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MANNY CAN WIN THIS FIGHT

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On March 29, 2012, I published a column on this very site claiming that Manny Pacquiao would defeat Floyd Mayweather if they were to meet in a boxing match–at that time.

The illusive matchup seemed so real and so close for so long. Finally, the two best fighters of a generation (who maddeningly fought at the same weight) will finally square off and answer this question definitively: Who would win?

Today, I’ll revisit the key points in my thesis and see which ones hold up, which ones are no longer accurate (a lot can and has changed in 3 years in boxing), and who I think wins the fight. As a bonus, and since I’ll be watching this from Las Vegas’ legendary atmosphere—and the ticket fiasco was as frustrating and wild as advertised–, I’ll be providing my betting tips for fight night to make sure this piece is as lucrative for its readers as it is entertaining.

Sidebar: I’m tired of hearing the argument that this fight is “too late”. Certainly, both fighters have regressed as they approach what should be the downslope of their careers from an age perspective. But I think they’ve roughly declined the same amount. And despite those respective declines, they are still the top-2 draws in boxing, and the top-2 Welterweights in the world. Lastly, the wait should be worth it as their respective declines could turn this into a more fan-friendly affair. I digress.

For reference, here was the previous post:

http://www.tss.ib.tv/news/articles-frontpage/14332-pacquiao-would-beat-mayweather

Key Points from March 2012:

1) Floyd’s fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiao’s 4 fights vs. Marquez are not relevant comparisons. The transitive property does not apply in boxing.

Anyone who’s ever tried to prognosticate the outcome of a prizefight simply by comparing outcomes versus common opponents would be a fool. The old adage of “styles make fights” is truer than true and anything other argument would be fallacious.

It just so happens that JMM is the perfect and worthy adversary for Pacquiao (Manny’s explosive speed/offense vs. Marquez’s crisp, technical counterpunching/timing). The fact that Manny got knocked out is also hardly relevant as he was winning the fight, on the verge of his own KO, and simply got caught with the perfect punch. Sure, Mayweather handled Marquez with ease and also fits the technical counterpuncher label, but Mayweather’s speed is/was his greatest asset. Not to say he isn’t still faster than Manny (he certainly is), but he’s certainly not as fast as he was back then (almost 6 years ago by fight time).

Anyhow, the same argument could be made of Pacquiao v. Cotto. Whereas Floyd won a close and tough fight, Manny dismantled Cotto who was way closer to his prime then compared to when Mayweather fought him (this isn’t in question). Same story with Manny’s annihilation of De La Hoya compared to Floyd’s razor-thin decision over DLH (Oscar was more washed up for Manny in this example)– they simply aren’t relevant in this discussion.

It’s simple. Styles make fights, and Manny’s style poses problems for Floyd.

1) He’s a Southpaw: I don’t think there’s any merit to claims of Floyd avoiding southpaws, but lefties make you change a LOT on both offense and defense and Floyd hasn’t fought a truly high-level left-handed fighter in a while

2) Very quick puncher: While Floyd has a speed advantage, only Zab Judah could match Manny’s quick (and Lefty) punches, which did get through on occasion

3) Combination puncher (sometimes): – This is the key to the entire fight. Floyd can block/dodge/deflect/counter any single shot, but Mayweather’s programmatic counters don’t account for Pacman’s angles/combos (no sparring partner can mimic them). He’ll have an answer for Manny’s 1-2s, so Manny MUST commit to jab first.

4) Manny is a hard puncher: While Manny is not a thudding, heavy-handed power puncher like Marcos Maidana, he has plenty of pop in his hands. He may not hurt Floyd as in knock him down, but Floyd cannot get lazy and take a few arm punches like he did routinely against Maidana.

5) Aggressive, move-forward fighter: Floyd is at his best in the center of the ring and when he gets off first. Manny will engage him in exchanges and continue moving forward. He is not the plodding, rough-him-up type, but more explosive combos before resetting. If Manny can avoid counter uppercuts around the ropes and effectively moves his head when throwing, he should be able to back Floyd up routinely.

6) Unique Angles: As mentioned, there’s no sparring partner to mirror Manny’s angles. They’re unconventional, imaginative, and not replicable. Floyd’s relatively impenetrable defense doesn’t account for how he can get around/between opponents’ guard.

7) Footwork. Manny’s greatest asset has always been his footwork. His explosiveness in closing/creating distance and scoring angles is elite. Whereas Floyd can rely on his ring smarts/hand speed to win exchanges, he’s never faced someone who will both willingly exchange with him and then also reset himself in good punching position without getting reckless/lazy.

2) Manny has more ways to win since he could conceivably knock out Floyd, but the opposite is not true.

-I’m far less convinced now that Manny could knock Floyd out. Manny’s power really hasn’t come up with him through all these weight classes. He still has very hard punches that do damage, but he hasn’t knocked anyone silly in a long time. And he hit Chris Algieri with some very hard shots… but didn’t knock him out. I definitely worry about Manny’s chin after the lights out KO he suffered in his fourth fight with Marquez. Nobody is ever completely the same after a total lights-out blow like that. I’ve seen enough to know you become more susceptible to KOs, etc., but Manny hasn’t looked much different in his recent fights after the KO. He’s not much slower (no more than standard aging would produce), less tentative (OK, maybe a tiny bit), or more prone to being hurt. He’s not been really hit by a Welterweight puncher with any significant pop, but he’s taken clean blows. I doubt either fighter scores a KO, so I think the safest bet of the night is that the fight goes 12 full rounds. (Over 11.5 Rounds = -300 (Bet 300, win $100))

3) Mayweather’s comfort level in exchanges would be a weakness against Manny

Floyd is straight up programmed to be a boxer. It’s uncanny. That said, his defensive instincts/reactions aren’t as adept to weird angles that Cotto and Maidana threw at him, and most of all those which Manny will throw at him. Floyd is used to winning almost all exchanges he’s in given his prowess for both defense and counter-punching. He’s the best at both in the last 20 years. That said, he isn’t the same flawless fighter he was 5-10 years ago, and if he doesn’t connect on his initial counters, he will be facing multiple punches with both hands from weird angles. That’s what Manny does. Mayweather’s comfort level in said exchanges will leave him vulnerable to the follow-up shots.

4) Along the ropes, Manny’s volume style would bother Floyd, or at least convince judges that he’s doing enough damage to squeak out rounds.

Manny doesn’t have a smothering style like Maidana, Cotto, and even Oscar De La Hoya employed against Floyd. That said, against the ropes, Manny will rip off 5, 6, 7, and even 8-punch combinations like this:

{youtube}Fm6eMjjjaKs{/youtube}

Notice how he lands around the guard without crowding him. He puts his opponent on the end of shots to maximize power. Now, Mayweather will be very dangerous here with uppercuts. VERY. However, Manny doesn’t even need to land a ton cleanly to win this fight. Simply by looking like he’s doing damage can rack up close rounds on the scorecard in his favor. This is significant and has led to all of the closely scored fights for Floyd in the last several years.

5) Manny steals 2-3 rounds on late flurries

Similar to the previous point, the scorecards will likely come into play since this likely goes the full 12 rounds. There’s likely to be several close rounds, and Manny’s late flurries (something he does often) is likely to steal him at least 2-3 rounds. Any one of those can be the difference of a 115-113 decision going his way.

6) Floyd is a 1-and-done puncher and will be out-landed in total

Floyd needs to be first as Paulie Malignaggi kept referencing during Mayweather-Maidana 1. If he is, he demoralizes people. I genuinely think Floyd will be out-thrown by over 200 punches, and out-landed by more than 50. It’s common for him to be drastically out-thrown. It’s not common for him to be out-landed. Pacquiao can only win if this happens (which would be a byproduct of establishing a varied jab and throwing punches in bunches).

7) Floyd would need to show skills he hasn’t in a long time: standing in middle of ring and winning an inside fight, slugfest, etc.

-Maidana 1 was a slugfest. I suppose so was his Cotto fight. When in the center of ring, he owned both. Floyd’s inability to dictate where fight took place is alarming and what made them interesting fights. Pacquiao could be the one guy who can land (not even win exchanges, just land) anything significant against Mayweather in the center of ring. I actually think this turns into a slugfest, and Floyd has now proven he can handle himself well in those types of fights. He remains calm, confident, and closes the show well. This point is no longer accurate.

Important point not mentioned: Manny’s demeanor when he gets hit. If you watch any of Manny’s earlier classics with Marquez, Morales, etc…he gets really fired up when gets tagged. Whereas Floyd nearly always frustrates his opponents by completely shutting down their respective offense (see: Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and many others), and then they get wild and mentally defeated. Manny won’t do this. You’ll see when Mayweather lands flush right hands, Manny will bang his gloves together and look to return fire immediately. He’s one of those guys that needs to answer anything he takes on the chin. It’s why this fight has the potential to be a firefight.

End of the day: If Manny can establish his jab early, and continue to punch in combinations/high volumes, he will win what I expect to be a fantastic fight. I get the feeling this will be worth the wait, we’ll want a rematch, and I can’t wait to be there for it.

The betting options are:

Manny by KO, TKO, DQ: +400

Manny by Decision: +400

Manny to win: +160

Floyd by KO, TKO, DQ: +500

Floyd by Decision: -130

Floyd to win: -200

The most sensible bet would be to bet BOTH Manny by KO and Manny by Decision. While I think Decision is the far more likely scenario, betting $100 on both would return a $200 profit combined if Manny wins (regardless of how). If you just Bet on Manny winning, $200 investment only nets the bettor $120 in profit.

If you do like Floyd, I think the bet is to pick him by KO at +500. He should NOT be a 2-to-1 favorite, but I can definitely see a scenario where he catches Manny flush with counter uppercuts and right hands and potentially stops Manny.

Bottom line, this is a pick-em fight, and at +160, Manny is the better bet.

The Flurry:

-Gennady “GGG” Golovkin is the best fighter in boxing P4P. The only one who can give him a good fight (and possibly beat him) is Andre Ward. I expect we see that fight in 2016 despite Ward’s weight advantage. Kovalev is in top-10 for sure. As HBO’s cornerstones, those are great building blocks. Both are must-see TV for the hardcore fans… but is that enough?

-PBC is GREAT (so far) for boxing, and makes me happy to hear casual/non-fans talking about it. It’ll be interesting to see if Haymon tries to make it more like a “league” than a TV series, which seems to be the case. He could unify belts for real, and again that would be tremendous for boxing. If good guys keep fighting good guys (assuming you don’t have to be a “Haymon Guy” to fight in PBC), we don’t have these Manny-Floyd scenarios in the future. But will the Roc Nation guys be allowed on cards? Regardless, competition is good for business. HBO will need to continue to step up their games, adapt, or be left in the dust. That’s a good thing for fans as streaming media continues its takeover of media consumption in homes.

-Unless Adrien Broner takes major leaps forward technically, he’ll never be the #1 guy at 140/147. Less of a comment on him than a comment on the depth of superstar-level talent there (Crawford is fantastic, Matthyse a lurking threat, Garcia looks legit but is untested, Mikey Garcia is coming, Porter/Brook/Khan are all championship material, and even guys like Devon Alexander are tough outs).

-Hope to see Tim Bradley soon, he’s always entertaining and a top 10 P4P fighter.

-If Matthysse-Provodnikov doesn’t win FOY, it’s because Mayweather-Pacquiao will.

Photo From Will Hart/HBO

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 282: Ryan’s Song, Golden Boy in Fresno and More

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Don’t call it an upset.

Days after Ryan Garcia proved the experts wrong, those same experts are re-tooling their evaluation processes.

It’s mind-boggling to me that 95 percent thought Garcia had no chance. Hear me out.

First, Garcia and Haney fought six times as amateurs with each winning three. But this time with no head gear and smaller gloves, Garcia had to have at least a 50/50 chance of winning. He is faster and a more powerful puncher.

Facts.

Haney is a wonderful boxer with smooth, almost artistic movements. But history has taught us power and speed like Garcia’s can’t be discounted. Think way back to legendary fighters like Willie Pep and Sandy Sadler. All that excellent defensive skill could not prevent Sadler from beating Pep in three of their four meetings.

Power has always been an equalizer against boxing skill.

Ben Lira, one of the wisest and most experienced trainers in Southern California, always professed knockout power was the greatest equalizer in a fight. “You can be behind for nine rounds and one punch can change the outcome,” he said.

Another weird theory spreading before the fight was that Garcia would quit in the fight. That was a puzzling one. Getting stopped by a perfect body shot is not quitting. And that punch came from Gervonta “Tank” Davis who can really crack.

So how did Garcia do it?

In the opening round Ryan Garcia timed Devin Haney’s jab and countered with a snapping left hook that rattled and wobbled the super lightweight champion. After that, Garcia forced Haney to find another game plan.

Garcia and trainer Derrick James must have worked hours on that move.

I must confess that I first saw Garcia’s ability many years ago when he was around 11 or 12. So I do have an advantage regarding his talent. A few things I noticed even back then were his speed and power. Also, that others resented his talent but respected him. He was the guy with everything: talent and looks.

And that brings resentment.

Recently I saw him and his crew rapping a song on social media. Now he’s got a song. Next thing you know Hollywood will be calling and he’ll be in the movies. It’s happened before with fighters such as Art Aragon, the first Golden Boy in the 50s. He was dating movie stars and getting involved with starlets all over Hollywood.

Is history repeating itself or is Garcia creating a new era for boxing?

Since 2016 people claimed he was just a social media creation. Now, after his win over Devin Haney a former undisputed lightweight champion and the WBC super lightweight titleholder, the boxer from the high desert area of Victorville has become one of the highest paid fighters in the world.

Ryan Garcia has entered a new dimension.

Golden Boy Season

After several down years the Los Angeles-based company Golden Boy Promotions suddenly is cracking the whip in 2024.

Avila

Avila

Vergil Ortiz Jr. (20-0, 20 KOs) returns to the ring and faces Puerto Rico’s Thomas Dulorme (26-6-1, 17 KOs) a welterweight gatekeeper who lost to Jaron “Boots” Ennis and Eimantas Stanionis. They meet as super welterweights in the co-main event at Save Mart Arena in Fresno, Calif. on Saturday, April 27. DAZN will stream the Golden Boy Promotions card live.

It’s a quick return to action for Ortiz who is still adjusting to the new weight division. His last fight three months ago ended in less than one round in Las Vegas. It was cut short by an antsy referee and left Ortiz wanting more after more than a year of inactivity in the prize ring.

Ortiz has all the weapons.

Also, Northern California’s Jose Carlos Ramirez (28-1, 18 KOs) meets Cuba’s Rances Barthelemy (30-2-1, 15 KOs) in a welterweight affair set for 12 rounds.

It’s difficult to believe that former super lightweight titlist Ramirez has been written off by fans after only one loss. That was several years ago against Scotland’s Josh Taylor. One loss does not mean the end of a career.

“My goal is to get back on top and to get all those belts back. I still feel like I am one of the best 140-pounders in the division,” said Ramirez who lives in nearby Avenal, Calif.

An added major attraction features Marlen Esparza in a unification rematch against Gabriela “La Chucky” Alaniz for the WBA, WBC, WBO flyweight titles. Their first fight was

a controversial win by Esparza that saw one judge give her nine of 10 rounds in a very close fight. Those Texas judges.

In a match that could steal the show, Oscar Duarte (26-2-1, 21 KOs) faces former world champion Jojo Diaz (33-5-1, 15 KOs) in a lightweight match.

Munguia and Canelo

Don’t sleep on this match.

Its current Golden Boy fighter Jaime Munguia facing former Golden Boy fighter Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in a battle between Mexico’s greatest sluggers next week at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on May 4.

“I think Jaime Munguia is going to do something special in the ring,” said Oscar De La Hoya, the CEO for Golden Boy.

Tijuana’s Munguia showed up at the Wild Card Boxing gym in Hollywood where a throng of media from Mexico and the US met him.

Munguia looked confident and happy about his opportunity to fight great Canelo.

“It’s a hard fight,” said Munguia. “Truth is, its big for Mexico and not only for Mexicans but for boxing.”

Fights to Watch

Fri. DAZN 6 p.m. Yoeniz Tellez (7-0) vs Joseph Jackson (19-0).

Sat. DAZN 9:30 a.m. Peter McGrail (8-1) vs Marc Leach (18-3-1); Beatriz Ferreira (4-0) vs Yanina Del Carmen 14-3).

Sat. DAZN 5 p.m. Vergil Ortiz (20-0) vs Thomas Dulorme (26-6-1); Jose Carlos Ramirez (28-1) vs Rances Barthelemy (30-2-1); Marlen Esparza (14-1) vs Gabriela Alaniz (14-1).

Photo credit: Cris Esqueda / Golden Boy Promotions

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Ramon Cardenas Channels Micky Ward and KOs Eduardo Ramirez on ProBox

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The Wednesday night bi-monthly series of fights on the ProBox TV platform is the best deal in boxing; the livestream is free with no strings attached! Tonight’s episode was headlined by a super bantamweight match between San Antonio’s Ramon Cardenas and Eduardo Ramirez who brought a caravan of rooters from his hometown in Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico.

Cardenas, coached by Joel Diaz, entered the contest ranked #4 by the WBA. He was expected to handle Ramirez with little difficulty, but this was a close, tactical fight through eight frames when lightning struck in the form of a left hook to the liver from Cardenas. Ramirez went down on one knee and wasn’t able to beat the count. It was as if Cardenas summoned the ghost of Micky Ward who had a penchant for terminating fights with the same punch that arrived out of the blue.

The official time was 1:37 of round nine. Cardenas improved to 25-1 with his14th win inside the distance. Ramirez, who was stopped in the opening round by Nick “Wrecking” Ball in London in his lone previous fight outside Mexico, falls to 23-3-3.

Co-Feature

In an upset, Tijuana super welterweight Damian Sosa won a split decision over previously undefeated Marques Valle, a local area fighter who was stepping up in class in his first 10-round go. Sosa was the aggressor, repeatedly backing his taller opponent into the ropes where Valle was unable to get good leverage behind his punches.

The 25-year-old Valle, managed by the influential David McWater, was the house fighter. This was his 10th appearance in this building. He brought a 10-0 (7) record and was hoping to emulate the success of his younger brother Dominic Valle who scored a second-round stoppage of his opponent in this ring two weeks ago, improving to 9-0. But Sosa, who brought a 24-2 record, proved to be a bridge too high.

The judges had it 97-93 and 96-94 for the Tijuana invader and a disgraceful 98-92 for the house fighter.

Also

In a fight whose abrupt ending would be echoed by the main event, 34-year-old SoCal featherweight Ronny Rios, now training in Las Vegas, returned to the ring after a 22-month hiatus and scored a fifth-round stoppage over Nicolas Polanco of the Dominican Republic.

A three-punch combo climaxed by a left hook to the liver took the breath out of Polanco who slumped to his knees and was counted out. A two-time world title challenger, Rios advanced to 34-4 (17 KOs). Polanco, 34, declined to 21-6-1. The official time was 0:54 of round five.

The next ProBox show (Wednesday, May 8) will have an international cast with fighters from Kazakhstan, Japan, Mongolia, and the United Kingdom. In the main event, Liverpool’s Robbie Davies Jr will make his U.S. debut against the California-based Kazakh Sergey Lipinets.

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Haney-Garcia Redux with the Focus on Harvey Dock

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Saturday’s skirmish between Ryan Garcia and WBC super lightweight champion Devin Haney was a messy affair, and yet a hugely entertaining fight fused with great drama. In the aftermath, Garcia and Haney were celebrated – the former for fooling all the experts and the latter for his gallant performance in a losing effort – but there were only brickbats for the third man in the ring, referee Harvey Dock.

Devin Haney was plainly ahead heading into the seventh frame when there was a sudden turnabout when Garcia put him on the canvas with his vaunted left hook. Moments later, Dock deducted a point from Garcia for a late punch coming out of a break. The deduction forced a temporary cease-fire that gave Haney a few precious seconds to regain his faculties. Before the round was over, Haney was on the deck twice more but these were ruled slips.

The deduction, which effectively negated the knockdown, struck many as too heavy-handed as Dock hadn’t previously issued a warning for this infraction. Moreover, many thought he could have taken a point away from Haney for excessive clinching. As for Haney’s second and third trips to the canvas in round seven, they struck this reporter – watching at home – as borderline, sufficient to give referee Dock the benefit of the doubt.

In a post-fight interview, Ryan Garcia faulted the referee for denying him the satisfaction of a TKO. “At the end of the day, Harvey Dock, I think he was tripping,” said Garcia. “He could have stopped that fight.”

Those that played the rounds proposition, placing their coin on the “under,” undoubtedly felt the same way.

The internet lit up with comments assailing Dock’s competence and/or his character. Some of the ponderings were whimsical, but they were swamped by the scurrilous screeching of dolts who find a conspiracy under every rock.

Stephen A. Smith, reputedly America’s highest-paid TV sports personality, was among those that felt a need to weigh-in: “This referee is absolutely terrible….Unreal! Horrible officiating,” tweeted Stephen A whose primary area of expertise is basketball.

Harvey Dock

Dock fought as an amateur and had one professional fight, winning a four-round decision over a fellow novice on a show at a non-gaming resort in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania. He says that as an amateur he was merely average, but he was better than that, a New Jersey and regional amateur champion in 1993 and 1994 while a student New Jersey’s Essex County Community College where he majored in journalism.

A passionate fan of Sugar Ray Leonard, he started officiating amateur fights in 1998 and six years later, at age 32, had his first documented action at the professional level, working low-level cards in New Jersey. The top boxing referees, to a far greater extent than the top judges, had long apprenticeships, having worked their way up from the boonies and Dock is no exception.

Per boxrec, Haney vs Garcia was Harvey Dock’s 364th assignment in the pros and his forty-second world title fight. Some of those title fights were title in name only, they weren’t even main events, but, bit by bit, more lucrative offerings started coming his way.

On May 13, 2023, Dock worked his first fights in Nevada, a 4-rounder and then a 12-rounder on a card at the Cosmopolitan topped by the 140-pound title fight between Rolly Romero and Ismael Barroso. It was the first time that this reporter got to watch Dock in the flesh.

Ironically (in hindsight), the card would be remembered for the actions of a referee, in this case Tony Weeks who handled the main event. Barroso was winning the fight on all three cards when Weeks stepped in and waived it off in the ninth round after Romero cornered Barroso against the ropes and let loose a barrage of punches, none of which landed cleanly. Few “premature stoppages” were ever as garishly, nay ghoulishly, premature.

With all the brickbats raining down on Weeks, I felt a need to tamp down the noise by diverting attention away from Tony Weeks and toward Harvey Dock and took to the TSS Forum to share my thoughts. Referencing the 12-rounder, a robust junior welterweight affair between Batyr Akhmedov and Kenneth Sims Jr, I noted that Dock’s Las Vegas debut went smoothly. He glided effortlessly around the ring, making him inconspicuous, the mark of a good referee. (This post ran on May 15, two days after the fight.)

Folks at the Nevada State Athletic Commission were also paying attention. Dock was back in Las Vegas the following week to referee the lightweight title fight between Devin Haney and Vasyl Lomachenko and before the year was out, he would be tabbed to referee the biggest non-heavyweight fight of the year, the July 29 match in Las Vegas between Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr.

The Haney-Garcia fight wasn’t Harvey Dock’s best hour, I’ll concede that, but a closer look at his full body of work informs us that he is an outstanding referee.

While the Haney-Garcia bout was in progress, WBC president Mauricio Sulaiman threw everyone a curve ball, tweeting on “X” that Devin Haney would keep his title if he lost the fight. Everyone, including the TV commentators, was under the impression that the title would become vacant in the event that Haney lost.

Sulaiman cited the precedent of Corrales-Castillo II.

FYI: The Corrales-Castillo rematch, originally scheduled for June 3, 2005 and aborted on the day prior when Castillo failed to make weight, finally came off on Oct. 8 of that year, notwithstanding the fact that Castillo failed to make weight once again, scaling three-and-a-half pounds above the lightweight limit. He knocked out Corrales in the fourth round with a left hook that Las Vegas Review-Journal boxing writer Kevin Iole, alluding to the movie “Blazing Saddles,” described as Mongo-esque (translation: the punch would have knocked out a horse). After initially insisting on a rubber match, which had scant chance of happening, WBC president Jose Sulaiman, Mauricio’s late father, ruled that Corrales could keep his title.

Whether or not you agree with Mauricio Sulaiman’s rationale, the timing of his announcement was certainly awkward.

Haney’s mandatory is Spanish southpaw Sandor Martin (42-3, 15 KOs), a cutie best known for his 2021 upset of Mikey Garcia. A bout between Haney and Martin has the earmarks of a dull fight.

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