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Countdown To Mayweather-Pacquiao: If There’s No Stoppage The Ending Will Be Controversial
Most fans who you talk with emphatically believe there will be a rematch between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao after they fight on May 2nd. And with so many feeling that way, you have to ask what does that tell you?
I believe it strongly conveys many boxing observers and aficionados feel regardless of who wins, the fight is going to go the distance and the outcome will most likely not be conclusive via the decision rendered. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone.
If you examine their careers over the last six years or so, it’s almost impossible to deduce that the bout will end by KO/TKO (although I feel the odds of that are greater than most others do). Mayweather, who has never been viewed as a fighter who wins inside the distance, hasn’t scored a clean stoppage since he TKO’d Ricky Hatton in the 10th round back in December of 2007. Yes, he stopped Victor Ortiz in September of 2011, but that was due to him nailing Ortiz with a sucker punch when Victor stupidly and unnecessarily extended his hands to touch gloves with Floyd after a break during the fight.
Pacquiao, who is the perceived puncher in the bout, hasn’t been laying a trail of splattered bodies across the ring either. Manny hasn’t won by stoppage in his last nine bouts going all the way back to November of 2009. So if we go by both fighters’ recent track record, the odds are heavily in favor the outcome of Mayweather-Pacquiao will be decided by the three judges appointed to score the fight by the Nevada State Athletic Commission. And the thought of that should scare both fighters and their fans.
What a stellar resume Nevada boxing judges have compiled over the past few years. Remember how one judge scored the Mayweather-Alvarez fight a draw? It’s almost impossible to justify Alvarez winning a single round of that fight – yet one judge scored six of them in his favor? And that was nine months after two judges scored the first Pacquiao-Bradley fight for Bradley. That was another atrocious decision in which the wrong fighter had his hand raised, and that ultimately set up the rematch in which Pacquiao jogged to a decision victory. With inconsistent Vegas judging in mind…would anyone be surprised if Mayweather or Pacquiao won a decision where the real score should be something like 116-112 or even 117-111, however we end up getting a majority or split decision? This would of course ignite the talk of an immediate rematch that the economics will dictate.
The post-fight narrative will supersede what actually takes place in the ring, if at all possible. And the promoters will try and make the viewer’s question what they saw, and the strange thing is that they’ll be able to do that.
In order for that not to be the case there has to be a clean stoppage by either fighter. If the fight goes to a decision it’s highly probable the ending will be controversial. Is it really plausible that if one of them doesn’t bash the other that the supporters of the losing fighter will not cry their guy was robbed? Of course they’ll say that and the promoters and everyone else will feed into it. And the reason for that is, there’s nearly a billion dollars to be generated if just one simple thing happens….and that is Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao fight a second time. It’s mind boggling that almost one billion dollars will be divvied up between the players involved if they can just take what will be the highest grossing fight in history and convince the public that for it to really mean anything, the two fighters have to meet one more time. That doesn’t seem like such a tough sell does it?
I know that former undisputed heavyweight/cruiserweight champion Evander Holyfield has said a few times that the boxing establishment doesn’t want Floyd Mayweather to retire undefeated. This is a view that is shared by others who follow the sport closely. It’s also a view that I don’t share and actually think the opposite is more in play. Many think for there to be a rematch, Mayweather must lose to Pacquiao by hook or by crook on May 2nd. Once again I disagree with the masses and implicitly believe Mayweather can win the fight and the odds are still great that he and Manny will go at it once more.
Let’s assume the fight goes the distance and Mayweather wins by decision. Say the scores are 116-112, 117-111 and 115-113, but 115-113 is the hardest to justify. You can be assured there will be a large faction of Pacquiao supporters who will highlight the 115-113 score, because in rounds that’s 7-5, and they’ll stress how if that judge changed on one round, he’d have the fight a draw. And if you flip one of the close rounds on the other two cards you end up with scores favoring Mayweather 115-113, 116-112 and 114-114. Suddenly the fight becomes really close and pretty soon the fact that Floyd controlled the fight most of the way will become a distant memory. Of course you’ll also hear how “Manny made the fight. He pushed Mayweather every second and Floyd just ran. If it hadn’t been for Pacquiao, there wouldn’t have even been a fight.” And that will gain momentum.
Floyd will then likely rationalize in his mind, I won and it wasn’t even my toughest fight. And for another 150 plus million dollars or more, I’ll take him to school again. Thus thinking to himself, Pacquiao can’t do anything differently in a rematch but bring more of the same of what didn’t work the first time. But I can be better because after being in the ring with him for 12 rounds, I know what he can and can’t do and I’m the type of fighter who can adjust, and I will.
The way I see it, if the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight goes to a decision, and the odds are it will, regardless of who wins the loser will have many making the case for him that he really won. So without a clean stoppage, in spite of how one-sided the fight may turn out to be, the decision will be seen as controversial and the drumbeat for a rematch will begin. And with nearly another half a billion dollars just waiting to be plucked from the willing public, who is going to object? In fact it seems almost as if a majority of boxing fans are counting on Mayweather and Pacquiao fighting twice.
The only thing that could throw the above scenario off is if Mayweather loses a decision in which he wholeheartedly believes that he won, the way Marvin Hagler felt after losing a split decision to Sugar Ray Leonard. Does Floyd say screw it like Hagler did and walk away from the sport never to been seen or heard from again?
I don’t think Mayweather would respond like Hagler, but the possibility certainly exists.
Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com
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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?
In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.
The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.
Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.
The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.
That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.
The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)
Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)
Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.
Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).
Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.
The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.
Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.
Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.
We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”
The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.
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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.
Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.
Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.
Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.
There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France, Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.
It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed, it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.
Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.
At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.
Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank
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Steven Navarro is the TSS 2024 Prospect of the Year
“I get ‘Bam’ vibes when I watch this kid,” said ESPN ringside commentator Tim Bradley during the opening round of Steven Navarro’s most recent match. Bradley was referencing WBC super flyweight champion Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez, a precociously brilliant technician whose name now appears on most pound-for-pound lists.
There are some common threads between Steven Navarro, the latest fighter to adopt the nickname “Kid Dynamite,” and Bam Rodriguez. Both are southpaws currently competing in the junior bantamweight division. But, of course, Bradley was alluding to something more when he made the comparison. And Navarro’s showing bore witness that Bradley was on to something.
It was the fifth pro fight for Navarro who was matched against a Puerto Rican with a 7-1 ledger. He ended the contest in the second frame, scoring three knockdowns, each the result of a different combination of punches, forcing the referee to stop it. It was the fourth win inside the distance for the 20-year-old phenom.
Isaias Estevan “Steven” Navarro turned pro after coming up short in last December’s U.S. Olympic Trials in Lafayette, Louisiana. The #1 seed in the 57 kg (featherweight) division, he was upset in the finals, losing a controversial split decision. Heading in, Navarro had won 13 national tournaments beginning at age 12.
A graduate of LA’s historic Fairfax High School, Steven made his pro debut this past April on a Matchroom Promotions card at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas and then inked a long-term deal with Top Rank. He comes from a boxing family. His father Refugio had 10 pro fights and three of Refugio’s cousins were boxers, most notably Jose Navarro who represented the USA at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and was a four-time world title challenger as a super flyweight. Jose was managed by Oscar De La Hoya for much of his pro career.
Nowadays, the line between a prospect and a rising contender has been blurred. Three years ago, in an effort to make matters less muddled, we operationally defined a prospect thusly: “A boxer with no more than a dozen fights, none yet of the 10-round variety.” To our way of thinking, a prospect by nature is still in the preliminary-bout phase of his career.
We may loosen these parameters in the future. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of talented female boxers who, like their Japanese male counterparts in the smallest weight classes, are often pushed into title fights when, from a historical perspective, they are just getting started.
But for the time being, we will adhere to our operational definition. And within the window that we have created, Steven Navarro stood out. In his first year as a pro, “Kid Dynamite” left us yearning to see more of him.
Honorable mention: Australian heavyweight Teremoana Junior (5-0, 5 KOs)
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