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PATERSON’S PREDICTION PAGE: Expert Calls on Hopkins-Kovalev

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“Nobody will ever do it five times because you know as well as I do that people get old too fast. I used to run six miles a day but now I got to make an effort for three. I can still do everything I want but I got to make appointments. Can’t do things on the spur of the moment like when you’re 20.”

Those candid words weren’t uttered by today’s elder statesman of boxing and its most distinguished defier of age erosion, Bernard Hopkins, who will turn 50 in January.

Wearing a chocolate brown suit, relaxing on a couch, muscles probably still twitching after a two mile run earlier that morning, a fighter with deluded intentions swirling around inside his head like a tornado, had just spoken to New York Times sports columnist George Vecsey. At 39, lofty mountains had already been scaled on more than a few occasions, memorably. However, one more victory, a victory which would propel Muhammad Ali out boxing’s abyss and onwards and upwards toward a shot at the near impossible, winning the heavyweight title for a fourth time, was always going to be as probable as a resurfacing of the Titanic.

Deep down, Ali knew it.

12 days later, on December 11, 1981, inside the Queen Elizabeth Sports Centre in the Bahamas’ capital, Nassau, the scene of an infamous demise for boxing’s foremost entertainer – in and out of the ring – was just as painful for the contingent of seated observers to view as it was for the great man himself to physically endure. Compared to how he moved around the ring, which was eloquently graceful and highly distinctive during the iconic decade the 60s, this Ali was almost statue-like whilst being undressed by the youthful hands of 27-year-old Trevor Berbick over the course of a 10 round points decision loss. Had he been around ten years earlier, Berbick would’ve been fortunate enough to have found himself on Ali’s payroll as a sparring partner.

In addition, three years after his final farewell, Ali was sadly diagnosed with Parkinson’s Syndrome, a disease with a much more prolonged impact than any jolting wallops he received from Joe Frazier, George Foreman, Larry Holmes, or Trevor Berbick, amongst others. It has has taken its toll to the point where he is now, for the most part, secluded to the confinement of a wheelchair.

Those words, the ones Ali, now 72, briefed Vecsey with 23 years ago, are ringing truer than ever today. Simple tasks in life many of us take for granted such as washing our faces or reaching for the TV remote control are long gone for him. Making a mere effort, now a sacrifice. Quick spur of the moment physical reaches, void.

Dear Bernard:

Hey, you. Yes, you, the youngest old man in the world.

Time to walk away into the horizon, brother. Win or lose, this Saturday against Sergey Kovalev, it’s time. Time to hang ’em darn gloves up.

If defeats to Taylor, Calzaghe and Dawson couldn’t push you into retirement, what will? Also, after those previous historic wins of recent years, you still couldn’t walk down those steps one last time. You’re stupidly getting caught up in a turbulent vicious circle – and you know it.

Time to vacate the premises.

Good luck, Saturday night.

Yours truly,

Robbi Paterson

Hopkins vs. Kovalev is a 12-round unification bout for the IBF, WBA and WBO Light Heavyweight World titles, presented by Golden Boy Promotions and Main Events in association with Caesars Atlantic City, Corona Extra, AT&T and Hortitsia Vodka. The HBO World Championship Boxing telecast begins at 10:45 p.m. ET/PT. Coverage starts at 2:00 am in the UK on Boxnation.

Prediction time – I’ve reached out and spoke to various experts and asked them for their take on the outcome. Enjoy, and please add your own, in the TSS forum.

Chris Cozzone (Fightnews.com): I’m predicting an ugly fight ending in a majority decision for Hopkins. B-Hop will put on an unpretty clinic, with plenty of tying up and complaints, while a frustrated Kovalev will try to land bombs, several of which will have judges seeing a close fight.

Matt Hamilton (ESNewsreporting.com): Most – including the bookmakers – will make Sergey Kovalev a strong favorite in this one. But for me it’s one thing to knock over less cultured, less refined and perhaps critically less proven campaigners at world level, it’s another to take out the ilk of Bernard Hopkins. Hopkins has been discounted before and whilst Kovalev presents an entirely qualitatively disparate dilemma to say Kelly Pavlik, I can’t help but assume B-Hop provides as close to a litmus test of authenticity as exists for the multitude lofty claims surrounding the Kovalev phenomenon. Kovalev is a favourite for a reason but I’m going to stick my neck on the block and predict a Hopkins win by wideish unanimous decision.

Ben Dirs (BBC Sport and author of the book ‘The Hate Game: Benn, Eubank and British Boxing’s Bitterest Rivalry’): Hopkins on a split decision.

Robbi Paterson (TheSweetScience.com): It’s going to be an interesting evening. I’m firmly in the corner of Kovalev trainer John David Jackson when he says it’s Hopkins’ fight if he dictates the tempo – a slow tempo. He’ll be looking for Kovalev to do more flowing than thinking, which just happens to be very difficult to accomplish and maintain against Hopkins, who’s style and superbly implemented counter punching approach makes many opponents ‘pause.’ See, that’s the thing about fighting Hopkins effectively; it’s about taking him out of his comfort zone. The first 3-4 rounds will be extremely crucial. During those moments, Hopkins needs to defuse Kovalev by making doubts creep into his mind. Apart from Kovalev winning by result of a one punch knockout, for me, Hopkins wins on points.

Diego Morilla (HBO.com, RingTV.com, XN Sports.com): Through the last few years, Hopkins has been able to demonstrate that boxing is not all about speed and power, and he has placed experience and ring IQ even above those two virtues, redesigning and reshuffling the pieces of the puzzle that he presents to his opponents in each one of his fights with the ability of a wizard. But against a rangy, powerful, skilled and motivated fighter like Kovalev, he’ll need much more than that. So far, few fighters have been able to land more than two meaningful punches in a row against Hopkins, or at least one with enough power to unsettle him. My bet, unfortunately, is that Kovalev will be able to execute either one of these feats (or both) to bring The Alien’s career to a halt, once and for all. Kovalev TKO 10 Hopkins.

Mikey Garcia (WBO world super featherweight champion): Hopkins by decision.

Jeff Mayweather (Boxing/MMA trainer): Interesting fight. Kovalev should win but no guarantee. He hasn’t fought anyone near Hopkins’ calibre or smarts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hopkins pull-off the upset. Kovalev by close decision.

Randy Gordon (tss.ib.tv/SiriusXM radio host): I am finding this the toughest pick I have ever had to make, that’s how even I think this fight is, despite the fact they are totally different fighters. Kovalev has the power. B-Hop has the skill. Kovalev has the youth. B-Hop has the experience. Kovalev is like a bomb, set to blow up and do damage. B-Hop must be the bomb squad. He can’t simply jump on the bomb and try to rip it apart. If he does, it will most likely detonate. He must take his time, diffusing it wire by wire, piece by piece. Can he do it? I say he can. I look for a distance fight which will be close and competitive, especially in the first half of the fight. Then, the massive skill and experience of B-Hop will take over. Rough and dirty at times, this will be an interesting fight. B-Hop by unanimous decision.

Jason Pribila (Secondsout.com): I had the honour of sitting ringside for Hopkins’ masterpiece vs Pavlik. Bernard looked old in the opening frames vs Pascal in their first fight. Kovalev won’t let him off hook. And, John David Jackson will prepare Kovalev for a “Graterford Stare” at the weigh-in. Kovalev TKO 6.

Clay Moyle (Prizefightingbooks.com and author of the book ‘Sam Langford: Boxing’s Greatest Uncrowned Champion’): I’ll go with Hopkins by decision.

Abel Sanchez (trainer of world middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin): It could end up being a great fight. I believe it is a 50/50 fight. It’s there for Kovalev to win it if he boxes, maintains distance and doesn’t get caught up in the machismo of trying to knock Hopkins out. Hopkins will school you if you are to aggressive and over anxious. Hopkins by decision.

Ben Doughty (TipTV.co.uk): While I could never write the ‘Alien’ off, I am inclined to feel that this will be a step too far for Hopkins. He has had an amazing run and his place in history is secure but we should remember that he lost fair and square to the younger Chad Dawson a couple of years ago and Kovalev is fresh, capable and dangerous. Bernard’s body of work is vastly superior with Nathan Cleverly about the most notable scalp on Kovalev’s record. But I suspect Kovalev will make Hopkins fight at a pace that doesn’t suit him and can win on points.

Jeffrey Freeman (KO Digest): This is a scary boxing blockbuster in the making! Here’s a sneak preview of coming attractions: a 49-year-old Bernard “The Alien” Hopkins gets launched from the ring by the crushing power of a real-life killer with an a**-kicking strategy, Sergey “The Krusher” Kovalev. In Atlantic City, the Russian will execute the former executioner from Philadelphia with a prophetic injection of phantom punching precision. It’s a black and white remake of Rocky Marciano knocking out Joe Louis except this “Krusher” sheds no tears. To him, it’s a dark comedy, or worse, a dirty movie. Wherever his spaceship crash-lands inside old Boardwalk Hall, the “Alien” will be writhing around in agony, but this time it’s no act. Closing credits: If the fight somehow makes it to the scorecards, the rotten tomatoes review was written and executive produced by judges Layton, Ortiz, and Sammartino. Sergey Kovalev TKO4 Bernard Hopkins.

Rudy Hernandez (Los Angeles based trainer): If Kovalev is anywhere as smart as Nicholas Walters (who knocked out Nonito Donaire for the WBA featherweight title on Oct 18) he wins by knockout. But I believe that Hopkins will find the easy way out and claim injury.

Allan Scotto (Maxboxing.com): I think Hopkins takes the decision. Much more experience and very crafty.

Sean Crose (Boxinginsider.com): Man, this one is most certainly NOT easy to pick. I said I would never go against Hopkins again, but I’m going to have to eat my words in this case. Here’s the thing – Kovalev can do more than just punch. He’s an adept ring technician. Add that to the fact that the man can literally knock a person down with no more than a jab and you’ve got a deadly combination on your hands. I see this one being stopped in the later rounds after it becomes clear the Alien can’t outsmart the Krusher and the heavy punches start to really take their toll. Kovalev by TKO, 11th round.

Leighton Ginn (Desurtsun.com): I have Kovalev. I hate to go against Hopkins but Kovalev might be too much.

Barry Jones (Boxnation pundit and former WBO world super featherweight champion): It’s a hard one to call as Kovalev’s style is suited to Hopkins. But saying that I’m going for Kovalev to win, with Hopkins looking for a way out and possibly getting disqualified.

Springs Toledo (TheSweetScience.com and author of the book ‘The Gods of War’): I’m actively recommending this fight to non-boxing fans because if gray-bearded Hopkins happens to defeat the most dangerous light heavyweight in the world, it will be an historic accomplishment. There’s a caveat though: Hopkins will have to weather early storms which will be fun to watch, but then he’ll slow the pace, maul, and make the fight an eyesore. If he doesn’t neutralize Kovalev with spoiler tactics, he will provoke him into unthinking aggression and catch him with counters. A part of Hopkins’s training regimen may be learning Russian slurs to use during clinches. I’m going with age and guile for this one; Hopkins by controversial SD or DQ.

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 289: East LA, Claressa Shields and More

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 289: East LA, Claressa Shields and More

East Los Angeles has long been a haven for some of the best fighters around if you can keep them out of trouble. For every Oscar De La Hoya or Seniesa Estrada there are thousands derailed by crime, drugs or drinking.

Boxing has always been a favorite sport of East L.A. Every family has an uncle or two who boxes.

On Friday, 360 Promotions’ Omar Trinidad (15-0-1) fights Viktor Slavinskyi (15-2-1) in the main event at Commerce Casino, in Commerce, CA. UFC Fight Pass will stream the fight card.

The City of Commerce used to be part of East L.A. until 1960 when it incorporated. It’s still considered to be part of East Los Angeles, but informally.

Plenty of fighters come out of East L.A. but few make it all the way like De La Hoya and Estrada. Will Trinidad be the one?

The first world champion from East L.A. or “East Los” as some call it, was Solly Garcia Smith back in the late 1800s. Others were Richie Lemos, Art Frias and Joey Olivo. There is also 1984 Olympic gold medalist Paul Gonzalez.

Once again 360 Promotions brings its popular brand of fights to the area. On this fight card includes two female bouts. One features Roxy Verduzco (1-0) the former amateur star fighting Colleen Davis (3-1-1) in a featherweight fight.

All that action takes place on Friday.

Elite Boxing

The next day, also in East L.A., Elite Boxing stages another boxing card at Salesian High School located at 960 S. Soto Street in the Boyle Heights area of East Los Angeles.

Elite Boxing has promoted several successful boxing cards at the Catholic high school grounds. The area is saturated by many of the best eateries in Los Angeles. Don’t take my word for it. Check it out yourself and grab some of that delicious food.

Boxing has long been a favorite sport of anyone who lives in East L.A. It’s a fight town equal to Philadelphia, Brooklyn or Detroit. There’s something different about the area. For more than 100 years some of the best fighters continue to come out of its boxing gyms. Some will be performing on these club shows.

For tickets or information go to www.eliteboxingusa.com

Claressa Shields in Detroit

Speaking of fight towns, pound-for-pound best Claressa Shields who won two Olympic Gold Medals in boxing, moves up another weight division to tackle the WBC heavyweight world champion Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse on Saturday, July 27, at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

DAZN will stream the heavy-duty fight card.

Shields (14-0) cleaned out the super welterweight, middleweight and super middleweight divisions and now wants to add the big girls to her conquests. She will be facing Canada’s Lepage-Joanisse  (7-1) who holds the WBC belt.

The last time Shields gloved up was more than a year ago when she fought Maricela Cornejo. Don’t blame Shields. She loves to fight. She loves to win. The last time Shields lost a fight was in the amateurs and that was three presidential administrations ago.

Shields doesn’t lose.

I wonder if Las Vegas even takes bets on her fights?

The only fight she may have been an underdog was against Savannah Marshall who was the last opponent to defeat her. And that was in 2012 in China. When they met as pros two years ago, Shields avenged her loss with a blistering attack.

Don’t get Shields mad.

Perhaps her toughest foe as a pro was in her pro debut when she clashed with Franchon Crews-Dezurn in Las Vegas. It was four rounds of fists and fury as the two pounded each other on the undercard of Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev in November 2016.

That was a ferocious debut for both female pugilists.

Assisting Shields on this fight card will be several intriguing male bouts. One guy you should pay special attention is Tito Mercado (15-0, 14 KOs) a super lightweight prospect from Pomona, California.

Many excellent fighters have come out of Pomona including Sugar Shane Mosley, Shane Mosley Jr., Alberto Davila and Richie Sandoval who just passed away this week.

Sandoval was best known for his 15-round war with Philadelphia’s Jeff Chandler for the bantamweight world title in 1984. Read the story by Arne K. Lang on this link: https://tss.ib.tv/boxing/featured-boxing-articles-boxing-news-videos-rankings-and-results/81467-former-world-bantamweight-champion-richie-sandoval-passes-away-at-age-63 .

Fights to Watch

Fri. UFC Fight Pass 7 p.m. Omar Trinidad (15-0-1) vs Viktor Slavinskyi (15-2-1).

Sat. ESPN+ 12:30 p.m. Joe Joyce (16-2) vs Derek Chisora (34-13).

Sat. DAZN  3 p.m. Claressa Shields (14-0) vs Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse (7-1), Michel Rivera (25-1) vs Hugo Roldan (22-2-1); Tito Mercado (15-0) vs Hector Sarmiento (21-2).

Omar Trinidad photo by Lina Baker

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Arne’s Almanac: Jake Paul and Women’s Boxing, a Curmudgeon’s Take

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Jake Paul can fight more than a little. The view from here is that he would make it interesting against any fringe contender in the cruiserweight division. However, Jake’s boxing acumen pales when paired against his skill as a flim-flam artist.

Jake brought a 9-1 record into last weekend’s bout with Mike Perry. As noted by boxing writer Paul Magno, Jake’s previous opponents consisted of “a You Tuber, a retired NBA star, five retired MMA stars, a part-time boxer/reality TV star, and two undersized and inactive fall-guy boxers.”

Mike Perry, a 32-year-old Floridian, was undefeated (6-0, 3 KOs) as a bare-knuckle boxer after forging a 14-8 record in UFC bouts. In pre-fight blurbs, Perry was billed as the baddest bare knuckle boxer of all time, but against Jake Paul he proved to have very unrefined skills as a conventional boxer which Team Paul undoubtedly knew all along. Perry lasted into the eighth round in a one-sided fight that could have been stopped a lot sooner.

Jake Paul is both a boxer and a promoter. As a promoter, he handles Amanda Serrano, one of the greatest female boxers in history. That makes him the person most responsible (because the buck stops with him) for the wretched mismatch in last Saturday’s co-feature, the bout between Serrano and Stevie Morgan.

Morgan, who took up boxing two years ago at age 33, brought a 14-1 record. Nicknamed the Sledgehammer, she had won 13 of her 14 wins by knockout, eight in the opening round. However, although she resides in Florida, all but one of those 13 knockouts happened in Colombia.

“We found that in Colombia there were just more opportunities for women’s boxing than in the United States,” she told a prominent boxing writer whose name we won’t mention.

The truth is that, for some folks, Colombia is the boxing equivalent of a feeder lot for livestock, a place where a boxer can go to fatten their record. The opportunities there were no greater than in Hot Springs, Arkansas, in 1995. It was there that Peter McNeeley prepped for his match with Mike Tyson with a 6-second knockout of professional punching bag Frankie Hines. (Six seconds? So it would be written although no one seems to have been there to witness it.)

Serrano vs Morgan was understood to be a stay-busy fight for Amanda whose rematch with Katie Taylor was postponed until November. Stevie Morgan, to her credit, answered the bell for the second round whereas others in her situation would have remained on the stool and invented an injury to rationalize it. Thirty-eight seconds later it was all over and Ms. Morgan was free to go home and use her sledgehammer to do some light dusting.

The Paul-Perry and Serrano-Morgan fights played out in a sold-out arena in Tampa before an estimated 17,000. Those without a DAZN subscription paid $64.95 for the livestream. Paul’s next promotion, where he will touch gloves with 58-year-old Mike Tyson (unless Iron Mike pulls a Joe Biden and pulls out; a capital idea) with Serrano-Taylor II the semi-main, will almost certainly rake in more money than any other boxing promotion this year.

Asked his opinion of so-called crossover boxing by a reporter for a college newspaper, the venerable boxing promoter Bob Arum said, “It’s not my bag but folks who don’t like it shouldn’t get too worked up over it because no one is stealing from anybody.” True enough, but for some of us, the phenomenon is distressing.

The next big women’s fight happens Saturday in Detroit where Claressa Shields seeks a world title in a third weight class against WBC heavyweight belt-holder Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse.

A two-time Olympic gold medalist, undefeated in 14 fights as a pro, Shields is very good, arguably the best female boxer of her generation which makes her, arguably, the best female boxer of all time. But turning away Lepage-Joanisse (7-1, 2 KOs) won’t elevate her stature in our eyes.

Purportedly 17-4 as an amateur, the Canadian won her title in her second crack at it. Back in August of 2017, she challenged Cancun’s Alejandra Jimenez in Cancun and was stopped in the third round. Entering the bout, Lepage-Joanisse was 3-0 as a pro and had never fought a match slated for more than four rounds.

Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse

Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse

True, on the women’s side, the heavyweight bracket is a very small pod. A sanctioning body has to make concessions to harness a sanctioning fee. Nonetheless, how absurd that a woman who had answered the bell for only 11 rounds would be deemed qualified to compete for a world title. (FYI: Alejandra Jimenez was purportedly born a man. She left the sport with a 12-0-1 record after her win over Franchon Crews Dazurn was changed to a no-contest when she tested positive for the banned steroid stanozolol.)

Following her defeat to Jimenez, Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse, now 29 years old, was out of action for six-and-a-half years. When she returned, she was still a heavyweight, but a much slender heavyweight. She carried 231 pounds for Jimenez. In her most recent bout where she captured the vacant WBC title with a split decision over Argentina’s Abril Argentina Vidal, she clocked in at 173 ¼. (On the distaff side, there’s no uniformity among the various sanctioning bodies as to what constitutes a heavyweight.)

Claressa Shields doesn’t need Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse to reinforce her credentials as a future Hall of Famer. She made the cut a long time ago.

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Former World Bantamweight Champion Richie Sandoval Passes Away at Age 63

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Richie Sandoval, who won the WBA and lineal bantamweight title in one of the biggest upsets of the 1980s and then, not quite two years later, suffered near-fatal injuries in a title defense, has passed away at the age of 63.

News circulated fast in the Las Vegas boxing community on Monday, July 22, the grapevine actuated by a tweet from Hall of Fame matchmaker Bruce Trampler: “Boxing and the Top Rank family lost one of our own last night in the passing of former WBA bantamweight champion Richie Sandoval. It hurts personally and professionally to know that Richie is gone at age 63. RIP campeon.”

Details are vague but the cause of death was apparently a sudden heart attack that Sandoval experienced while visiting the Southern California home of his son of the same name.

Richie Sandoval put the LA County community of Pomona, California, on the boxing map before Shane Mosley came along and gave the town a more frequently-cited mention in the sports section of the papers. He came from a fighting family. An older brother, Albert “Superfly” Sandoval, became a big draw at LA’s fabled Olympic Auditorium while building a 35-2-1 record that included a failed bid to capture Lupe Pintor’s world bantamweight title.

Richie was a member of the 1980 U.S. Olympic boxing team that was stranded when U.S. President Jimmy Carter (and many other world leaders) boycotted the event as a protest against Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan.

As a pro, Sandoval’s signature win was a 15th-round stoppage of Jeff Chandler. They fought on April 7, 1984 in Atlantic City. Chandler was making the tenth defense of his world bantamweight title.

Despite being a heavy underdog, Sandoval dominated the fight, winning almost every round until the referee stepped in and waived it off. Chandler, who was 33-1-2 heading in and had avenged his lone defeat, never fought again.

Sandoval made two successful defenses before risking his title against Gaby Canizales on the undercard of Hagler-Mugabi in the outdoor stadium at Caesars Palace. In round seven, Sandoval, who had a hellish time making the weight, was knocked down three times and suffered a seizure as he collapsed from the third knockdown. Stretchered out of the ring, he was rushed to the hospital where doctors reduced the swelling in his brain and beat the odds to save his life. This would be Richie’s lone defeat. He finished his pro career with a record of 29-1 (17 KOs).

Bob Arum cushioned some of the pain by giving Richie a $25,000 bonus and offering him a lifetime job at Top Rank which Richie accepted. And let the record show that Arum was good to his word.

A more elaborate portrait of Richie Sandoval was published in these pages in 2017. You can check it out HERE. May he rest in peace.

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