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THE PREDICTION PAGE: TEAM TSS Sizes Up Mayweather-Maidana 2
Everyone seems to think “Money” flashes more brilliance, fights smarter and not harder tonight in Vegas, and beats Chino by UD12, sans controversy or aberrant scorecard. Thought: wouldn’t it be something if he lost? Wouldn’t that be great? No, not because there’s enmity there. For the drama. For the change in dynamic. For the anticipation of seeing how such a confident soul reacts when the O goes. If that vaunted undefeated record weren’t there to brag about, if Mayweather got beat with no wiggle room for debate or equivocation, I think that would be great for the sport, for Showtime, who’d get a third Maidana-Mayweather fight, and maybe, maybe for the man himself. He sometimes seem like he could use some grounding.
Let’s see what other TSS keyboard tappers are thinking, and if anyone thinks Chino can be the busier guy in the ring, and do the unthinkable: force Floyd to sip from the bitter chalice of defeat.
DAVID A. AVILA The rematch between Floyd Mayweather and Marcos Maidana will be different for two reasons: 1) Floyd has figured out Maidana’s brawling style and will keep the fight at a distance. 2) Kenny Bayless is the referee and prefers that boxers keep a distance. He disdains inside fighting and hates body shots. There will not be a brawl this time. Bayless will separate them when they even get close to a clinch. Mayweather by decision.
BLAKE HOCHBERGER Mayweather via very tight decision like the last fight. He’s declining fast and losing his legs/ability to evade all opponents’ offense. That said, Maidana isn’t the guy to crack the code.
FRANK LOTIERZO Unless Floyd Mayweather has aged dramatically over the last four months, which I wouldn’t bet on, he’ll win a conclusive decision over Marcos Maidana when they meet for the second time tonight. Maidana was in the last fight but didn’t really come close to actually winning it. He didn’t show me anything over the 12 rounds that the first fight went that he has the needed tools to beat Mayweather. Compete with him, yes, but not defeat him. If Maidana is one of the rare attackers/swarmers who can reinvent himself stylistically and defeat the better skilled boxer/technician in the rematch after losing the first fight, he’ll add his name to a very short list.
AARON LOWINGER Even as one of sport’s most finely-tuned body ages, Floyd Mayweather’s strongest attribute remains his ring acumen. He’s a great defensive fighter, and is able to borrow from his 30 years of experience to make adjustments on the fly. In the first fight, even when Chino was able to pin the master against the ropes, he was rarely able to land anything clean. For Maidana to have a shot, he’ll have to find a way to unnerve Floyd and beat him at his own mental game. It’s counter-intuitive for the Argentine slugger to do anything but brawl, but if he’s smart, he’ll save some power for the late rounds. I don’t think he’s savvy enough to pull it off. Mayweather solved him by round 6 the first time out, I don’t see the second go-round ending any different. Mayweather UD-12
RAYMOND MARKARIAN Will never bet against Floyd until he pulls a Roy Jones one-hitter quitter. Floyd beats Maidana by unanimous decision and moves on to the next.
KELSEY McCARSON Mayweather by UD. I think we see something similar to the same fight this time around, except that we see Maidana a little less successful and Mayweather a little more accurate. It will be entertaining but pretty easy to score. Mayweather is probably the best second-half fighter in the sport. Once he has you figured out, you’re toast. Having gone 12 rounds with Maidana in May, Mayweather will look a lot better early in the fight than he did last time (though Maidana will still have his moments).
JOEL STERN The Mayweather-Maidana II promotion may not have generated much excitement, but Mayweather and Maidana will generate exciting rounds when they step in the ring though not enough for Maidana to earn the victory. Maidana’s jab, timing, ability to see punches coming, unconventional combinations and ability to close distance will continue to trouble Floyd regardless that Floyd has had 12 prior rounds to study Maidana. Floyd will be land the cleaner shots and at times dominate Maidana from the outside and the inside like he did for much of the later half of first fight. I expect Floyd will not be taking multiple steps straight back in this fight and will be turning off much sooner to keep the fight in the center of ring. The open question is can Maidana keep up a maniacal pace for enough rounds to earn a victory. When Maidana is fighting all out, he can still steal the advantage. The other wildcard is Kenny Bayless. Can he keep the fight clean while still allowing Maidana to work when he has Floyd against the ropes? I expect the fight to play out much like the first. With Maidana fading enough for Floyd to dissect him for much of the later half of the fight. 116-112 for Mayweather
AARON TALLENT Maidana seems to be the only person who thinks he won their first matchup. He’ll charge Mayweather again, but be will still be frustrated when the fight ends. Mayweather by unanimous decision.
SPRINGS TOLEDO Maidana looked like something Mayweather can out-speed and counter to death, but looks can be deceiving. Maidana was surprisingly effective last time because he compensates for his slower hand speed by punching with his opponent and getting chest-to-chest and throwing blind shots. His pressure is disruptive and his awkward shots from odd angles are hard to anticipate. Mayweather may claim that he doesn’t watch film, but don’t believe it. He’ll see Maidana’s susceptibility to pull-counters and he’ll feint his way in to invite a Maidana attack, then step back, throw hard ones, and circle out under Maidana’s big hooks. He better stay off the ropes and he better hope that his legs haven’t stiffened with time. I see him using space better, punching harder, and as Maidana fades late, stopping him this time.
MICHAEL WOODS I hope Mayweather loses. For the drama, for the buzz, maybe for the better of him. It seems like his ego is still so thick, that he’s so insulated from reality, that his jail stint didn’t pierce it. Maybe a loss to Maidana would. But unless he overtrained, in taking Chino properly seriously this time, if he didn’t before, and Father Time’s poisonous talons sunk in a millimeter more, we see a UD for Floyd.
PHIL WOOLEVER Have to go with the law of Vegas averages this time. Same fight as before, but easier for Mayweather as Maidana is less effective with his rushes. Mayweather unanimous decision, almost a shutout. Biggest shock could be a flash knockdown by either man. Odds of either guy stepping way up from their performance in the first fight : Mayweather 50% chance, Maidana 10% chance.
Photo credits:Esther Lin/SHOWTIME
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Canelo vs Berlanga Battles the UFC: Hopefully No Repeat of the 2019 Fiasco
If one happens to be fan of both traditional boxing and MMA, then one has a choice to make this Saturday. Canelo Alvarez will be in action at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas defending his lineal 168-pound world title against Edgar Berlanga and two miles away in a competing Pay-Per-View card, the first-ever sporting event will be staged inside The Sphere, a UFC card bearing the title Riyadh Season Noche 306.
This won’t be the first time that a boxing card featuring the red-headed Mexican superstar went head-to-head with a UFC event. On Nov. 2, 2019, Canelo Alvarez fought Sergey Kovalev at the T-Mobile and 2,500 miles away, MMA stars Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal locked horns at Madison Square Garden. Both cards were PPV. Alvarez vs Kovalev was live-streamed on DAZN; Diaz vs Masvidal on ESPN+.
We don’t know which event generated the most profit, but the way things played out, this was a symbolic win for the UFC. On this night, the venerable sport of boxing and its adherents were reduced to a second-class citizen.
The fault lay with the nitwits at DAZN. They thought it prudent to postpone the start of Alvarez-Kovalev until the Diaz-Masdival fight was finished. What resulted was an interlude that dragged on for a good 90 minutes after Ryan Garcia knocked out Romero Duno in 98 seconds in the semi-wind-up. Then came the ring walks, the National Anthems (there were three), and the long-winded introduction of the combatants. When the bell finally sounded to signify the start of the bout, it was 10:18 inside the arena and 1:18 am for the bleary-eyed folks tuning in back in the Eastern Time Zone. The backlash was fierce.
The competing shows this coming Saturday coincide with Mexican Independence Day Weekend. One might assume that this will give the PBC promotion at the T-Mobile a leg up as Canelo Alvarez is a must-see attraction within the Mexican and Mexican-American communities. However, the UFC card has something going for it that T-Mobile lacks. The venue is itself an allurement. The newest addition to the Las Vegas skyline, The Sphere has the WOW factor. Even long-time Las Vegas locals, supposedly jaded by a surfeit of architectural wonders, are mesmerized by the constantly changing light show on the exterior of the big globe. Inside, visitors will find the world’s highest resolution LED display.
Customizing the interior for UFC 306 was an expensive proposition. UFC honcho Dana White has pegged the cost at $20 million and concedes that without Saudi money it would not have been feasible. He says that Saturday’s show will be “one-off,” not merely the first combat sports event at The Sphere, but also the last because it would be too expensive to replicate. If that be true, attendees are advised to keep their ticket stubs. Years from now, they might command a nice price in the sports memorabilia marketplace.
The T-Mobile has Canelo, but The Sphere has Alexa Grasso who, akin to Canelo, hails from Guadalajara. Ms. Grasso, 31, just may be the second-most-well-known fighter in Mexico. In addition to holding the UFC flyweight title, she is an analyst for the UFC’s Spanish-language broadcasts.
Grasso will be defending her belts against Russia’s Valentina Shevshenko in the co-main. In the featured bout, bantamweight belt-holder Sean O’Malley will defend his title against Merab Dvalishvili.
The T-Mobile card on Prime Video comes with a suggested list price of $89.99 for U.S. buyers without a Prime Video account. That tab has been widely assailed as a rip-off. “It’s gouging fight fans, plain and simple,” says Kevin Iole who covered both boxing and MMA for Yahoo. (For the record, the UFC show on ESPN+ comes with a list price of $79.99, $10 cheaper if bundled with an ESPN+ subscription. The UFC folks are holding their breath that the event can be translated to the small screen without compromising the clarity of the picture. The logistics are daunting.)
The main bouts on the UFC card will be far more competitive based on the prevailing odds, but when it comes to combat sports, this reporter is a traditionalist. Agreed, that can be interpreted as an old fuddy-duddy stuck in his ways, but in my eyes boxing, a sport that rests on a far more arresting historic foundation, trumps the Johnny-come-lately that is the UFC.
Check back later this week as TSS West Coast Bureau Chief David A. Avila offers up a closer look at Alvarez vs Berlanga and some of the supporting bouts.
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Niyomtrong Proves a Bridge Too Far for Alex Winwood in Australia
Today in Perth, Australia, Alex Winwood stepped up in class in his fifth pro fight with the aim of becoming the fastest world title-holder in Australian boxing history. But Winwood (4-0, 2 KOs heading in) wasn’t ready for WBA strawweight champion Thammanoon Niyomtrong, aka Knockout CP Freshmart, who by some accounts is the longest reigning champion in the sport.
Niyomtrong (25-0, 9 KOs) prevailed by a slim margin to retain his title. “At least the right guy won,” said prominent Australian boxing writer Anthony Cocks who thought the scores (114-112, 114-112, 113-113) gave the hometown fighter all the best of it.
Winwood, who represented Australia in the Tokyo Olympics, trained for the match in Thailand (as do many foreign boxers in his weight class). He is trained by Angelo Hyder who also worked with Danny Green and the Moloney twins. Had he prevailed, he would have broken the record of Australian boxing icon Jeff Fenech who won a world title in his seventh pro fight. A member of the Noongar tribe, Winwood, 27, also hoped to etch on his name on the list of notable Australian aboriginal boxers alongside Dave Sands, Lionel Rose and the Mundines, Tony and Anthony, father and son.
What Winwood, 27, hoped to capitalize on was Niyomtrong’s theoretical ring rust. The Thai was making his first start since July 20 of 2022 when he won a comfortable decision over Wanheng Menayothin in one of the most ballyhooed domestic showdowns in Thai boxing history. But the Noongar needed more edges than that to overcome the Thai who won his first major title in his ninth pro fight with a hard-fought decision over Nicaragua’s Carlos Buitrago who was 27-0-1 heading in.
A former Muai Thai champion, Niyomtrong/Freshmart turns 34 later this month, an advanced age for a boxer in the sport’s smallest weight class. Although he remains undefeated, he may have passed his prime. How good was he in his heyday? Prominent boxing historian Matt McGrain has written that he was the most accomplished strawweight in the world in the decade 2010-2019: “It is not close, it is not debatable, there is no argument.”
Against the intrepid Winwood, Niyomtrong started slowly. In round seven, he cranked up the juice, putting the local fighter down hard with a left hook. He added another knockdown in round nine. The game Winwood stayed the course, but was well-beaten at the finish, no matter that the scorecards suggested otherwise, creating the impression of a very close fight.
P.S. – Because boxrec refused to name this a title fight, it fell under the radar screen until the result was made known. In case you hadn’t noticed, boxrec is at loggerheads with the World Boxing Association and has decided to “de-certify” the oldest of the world sanctioning bodies. While this reporter would be happy to see the WBA disappear – it is clearly the most corrupt of the four major organizations – the view from here is that boxrec is being petty. Moreover, if this practice continues, it will be much harder for boxing historians of future generations to sort through the rubble.
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Avila Perspective, Chap. 295: Callum Walsh, Pechanga Casino Fights and More
Super welterweight contender Callum Walsh worked out for reporters and videographers at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, Calif. on Thursday,
The native of Ireland Walsh (11-0, 9 KOs) has a fight date against Poland’s Przemyslaw Runowski (22-2-1, 6 KOs) on Friday, Sept. 20 at the city of Dublin. It’s a homecoming for the undefeated southpaw from Cork. UFC Fight Pass will stream the 360 Promotions card.
Mark down the date.
Walsh is the latest prodigy of promoter Tom Loeffler who has a history of developing European boxers in America and propelling them forward on the global boxing scene. Think Gennady “Triple G” Golovkin and you know what I mean.
Golovkin was a middleweight monster for years.
From Kevin Kelley to Oba Carr to Vitaly Klitschko to Serhii Bohachuk and many more in-between, the trail of elite boxers promoted by Loeffler continues to grow. Will Walsh be the newest success?
Add to the mix Dana White, the maestro of UFC, who is also involved with Walsh and you get a clearer picture of what the Irish lad brings to the table.
Walsh has speed, power and a glint of meanness that champions need to navigate the prizefighting world. He also has one of the best trainers in the world in Freddie Roach who needs no further introduction.
Perhaps the final measure of Walsh will be when he’s been tested with the most important challenge of all:
Can he take a punch from a big hitter?
That’s the final challenge
It always comes down to the chin. It’s what separates the Golovkins from the rest of the pack. At the top of the food chain they all can hit, have incredible speed and skill, but the fighters with the rock hard chins are those that prevail.
So far, the chin test is the only examination remaining for Walsh.
“King’ Callum Walsh is ready for his Irish homecoming and promises some fireworks for the Irish fans. This will be an entertaining show for the fans and we are excited to bring world class boxing back to the 3Arena in Dublin,” said Loeffler.
Pechanga Fights
MarvNation Promotions presents a battle between welterweight contenders Jose “Chon” Zepeda (37-5, 28 KOs) and Ivan Redkach (24-7-1, 19 KOs) on Friday, Sept. 6, at Pechanga Resort and Casino in Temecula. DAZN will stream the fight card.
Both have fought many of the best welterweights in the world and now face each other. It should be an interesting clash between the veterans.
Also on the card, featherweights Nathan Rodriguez (15-0) and Bryan Mercado (11-5-1) meet in an eight-round fight.
Doors open at 6:30 p.m. First bout at 7 p.m.
Monster Inoue
Once again Japan’s Naoya Inoue dispatched another super bantamweight contender with ease as TJ Doheny was unable to continue in the seventh round after battered by a combination on Tuesday in Tokyo.
Inoue continues to brush away whoever is placed in front of him like a glint of dust.
Is the “Monster” the best fighter pound-for-pound on the planet or is it Terence Crawford? Both are dynamic punchers with skill, speed, power and great chins.
Munguia in Big Bear
Super middleweight contender Jaime Munguia is two weeks away from his match with Erik Bazinyan at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. ESPN will show the Top Rank card.
“Erik Bazinyan is a good fighter. He’s undefeated. He switches stances. We need to be careful with that. He’s taller and has a longer reach than me. He has a good jab. He can punch well on the inside. He’s a fighter who comes with all the desire to excel,” said Munguia.
Bazinyan has victories over Ronald Ellis and Alantez Fox.
In case you didn’t know, Munguia moved over to Top Rank but still has ties with Golden Boy Promotions and Zanfer Promotions. Bazinyan is promoted by Eye of the Tiger.
This is the Tijuana fighter’s first match with Top Rank since losing to Saul “Canelo” Alvarez last May in Las Vegas. He is back with trainer Erik Morales.
Callum Walsh photo credit: Lina Baker
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