and place–that he'll bring Marquez into the deep end of the pool, and yank him under and hold his head for a spell. Marquez won't stay under, he's too proud to be stopped. But Floyd will take a UD12, by a three point margin. That's how I guesstimate things.

What about you, TSS Universe? Fire away your pred, with result, and round. Feel free to tack on your take on the overlooked undercard, John-Juarez II and Katsidis-Escobedo. Here's how our crew sees it going down.

BERNARD FERNANDEZ A former ringside physician has determined that Juan Manuel Marquez' pre-fight urine-drinking provides him with no competitive advantage. Oh, yeah? What about in clinches, when Marquez leans in and breathes into Mayweather's face? That alone should provide a few seconds of opportunity during which the Mexican presumably could take advantage of “Money's” natural gag reflex. Apart from that, though, the guess here is that Mayweather — even if slightly rusty from a 21-month layoff — is too big, too young (32 to 36 for Marquez, who has many more miles on his boxing odometer) and too skilled to have his much-anticipated comeback declared dead on arrival. Call it Mayweather by eighth-round stoppage, but JMM gets a nice payday and goes home with more than the proverbial pot to pee in.

RICK FOLSTAD No surprise here. Mayweather by decision. He's too quick and naturally bigger than Marquez.

RALPH GONZALEZ As magnificent a fighter as Juan Manuel Marquez is, all the urine sipping in the world isn't going to help him win against a naturally bigger and faster opponent like Mayweather Jr.  Would a huge upset by Marquez, who was shown sipping his own urine as part of his preparation on HBO's 24/7, add legitimacy to this ancient practice? This match should be very intriguing to watch but I expect a unanimous decision going to Lil Floyd.

DAN HORGAN  Mayweather is the bigger and better athlete, end of story.  His hand speed coupled with his size will be too much for the 36-year-old Marquez to handle.

GEORGE KIMBALL Historically speaking, boxers of a certain age not named Ray Leonard have not fared well in comeback fights after layoffs as long as Mayweather's, but the odds are so stacked in his favor — and forget his two fights at 135; Marquez is being asked to fight at 14 pounds above his optimal fighting weight–that he ought to win anyway, wearing Marquez down by the ninth or tenth round.  (The ongoing wrangles with the law won't make much difference; that stuff is all business as usual around the Mayweather household.) And if things aren't going Mayweather's way? What are the odds on a disqualification, anyway? If Money can't figure a way to foul his way out, you can bet that Uncle Roger will.

FRANK LOTIERZO Mayweather will win the fight. He has the size and the perfect style to neutralize Marquez. If he didn't have almost everything tilting in his favor I question whether or not the fight would be happening, despite Marquez calling him out. Mayweather will win by decision, but if he's got a referee who's halfway on his side it's not a reach to envision him stopping Marquez.

MIKE LYNCH Floyd Mayweather TKO-11. We've all seen Manny Pacquiao and Bernard Hopkins seamlessly move up in weight in recent years. But we've also seen Kelly Pavlik fail in the same endeavor. Marquez will be the smaller, slower man and lesser boxer in the ring on Saturday. He's a hall-of-famer when he hangs them up, no doubt, but I just can't see him beating Mayweather unless Money is extremely rusty or has the rib injury flare up. If Marquez gets this win, he gets my vote for the best p4per in the world.

RAYMOND MARKARIAN Let's see if Marquez utilizes the jab that Oscar De la Hoya loves to call the Mayweather kryptonite. Floyd Sr. once said that this fight will be the second coming of Gatti vs. Floyd Jr. a few years back. I do not see it being that brutal, especially with two natural counterpunchers going at it. Do not expect the size difference to be a factor either. Pacquiao proved that theory wrong and Marquez is nearly equal to Pacquiao as a fighter. Marquez will probably catch Mayweather will some decent shots in the early rounds. Zab Judah had some success attacking Mayweather early and so did Ricky Hatton. Mayweather is known to take his time dissecting his opponent. So expect him to come out somewhat cautious. If Marquez is wise he will wait for Floyd to fire first but it is easier said than done. I expect it to go the distance. And I have been feeling conspiratorial lately. The Markarian Crystal Ball sees a Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight penciled in for early May 2010. There is just too much capital in that potential mega fight for it not to happen. Make no mistake, in this game Money talks. And Money Mayweather will win this fight. Marquez’s only hope is a knockout or a landslide decision. Because if it is close, and the fight is a tossup going to the scorecards, expect Marquez to get screwed, Malinaggi style. Mayweather by decision in any way, shape, or form.

JOHN NGUYEN I think this one will be more competitive than a lot of people think, and for the following reasons: The size difference in this fight is not as great as many have made it out to be.  Floyd is an undersized welter, which is why guys like Paul Williams aren't even up for discussion.  While JMM is definitely the smaller man, let's not forget that he made his name as a featherweight, and Floyd started his career only four pounds heavier at 130. Secondly, Floyd's last two showings prior to his two-year hiatus were anything but scintillating.  He eked out a close decision against Oscar De La Hoya that was more about Oscar losing the fight than it was about Floyd winning it.  Against Ricky Hatton, he knocked out a smaller, vulnerable foe in a fight that saw Mayweather bothered by Hatton's speed early on.  Add two years to those less than sterling performances, and it's anyone's guess what we'll get. Lastly, Marquez is just a darn good fighter.  He's probably the most complete fighter in the game, even at age 36.  He's honed his craft and developed a steely toughness over the course of a career that could be an allegory to perseverance.  He's never been dominated or even convincingly beaten, and I truly don't think he will be on Saturday night.  If I'm pressed for a prediction (as I am here), I'll reluctantly pick Floyd in a close, competitive decision that has plenty of competitive suspense.  JMM is nobody's dog, and I think he'll push Floyd more than we're used to seeing.  Don't be surprised if the urine-sipping old fella pulls this one out. Nguyen's Pick:  Floyd by close decision

Aaron Tallent Throughout his career, Juan Manuel Marquez has proven to be one of the best fighters in the world and his two bouts with Manny Pacquiao have shown that he is one of the toughest. For those reasons, I don't think Floyd Mayweather will be able to knock him out, but I don't think Marquez will have many chances to lay gloves on Mayweather either. Mayweather by decision.

PHIL WOOLEVER Mayweather TKO 9 –  “Money” as only a 3-1 favorite illustrates true Vegas conservative cash concerns. Unless rust or reaggravated injuries slow him down, Mayweather slaps the publicized, proverbial piss out of Marquez, who does as much as possible against the natural size disadvantage. Bring on the Pacman!

 

 

Articles of 2009

UFC 108 Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva

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Former champion Rashad Evans meets Brazil’s venerable Thiago Silva in a non-title belt that can lead to a return match with the current champ, but first things first.

Evans (15-1-1) and Silva (14-1) meet in Ultimate Fighting Championship 108 in a light heavyweight bout on Saturday Jan. 2, at the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. A win by either fighter could result in a world title bid. The fight card is being shown on pay-per-view television.

Events can change quickly in the Octagon and anybody can beat anybody in the 205-pound weight division. Just ask Silva or Evans.

Silva and Evans are both experienced and can vouch firsthand about the capriciousness of fighting in MMA and especially as a light heavyweight. On one day this man can beat that man and on another day, that man can beat this man. It can make you absolutely daffy.

Evans, 30, is the former UFC light heavyweight world champion who only defended his title on one occasion and lost by vicious knockout to current champion Lyoto Machida of Brazil. It’s the only defeat on his record.

Silva, 27, is a well-rounded MMA fighter from Sao Paolo, Brazil who is versed in jujitsu, Muy Thai and boxing. He can end a fight quickly in a choke hold just as easily as with a kick or a punch. His only loss came to who else: Machida.

Evans and Silva know a win can push open the door to a rematch with current UFC light heavyweight champion Machida.

“A win against Rashad would put me in the track against Lyoto,” said Silva, in a telephone conference call. “That's what – what I want to do.”

When Silva fought Machida the two Brazilians were both undefeated and feared in the MMA world. The fight took place in Las Vegas and with one second remaining in the first round a perfectly timed punch knocked Silva unconscious.

“I was humbled big time, man,” says Silva who fought Machida in January 2009. “I learned a lot from that fight.  I think I can correct the mistakes from that fight, not overlooking anything else right now, but just I want to get the chance to fight him again.”

For Evans it was a different circumstance. The upstate New Yorker held the UFC title and was defending it after stopping then champion Forrest Griffin by knockout. Still, many felt Machida was far too technically versed. Evans was stopped brutally in the second round.

“I've made it a point to not – to not get distracted on what I want to do, because you know Thiago (Silva) is a very hungry fighter,” said Evans who has not fought since losing the title to Machida last May. “My focus is just on Thiago so much.  You know I don't want to overlook him, you know, not even a little bit.”

Dana White, president of UFC, says the winner of this fight could conceivably fight Machida in the near future. Evans and especially Silva are motivated by the open window.

“I learned a lot from that fight. I think I can correct the mistakes from that fight,” says Silva. “Not overlooking anything else right now, but I just want to get the chance to fight him again.”

What a prize. The winner gets to face the man who beat him: Machida.

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Articles of 2009

Ten Boxing Wishes For 2010

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As 2009 comes to a close, one reflects on what went well and what went wrong during the year in boxing. There were many highlights. Pacquiao vs. Cotto and Showtime’s Super Six tournament were part of the best that boxing had to offer. But there were some low points too therefore the industry has some work to do in order to keep generating fans. Here are some suggestions for 2010:

10. Better pay per view cards

Paying 40 to 50 bucks to watch the main event gets old real quick. Why do we have to sit through a horrible under-card to get to the main course? It’s like being fed spam appetizers before the Thanksgiving turkey. It seems that the pay per view promoters just don’t get it. Are they watching what they put on or do they only watch the “big fight” as everyone else is slowly being conditioned to do so?

9. Time to make Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fight

Okay, I understand he’s the son of one of the greatest fighters that ever lived. But he’s had 42 fights against low to mid level competition and has never managed to look spectacular. It’s time to throw the 23 year old out of the nest to see if he can fly. My suggestion is a fight against Sergio Mora or maybe even Yuri Foreman. Neither of these guys can punch. They may outbox Junior but they won’t totally humiliate him.

8. No more ridiculous Pay Per View mismatches

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Juan Manuel Marquez should’ve never been made. It was a ridiculous fight when it was announced and it was more ridiculous when it took place. Unable to bring Manny Pacquiao to the bargaining table for a third match against Juan Manuel Marquez, someone figured that pairing up the 135 pound champion against a natural 147 pounder like Mayweather would be a great idea. The pay per view generated over a million buys but the fact that millions of people were treated to an incredibly boring mismatch is what’s truly worrisome. I can guarantee you one thing about this card. The sport of boxing lost fans once the show was over and done with. Talk about short term thinking.

7. Chris “The Nightmare” Arreola shows up for a fight in amazing shape

It was painful to see Chris Arreola take a beating from the Ukrainian giant, Vitali Klitscho. The champion certainly earned his “Dr. Ironfist” moniker as he plowed his powerful shots into the former #1 WBC heavyweight contender’s face. He reddened and bloodied the young Mexican American with an assortment of weapons and foot movement seldom seen on a six foot seven inch heavyweight. Arreola was brave and unrelenting in battle. He never stopped coming forward and took chances when he could. His work in the ring at the Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles wasn’t the problem. Where Arreola let himself down was outside the ring. His unwillingness to condition himself into a finely tuned athlete cost him certain immortality as the first ever heavyweight champion of Mexican descent. Arreola has the heart and skills but it was his mental fortitude that broke down. Anyone who’s followed the Riverside fighter knows that his best weight is somewhere in the 230 pound range. It certainly isn’t at the 252 pounds he registered on the scale at the Staples Center.  Those fifteen to twenty extra pounds might have made all the difference in the world. Maybe he would’ve been a little quicker, maybe he could’ve sustained a faster pace in order to tire out the champion. In his most recent fight against Brian Minto, Arreola weighed in at a career high 263. It looks like “The Nightmare” isn’t willing to change for anyone. At this pace, the only nightmares he’ll be providing will be to the management of Hometown Buffets all across Riverside.  Just kidding “Nightmare”!

6. More respect for the lighter weights

Real boxing fans know that the most exciting fighters in the sport are usually found toiling in weight divisions south of 154 pounds. Pacquiao, Cotto, Juan Manuel Marquez, Edwin Valero, Israel Vazquez, Juan Ma Lopez, Vic Darchinyan, Rafael Marquez and countless others have been the real driving force behind this sport. It’s those great fighters that have made boxing fanatics out of casual fans. The heavyweights may get all the money and glory but it’s the little guys who make the sport shine and it’s time they received greater compensation. It’s dismaying to think that a mediocre heavyweight can make three or four times as much as the great Rafael Marquez.

5. An American Heavyweight champion

Speaking of heavyweights, two Americans tried and failed at dethroning Vitali Klitschko this year. Both Kevin Johnson and Chris Arreola did their best to wrestle the belt away from “Dr. Klitschko” but came up short since they were easily outclassed. What happened to the great American Heavyweight? Where’s our new Joe Frazier or Ali? Even a new Gerry Cooney or a Ken Norton would do at this point. I’ve got a feeling that the only way we’re going to see an American champion is if Klitschko retires. My money is on Arreola. Although undisciplined and rough outside the ring, he’s got tons (no pun intended) of natural talent. He’s without a doubt the most talented American heavyweight on the scene.

4. More ShoBox

The Showtime Cable network gave us the best boxing on TV for the price of a cable television subscription. Their ShoBox series has been a proven hit for Senior VP of Sports Programming Ken Hershman. The concept is simple yet brilliant. Match up two up and comers with great records and let’s see what happens. Sometimes the results are surprising. Many have passed the ShoBox test and went on to bigger and better things. Others have been exposed as having padded records and eventually their careers stall and take a dive.

3. More safety in Mexico so I can attend a show without a gun battle breaking out

Having lived near the Tijuana border all my life I’m dismayed at the war zone that the city has evolved into. Every day there are reports of shootings fueled by the drug war trade. Believe it or not, there was a time when Tijuana was safe and most wouldn’t have thought twice about crossing the border for some seafood and nightlife. No more. Having covered several boxing cards on Revolucion Avenue many years ago, I got a taste of just how important the sport is to Mexican fans. It’s also important to me but not that important. For now I’ll stick to covering shows at the Pechanga Casino and in the less dangerous city of L.A. I never thought I’d say that.

2. Pac Man vs. Mayweather

This is the fight everyone wants to see. Seeing how Mayweather dominated Pac Man’s arch enemy, Juan Manuel Marquez, you have to wonder if the Filipino can handle Lil’ Floyd’s speed and size. One thing is for sure, betting against Pacquiao doesn’t usually work out for me. It never has. There’s no future in it. So if the fight gets done it’s Pacquiao by TKO in ten.

1. And finally

One final wish is reserved for all the readers of TheSweetScience.com I wish you all a healthy and happy 2010. Thank you for your continued loyalty to the site. It’s very much appreciated.

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Articles of 2009

A Very Special New Year's Day Column

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It has been just over four months since Nick Charles, the play-by-play announcer for Shobox: The New Generation, was diagnosed with stage IV bladder cancer and forced to take a medical hiatus from the monthly show that has aired since 2001.

Since then he has undergone grueling chemotherapy treatments that have resulted in him losing all of his hair as he forces himself to live as normal of a life as possible. Through sheer force of will, as well as the strength and support that he receives from his wonderfully loving family and his strong Christian faith, the 63-year-old Charles has managed to keep his weight up while not falling prey to the always lingering threats of depression, cynicism and negativity.

If one was unaware that he was battling such an insidious disease, you’d never know from talking on the phone to him that he has been to hell and back. He has lost none of the inspiring energy that has endeared him to members of the boxing community and legions of worldwide viewers.

“I’m doing great,” Charles said during a telephone conversation on December 30th. “I’ve been off the chemo for a month, and the doctors have told me that I’m 80 percent in remission. I’m going to see them again in three months. It may come back, but if it takes one year, or two years, or however long, I’m going to make the most of the good time.”

As physically and emotionally wrenching as the grim diagnosis and subsequent treatment has been, even for someone as perpetually positive as Charles, the longtime announcer said a lot of good things have come from it.

Having been married three times, Charles is the father of four children: Jason, 38, Melissa, 34, Charlotte, 22, and Giovanna, 3 ½.

While Charles is not big on regrets, he is the first to admit that he wasn’t always there for his older children. For many years he traveled the world as a CNN correspondent, often putting the demands of his career above all else, including those closest to him. Nowhere was the strain more evident than in his relationship with Melissa.

Having been divorced from Melissa’s mother since 1977, Charles said his relationship with that daughter has been especially “hot and cold, all of our lives.”

His illness has enabled them to forge a relationship that has been “based on a massive amount of forgiveness and understanding.”

“This has had a tremendous healing effect on both of us,” said Charles. “My illness has had a fortifying effect on a lot of things, the most important of which is my relationships with my family.”

That also includes his first wife, with whom he has had an often acrimonious relationship over the past three decades.

“It took a long time for the scab to become a scar, but we had lunch one day and it was so great to once again see the gentle, soft sides of each other,” he explained. “The whole divorce process creates a hardness that doesn’t always go away.”

Charles is also the grandfather to three children, some of whom are about the same age as his youngest daughter. He jokes that he has a “nuclear 21st century family” because of the similar ages of two generations of children. One of the hardest things for him has been the realization that he can’t always play with them in manner in which he would like.

“The hemoglobin is the fuel in your tank, so when it’s low you can’t will yourself to do things no matter how much you want to,” said Charles. “You can’t just sleep it off or work through it. I don’t want the kids to wonder why I can’t play in the backyard with them, or kick a soccer ball, or throw them in the air.”

Particularly difficult is when Giovanna reminds her father of how handsome he is, but then innocently asks him what happened to his hair, eyebrows and lashes.

“You try to keep things on a need to know basis, which is not easy when dealing with curious kids,” said Charles.

While Charles might look like the kind of guy that things have often come easy to, the reality is that his beginnings were far from auspicious. But, he says, his often challenging Chicago childhood blessed him with the steely resolve that has helped him so much during the arduous journey he is now on.

“I had it pretty rough growing up,” he explained. “I remember the lights and the heat being shut off and eating mustard sandwiches. I went to work at 13 and always had insecurities about the future. But I always expected and saw the best in people, so when I got sick, never once did I say 'Why me?”

Since taking a leave of absence from Shobox, the outpouring of support from the boxing community has warmed Charles’s heart. For a guy that is battling for his life, he actually considers himself fortunate to be surrounded by so much goodness in both his personal and professional lives.

“I always hear that boxing people are ruthless, but I couldn’t disagree more,” said Charles. “I’ve probably received about 1,000 e-mails, and people are always following in sending their best wishes. From the relatively unknown people in boxing to many of the more famous people, there has been an outpouring of true affection.”

Charles said that the Top Rank organization has been exceedingly kind and gracious. He was touched beyond description when he learned that officials in Oklahoma got special permission to have a seamstress sew “Keep Fighting Nick” onto their sleeves. He chokes up when talking about cut man Stitch Duran giving up an endorsement opportunity so he could put Charles’s name on his outfit. He never tires of hearing shout-outs from fighters on television.

Charles has always been a people person with an inordinate faith in the goodness of his fellow man. Battling this illness has only made his already strong faith in humanity even stronger.

“Adversity is a great teacher, and it really teaches you who your genuine friends are,” said Charles. “I have a lot of friends.”

He also has a remarkable wife, Cory, a CNN producer to whom he has been married for 11 years. She is the daughter of an electrician, a self-made woman who exudes all of the warmth of her native Brooklyn. She has reinforced her husband’s spiritual base by her love, optimism and strength of character.

“If I get down, she reminds me to not get too caught up,” said Charles. “I believe in eternity, and that has put me pretty much at peace.”

More than anything else, Charles wants to get himself back behind a microphone sooner rather than later, and hopefully on Shobox. He is the first to admit that viewers “don’t watch the series to see Nick Charles,” but he is proud of the fact that he was “part of the identity” of such a popular show.

“And people love comeback stories,” added Charles. “That’s the message I’m getting from the people out there.”

In boxing the word “champion” is often overused because it pertains only to winning belts and receiving worldwide recognition for being the best at your craft. The reality is that life’s real champions have other qualities, such as the innate ability to treat people well and always make them feel better about themselves, especially when the recipients of the goodwill are in no position to give them anything back.

By that standard of measure, Charles is as much, if not more of a champion than all of the boxers he has covered during the nine years that Shobox has been on the air.

I know I speak for scores of others when I say, “Happy New Year, Champ. We hope that you are the comeback story of the year in 2010.”

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