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MANNY CAN WIN THIS FIGHT

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On March 29, 2012, I published a column on this very site claiming that Manny Pacquiao would defeat Floyd Mayweather if they were to meet in a boxing match–at that time.

The illusive matchup seemed so real and so close for so long. Finally, the two best fighters of a generation (who maddeningly fought at the same weight) will finally square off and answer this question definitively: Who would win?

Today, I’ll revisit the key points in my thesis and see which ones hold up, which ones are no longer accurate (a lot can and has changed in 3 years in boxing), and who I think wins the fight. As a bonus, and since I’ll be watching this from Las Vegas’ legendary atmosphere—and the ticket fiasco was as frustrating and wild as advertised–, I’ll be providing my betting tips for fight night to make sure this piece is as lucrative for its readers as it is entertaining.

Sidebar: I’m tired of hearing the argument that this fight is “too late”. Certainly, both fighters have regressed as they approach what should be the downslope of their careers from an age perspective. But I think they’ve roughly declined the same amount. And despite those respective declines, they are still the top-2 draws in boxing, and the top-2 Welterweights in the world. Lastly, the wait should be worth it as their respective declines could turn this into a more fan-friendly affair. I digress.

For reference, here was the previous post:

http://www.tss.ib.tv/news/articles-frontpage/14332-pacquiao-would-beat-mayweather

Key Points from March 2012:

1) Floyd’s fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiao’s 4 fights vs. Marquez are not relevant comparisons. The transitive property does not apply in boxing.

Anyone who’s ever tried to prognosticate the outcome of a prizefight simply by comparing outcomes versus common opponents would be a fool. The old adage of “styles make fights” is truer than true and anything other argument would be fallacious.

It just so happens that JMM is the perfect and worthy adversary for Pacquiao (Manny’s explosive speed/offense vs. Marquez’s crisp, technical counterpunching/timing). The fact that Manny got knocked out is also hardly relevant as he was winning the fight, on the verge of his own KO, and simply got caught with the perfect punch. Sure, Mayweather handled Marquez with ease and also fits the technical counterpuncher label, but Mayweather’s speed is/was his greatest asset. Not to say he isn’t still faster than Manny (he certainly is), but he’s certainly not as fast as he was back then (almost 6 years ago by fight time).

Anyhow, the same argument could be made of Pacquiao v. Cotto. Whereas Floyd won a close and tough fight, Manny dismantled Cotto who was way closer to his prime then compared to when Mayweather fought him (this isn’t in question). Same story with Manny’s annihilation of De La Hoya compared to Floyd’s razor-thin decision over DLH (Oscar was more washed up for Manny in this example)– they simply aren’t relevant in this discussion.

It’s simple. Styles make fights, and Manny’s style poses problems for Floyd.

1) He’s a Southpaw: I don’t think there’s any merit to claims of Floyd avoiding southpaws, but lefties make you change a LOT on both offense and defense and Floyd hasn’t fought a truly high-level left-handed fighter in a while

2) Very quick puncher: While Floyd has a speed advantage, only Zab Judah could match Manny’s quick (and Lefty) punches, which did get through on occasion

3) Combination puncher (sometimes): – This is the key to the entire fight. Floyd can block/dodge/deflect/counter any single shot, but Mayweather’s programmatic counters don’t account for Pacman’s angles/combos (no sparring partner can mimic them). He’ll have an answer for Manny’s 1-2s, so Manny MUST commit to jab first.

4) Manny is a hard puncher: While Manny is not a thudding, heavy-handed power puncher like Marcos Maidana, he has plenty of pop in his hands. He may not hurt Floyd as in knock him down, but Floyd cannot get lazy and take a few arm punches like he did routinely against Maidana.

5) Aggressive, move-forward fighter: Floyd is at his best in the center of the ring and when he gets off first. Manny will engage him in exchanges and continue moving forward. He is not the plodding, rough-him-up type, but more explosive combos before resetting. If Manny can avoid counter uppercuts around the ropes and effectively moves his head when throwing, he should be able to back Floyd up routinely.

6) Unique Angles: As mentioned, there’s no sparring partner to mirror Manny’s angles. They’re unconventional, imaginative, and not replicable. Floyd’s relatively impenetrable defense doesn’t account for how he can get around/between opponents’ guard.

7) Footwork. Manny’s greatest asset has always been his footwork. His explosiveness in closing/creating distance and scoring angles is elite. Whereas Floyd can rely on his ring smarts/hand speed to win exchanges, he’s never faced someone who will both willingly exchange with him and then also reset himself in good punching position without getting reckless/lazy.

2) Manny has more ways to win since he could conceivably knock out Floyd, but the opposite is not true.

-I’m far less convinced now that Manny could knock Floyd out. Manny’s power really hasn’t come up with him through all these weight classes. He still has very hard punches that do damage, but he hasn’t knocked anyone silly in a long time. And he hit Chris Algieri with some very hard shots… but didn’t knock him out. I definitely worry about Manny’s chin after the lights out KO he suffered in his fourth fight with Marquez. Nobody is ever completely the same after a total lights-out blow like that. I’ve seen enough to know you become more susceptible to KOs, etc., but Manny hasn’t looked much different in his recent fights after the KO. He’s not much slower (no more than standard aging would produce), less tentative (OK, maybe a tiny bit), or more prone to being hurt. He’s not been really hit by a Welterweight puncher with any significant pop, but he’s taken clean blows. I doubt either fighter scores a KO, so I think the safest bet of the night is that the fight goes 12 full rounds. (Over 11.5 Rounds = -300 (Bet 300, win $100))

3) Mayweather’s comfort level in exchanges would be a weakness against Manny

Floyd is straight up programmed to be a boxer. It’s uncanny. That said, his defensive instincts/reactions aren’t as adept to weird angles that Cotto and Maidana threw at him, and most of all those which Manny will throw at him. Floyd is used to winning almost all exchanges he’s in given his prowess for both defense and counter-punching. He’s the best at both in the last 20 years. That said, he isn’t the same flawless fighter he was 5-10 years ago, and if he doesn’t connect on his initial counters, he will be facing multiple punches with both hands from weird angles. That’s what Manny does. Mayweather’s comfort level in said exchanges will leave him vulnerable to the follow-up shots.

4) Along the ropes, Manny’s volume style would bother Floyd, or at least convince judges that he’s doing enough damage to squeak out rounds.

Manny doesn’t have a smothering style like Maidana, Cotto, and even Oscar De La Hoya employed against Floyd. That said, against the ropes, Manny will rip off 5, 6, 7, and even 8-punch combinations like this:

{youtube}Fm6eMjjjaKs{/youtube}

Notice how he lands around the guard without crowding him. He puts his opponent on the end of shots to maximize power. Now, Mayweather will be very dangerous here with uppercuts. VERY. However, Manny doesn’t even need to land a ton cleanly to win this fight. Simply by looking like he’s doing damage can rack up close rounds on the scorecard in his favor. This is significant and has led to all of the closely scored fights for Floyd in the last several years.

5) Manny steals 2-3 rounds on late flurries

Similar to the previous point, the scorecards will likely come into play since this likely goes the full 12 rounds. There’s likely to be several close rounds, and Manny’s late flurries (something he does often) is likely to steal him at least 2-3 rounds. Any one of those can be the difference of a 115-113 decision going his way.

6) Floyd is a 1-and-done puncher and will be out-landed in total

Floyd needs to be first as Paulie Malignaggi kept referencing during Mayweather-Maidana 1. If he is, he demoralizes people. I genuinely think Floyd will be out-thrown by over 200 punches, and out-landed by more than 50. It’s common for him to be drastically out-thrown. It’s not common for him to be out-landed. Pacquiao can only win if this happens (which would be a byproduct of establishing a varied jab and throwing punches in bunches).

7) Floyd would need to show skills he hasn’t in a long time: standing in middle of ring and winning an inside fight, slugfest, etc.

-Maidana 1 was a slugfest. I suppose so was his Cotto fight. When in the center of ring, he owned both. Floyd’s inability to dictate where fight took place is alarming and what made them interesting fights. Pacquiao could be the one guy who can land (not even win exchanges, just land) anything significant against Mayweather in the center of ring. I actually think this turns into a slugfest, and Floyd has now proven he can handle himself well in those types of fights. He remains calm, confident, and closes the show well. This point is no longer accurate.

Important point not mentioned: Manny’s demeanor when he gets hit. If you watch any of Manny’s earlier classics with Marquez, Morales, etc…he gets really fired up when gets tagged. Whereas Floyd nearly always frustrates his opponents by completely shutting down their respective offense (see: Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and many others), and then they get wild and mentally defeated. Manny won’t do this. You’ll see when Mayweather lands flush right hands, Manny will bang his gloves together and look to return fire immediately. He’s one of those guys that needs to answer anything he takes on the chin. It’s why this fight has the potential to be a firefight.

End of the day: If Manny can establish his jab early, and continue to punch in combinations/high volumes, he will win what I expect to be a fantastic fight. I get the feeling this will be worth the wait, we’ll want a rematch, and I can’t wait to be there for it.

The betting options are:

Manny by KO, TKO, DQ: +400

Manny by Decision: +400

Manny to win: +160

Floyd by KO, TKO, DQ: +500

Floyd by Decision: -130

Floyd to win: -200

The most sensible bet would be to bet BOTH Manny by KO and Manny by Decision. While I think Decision is the far more likely scenario, betting $100 on both would return a $200 profit combined if Manny wins (regardless of how). If you just Bet on Manny winning, $200 investment only nets the bettor $120 in profit.

If you do like Floyd, I think the bet is to pick him by KO at +500. He should NOT be a 2-to-1 favorite, but I can definitely see a scenario where he catches Manny flush with counter uppercuts and right hands and potentially stops Manny.

Bottom line, this is a pick-em fight, and at +160, Manny is the better bet.

The Flurry:

-Gennady “GGG” Golovkin is the best fighter in boxing P4P. The only one who can give him a good fight (and possibly beat him) is Andre Ward. I expect we see that fight in 2016 despite Ward’s weight advantage. Kovalev is in top-10 for sure. As HBO’s cornerstones, those are great building blocks. Both are must-see TV for the hardcore fans… but is that enough?

-PBC is GREAT (so far) for boxing, and makes me happy to hear casual/non-fans talking about it. It’ll be interesting to see if Haymon tries to make it more like a “league” than a TV series, which seems to be the case. He could unify belts for real, and again that would be tremendous for boxing. If good guys keep fighting good guys (assuming you don’t have to be a “Haymon Guy” to fight in PBC), we don’t have these Manny-Floyd scenarios in the future. But will the Roc Nation guys be allowed on cards? Regardless, competition is good for business. HBO will need to continue to step up their games, adapt, or be left in the dust. That’s a good thing for fans as streaming media continues its takeover of media consumption in homes.

-Unless Adrien Broner takes major leaps forward technically, he’ll never be the #1 guy at 140/147. Less of a comment on him than a comment on the depth of superstar-level talent there (Crawford is fantastic, Matthyse a lurking threat, Garcia looks legit but is untested, Mikey Garcia is coming, Porter/Brook/Khan are all championship material, and even guys like Devon Alexander are tough outs).

-Hope to see Tim Bradley soon, he’s always entertaining and a top 10 P4P fighter.

-If Matthysse-Provodnikov doesn’t win FOY, it’s because Mayweather-Pacquiao will.

Photo From Will Hart/HBO

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Arne’s Almanac: The First BWAA Dinner Was Quite the Shindig

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The first annual dinner of the Boxing Writers Association of America was staged on April 25, 1926 in the grand ballroom of New York’s Hotel Astor, an edifice that rivaled the original Waldorf Astoria as the swankiest hotel in the city. Back then, the organization was known as the Boxing Writers Association of Greater New York.

The ballroom was configured to hold 1200 for the banquet which was reportedly oversubscribed. Among those listed as agreeing to attend were the governors of six states (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Maryland) and the mayors of 10 of America’s largest cities.

In 1926, radio was in its infancy and the digital age was decades away (and inconceivable). So, every journalist who regularly covered boxing was a newspaper and/or magazine writer, editor, or cartoonist. And at this juncture in American history, there were plenty of outlets for someone who wanted to pursue a career as a sportswriter and had the requisite skills to get hired.

The following papers were represented at the inaugural boxing writers’ dinner:

New York Times

New York News

New York World

New York Sun

New York Journal

New York Post

New York Mirror

New York Telegram

New York Graphic

New York Herald Tribune

Brooklyn Eagle

Brooklyn Times

Brooklyn Standard Union

Brooklyn Citizen

Bronx Home News

This isn’t a complete list because a few of these papers, notably the New York World and the New York Journal, had strong afternoon editions that functioned as independent papers. Plus, scribes from both big national wire services (Associated Press and UPI) attended the banquet and there were undoubtedly a smattering of scribes from papers in New Jersey and Connecticut.

Back then, the event’s organizer Nat Fleischer, sports editor of the New York Telegram and the driving force behind The Ring magazine, had little choice but to limit the journalistic component of the gathering to writers in the New York metropolitan area. There wasn’t a ballroom big enough to accommodate a good-sized response if he had extended the welcome to every boxing writer in North America.

The keynote speaker at the inaugural dinner was New York’s charismatic Jazz Age mayor James J. “Jimmy” Walker, architect of the transformative Walker Law of 1920 which ushered in a new era of boxing in the Empire State with a template that would guide reformers in many other jurisdictions.

Prizefighting was then associated with hooligans. In his speech, Mayor Walker promised to rid the sport of their ilk. “Boxing, as you know, is closest to my heart,” said hizzoner. “So I tell you the police force is behind you against those who would besmirch or injure boxing. Rowdyism doesn’t belong in this town or in your game.” (In 1945, Walker would be the recipient of the Edward J. Neil Memorial Award given for meritorious service to the sport. The oldest of the BWAA awards, the previous recipients were all active or former boxers. The award, no longer issued under that title, was named for an Associated Press sportswriter and war correspondent who died from shrapnel wounds covering the Spanish Civil War.)

Another speaker was well-traveled sportswriter Wilbur Wood, then affiliated with the Brooklyn Citizen. He told the assembly that the aim of the organization was two-fold: to help defend the game against its detractors and to promote harmony among the various factions.

Of course, the 1926 dinner wouldn’t have been as well-attended without the entertainment. According to press dispatches, Broadway stars and performers from some of the city’s top nightclubs would be there to regale the attendees. Among the names bandied about were vaudeville superstars Sophie Tucker and Jimmy Durante, the latter of whom would appear with his trio, Durante, (Lou) Clayton, and (Eddie) Jackson.

There was a contraction of New York newspapers during the Great Depression. Although empirical evidence is lacking, the inaugural boxing writers dinner was likely the largest of its kind. Fifteen years later, in 1941, the event drew “more than 200” according to a news report. There was no mention of entertainment.

In 1950, for the first time, the annual dinner was opened to the public. For $25, a civilian could get a meal and mingle with some of his favorite fighters. Sugar Ray Robinson was the Edward J. Neil Award winner that year, honored for his ring exploits and for donating his purse from the Charlie Fusari fight to the Damon Runyon Cancer Fund.

There was no formal announcement when the Boxing Writers Association of Greater New York was re-christened the Boxing Writers Association of America, but by the late 1940s reporters were referencing the annual event as simply the boxing writers dinner. By then, it had become traditional to hold the annual affair in January, a practice discontinued after 1971.

The winnowing of New York’s newspaper herd plus competing banquets in other parts of the country forced Nat Fleischer’s baby to adapt. And more adaptations will be necessary in the immediate future as the future of the BWAA, as it currently exists, is threatened by new technologies. If the forthcoming BWAA dinner (April 30 at the Edison Ballroom in mid-Manhattan) were restricted to wordsmiths from the traditional print media, the gathering would be too small to cover the nut and the congregants would be drawn disproportionately from the geriatric class.

Some of those adaptations have already started. Last year, Las Vegas resident Sean Zittel, a recent UNLV graduate, had the distinction of becoming the first videographer welcomed into the BWAA. With more and more people getting their news from sound bites, rather than the written word, the videographer serves an important function.

The reporters who conducted interviews with pen and paper have gone the way of the dodo bird and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A taped interview for a “talkie” has more integrity than a story culled from a paper and pen interview because it is unfiltered. Many years ago, some reporters, after interviewing the great Joe Louis, put  words in his mouth that made him seem like a dullard, words consistent with the Sambo stereotype. In other instances, the language of some athletes was reconstructed to the point where the reader would think the athlete had a second job as an English professor.

The content created by videographers is free from that bias. More of them will inevitably join the BWAA and similar organizations in the future.

Photo: Nat Fleischer is flanked by Sugar Ray Robinson and Tony Zale at the 1947 boxing writers dinner.

A recognized authority on the history of prizefighting and the history of American sports gambling, TSS editor-in-chief Arne K. Lang is the author of five books including “Prizefighting: An American History,” released by McFarland in 2008 and re-released in a paperback edition in 2020.
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Gabriela Fundora KOs Marilyn Badillo and Perez Upsets Conwell in Oceanside

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It was just a numbers game for Gabriela Fundora and despite Mexico’s Marilyn Badillo’s elusive tactics it took the champion one punch to end the fight and retain her undisputed flyweight world title by knockout on Saturday.

Will it be her last flyweight defense?

Though Fundora (16-0, 8 KOs) fired dozens of misses, a single punch found Badillo (19-1-1, 3 KOs) and ended her undefeated career and first attempt at a world title at the Frontwave Arena in Oceanside, California.

Fundora, however, proves unbeatable at flyweight.

The champion entered the arena as the headliner for the Golden Boy Promotion show and stepped through the ropes with every physical advantage possible, including power.

Mexico’s Badillo was a midget compared to Fundora but proved to be as elusive as a butterfly in a menagerie for the first six rounds. As the six-inch taller Fundora connected on one punch for every dozen thrown, that single punch was a deadly reminder.

Badillo tried ducking low and slipping to the left while countering with slashing uppercuts, she found little success. She did find the body a solid target but the blows proved to be useless. And when Badillo clinched, that proved more erroneous as Fundora belted her rapidly during the tie-ups.

“She was kind of doing her ducking thing,” said Fundora describing Badillo’s defensive tactics. “I just put the pressure on. It was just like a train. We didn’t give her that break.”

The Mexican fighter tried valiantly with various maneuvers. None proved even slightly successful. Fundora remained poised and under control as she stalked the challenger.

In the seventh round Badillo seemed to take a stand and try to slug it out with Fundora. She quickly was lit up by rapid left crosses and down she went at 1:44 of the seventh round. The Mexican fighter’s corner wisely waved off the fight and referee Rudy Barragan stopped the fight and held the dazed Badillo upright.

Once again Fundora remained champion by knockout. The only question now is will she move up to super flyweight or bantamweight to challenge the bigger girls.

Perez Beats Conwell.

Mexico’s Jorge “Chino” Perez (33-4, 26 KOs) upset Charles Conwell (21-1, 15 KOs) to win by split decision after 12 rounds in their super welterweight showdown.

It was a match that paired two hard-hitting fighters whose ledgers brimmed with knockouts, but neither was able to score a knockdown against each other.

Neither fighter moved backward. It was full steam ahead with Conwell proving successful to the body and head with left hooks and Perez connecting with rights to the head and body. It was difficult to differentiate the winner.

Though Conwell seemed to be the superior defensive fighter and more accurate, two judges preferred Perez’s busier style. They gave the fight to Perez by 115-113 scores with the dissenter favoring Conwell by the same margin.

It was Conwell’s first pro loss. Maybe it will open doors for more opportunities.

Other Bouts

Tristan Kalkreuth (15-1) managed to pass a serious heat check by unanimous decision against former contender Felix Valera (24-8) after a 10-round back-and-forth heavyweight fight.

It was very close.

Kalkreuth is one of those fighters that possess all the physical tools including youth and size but never seems to be able to show it. Once again he edged past another foe but at least this time he faced an experienced fighter in Valera.

Valera had his moments especially in the middle of the 10-round fight but slowed down during the last three rounds.

One major asset for Kalkreuth was his chin. He got caught but still motored past the clever Valera. After 10 rounds two judges saw it 99-91 and one other judge 97-93 all for Kalkreuth.

Highly-rated prospect Ruslan Abdullaev (2-0) blasted past dangerous Jino Rodrigo (13- 5-2) in an eight round super lightweight fight. He nearly stopped the very tough Rodrigo in the last two rounds and won by unanimous decision.

Abdullaev is trained by Joel and Antonio Diaz in Indio.

Bakersfield prospect Joel Iriarte (7-0, 7 KOs) needed only 1:44 to knock out Puerto Rico’s Marcos Jimenez (25-12) in a welterweight bout.

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‘Krusher’ Kovalev Exits on a Winning Note: TKOs Artur Mann in his ‘Farewell Fight’

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At his peak, former three-time world light heavyweight champion Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev ranked high on everyone’s pound-for-pound list. Now 42 years old – he turned 42 earlier this month – Kovalev has been largely inactive in recent years, but last night he returned to the ring in his hometown of Chelyabinsk, Russia, and rose to the occasion in what was billed as his farewell fight, stopping Artur Mann in the seventh frame.

Kovalev hit his peak during his first run as a world title-holder. He was 30-0-1 (26 KOs) entering first match with Andre Ward, a mark that included a 9-0 mark in world title fights. The only blemish on his record was a draw that could have been ruled a no-contest (journeyman Grover Young was unfit to continue after Kovalev knocked down in the second round what with was deemed an illegal rabbit punch). Among those nine wins were two stoppages of dangerous Haitian-Canadian campaigner Jean Pascal and a 12-round shutout over Bernard Hopkins.

Kovalev’s stature was not diminished by his loss to the undefeated Ward. All three judges had it 114-113, but the general feeling among the ringside press was that Sergey nicked it.

The rematch was also somewhat controversial. Referee Tony Weeks, who halted the match in the eighth stanza with Kovalev sitting on the lower strand of ropes, was accused of letting Ward get away with a series of low blows, including the first punch of a three-punch series of body shots that culminated in the stoppage. Sergey was wobbled by a punch to the head earlier in the round and was showing signs of fatigue, but he was still in the fight. Respected judge Steve Weisfeld had him up by three points through the completed rounds.

Sergey Kovalev was never the same after his second loss to Andre Ward, albeit he recaptured a piece of the 175-pound title twice, demolishing Vyacheslav Shabranskyy for the vacant WBO belt after Ward announced his retirement and then avenging a loss to Eleider Alvarez (TKO by 7) with a comprehensive win on points in their rematch.

Kovalev’s days as a title-holder ended on Nov. 2, 2019 when Canelo Alvarez, moving up two weight classes to pursue a title in a fourth weight division, stopped him in the 11th round, terminating what had been a relatively even fight with a hellacious left-right combination that left Krusher so discombobulated that a count was superfluous.

That fight went head-to-head with a UFC fight in New York City. DAZN, to their everlasting discredit, opted to delay the start of Canelo-Kovalev until the main event of the UFC fight was finished. The delay lasted more than an hour and Kovalev would say that he lost his psychological edge during the wait.

Kovalev had two fights in the cruiserweight class between his setback to Canelo and last night’s presumptive swan song. He outpointed Tervel Pulev in Los Angeles and lost a 10-round decision to unheralded Robin Sirwan Safar in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Artur Mann, a former world title challenger – he was stopped in three rounds by Mairis Briedis in 2021 when Briedis was recognized as the top cruiserweight in the world – was unexceptional, but the 34-year-old German, born in Kazakhstan, wasn’t chopped liver either, and Kovalev’s stoppage of him will redound well to the Russian when he becomes eligible for the Boxing Hall of Fame.

Krusher almost ended the fight in the second round. He knocked Mann down hard with a short left hand and seemingly scored another knockdown before the round was over (but it was ruled a slip). Mann barely survived the round.

In the next round, a punch left Mann with a bad cut on his right eyelid, but the German came to fight and rounds three, four and five were competitive.

Kovalev had a good sixth round although there were indications that he was tiring. But in the seventh he got a second wind and unleashed a right-left combination that rolled back the clock to the days when he was one of the sport’s most feared punchers. Mann went down hard and as he staggered to his feet, his corner signaled that the fight should be stopped and the referee complied. The official time was 0:49 of round seven. It was the 30th KO for Kovalev who advanced his record to 36-5-1.

Addendum: History informs us that Farewell Fights have a habit of becoming redundant, by which we mean that boxers often get the itch to fight again after calling it quits. Have we seen the last of Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev? We woudn’t bet on it.

The complete Kovalev-Mann fight card was live-streamed on the Boxing News youtube channel.

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