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Current Numbers on Klitschko – Chisora : Even Odds, Odd Evens

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NO CHICKEN OPPONENT HERE – Vitali Klitschko held an open workout this week in Kiev, Ukraine, one of Klitschko’s adopted homelands. As usual, he looked to be in tremendous shape as he entered final preparations for what will probably be one of his final contests. At 40, Klitschko says he is focusing more and more on the political rather than leather-bound landscape. Win or lose, there are likely less than half a handful of fights remaining on his schedule before retirement.

The size of the average beer mug around Munich, BIG, is appropriate for the magnitude of Klitschko’s February 18th encounter with brash basher Dereck Chisora, already a virtual sellout with only around 500 seats left between the first and third elevated levels of the Olympiahalle. Tickets ranging from around forty to nine hundred US dollars are long gone. The venue will hold approximately 15,050 fans.

For many, it will be impossible to forget the ’72 Olympic terrorist horrors, which for countless Americans were an introduction to the awful new battleground. Hopefully, the fighters will bring positive vibes to help get beyond the inerasable tragedy. The prayer for peace outside the ring continues.

We’ve said by the law of probability that somebody will give one of Ma Klitschko’s finest a spanking sooner or later but Bros K have been defying such logic of eventuality for so long now it might be more appropriate to say sooner or later somebody will fight a good round, maybe even win it, against a Klitschko.

Interest in the home territories of each contestant is strong and the bout is considered an obvious major sporting attraction, around the level of a divisional championship football/soccer match.
My extremely limited observations of European wagering (“casinos”, many similar to the slots at the back of a Nevada truck stop, are in every country I’ve seen) indicates that the usual house advantage may be higher against the customer than in Vegas. Here are TSS’s odds with around a month before the bell.
Klitschko to win: 4 -1
Klitschko to surpass George Foreman’s record (46) as oldest major heavyweight title holder : 100 – 1
Klitschko to fight 3 more times (after Chisora) before retirement : 10 – 1
Klitschko to fight 2 more times (after Chisora) before retirement :   2 – 1
Klitschko to fight 1 more time (after Chisora) before retirement : almost guaranteed, 1 – 50
Klitschko’s last fight : 75 – 1
Klitschko to stay retired after announcement : almost guaranteed, 1 -33
Chisora’s last fight : 1000 – 1
Chisora to fight 3 more times in 2012 : almost guaranteed 1- 33
Chisora to stay retired after announcement : highly unlikely, 50 – 1
Vitali by boring, one sided decision: Even
Vitali by exciting, one sided decision: Even
Klitschko by KO : 4 – 1
Chisora by any sort of decision : 20 – 1
Chisora by KO : 10 – 1Better than Klitschko – Tomasz Adamek : Probable, even
Very good fight : Possible, 3 – 1
Fight of the Year : 100 -1

Klitschko to score knockdown : 10 – 1
Chisora to score knockdown : 10 – 1
Multiple knockdowns : 20 – 1

Each Man Down : 50 – 1

Klitschko to pull out with verified injury : 20 – 1
Klitschko to pull out with questionable injury : 1000 – 1

Chisora to pull out with verified injury short of arm or leg falling off : 50 – 1
Chisora to pull out with questionable injury : Impossible, after how long he’s waited through a pair of cancellations by Wlad, Chisora looks like he wants it bad enough to crawl into the ring if necessary. He deserves this opportunity. As a solid citizen, there have been reported faults and misdeeds that will not be speculated upon. As a fighter, I like his grit. While parts of his prefight antics are low class, at least he tries to back up his boasts and on occasion it looks like he’s a better sport than he acts.
Anyone who’s been to Munich can testify it’s one of the great beer drinking capitals of the world. If the big boys throw a fraction of as many punches as the big mugs are downed in historic breweries that night, the long elusive, action-filled Klitschko fight could erupt at last. A toast to punching prost.
Will “Dr. Ironfist” inject another methodical beat down until Chisora breaks down or folds one way or another as recent foes have, or can “Del Boy” get inside on the much larger Klitschko the way Chisora did against Helenius, listed at only a half inch shorter than Klitschko in both height and reach?
The answer to what kind of chance Chisora really might depend on the answer to who has fought the most fortifying fights lately. It’s pretty close trying to evaluate the trifectas of Shannon Briggs, Odlanier Solis and Adamek compared to Tyson Fury, Remigiijus Ziausys (a toss at 19-43 but at least the fight occurred on fateful 11-11-11), and Robert Helenius.
It should be worth watching, and as usual here it’s on free tv. Critics can insert their own punch line.

Estimated audience in UK – millions
Estimated audience in Germany – many more million
Estimated audience in USA – many fingers, some toeholds

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2015 Fight of the Year – Francisco Vargas vs Takashi Miura

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The WBC World Super Featherweight title bout between Francisco Vargas and Takashi Miura came on one of the biggest boxing stages of 2015, as the bout served as the HBO pay-per-view’s co-main event on November 21st, in support of Miguel Cotto vs Saul Alvarez.

Miura entered the fight with a (29-2-2) record and he was making the fifth defense of his world title, while Vargas entered the fight with an undefeated mark of (22-0-1) in what was his first world title fight. Both men had a reputation for all-out fighting, with Miura especially earning high praise for his title defense in Mexico where he defeated Sergio Thompson in a fiercely contested battle.

The fight started out hotly contested, and the intensity never let up. Vargas seemed to win the first two rounds, but by the fourth round, Miura seemed to pull ahead, scoring a knock-down and fighting with a lot of confidence. After brawling the first four rounds, Miura appeared to settle into a more technical approach. Rounds 5 and 6 saw the pendulum swing back towards Vargas, as he withstood Miura’s rush to open the fifth round and the sixth round saw both men exchanging hard punches.

The big swinging continued, and though Vargas likely edged Miura in rounds 5 and 6, Vargas’ face was cut in at least two spots and Miura started to assert himself again in rounds 7 and 8. Miura was beginning to grow in confidence while it appeared that Vargas was beginning to slow down, and Miura appeared to hurt Vargas at the end of the 8th round.

Vargas turned the tide again at the start of the ninth round, scoring a knock down with an uppercut and a straight right hand that took Miura’s legs and sent him to the canvas. Purely on instinct, Miura got back up and continued to fight, but Vargas was landing frequently and with force. Referee Tony Weeks stepped in to stop the fight at the halfway point of round 9 as Miura was sustaining a barrage of punches.

Miura still had a minute and a half to survive if he was going to get out of the round, and it was clear that he was not going to stop fighting.

A back and forth battle of wills between two world championship level fighters, Takashi Miura versus “El Bandido” Vargas wins the 2015 Fight of the Year.

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Jan 9 in Germany – Feigenbutz and De Carolis To Settle Score

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This coming Saturday, January 9th, the stage is set at the Baden Arena in Offenburg, Germany for a re-match between Vincent Feigenbutz and Giovanni De Carolis. The highly anticipated re-match is set to air on SAT.1 in Germany, and Feigenbutz will once again be defending his GBU and interim WBA World titles at Super Middleweight.

The first meeting between the two was less than three months ago, on October 17th and that meeting saw Feigenbutz controversially edge De Carolis on the judge’s cards by scores of (115-113, 114-113 and 115-113). De Carolis scored a flash knock down in the opening round, and he appeared to outbox Feigenbutz in the early going, but the 20 year old German champion came on in the later rounds.

The first bout is described as one of the most crowd-pleasing bouts of the year in Germany, and De Carolis and many observers felt that the Italian had done enough to win.

De Carolis told German language website RAN.DE that he was more prepared for the re-match, and that due to the arrogance Feigenbutz displayed in the aftermath of the first fight, he was confident that he had won over some of the audience. Though De Carolis fell short of predicting victory, he promised a re-vamped strategy tailored to what he has learned about Feigenbutz, whom he termed immature and inexperienced.

The stage is set for Feigenbutz vs De Carolis 2, this Saturday January 9th in Offenburg, Germany. If you can get to the live event do it, if not you have SAT.1 in Germany airing the fights, and The Boxing Channel right back here for full results.

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2015 Knock Out of the Year – Saul Alvarez KO’s James Kirkland

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On May 9th of 2015, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez delivered a resonant knock-out of James Kirkland on HBO that wins the 2015 KO of the Year.

The knock-out itself came in the third round, after slightly more than two minutes of action. The end came when Alvarez delivered a single, big right hand that caught Kirkland on the jaw and left him flat on his back after spinning to the canvas.Alvarez was clearly the big star heading into the fight. The fight was telecast by HBO for free just one week after the controversial and disappointing Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao fight, and Alvarez was under pressure to deliver the type of finish that people were going to talk about. Kirkland was happy to oblige Alvarez, taking it right to Alvarez from the start. Kirkland’s aggression saw him appear to land blows that troubled the young Mexican in the early going. Alvarez played good defense, and he floored Kirkland in the first round, displaying his power and his technique in knocking down an aggressive opponent.

However, Kirkland kept coming at Alvarez and the fight entered the third round with both men working hard and the feeling that the fight would not go the distance. Kirkland continued to move forward, keeping “Canelo” against the ropes and scoring points with a barrage of punches while looking for an opening.

At around the two minute mark, Alvarez landed an uppercut that sent Kirkland to the canvas again. Kirkland got up, but it was clear that he did not have his legs under him. Kirkland was going to try to survive the round, but Alvarez had an opportunity to close out the fight. The question was would he take it?

Alvarez closed in on Kirkland, putting his opponent’s back to the ropes. Kirkland was hurt, but he was still dangerous, pawing with punches and loading up for one big shot.

But it was the big shot “Canelo” threw that ended the night. Kirkland never saw it coming, as he was loading up with a huge right hand of his own. The right Alvarez threw cracked Kirkland in the jaw, and his eyes went blank. His big right hand whizzed harmlessly over the head of a ducking Alvarez, providing the momentum for the spin that left Kirkland prone on the canvas.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez went on to defeat Miguel Cotto in his second fight of 2015 and he is clearly one of boxing’s biggest stars heading into 2016. On May 9th Alvarez added another reel to his highlight film when he knocked out James Kirkland with the 2015 “Knock Out of the Year”.

Photo by naoki fukuda

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