Lazaro Malvarez Cárdenas and J.J. Alvarez are the linchpins of our Spanish language sister site. Both previewed the Canelo-Kovalev fight in-depth. Here are their stories, translated in English, with Lazaro Malvarez Cárdenas stepping up to the plate first.

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It took some time and even a World title was lost along the way, but when Alvarez’s team makes moves it’s because they know where they’re going and this Saturday, Nov. 2, is no exception. Even though ‘Canelo” and his promoters haven’t been seeing eye to eye, let’s not think that “Golden Boy”, with Óscar de la Hoya in charge, would risk their golden goose, especially during times like these when boxing is being bombarded from the outside as well as from within its own business.

Álvarez is the betting favorite and has a 350 million-dollar deal with the platform DAZN, which he must live up to in great fashion; in other words, without facing another Michael “Rocky” Fielding.

Let’s begin with the comparisons: Alvarez is 29 years old, while Kovalev is seven years his senior at 36. Álvarez has competed in 55 professional bouts, with 52 victories, only one loss against Floyd Mayweather Jr and two draws. Kovalev possesses a record of 34 victories, 3 defeats and one draw with his failures being talked about much more than his successes. His execution came at the hands of Andre Ward, who exposed him in their second match, and the Colombian Eleider Álvarez, whom he was able to get the better of in a subsequent rematch. If we go to the numbers, the Russian has a higher percentage of knockouts (76% to 64%) and he’s 4 inches taller.

Sergey “Krusher” has heavy hands but is mentally weak. Power, a potent jab, and being at his habitual weight of 175lbs are some of his strengths.

Álvarez’s fans point to his speed, ability to bob and weave, adapt, precision, power and to his corner with Eddy Reynoso as head coach. But the real question here is, how will these aforementioned attributes fare at 175lbs and against a natural light heavyweight?

Those who are truly optimistic believe that a body shot from “Canelo” will destroy the Russian and there is no doubt that it will cause some form of damage. That being said, the Mexican’s victory has already long been decided: it comes from his mindset and confidence in that he will retire a faded Kovalev.

Let’s not fool ourselves, the times when Kovalev demolished undefeated fighters such as Nathan Cleverly, Cedric Agnew, Blake Caparello or terrified veterans like Bernard Hopkins and Jean Pascal are long gone. He was almost knocked out in his most recent fight against the unknown Anthony Yarde, and thanks to the Brit’s lack of stamina avoided the upset.

Álvarez is younger, defensively sound and has improved tremendously at the hands of Eddy Reynoso, and if by chance he doesn’t deserve to win in the ring, he’ll have three allies sitting in high chairs at ringside that will help him because “Canelo” Álvarez is part of the Las Vegas show even if it’s only twice a year.

PREDICTION: The Mexican “David” defeats the Russian “Goliath.” Canelo Álvarez by knockout after the 8^th round (Lazaro Malvarez Cárdenas)

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After the initial celebration from confirming the fight between the Mexican challenger Saúl “Canelo” Alvarez and the Russian light heavyweight champion Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev, questions flooded the representatives of the red headed Aztecan for allowing him to move up a few weight classes against a big puncher like Kovalev. Previously it seemed like an illogical and absurd decision.

But the people who represent the superstar Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 Kos) and have transformed him into a valuable “commercial product”, as well as the world’s most popular boxer, aren’t taking any shots in the dark. NO. To get to this contract with Kovalev, Canelo’s team made a thorough analysis of today’s Kovalev who at 36 years of age lacks the power of yesteryear and has a stamina issue, as seen in his knockout losses to the American Andre Ward (in the 8^th round in 2017), and the Colombian Eleider Alvarez (in the 7^th round in 2018), and most recently in his victory against the British Anthony Yarde.

Canelo will be at a height disadvantage (5’8” vs 6’0”), but will have youth on his side (29 vs 36), a deadly left hook and an amazing training camp. The crowd could also be a factor for Canelo, swaying the judges in his favor with their overwhelming chants.

Canelo has competed 12 times in Sin City, with 10 wins one loss and one draw. His defeat against the now retired American Floyd “Money” Mayweather shows the judges favoritism for the Mexican. Mayweather’s victory was domination in all aspects, and yet judge C. J. Ross (who eventually was forced to resign) shamelessly scored the fight a draw, 114-114.

Another memorable fight was Canelo vs the Cuban southpaw Erislandy “The American Dream” Lara, July of 2014. The higher volume of punches, superior technique and defensive ability was displayed by the Cuban, but the judges at ringside unjustly announced the Mexican as the winner with score cards of 117-111 and 115-113 (from Dave Moretti, who will be present at the Kovalev fight). Jerry Roth saw the Cuban as victorious 115-113.

More recently, the draw between Canelo and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin, September 16^th of 2017, created a lot of doubt surrounding the impartiality and honesty of the judges. Golovkin was the aggressor and landed the more significant punches. But somehow Canelo received the insane score of 118-110 from Adalaide Byrd! (she saw the Aztecan win 10 rounds and only two for the European). Meanwhile, Moretti saw It 115-113 in favor of the Kazakhstani and Don Trella scored it a draw.

We also can’t disregard the claims made by James “Buddy” McGirt, Kovalev’s trainer, who is convinced that his disciple will win. McGirt was inducted in the International Boxing Hall of Fame this year and knows what kind of weight his words carry. If he provides his unconditional support for the European, his prestige as a trainer will be in question.

McGirt stated that Canelo hasn’t faced any great fighters with the exception of Floyd Mayweather Jr. “I like Canelo, I think he’s a good fighter and his trainer has done a lot of good things with him, but tell me, who has he beat?,” said McGirt. “I respect him for accepting the challenge, but I think he picked the wrong guy”.

Even though anything can happen inside the ring, the decision to take on Kovalev was not without calculation. Canelo’s team is aware of the risk and is extremely confident in his ability to claim victory and grasp the WBO World Light Heavyweight Title. If he sticks with Trainer Chepo Reynoso’s game plan and there are no “lucky” punches, then Canelo will end the night with his hand raised. The winds of victory blow in his direction.

VERDICT: Canelo!  (J.J. Alvarez)

Translated by E.G. for Lazaro Malvarez Cárdenas of CdB.ib.tv and J.J. Alvarez of Boxeo.ib.tv

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