I’m Betting on Jake Paul … To Live*

I’m Betting on Jake Paul … To Live*

The question of the week—maybe the year, maybe the decade—is simple: Can Jake Paul beat Anthony Joshua?

And, technically speaking, sure. Of course he can. It’s boxing. We’ve seen lightning strike before. Fighters get disqualified. Referees lose control. Ankles roll. Heads clash. Terry Norris once got himself disqualified twice in back-to-back fights against Louis Santana while being a far bigger favorite than Joshua is here. The sport has a long memory for chaos.

But the real question—the one that actually matters—is this: Can Jake Paul realistically get his hand raised?

That’s where things get uncomfortable for our favorite YouTuber-turned-prizefighter.

Upsets of this Magnitude Are Rare for a Reason

People love to talk about “anything can happen” in boxing. And yes, anything can happen. But over the thousands upon thousands of professional fights in history, truly massive upsets are few and far between. That’s not an accident. Skill usually carries the day.

Sometimes grit beats skill. That’s real. But that tends to happen when a six fights an eight and the eight doesn’t bring his lunch pail. Anthony Joshua isn’t an eight. He’s not even in that neighborhood. And that’s where Jake Paul’s problems begin.

Joshua was highly competitive not all that long ago with Oleksandr Usyk, one of the greatest technicians the heavyweight division has ever seen and a future all-time great by any reasonable standard. This isn’t a story about Usyk, but it’s impossible to ignore what that says about Joshua’s baseline level.

On paper, the concept probably looked like a brilliant idea. The execution, however, has to survive Anthony Joshua.

Give Jake Paul His Credit (Just Not That Much)

Let’s get one thing straight: Jake Paul is a legitimate fighter now. This isn’t 2020 anymore. He’s been a pro for six years. He trains seriously. He spars with real professionals at various levels. He takes preparation seriously and doesn’t duck the hard work.

He could have padded his record. There’s an army of guys in his weight range he could’ve beaten to death quietly. Instead, he chose spectacle. That deserves respect.

But dedication doesn’t magically erase gaps in class.

With all due respect, Jake Paul is not in Anthony Joshua’s league—not yet, and maybe not ever. And that’s not an insult. It’s just the truth.

If Paul can have a career night and Joshua can have an off night, Jake’s stock (which is already astronomically high) will skyrocket regardless of the official result. If he looks competitive for even a few rounds, that’s a win in itself.

Styles Make Fights…And This One Is Ugly

Luck doesn’t work in boxing the way casual fans think it does. Fighters make hundreds of micro-decisions every round: what to attempt, what to deny, when to take risks, when to survive. That’s the beauty of the sport.

And that’s also where this match-up falls apart.

Jake Paul does not have a style that troubles Anthony Joshua.

People talk about Paul being “faster.” He’s not. They talk about him punching “really hard.” Plenty of guys punch hard. Joshua punches really hard too, and he knows when and how to do it.

If Paul had any hope tactically, it would involve something radical. Something unseen. Something like emulating Rocky Marciano and fighting out of a deep crouch, making himself small, changing angles, forcing Joshua to operate outside his comfort zone.

But that would require months, maybe years, of secret preparation. Underground lair stuff. No sparring footage. No Instagram clips. No leaks. And even then, the question becomes:
Can Jake Paul put together 15 good minutes, in three-minute chunks, while staying off the canvas for the 24 minute scheduled distance.

That’s a tall order.

The Crack in the Armor (If There Is One)

If there’s one variable that gives Paul any margin at all, it’s this: Joshua’s chin isn’t elite. It never has been. That doesn’t mean he’s fragile, but it does mean he’s not invincible.

Paul is tough. Paul is a showman. Paul clearly has something to prove, and he hasn’t left much to chance in preparation. He believes in this, which matters.

But belief doesn’t beat experience at this level.

Pazienza, Roy Jones Jr., and Reality

This fight most likely plays out like a heavyweight version of Vinny Pazienza vs. Roy Jones Jr.

Paz was brave. Paz was tough. Paz called out greatness and paid for it. Frankly, the distance in talent that separates Paul from Pazienza is much greater than that of Joshua and Roy Jones Jr.

That’s the uncomfortable math.

Who to Bet—and Who to Root For

From a wagering standpoint, this is a pass. You’d have to lay too much money on Joshua to make anything worthwhile. The value isn’t really there.

If you’re hunting, look at props:

• Joshua by decision at +550 is interesting.
• A draw at 48–1 is the classic “peanut for an elephant” play. A technical draw, something unforeseen—this is boxing, after all.

As for me? I like Anthony Joshua. But I’ll be rooting for Jake Paul.

Why? Because it’s good for boxing. Haven’t you seen any of the sixteen Rocky movies?

If Jake Paul can land a few shots, steal a round or two, and survive long enough to make people uncomfortable, he can take pride in being competitive—if only for moments—against one of the best heavyweights of this generation.

And sometimes, in boxing, that’s the real victory.

* Title borrowed from comedian Milton Berle, commenting on Liston vs. Clay (Ali), due to the massive betting discrepancy.