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Three Punch Combo: Digging Deeper Into the Alvarez-Kovalev Upset and More

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studying economics

THREE PUNCH COMBO — My background is in economics. When studying economics, we often look to the past to attempt to predict future outcomes. For example, when the last recession occurred we compile what the data said prior to the start of that recession and look for future similarities to predict when the economy may be headed toward another downturn. This is all done after the fact with the goal being to use what we learned to hopefully better predict and maybe even prevent future economic downturns.

Well those principles of economics can also be used in boxing. Specifically, when upsets occur there are often mitigating factors. Such is the case when explaining why Eleider Alvarez was able to pull off a pretty shocking upset last week when he stopped Sergey Kovalev in round seven of their light heavyweight title fight.

Looking back at the resume of Alvarez leading into the fight, one can see that he was prepared for the moment. Some of this preparedness was by accident (more on this in a moment) and some by design. But regardless, Alvarez was more than ready for his moment under the bright lights.

Many resumes of fighters that are climbing the ladder contain soft opposition meant to pad their record. These fights do nothing in terms of developing the fighter. Yes, Alvarez does have some of these type opponents on his resume. But by and large he fine-tuned his craft by facing quality opponents.

In his ninth professional fight, Alvarez faced 23-1-1 Shawn Hawk in a fight scheduled for twelve rounds. Alvarez, who had not been past the sixth round as a pro, won a decision going the full twelve at this very early stage in his career. A year later, Alvarez faced the always tough Edison Miranda and defeated Miranda by decision.

More quality opponents followed and Alvarez kept grinding out wins. Then in November of 2015, Alvarez faced tricky veteran Isaac Chilemba. Alvarez found Chilemba a tough foe but in the end prevailed via a twelve round majority decision. Though not his best performance, this fight proved to be a great learning experience. The win also put Alvarez in position as the mandatory challenger for WBC light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson.

Despite Alvarez’s mandatory status, Stevenson was able to slip out of ever getting in the ring with him. Instead, Alvarez received a few bucks for agreeing to not pursue the mandatory and had a few other fights to help build him toward something bigger. He faced and defeated former world champions Lucian Bute and Jean Pascal during this time frame. These valuable experiences sort of happened by accident due to the Stevenson situation but further prepared Alvarez for that moment when the big name would finally get in the ring with him.

That big name, of course, was Kovalev and we know what happened. Alvarez was more than prepared for this moment due to not being spoon-fed weak opponents in the first 23 fights of his career. He faced all different types of fighters and styles. He did not always look great but always learned and grew as a fighter. In looking backward, as I often do when studying the economy, the reasons for Alvarez winning now seem very apparent. It’s a lesson from which others can learn.

USA Tuesday Night Fights

This August marks the 20th anniversary of the final airing of the long running weekly boxing series on USA Network titled USA Tuesday Night Fights. The series ran for nearly 16 years and was really boxing’s last consistent weekly television series (as a note, ESPN’s Friday Night Fights Series often went dormant from September to December due to college football).

The series helped develop some of boxing’s biggest stars of the 80’s and 90’s as well as provide many memorable moments. The welterweight contest between Derrell Coley (29-1-2, 21 KO’s) and Kip Diggs (27-2, 19 KO’s) in March of 1997 produced my personal favorite memory from the series.

Derrell Coley vs. Kip Diggs:    03/25/1997

This fight, slated for twelve rounds for the vacant NABF welterweight belt, was a shoot-out from the opening bell. In the first couple of rounds, Coley and Diggs exchanged big shots with each hurting the other on a few occasions. Diggs dropped Coley in the third round with a right down the middle followed by a left hook. Coley had to be helped to his corner at the end of the round but came back firing in the fourth, wobbling Diggs. But Diggs would quickly respond, putting Coley down in round five and then again in round seven with a left hook that put Coley flat on his back.

Coley appeared ready to go in round eight but somehow managed to stage a rally to get back in the fight. The two exchanged big shots again in rounds nine and ten with momentum swinging back and forth.

Toward the end of round ten, a blistering uppercut from Coley put Diggs on the canvas. Diggs was visibly hurt but made it to his feet and to the bell. Coley jumped on Diggs immediately to open round eleven and an overhand right followed by another flush right sent Diggs sprawling to the canvas. Diggs was out and referee Marty Denkin wisely waived an end to the contest.

It was a dramatic win for Coley in a fight that seemingly flipped back and forth in momentum on dozens of occasions. It is a forgotten classic and in my opinion the best fight from the 16-year run of the Tuesday Night Fight series on the old USA network.

Under The Radar Fight

For those of us in the United States that still have time left on their KlowdTV subscription from the Usyk-Gassiev event last month, there will be another international card available on that platform this coming Sunday. This card takes place in Russia and is headlined by a 130-pound contest between Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov (12-0, 9 KO’s) and Robinson Castellanos (24-13, 14 KO’s).

Rakhimov, 23, is an aggressive southpaw who likes to work behind the right jab and use that punch to close the distance on his opposition. Once inside, Rakhimov is a very good body puncher and he will look to work both sides of his opponent’s ribcage. From the video I have seen, his best punch is the straight left though he can be described as more of a heavy handed type fighter than a one punch knockout type guy. Though he usually carries a high guard, Rakhimov has shown some defensive vulnerability.

Castellanos may have the most deceiving record in boxing. At first glance, he appears to be a journeyman type opponent brought in to pad Rakhimov’s record. But Castellanos is no journeyman. He has scored his share of upsets in recent years including handing Ronny Rios his first defeat and stunning one time Cuban amateur star Yuriorkis Gamboa.

Castellanos is a tricky guy to fight as he will throw lots of punches and from all sorts of angles. He will jump in and out, giving opponents all sorts of different looks. He has perfected his awkward style in recent years and given plenty of world class opponents plenty of fits.

I see this fight as an absolute toss-up. Rakhimov is going to see plenty of openings with Castellanos and with his aggressive nature will probably be more than willing to open up. But that may play right into the hands of his Mexican opponent. Castellanos has a good overhand right and I think he lands the punch with frequency. These two are going to land often on each other and I think we are going to get a nice competitive scrap.

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Usyk Outpoints Fury and Itauma has the “Wow Factor” in Riyadh

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Usyk Outpoints Fury and Itauma has the “Wow Factor” in Riyadh

Oleksandr Usyk left no doubt that he is the best heavyweight of his generation and one of the greatest boxers of all time with a unanimous decision over Tyson Fury tonight at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. But although the Ukrainian won eight rounds on all three scorecards, this was no runaway. To pirate a line from one of the DAZN talking heads, Fury had his moments in every round but Usyk had more moments.

The early rounds were fought at a faster pace than the first meeting back in May. At the mid-point, the fight was even. The next three rounds – the next five to some observers – were all Usyk who threw more punches and landed the cleaner shots.

Fury won the final round in the eyes of this reporter scoring at home, but by then he needed a knockout to pull the match out of the fire.

The last round was an outstanding climax to an entertaining chess match during which both fighters took turns being the pursuer and the pursued.

An Olympic gold medalist and a unified world champion at cruiserweight and heavyweight, the amazing Usyk improved his ledger to 23-0 (14). His next fight, more than likely, will come against the winner of the Feb. 22 match in Ridayh between Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker which will share the bill with the rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol.

Fury (34-2-1) may fight Anthony Joshua next. Regardless, no one wants a piece of Moses Itauma right now although the kid is only 19 years old.

Moses Itauma

Raised in London by a Nigerian father and a Slovakian mother, Itauma turned heads once again with another “wow” performance. None of his last seven opponents lasted beyond the second round.

His opponent tonight, 34-year-old Australian Demsey McKean, lasted less than two minutes. Itauma, a southpaw with blazing fast hands, had the Aussie on the deck twice during the 117-second skirmish. The first knockdown was the result of a cuffing punch that landed high on the head; the second knockdown was produced by an overhand left. McKean went down hard as his chief cornerman bounded on to the ring apron to halt the massacre.

Photo (c);Mark Robinson/Matchroom

Photo (c): Mark Robinson

Itauma (12-0, 10 KOs after going 20-0 as an amateur) is the real deal. It was the second straight loss for McKean (22-2) who lasted into the 10th round against Filip Hrgovic in his last start.

Bohachuk-Davis

In a fight billed as the co-main although it preceded Itauma-McKean, Serhii Bohachuk, an LA-based Ukrainian, stopped Ishmael Davis whose corner pulled him out after six frames.

Both fighters were coming off a loss in fights that were close on the scorecards, Bohachuk falling to Vergil Ortiz Jr in a Las Vegas barnburner and Davis losing to Josh Kelly.

Davis, who took the fight on short notice, subbing for Ismail Madrimov, declined to 13-2. He landed a few good shots but was on the canvas in the second round, compliments of a short left hook, and the relentless Bohachuk (25-2, 24 KOs) eventually wore him down.

Fisher-Allen

In a messy, 10-round bar brawl masquerading as a boxing match, Johnny Fisher, the Romford Bull, won a split decision over British countryman David Allen. Two judges favored Fisher by 95-94 tallies with the dissenter favoring Allen 96-93. When the scores were announced, there was a chorus of boos and those watching at home were outraged.

Allen was a step up in class for Fisher. The Doncaster man had a decent record (23-5-2 heading in) and had been routinely matched tough (his former opponents included Dillian Whyte, Luis “King Kong” Ortiz and three former Olympians). But Allen was fairly considered no more than a journeyman and Fisher (12-0 with 11 KOs, eight in the opening round) was a huge favorite.

In round five, Allen had Fisher on the canvas twice although only one was ruled a true knockdown. From that point, he landed the harder shots and, at the final bell, he fell to canvas shedding tears of joy, convinced that he had won.

He did not win, but he exposed Johnny Fisher as a fighter too slow to compete with elite heavyweights, a British version of the ponderous Russian-Canadian campaigner Arslanbek Makhmudov.

Other Bouts of Note

In a spirited 10-round featherweight match, Scotland’s Lee McGregor, a former European bantamweight champion and stablemate of former unified 140-pound title-holder Josh Taylor, advanced to 15-1-1 (11) with a unanimous decision over Isaac Lowe (25-3-3). The judges had it 96-92 and 97-91 twice.

A cousin and regular houseguest of Tyson Fury, Lowe fought most of the fight with cuts around both eyes and was twice deducted a point for losing his gumshield.

In a fight between super featherweights that could have gone either way, Liverpool southpaw Peter McGrail improved to 11-1 (6) with a 10-round unanimous decision over late sub Rhys Edwards. The judges had it 96-95 and 96-94 twice.

McGrail, a Tokyo Olympian and 2018 Commonwealth Games gold medalist, fought from the third round on with a cut above his right eye, the result of an accidental clash of heads. It was the first loss for Edwards (16-1), a 24-year-old Welshman who has another fight booked in three weeks.

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.

The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.

Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.

The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.

That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.

The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)

Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)

Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.

Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).

Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.

The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.

Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.

Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.

We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”

The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.

Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.

Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.

Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.

There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France,  Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.

It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed,  it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.

Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.

At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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