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Wilder – Fury Predictions & Analyses from the TSS Panel of Writers

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Whenever there is a big fight with a high level of intrigue, we survey members of our writing community to get their thoughts. In terms of pre-fight intrigue, Saturday’s rematch in Las Vegas between fellow unbeatens Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) and Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs) ranks among the top heavyweight title fights of all time.

As is our usual custom, we are listing our panelists alphabetically. The graphic is by Colorado comic book cover artist ROB AYALA whose work has attracted a lot of buzz. Ayala’s specialty is combat sports. Check out more of his very cool work at his web site fight posium.

MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI — In the first fight, my prediction was that Fury would easily out-box Wilder. I am sticking to my guns with the same prediction for the second fight. I know Fury is making a lot of noise about knocking out Wilder but I think this is more psychological than anything else. Fury will box cautiously behind the jab, pick his spots to counter and focus very carefully on his defense. He is not going to go for the knockout and will turn this into an even more tactical affair than the first fight. But he will be more successful this time and coast to a wide unanimous decision victory.

BERNARD FERNANDEZ — Fury is saying he’s going to meet Wilder in the center of the ring and take him out in two rounds. I’m guessing that’s a ruse, so I don’t put much stock in it. But even if the big Brit elects to outbox Wilder over 12 rounds, which he is capable of doing, that means he has to avoid getting clocked with a huge right hand for 12 rounds. Gotta go with the home run hitter here. Wilder by KO or stoppage in eight rounds.

JEFFREY FREEMAN — Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder are equally charged with restoring much needed prestige to the heavyweight division in America. It’s a long slow slog. As a result, the powers caring about this have to be careful not to give away what they can sell. That’s why the first Wilder-Fury fight was called a draw. Neither fighter can afford a loss on their undefeated record and Bob Arum won’t be giving paying fans an actual result in exchange for their hard earned PPV dollars. Not yet anyway. So, it’s going to happen again! Wilder-Fury II ends in another draw but don’t worry, you can pay for the trilogy rubber-match “tie breaker” spectacular soon enough!

ARNE LANG – We performed this exercise before the first-Wilder Fury fight. No one was more bullish on Wilder than me. Properly chastened, I am going to pass the buck this time. Here are the observations of a long-time friend who resides on the Isle of Man and is known for having a sharp opinion: “Fury was cut badly in his last fight and will be very cautious, having tasted Wilder’s power. Training at Kronk isn’t the same without Manny Steward there. Fury has had multiple distractions and I don’t regard him as a world class puncher. DW has 36 minutes to land the one punch that will turn the tide.”

KELSEY McCARSON — Can you imagine what Deontay Wilder might feel on fight night? Across the ring from him will again be Tyson Fury, the same fighter who ate Wilder’s best punch and got back up on his feet. The only other time Wilder didn’t score a knockout was when he faced Bermane Stiverne in 2015. But Wilder broke his right hand in that fight, so he could explain that mystery away until he got the rematch with Stiverne two years later and ended up folding him in half in the first round like a lawn chair. But neither of Wilder’s hands were broken against Fury. Worse for the 34-year-old American is that Fury outboxed him for the majority of the fight. I like Fury to win the rematch by decision. Wilder will overcommit on his punches, and Fury will box his ears off for the clear victory.

MATT McGRAIN — Predicting a Tyson Fury fight is rather like predicting the weather. Even with all the pertinent information on hand it’s impossible to know exactly what will occur. Fury has been running less but reportedly sparring more; he has spoken openly of targeting 270lbs for the weigh-in; he has a new trainer who may or may not be motivating him; he has looked consistently bored and disinterested at more recent pressers; he has spoken openly of the crushing depression that envelopes him every Sunday. So, we might get an overweight, disinterested, under-motivated Fury on Saturday night. And he still might win. Put me down for Fury on points, but the right answer is, ‘nobody knows’.

SEAN NAM — Tyson Fury’s body may be as taut as its ever been, but his mind is in free-floating mode these days. Between hinting at an early retirement and opening up about certain sexual proclivities, Fury seems to have one foot perpetually out of the ring. In fact, ever since he linked up with Top Rank, it has been one big, gaudy publicity tour after another for the Manchester man. A stint with the WWE, the publication of his autobiography (as though his legacy in the ring had already been set in stone), and repeated desires to fight in an MMA crossover bout give the impression that Fury may not be as dialed-in for the most important fight of his life. Not to mention, Fury inexplicably canned his former trainer, Ben Davison. Meanwhile, Deontay Wilder, he of the thunderous right-hand fame, has been quiet as a church mouse. Wilder TKO9.

TED SARES –  An in-shape Fury schools Wilder in the early to mid rounds with focus and discipline, but then Wilder’s right connects and a stunned Fury backs off. Wilder then presses the action and KOs the giant in the next round – maybe the 9th or 10th – with a windmill shot (left or right) or a paralyzing straight ala Breazeale. We know Fury can go down. We know he can get up. But so also do Wilder and Mark Breland.

PHIL WOOLEVER – Wilder’s KO percentage gives him the coin-flip edge (Fury better remember what happened to Stiverne) but I have no clear idea what might happen where I see another draw just as likely as a decision either way. What intrigues me most are the over/under bet propositions listed around the 11th (take the under) and the possibility of this rematch joining a list of outrageous circumstances like the long count, ear bite or paraglider.

Check out more boxing news on video at The Boxing Channel 

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L.A.’s Rudy Hernandez is the 2024 TSS Trainer of the Year

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L.A.’s Rudy Hernandez is the 2024 TSS Trainer of the Year

If asked to name a prominent boxing trainer who operates out of a gym in Los Angeles, the name Freddie Roach would jump immediately to mind. Best known for his work with Manny Pacquaio, Roach has been named the Trainer of the Year by the Boxing Writers Association of America a record seven times.

A mere seven miles from Roach’s iconic Wild Card Gym is the gym that Rudy Hernandez now calls home. Situated in the Little Tokyo neighborhood in downtown Los Angeles, the L.A. Boxing Gym – a relatively new addition to the SoCal boxing landscape — is as nondescript as its name. From the outside, one would not guess that two reigning world champions, Junto Nakatani and Anthony Olascuaga, were forged there.

As Freddie Roach will be forever linked with Manny Pacquiao, so will Rudy Hernandez be linked with Nakatani. The Japanese boxer was only 15 years old when his parents packed him off to the United States to be tutored by Hernandez. With Hernandez in his corner, the lanky southpaw won titles at 112 and 115 and currently holds the WBO bantamweight (118) belt. In his last start, he knocked out his Thai opponent, a 77-fight veteran who had never been stopped, advancing his record to 29-0 (22 KOs).

Nakatani’s name now appears on several pound-for-pound lists. A match with Japanese superstar Naoya Inoue is brewing. When that match comes to fruition, it will be the grandest domestic showdown in Japanese boxing history.

“Junto Nakatani is the greatest fighter I’ve ever trained. It’s easy to work with him because even when he came to me at age 15, his focus was only on boxing. It was to be a champion one day and nothing interfered with that dream,” Hernandez told sports journalist Manouk Akopyan writing for Boxing Scene.

Akin to Nakatani, Rudy Hernandez built Anthony Olascuaga from scratch. The LA native was rucked out of obscurity in April of 2023 when Jonathan Gonzalez contracted pneumonia and was forced to withdraw from his date in Tokyo with lineal light flyweight champion Kenshiro Teraji. Olascuaga, with only five pro fights under his belt, filled the breach on 10 days’ notice and although he lost (TKO by 9), he earned kudos for his gritty performance against the man recognized as the best fighter in his weight class.

Two fights later, back in Tokyo, Olascuaga copped the WBO world flyweight title with a third-round stoppage of Riku Kano. His first defense came in October, again in Japan, and Olascuaga retained his belt with a first-round stoppage of the aforementioned Gonzalez. (This bout was originally ruled a no-contest as it ended after Gonzalez suffered a cut from an accidental clash of heads. But the referee ruled that Gonzalez was fit to continue before the Puerto Rican said “no mas,” alleging his vision was impaired, and the WBO upheld a protest from the Olascuaga camp and changed the result to a TKO. Regardless, Rudy Hernandez’s fighter would have kept his title.)

Hernandez, 62, is the brother of the late Genaro “Chicanito” Hernandez. A two-time world title-holder at 130 pounds who fought the likes of Azumah Nelson, Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather Jr., Chicanito passed away in 2011, a cancer victim at age 45.

Genaro “Chicanito” Hernandez was one of the most popular fighters in the Hispanic communities of Southern California. Rudy Hernandez, a late bloomer of sorts – at least in terms of public recognition — has kept his brother’s flame alive with own achievements. He is a worthy honoree for the 2024 Trainer of the Year.

Note: This is the first in our series of annual awards. The others will arrive sporadically over the next two weeks.

Photo credit: Steve Kim

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A Shocker in Tijuana: Bruno Surace KOs Jaime Munguia !!

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It was a chilly night in Tijuana when Jaime Munguia entered the ring for his homecoming fight with Bruno Surace. The main event of a Zanfer/Top Rank co-promotion, Munguia vs. Surace was staged in the city’s 30,000-seat soccer stadium a stone’s throw from the U.S. border in the San Diego metroplex.

Surace, a Frenchman, brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but a quick glance at his record showed that he had scant chance of holding his own with the house fighter. Only four of Surace’s 25 wins had come by stoppage and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records. Munguia was making the first start in the city of his birth since February 2022. Surace had never fought outside Europe.

But hold the phone!

After losing every round heading into the sixth, Surace scored the Upset of the Year, ending the contest with a one-punch knockout.

It looked like a short and easy night for Munguia when he knocked Surace down with a left hook in the second stanza. From that point on, the Frenchman fought off his back foot, often with back to the ropes, throwing punches only in spurts. Munguia worked the body well and was seemingly on the way to wearing him down when he was struck by lightning in the form of an overhand right.

Down went Munguia, landing on his back. He struggled to get to his feet, but the referee waived it off a nano-second before reaching “10.” The official time was 2:36 of round six.

Munguia, who was 44-1 heading in with 35 KOs, was as high as a 35/1 favorite. In his only defeat, he had gone the distance with Canelo Alvarez. This was the biggest upset by a French fighter since Rene Jacquot outpointed Donald Curry in 1989 and Jacquot had the advantage of fighting in his homeland.

Co-Main

Mexico City’s Alan Picasso, ranked #1 by the WBC at 122 pounds, scored a third-round stoppage of last-minute sub Yehison Cuello in a scheduled 10-rounder contested at featherweight. Picaso (31-0-1, 17 KOs) is a solid technician. He ended the bout with a left to the rib cage, a punch that weaved around Cuello’s elbow and didn’t appear to be especially hard. The referee stopped his count at “nine” and waived the fight off.

A 29-year-old Colombian who reportedly had been training in Tijuana, the overmatched Cuello slumped to 13-3-1.

Other Bouts of Note

In a ho-hum affair, junior middleweight Jorge Garcia advanced to 32-4 (26) with a 10-round unanimous decision over Uzbekistan’s Kudratillo Abudukakhorov (20-4). The judges had it 97-92 and 99-90 twice. There were no knockdowns, but Garcia had a point deducted in round eight for low blows.

Garcia displayed none of the power that he showed in his most recent fight three months ago in Arizona and when he knocked out his German opponent in 46 seconds. Abudukakhorov, who has competed mostly as a welterweight, came in at 158 1/4 pounds and didn’t look in the best of shape. The Uzbek was purportedly 170-10 as an amateur (4-5 per boxrec).

Super bantamweight Sebastian Hernandez improved to 18-0 (17 KOs) with a seventh-round stoppage of Argentine import Sergio Martin (14-5). The end came at the 2:39 mark of round seven when Martin’s corner threw in the towel. Earlier in the round, Martin lost his mouthpiece and had a point deducted for holding.

Hernandez wasn’t all that impressive considering the high expectations born of his high knockout ratio, but appeared to have injured his right hand during the sixth round.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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Ringside in Ontario where Alexis Rocha and Raul Curiel Battled to a Spirited Draw

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Ringside in Ontario where Alexis Rocha and Raul Curiel Battled to a Spirited Draw

ONTARIO, CA -Two SoCal welterweights battled to a majority draw and Ohio’s Charles Conwell wowed the crowd with precision and power in his victory.

In the main event Alexis Rocha sought to prove his loss a year ago was a fluke and Raul Curiel sought to prove he belongs with the contenders.

Both got their wish.

After 12 rounds of back-and-forth exchanges, Rocha (25-2-1, 16 KOs) and Curiel (15-0-1, 13 KOs) battled to a stalemate in front of more than 5,000 fans at Toyota Arena. No oner seemed surprised by the majority decision draw.

“We got one for the people It was a Rocha landed impressive blows while Curiel just could not seem to get the motor running.

Things turned around in seventh round.

During the first half of the fight, it looked like Rocha’s experience in big events would be too much for Curiel to handle. Rocha landed impressive blows while Curiel just could not seem to get the motor running.

Things turned around in seventh round.

Maybe trainer Freddie Roach’s words got to Curiel. The Mexican Olympian who now lives in the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, suddenly planted his feet and ripped off five- and six-punch combinations. It was do or die.

The change of tactics forced Rocha to make changes too especially after absorbing several ripping uppercuts from Curiel.

Back and forth the welterweights exchanged and neither fighter could take charge. And neither fighter was knocked down though each both connected with sweat-tossing blows.

The two fighters battled until the final seconds of the fight. After 12 blistering rounds, one judge saw Rocha the winner 116-112, while the two other judges scored it 114-114 for a majority draw.

“I respect this guy. It was 12 rounds of war,” said Santa Ana’s Rocha.

Curiel felt the same.

“I respect Rocha. He is a good southpaw,” Curiel repeated. “Let’s do it again.”

 Battle of Undefeated Super Welterweights

Few knew what to expect with undefeated Charles Conwell (21-0, 16 KOs) facing undefeated Argentine Gerardo Vergara (20-1, 13 KOs). You never what to expect with Argentine fighters.

Conwell, a U.S. Olympian, showed why many consider him the best kept secret in boxing with a steady attack behind impressive defense. He needed it against Vergara, a very strong southpaw.

Vergara seemed a little puzzled by Conwell’s constant pressure. He might have expected a hit-and-run kind of fighter instead of a steamroller like the Ohio warrior.

Once the two fighters got heated up in the cold arena, the blows began to come more often and more powerfully. Conwell in particular stood right in front of the Argentine and bobbed and weaved through the South American fighter’s attack. And suddenly unleashed rocket rights and left hooks off Vergara’s chin.

Nothing happened expect blood from his nose for several rounds.

For six rounds Conwell blasted away at Vergara’s chin and jaw and nothing seemed to faze the Argentine. Then, Conwell targeted the body and suddenly things opened up. Vergara was caught trying to decide what to protect when a left hook jolted the Argentine. Suddenly Conwell erupted with a stream of left hooks and rights with almost everything connecting with power.

Referee Thomas Taylor jumped in to stop the fight at 2:51 of the seventh round. Conwell finally chopped down the Argentine tree for the knockout win. The fans gasped at the suddenness of the victory.

“We broke him down,” Conwell said.

It was impressive.

 Other Bouts

Popular John “Scrappy” Ramirez (14-1, 9 KOs) started slowly against Texas left-hander Ephraim Bui (10-1, 8 KOs) but gained momentum behind accurate right uppercuts to swing the momentum and win a regional super flyweight title by unanimous decision after 10 rounds

Bui opened the fight behind some accurate lead lefts, but once Ramirez found the solution he took the fight inside and repeatedly jolted the taller Texas fighter with that blow.

Ramirez, who is based in Los Angeles, gained momentum and confidence and kept control with movements left and right that kept Bui unable to regain the advantage. No knockdowns were scored as all three judges scored the fight 97-93 for Ramirez.

A battle between former flyweight world champions saw Marlen Esparza (15-2, 1 KO) pull away after several early contentious rounds against Mexico’s Arely Mucino (32-5-2, 11 KOs). Left hooks staggered Esparza early in the fight.

Esparza always could take a punch and after figuring out what not to do, she began rolling up points behind pinpoint punching and pot shots. Soon, it was evident she could hit and move and took over the last three rounds of the fight.

Mucino never stopped attacking and was successful with long left hooks and shots to the body, but once Esparza began launching impressive pot shots, the Mexican fighter never could figure out a solution.

After 10 rounds two judges scored it 98-92 and a third judge saw it 97-93 all for Esparza.

Victor Morales (20-0-1, 10 KOs) won by technical knockout over Mexico’s Juan Guardado (16-3-1, 6 KOs) due to a bad cut above the right eye. It was a learning experience for Morales who hails from Washington.

Left hooks were the problem for Morales who could not avoid a left hook throughout the super featherweight fight. Guardado staggered Morales at least three times with counter left hooks. But Morales turned things around by controlling the last three rounds behind a jolting left jab that controlled the distance.

At one second of the eighth round, referee Ray Corona stopped the fight to allow the ringside physician to examine the swelling and cut. It was decided that the fight should stop. Morales was awarded the win by technical knockout.

A super bantamweight fight saw Jorge Chavez (13-0, 8 KOs) score two knockdowns on way to a unanimous decision over Uruguay’s Ruben Casero (12-4, 4 KOs) after eight rounds. Chavez fights out of Tijuana, Mexico.

Photo credit: Al Applerose

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