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Other Than On Paper, Pacquiao-Marquez III Is A Tough Sell…LOTIERZO

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This is big fight week and the hype for the third and final encounter between all timers Manny Pacquiao 53-3-2 (38) and Juan Manuel Marquez 53-5-1 (39) is about to explode. The hook for the fight is the fact that these two have already fought two terrific fights against each other with Pacquiao officially holding the edge 1-0-1. However, depending on who you ask, Pacquiao, 32, has really defeated Marquez, 38, twice or on the other hand he’s yet to beat him once.

Many fans and writers were all over this fight before it was even signed. Yet, I never once had my interest peaked by the thought of it and now that it’s almost here, nothing’s changed. For a fight to be compelling before the fact, it has to involve two fighters where you can see a plausible way for each to win. And regardless of how close their previous two fights were, I don’t think that translates into the third one being super close or competitive. A lot has changed over the last three and a half years for Pacquiao and Marquez, with physics being at the top of the list.

What’s often been left out of the conversation regarding the outcome of this fight is, the first two bouts were fought at 126 and 130, this one will be contested at 144. Since they last fought back in March of 2008, Pacquiao is unbeaten and has compiled a record of 7-0 (4). Five of those victories have been over fully flowered welterweights and they weren’t even  close, Pacquiao dominated. Since losing a split decision to Pacquiao in 2008, Marquez is 5-1 (4). So you’d figure on the surface neither boxer should hold a significant advantage over the other this time. But you’d be wrong. The only fight that really gives us any indicator where Marquez is right now and how he matches up with Pacquiao is his bout with Floyd Mayweather two years ago. And that stands out for two reasons: 1) it’s the only bout in which Marquez has ever fought weighing more than 140 pounds (142) and 2) he was totally taken apart by Mayweather and was never in the fight.

For 12 rounds Marquez looked like a boy trying to overpower a man. Even when he did manage to get through and land on Mayweather, Floyd never changed his expression or blinked. Mayweather’s size and physical strength advantage totally shut down Marquez’s terrific fundamentals and basics. Due to the simple fact Marquez wasn’t nearly strong enough to implement or apply his wealth of experience, he resembled a church mouse being toyed with by a house cat. And luckily for Marquez, Mayweather is risk averse because it sure looked as if Mayweather could’ve stopped Marquez if he wanted to.

And that’s why I think Pacquiao-Marquez III is a hard sell. Forget about who you think would win between Pacquiao and Mayweather if they ever fight. What we do know is Pacquiao punches harder than Mayweather with both hands, he throws more punches, appears to take a better punch and looks to attack. In addition to that, we know inside Manny wants to beat Marquez not just conclusively this time, but also in a much more spectacular and memorable fashion than Mayweather did. It’s all about style points for Pacquiao and Mayweather. It’s sort of like college football before they fight. Both (2) Alabama and (1) LSU beat Florida on back to back weekends, so the natural thing to do before this past Saturday night’s game between them was to draw comparisons against Florida. And since the scores on both games were almost identical (Alabama 38-10 & LSU 41-11), the debate as to who was better LSU or Alabama took off before the game.

Well, that’s some of what will be on Pacquiao’s mind going into the upcoming fight with Marquez. With the thought being if I can’t get Mayweather in the ring, I want to beat him in the eyes of the fans or should I say pollsters. Granted, since their last fight Pacquiao has become a little less reckless and more conventional, something that Marquez’ trainer Nacho Beristain says will aide his fighter this time. Obviously it’s easier to fight someone who’s a little more predictable than one who’s all over the place and unorthodox. But how does that change the fact that it’s hard to envision Marquez hurting Pacquiao at 144? Another thing Beristain (who I think is the best trainer in boxing) said is, his fighter will be better served because Pacquiao likes to fight and mix it up as opposed to Mayweather who fights more defensively.

I guess in the main that’s true, but Mayweather wasn’t defensive against Marquez and took his liberties with him during the fight. And luckily for Marquez, Mayweather didn’t take more because he may have been stopped. Again, I don’t see how Pacquiao’s willingness to rumble is an advantage for Marquez. In fact I think it’s the opposite. The fact that Manny will really try and impose himself physically over Marquez is the reason why I don’t give Juan much of a chance to come out on top. As great as Marquez is as a counter-puncher and at setting traps, once Pacquiao starts opening up and carrying the fight, what can Marquez do other than fight for his life and try to hold him off?

When all is said and done, Pacquiao has a monumental advantage fighting Marquez at 144. So much so that it really makes it hard to foresee anything but a one sided beatdown starting somewhere by the midpoint of the fight. And those style points Manny’s fighting for will be a factor in him not showing Marquez any mercy the way Mayweather did. On paper, Pacquiao-Marquez III looks like a dream fight, but the scale will ruin the dream.

At this stage of the game Pacquiao is too big and strong for Marquez. Pacquiao-Marquez III is a hard sell because it’s nearly impossible to build a case for Marquez winning. The only glimmer of hope for Marquez is if Manny has taken his training too lightly or been too distracted elsewhere. But that’s not his MO, is it?

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Arne’s Almanac: The Good, the Bad, and the (Mostly) Ugly; a Weekend Boxing Recap and More

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Arne’s Almanac: The Good, the Bad, and the (Mostly) Ugly; a Weekend Boxing Recap and More

It’s old news now, but on back-to-back nights on the first weekend of May, there were three fights that finished in the top six snoozefests ever as measured by punch activity. That’s according to CompuBox which has been around for 40 years.

In Times Square, the boxing match between Devin Haney and Jose Carlos Ramirez had the fifth-fewest number of punches thrown, but the main event, Ryan Garcia vs. Rolly Romero, was even more of a snoozefest, landing in third place on this ignoble list.

Those standings would be revised the next night – knocked down a peg when Canelo Alvarez and William Scull combined to throw a historically low 445 punches in their match in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 152 by the victorious Canelo who at least pressed the action, unlike Scull (pictured) whose effort reminded this reporter of “Cat on a Hot Tin Roof” – no, not the movie starring Paul Newman, just the title.

CompuBox numbers, it says here, are best understood as approximations, but no amount of rejiggering can alter the fact that these three fights were stinkers. Making matters worse, these were pay-per-views. If one had bundled the two events, rather than buying each separately, one would have been out $90 bucks.

****

Thankfully, the Sunday card on ESPN from Las Vegas was redemptive. It was just what the sport needed at this moment – entertaining fights to expunge some of the bad odor. In the main go, Naoya Inoue showed why he trails only Shohei Ohtani as the most revered athlete in Japan.

Throughout history, the baby-faced assassin has been a boxing promoter’s dream. It’s no coincidence that down through the ages the most common nickname for a fighter – and by an overwhelming margin — is “Kid.”

And that partly explains Naoya Inoue’s charisma. The guy is 32 years old, but here in America he could pass for 17.

Joey Archer

Joey Archer, who passed away last week at age 87 in Rensselaer, New York, was one of the last links to an era of boxing identified with the nationally televised Friday Night Fights at Madison Square Garden.

Joey Archer

Joey Archer

Archer made his debut as an MSG headliner on Feb. 4, 1961, and had 12 more fights at the iconic mid-Manhattan sock palace over the next six years. The final two were world title fights with defending middleweight champion Emile Griffith.

Archer etched his name in the history books in November of 1965 in Pittsburgh where he won a comfortable 10-round decision over Sugar Ray Robinson, sending the greatest fighter of all time into retirement. (At age 45, Robinson was then far past his peak.)

Born and raised in the Bronx, Joey Archer was a cutie; a clever counter-puncher recognized for his defense and ultimately for his granite chin. His style was embedded in his DNA and reinforced by his mentors.

Early in his career, Archer was domiciled in Houston where he was handled by veteran trainer Bill Gore who was then working with world lightweight champion Joe Brown. Gore would ride into the Hall of Fame on the coattails of his most famous fighter, “Will-o’-the Wisp” Willie Pep. If Joey Archer had any thoughts of becoming a banger, Bill Gore would have disabused him of that notion.

In all honesty, Archer’s style would have been box office poison if he had been black. It helped immensely that he was a native New Yorker of Irish stock, albeit the Irish angle didn’t have as much pull as it had several decades earlier. But that observation may not be fair to Archer who was bypassed twice for world title fights after upsetting Hurricane Carter and Dick Tiger.

When he finally caught up with Emile Griffith, the former hat maker wasn’t quite the fighter he had been a few years earlier but Griffith,  a two-time Fighter of the Year by The Ring magazine and the BWAA and a future first ballot Hall of Famer, was still a hard nut to crack.

Archer went 30 rounds with Griffith, losing two relatively tight decisions and then, although not quite 30 years old, called it quits. He finished 45-4 with 8 KOs and was reportedly never knocked down, yet alone stopped, while answering the bell for 365 rounds. In retirement, he ran two popular taverns with his older brother Jimmy Archer, a former boxer who was Joey’s trainer and manager late in Joey’s career.

May he rest in peace.

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Bombs Away in Las Vegas where Inoue and Espinoza Scored Smashing Triumphs

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Japan’s Naoya “Monster” Inoue banged it out with Mexico’s Ramon Cardenas, survived an early knockdown and pounded out a stoppage win to retain the undisputed super bantamweight world championship on Sunday.

Japan and Mexico delivered for boxing fans again after American stars failed in back-to-back days.

“By watching tonight’s fight, everyone is well aware that I like to brawl,” Inoue said.

Inoue (30-0, 27 KOs), and Cardenas (26-2, 14 KOs) and his wicked left hook, showed the world and 8,474 fans at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas that prizefighting is about punching, not running.

After massive exposure for three days of fights that began in New York City, then moved to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and then to Nevada, it was the casino capital of the world that delivered what most boxing fans appreciate- pure unadulterated action fights.

Monster Inoue immediately went to work as soon as the opening bell rang with a consistent attack on Cardenas, who very few people knew anything about.

One thing promised by Cardenas’ trainer Joel Diaz was that his fighter “can crack.”

Cardenas proved his trainer’s words truthful when he caught Inoue after a short violent exchange with a short left hook and down went the Japanese champion on his back. The crowd was shocked to its toes.

“I was very surprised,” said Inoue about getting dropped. ““In the first round, I felt I had good distance. It got loose in the second round. From then on, I made sure to not take that punch again.”

Inoue had no trouble getting up, but he did have trouble avoiding some of Cardenas massive blows delivered with evil intentions. Though Inoue did not go down again, a look of total astonishment blanketed his face.

A real fight was happening.

Cardenas, who resembles actor Andy Garcia, was never overly aggressive but kept that left hook of his cocked and ready to launch whenever he saw the moment. There were many moments against the hyper-aggressive Inoue.

Both fighters pack power and both looked to find the right moment. But after Inoue was knocked down by the left hook counter, he discovered a way to eliminate that weapon from Cardenas. Still, the Texas-based fighter had a strong right too.

In the sixth round Inoue opened up with one of his lightning combinations responsible for 10 consecutive knockout wins. Cardenas backed against the ropes and Inoue blasted away with blow after blow. Then suddenly, Cardenas turned Inoue around and had him on the ropes as the Mexican fighter unloaded nasty combinations to the body and head. Fans roared their approval.

“I dreamed about fighting in front of thousands of people in Las Vegas,” said Cardenas. “So, I came to give everything.”

Inoue looked a little surprised and had a slight Mona Lisa grin across his face. In the seventh round, the Japanese four-division world champion seemed ready to attack again full force and launched into the round guns blazing. Cardenas tried to catch Inoue again with counter left hooks but Inoue’s combos rained like deadly hail. Four consecutive rights by Inoue blasted Cardenas almost through the ropes. The referee Tom Taylor ruled it a knockdown. Cardenas beat the count and survived the round.

In the eighth round Inoue looked eager to attack and at the bell launched across the ring and unloaded more blows on Cardenas. A barrage of 14 unanswered blows forced the referee to stop the fight at 45 seconds of round eight for a technical knockout win.

“I knew he was tough,” said Inoue. “Boxing is not that easy.”

Espinoza Wins

WBO featherweight titlist Rafael Espinosa (27-0, 23 KOs) uppercut his way to a knockout win over Edward Vazquez (17-3, 4 KOs) in the seventh round.

“I wanted to fight a game fighter to show what I am capable,” said Espinoza.

Espinosa used the leverage of his six-foot, one-inch height to slice uppercuts under the guard of Vazquez. And when the tall Mexican from Guadalajara targeted the body, it was then that the Texas fighter began to wilt. But he never surrendered.

Though he connected against Espinoza in every round, he was not able to slow down the taller fighter and that allowed the Mexican fighter to unleash a 10-punch barrage including four consecutive uppercuts. The referee stopped the fight at 1:47 of the seventh round.

It was Espinoza’s third title defense.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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Undercard Results and Recaps from the Inoue-Cardenas Show in Las Vegas

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The curtain was drawn on a busy boxing weekend tonight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas where the featured attraction was Japanese superstar Naoya Inoue appearing in his twenty-fifth world title fight.

The top two fights (Inoue vs. Roman Cardenas for the unified 122-pound crown and Rafael Espinoza vs. Edward Vazquez for the WBO world featherweight diadem) aired on the main ESPN platform with the preliminaries streaming on ESPN+.

The finale of the preliminaries was a 10-rounder between welterweights Rohan Polanco and Fabian Maidana.  A 2020/21 Olympian for the Dominican Republic, Polanco was a solid favorite and showed why by pitching a shutout, punctuating his triumph by knocking Maidana to his knees late in the final round with a hard punch to the pit of the stomach.

Polanco improved to 16-0 (10). Argentina’s Maidana, the younger brother of former world title-holder Marcos Maidana, fell to 24-4 while maintaining his distinction of never being stopped.

Emiliano Vargas, a rising force in the 140-pound division with the potential to become a crossover star, advanced to 14-0 (12 KOs) with a second-round stoppage Juan Leon. Vargas, who turned 21 last month, is the son of former U.S. Olympian Fernando Vargas who had big money fights with the likes of Felix Trinidad and Oscar De La Hoya. Emiliano knocked Leon down hard twice in round two – both the result of right-left combinations — before Robert Hoyle waived it off.

A 28-year-old Spaniard, Leon was 11-2-1 heading in.

In his U.S. debut, 29-year-old Japanese southpaw Mikito Nakano (13-0, 12 KOs) turned in an Inoue-like performance with a fourth-round stoppage of Puerto Rico’s Pedro Medina. Nakano, a featherweight, had Medina on the canvas five times before referee Harvey Dock waived it off at the 1:58 mark of round four. The shell-shocked Medina (16-2) came into the contest riding a 15-fight winning streak.

Lynwood, California junior middleweight Art Barrera Jr, a 19-year-old protégé of Robert Garcia, scored a sixth-round stoppage of Chicago’s Juan Carlos Guerra. There were no knockdowns, but the bout had turned sharply in Barrera’s favor when referee Thomas Taylor intervened. The official time was 1:15 of round six.

Barrera improved to 9-0 (7 KOs). The spunky but outclassed Guerra, who upset Nico Ali Walsh in his previous outing, declined to 6-2-1.

In the lid-lifter, a 10-round featherweight affair, Muskegon Michigan’s Ra’eese Aleem improved to 22-1 (12) with a unanimous decision over LA’s hard-trying Rudy Garcia (13-2-1). The judges had it 99-01, 98-92, and 97-93.

Aleem, 34, was making his second start since June of 2023 when he lost a split decision in Australia to Sam Goodman with a date with Naoya Inoue hanging in the balance.

Check back shortly for David Avila’s recaps of the two world title fights.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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