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Burning Questions (And Speculative Answers) For 2012…RASKIN
In a sport with as many moving pieces, individual interests, and BS agendas as there are in boxing, nothing is ever entirely predictable. But as 2012 dawns, the year ahead feels even more unpredictable than usual. The HBO boxing department has a new leader, and he used to be the head of the Showtime boxing department. Consequently, the Showtime boxing department has a new leader, and he used to be an employee of Golden Boy Promotions. Over at ESPN, both the main man in front of the camera and the main man behind the scenes have stepped down. And switching from the guys in suits to the guys in trunks, my pound-for-pound number one, Floyd Mayweather, takes up residence at the Clark County Detention Center this Friday, my pound-for-pound number two, Manny Pacquiao, might just be in decline, and my pound-for-pound number three, Sergio Martinez, basically told HBO to suck it last week.
2012 is probably going to be a lot different than 2011 and 2010. (Except for one thing: 2010 was âthe year Mayweather and Pacquiao didnât fight each other,â 2011 was also âthe year Mayweather and Pacquiao didnât fight each other,â and 2012 just might be shaping up as âthe year Mayweather and Pacquiao didnât fight each other.â)
With this much uncertainty surrounding the sport of boxing as the calendar turns over, itâs a perfect time to ask and answer all of the burning questions on fight fansâ minds regarding the 12 months to come. Weâll start with the question we just canât seem to get away from, and move on from there:
Will Mayweather and Pacquiao fight each other?
Not in the first half of the year. But could it happen on one of those traditional pay-per-view blockbuster dates in September or November? Itâs highly possible that Floydâseeing a slipping Pacquiao and hearing a ticking clockâwill want it, highly possible that Bob Arum will recognize that the end of the Pacquiao era is nigh and begrudgingly pursue it, and a near-certainty that the fearless and fan-friendly Pacquiao will want it. I think the biggest X-factor is what happens with Pacquiaoâs fight in the spring. My guess is that heâll fight Juan Manuel Marquez for a fourth time. (Iâm not buying the idea of less marketable fights against Tim Bradley or Lamont Peterson, and I think Miguel Cotto is too smart to want a rematch with Pac.) And as we all know now, any fight against Marquez is a fight Pac-Man can lose. If he does lose, Pacquiao-Mayweather becomes pointless. If he winsâespecially if he does so without controversyâPacquiao-Mayweather is red hot again. The final guess here: Pacquiao fights Marquez, defeats him narrowly, and all parties are ready to cash in with Pacquiao-Mayweather in the fall, to the tune of 2.8 million PPV buys.
Will anything happen at heavyweight to make anyone in America care?
Only two things can move the needle at this point: a Klitschko losing or a serious new American contender emerging. The former ainât happening (although I wouldnât mind seeing a healthy Odlanier Solis get a rematch against Vitali; he has the skill to be less than a 10-1 underdog, which probably isnât true of any other potential challenger). So we need an American up-and-comer to get excited about, and Seth Mitchell, who performed as impressively as anyone could have hoped in his HBO debut in December, is the only guy with an outside chance. Unfortunately, I see the mediaâs need to find the next great heavyweight and the fact that the pressure canât be spread among numerous hopefuls as a formula for Mitchell to disappoint. Heâll struggle to an underwhelming decision win against a veteran contender to start the year, then heâll take heat for dialing back the competition to someone sub-Timor-Ibragimov the next time out. Heâll escape 2012 still unbeaten and a legit top-10 contender (in a division that goes only two deep, it should be noted), but the buzz on December 31 wonât be what it was on January 1.
What impact will Ken Hershman and Stephen Espinoza have?
From the looks of things, Hershmanâs job at HBO is going to be even more challenging than he probably expected, with Golden Boy having a built-in relationship with the new Showtime boss, with Victor Ortiz-Andre Berto II already jumping networks, with Sergio Martinez announcing that his next fight wonât be on HBO, and with Mayweather out of the mix for the first half of the year. It sure looks like the stage is set for Showtime to challenge HBOâs supremacy, even if they remain at a budgetary disadvantage. Then again, Hershman didnât earn the HBO job by being an ambition-less dummy. Sort of like how the peak of the WWF-WCW war from around 1996-â99 saw both companies pushing each other to reach new levels of entertainment, I suspect the HBO/Showtime shakeups will work out to the great benefit of boxing fans once the slow first month of 2012 has passed. (And I feel at least 63 percent confident in predicting that we wonât see Gary Russell Jr. in a four-rounder on either network at any time in 2012.)
Will we get Andre Ward vs. Lucian Bute?
Ward has already earned the right to call himself The Man at 168 pounds, but if he wants to be The Undisputed Man, he does still need to take care of business against Bute. And I suspect he intends to. Wardâs apparent disinterest in the Romanian-Canadian immediately following his Super Six finals victory over Carl Froch struck me as a negotiating ploy. Ward knows the fight belongs north of the border and if heâs going to concede home-ring advantage, he wants to at least hardball his way to the larger purse. Plus, Wardâs last five fights have come against Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham, and Froch, lasting an average of 11.8 rounds; heâs entitled to a tuneup. So in the spring expect Bute vs. Froch and Ward vs. someone he can knock out, and then in the fall expect Ward vs. Bute if Froch doesnât upset that plan.
Who will be the new Friday Night Fights studio host?
I assume weâll get this answer any day now, since, you know, thereâs an FNF broadcast scheduled for this Friday. But in the meantime, my quick prediction: Bernardo Osuna. Heâs a part of the ESPN family already, heâs polished in front of the camera, he knows boxing, and heâs bilingual, which is handy when it comes to interviewing certain guests or even translating from a distance for Joe and Teddy. I have no inside information on this, other than me talking to Osuna in Las Vegas in November and him saying he didnât know anything yet, but if you find out in a day or two that he got the gig, you heard it here first.
Whose opposition will piss fans off more, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. or Saul Alvarez?
Before I answer the question, allow me to follow my Ring Theory co-host Bill Dettloffâs lead and note that I will henceforth cease to refer to JCC Jr. as a âChavezâ because heâs unworthy of that surname, and instead refer to him as Julio Cesar Salad. Honestly, Salad and Canelo are being moved with near-equal calculated carefulness, but Salad is 4Âœ years older, so Canelo gets more of a pass if he spends another year fighting safe opposition. That said, Marco Antonio Rubio is a credible challenge for Salad, assuming Top Rank doesnât drug Rubio in the dressing room. So if Alvarez fights a total patsy in April, he might exceed Salad in terms of his heat index. This is a tough call, but Iâll go with Chavez as the greater whipping boy of the fans by yearâs end. The only thing I know for sure is this: Salad will not fight Sergio Martinez in 2012 and Alvarez will not fight Miguel Cotto in 2012, and yet both fringe contenders will insist on calling themselves âchampions.â
Which American former middleweight champion will have a greater impact in the boxing ring, Jermain Taylor or Kelly Pavlik?
This is a modified version of a question I asked Dettloff last week on Ring Theory, and Iâm asking it again because itâs fascinating that Taylor might be in a position to make a little noise again while his two-time conqueror, Pavlik, appears to have unraveled so severely in his personal life that his career might never resume. But Iâm going to go against the grain and select Pavlik as the answer to this question. If Pavlik fights in 2012âa major âif,â I realizeâthe tabloid-ish attention surrounding his first fight will guarantee that his impact exceeds Taylorâs. I think as long as Cameron Dunkin and company can haul Pavlik the hell outta Youngstown and get him into Robert Garciaâs gym in southern California, thereâs a good chance âThe Ghostâ will be in line for 2012âs Comeback of the Year.
What are the three most horrifying things Jose Sulaiman will say this year?
1. âThe WBC proudly supports Jerry Sandusky.â
2. âDid you see the way that bee-otch was dressed? She was asking for it!â
3. âI am pleased to announce I have been re-elected president of the WBC by a unanimous vote of the board of directors.â
Eric Raskin can be contacted at RaskinBoxing@yahoo.com. You can follow him on Twitter @EricRaskin and listen to new episodes of his podcast, Ring Theory, at http://ringtheory.podbean.com.
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Avila Perspective, Chap. 281: The Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia Show
Over the years bouts between old foes such as Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia tend to be surprising.
Yes, both are only 25 but have known each other for many years.
When undisputed super lightweight champion Haney (31-0, 15 KOs) steps into the prize ring at Barclays Center to meet challenger Garcia (24-1, 20 KOs) on Saturday, April 20, fans will be witnessing the continuation of a feud that began more than a decade ago.
And though the champion is a heavy favorite, familiarity is Garciaâs best weapon heading into their fight on the Golden Boy Promotions card that will be shown on PPV.COM with Jim Lampley and friends. DAZN pay-per-view is also streaming the card.
In many ways Haney and Garcia have ventured down the same path. From amateur sensations to fighting in Mexico while teens to asking for the biggest challenges available.
âWhichever version of Ryan shows up on April 20, I will be ready for him. Ryan Garcia is just another opponent to me,â said Haney who holds the WBC super lightweight title after his win over Regis Prograis.
The first time I saw Haney as a pro he battled the dangerous Mexican contender Juan Carlos Burgos at Pechanga Resort and Casino in Temecula. It was an impressive performance against a fighter who fought three times for a world title.
Haney was 19 at the time.
My first look at Garcia as a pro was in his first bout in the U.S. when he met Puerto Ricoâs Jonathan Cruz at the Exchange in downtown Los Angeles. The Boricua looked at Garcia and tried intimidating him with stares, taunts and the usual patter. During the fight both swung and missed until the second round when Garcia zeroed in and took him out.
Garcia had just turned 18, the legal age to fight in California.
Both fighters did not have the Olympics credentials that lead to fame. But their talent has allowed them to fight through the dense smoke that is professional boxing.
Haney has defeated numerous world champions such as Prograis, Vasyl Lomachenko and George Kambosos Jr., while Garcia has stopped champions Javier Fortuna and Luke Campbell.
As amateurs, Garcia and Haney battled six times with each winning three.
âThey know each other very well,â said Oscar De La Hoya of Golden Boy Promotions. âRyan is going to beat Devin Haney.â
Haney has a buttery-smooth style with one of the best jabs in boxing. Heâs very adept at keeping distance and not allowing anyone to fight him inside. His reflexes are outstanding, yet he seldom fights inside. Thatâs his weakness.
Garcia fights tall and has superb hand speed and a lightning quick left hook. Though his defense lacks tightness his ability to rip off three-punch combinations in a blink of an eye pauses opponents from bullying their way inside.
âThese guys always just look at me and look at me like I donât know how to box,â said Garcia on social media. âWhy was I one of the best fighters in the amateurs. Why was I a 15-time National championâŠwhy did I beat everyone I came across.â
Haney is a strong favorite by oddsmakers to defeat Garcia. But you can never tell when it comes to fighters that know each other well and are athletically gifted.
When Sergio Mora challenged Vernon Forrest he was a big underdog. When Tim Bradley fought Manny Pacquiao the first time, he was also the underdog. And when Andy Ruiz met Anthony Joshua few gave him a chance.
Haney and Garcia have history in the ring. It should be an interesting battle.
PPV.COM
Jim Lampley will be leading the broadcast on PPV.COM for the Haney-Garcia card at Barclays and texting with fans on the card live. He will be accompanied by journalists Lance Pugmire, Dan Conobbio and former champion Chris Algieri.
The PPV.COM broadcast begins at 5 p.m. PT. and is available in Canada and the USA.
Other News
MMA stars Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal will be holding a media day event on Friday, April 19, at NOVO at L.A. Doors open at 5:30 p.m.
Diaz and Masvidal will be boxing against each other in a grudge match on June 1 at the KIA Forum in Inglewood, Calif. The two MMA stars met five years at UFC 244 with Masvidal winning by TKO over Diaz due to cuts.
This is a grudge match, but under boxing rules.
Fight card in Commerce, Calif.
360 Promotions returns to Commerce Casino on Saturday April 20 with undefeated super lightweight Cain Sandoval leading the charge.
Sandoval (12-0) faces Angel Rebollar (8-3) in the main event that will be shown live on UFC Fight Pass. Also on the card are two female events including hot prospect Lupe Medina (5-0) versus Sabrina Persona (3-1) in a minimumweight clash.
Doors open at 4 p.m.
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Boxing Odds and Ends: The Heavyweight Merry-Go-Round
Boxing Odds and Ends: The Heavyweight Merry-Go-Round
There were few surprises when co-promoters Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren and their benefactor HE Turki Alalshikh held a press conference in London this past Monday to unveil the undercard for the Beterbiev-Bivol show at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on June 1. Most of the match-ups had already been leaked.
For die-hard boxing fans, Beterbiev-Bivol is such an enticing fight that it really doesnât need an attractive undercard. Two undefeated light heavyweights will meet with all four relevant belts on the line in a contest where the oddsmakers straddled the fence. Itâs a genuine âpick-âemâ fight based on the only barometer that matters, the prevailing odds.
But Beterbiev-Bivol has been noosed to a splendid undercard, a striking contrast to Saturdayâs Haney-Garcia $69.99 (U.S.) pay-per-view in Brooklyn, an event where the undercard, in the words of pseudonymous boxing writer Chris Williams, is an absolute dumpster fire.
The two heavyweight fights that will bleed into Beterbiev-Bivol, Hrgovic vs. Dubois and Wilder vs. Zhang, would have been stand-alone main events before the incursion of Saudi money.
Hrgovic-Dubois
Filip Hrgovic (17-0, 13 KOs) and Daniel Dubois (20-2, 19 KOs) fought on the same card in Riyadh this past December. Hrgovic, the Croatian, was fed a softie in the form of Australiaâs Mark De Mori who he dismissed in the opening round. Dubois, a Londoner, rebounded from his loss to Oleksandr Usyk with a 10th-round stoppage of corpulent Jarrell âBig Babyâ Miller.
Thereâs an outside chance that Hrgovic vs. Dubois may be sanctioned by the IBF for the world heavyweight title.
The May 18 showdown between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury has a rematch clause. The IBF is next in line in the rotation system for a unified heavyweight champion and the organization has made it plain that the winner of Usyk-Fury must fulfill his IBF mandatory before an intervening bout.
The best guess is that the Usyk-Fury winner will relinquish the IBF belt. If so, Hrgovic and Dubois may fight for the vacant title although a more likely scenario is that the organization will keep the title vacant so that the winner can fight Anthony Joshua.
Wilder-Zhang
The match between Deontay Wilder (43-3-1, 42 KOs) and Zhilei Zhang (26-2-1, 21 KOs) is a true crossroads fight as both Wilder, 38, and Zhang, who turns 41 in May, are nearing the end of the road and the loser (unless itâs a close and entertaining fight) will be relegated to the rank of a has-been. In fact, Wilder has hinted that this may be his final rodeo.
Both are coming off a loss to Joseph Parker.
Wilder last fought on the card that included Hrgovic and Dubois and was roundly out-pointed by a man he was expected to beat. Itâs a quick turnaround for Zhang who opposed Parker on March 8 and lost a majority decision.
Other Fights
Either of two other fights may steal the show on the June 1 event.
Raymond Ford (15-0-1, 8 KOs) meets Nick Ball (19-0-1, 11 KOs) in a 12-round featherweight contest. New Jerseyâs Ford will be defending the WBA world title he won with a come-from-behind, 12th-round stoppage of Otabek Kholmatov in an early contender for Fight of the Year. Liverpoolâs âWreckingâ Ball, a relentless five-foot-two sparkplug, had to settle for a draw in his title fight with Rey Vargas despite winning the late rounds and scoring two knockdowns.
Hamzah Sheeraz (19-0, 15 KOs) meets fellow unbeaten Austin âAmmoâ Williams (16-0, 11 KOs) in a 12-round middleweight match. East Londonâs Sheeraz, the son of a former professional cricket player, is unknown in the U.S. although he trained for his recent fights at the Ten Goose Boxing Gym in California. Riding a skein of 13 straight knockouts, he has a date with WBO title-holder Janibek Alimkhanuly if he can get over this hurdle.
The Forgotten Heavyweight
âUnbeaten for seven years, the man nobody wants to fight,â intoned ring announcer Michael Buffer by way of introduction. Buffer was referencing Michael Hunter who stood across the ring from his opponent Artem Suslenkov.
This scene played out this past Saturday in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. It was Hunterâs second fight in three weeks. On March 23, he scored a fifth-round stoppage of a 46-year-old meatball at a show in Zapopan, Mexico.
The second-generation âBounty Hunter,â whose only defeat prior to last weekend came in a 12-rounder with Oleksandr Usyk, has been spinning his wheels since TKOing the otherwise undefeated Martin Bakole on the road in London in 2018. Two fights against hapless opponents on low-budget cards in Mexico and a couple of one-round bouts for the Las Vegas Hustle, an entry in the fledgling and largely invisible Professional Combat League, are the sum total of his activity, aside from sparring, in the last two-and-a-half years.
Hunterâs chances of getting another big-money fight took a tumble in Tashkent where he lost a unanimous decision in a dull affair to the unexceptional Suslenkov who was appearing in his first 10-round fight. The scores of the judges were not announced.
You wonât find this fight listed on boxrec. As Jake Donovan notes, the popular website will not recognize a fight conducted under the auspices of a rogue commission. (Another fight you wonât find on boxrec for the same reason is Nico Ali Walshâs 6-round split decision over the 9-2-1 Frenchman, Noel Lafargue, in the African nation of Guinea on Dec. 16, 2023. You can find it on YouTube, but according to boxrec, boxingâs official record-keeper, it never happened.)
Anderson-Merhy Redux
The only thing missing from this past Saturdayâs match in Corpus Christi, Texas, between Jared Anderson and Ryad Merhy was the ghost of Robert Valsberg.
Valsberg, aka Roger Vaisburg, was the French referee who disqualified Ingemar Johansson for not trying in his match with LAâs Ed Sanders in the finals of the heavyweight competition at the 1952 Helsinki Olympics. Valsberg tossed Johansson out of the ring after two rounds and Johansson was denied the silver medal. The Swede redeemed himself after turning pro, needless to say, when he demolished Floyd Patterson in the first of their three meetings.
Merhy was credited with throwing only 144 punches, landing 34, over the course of the 10 rounds. Those dismal figures yet struck many onlookers as too high. (This reporter has always insisted that the widely-quoted CompuBox numbers should be considered approximations.)
Whatever the true number, it was a disgraceful performance by Merhy who actually showed himself to have very fast hands on the few occasions when he did throw a punch. With apologies to Delfine Persoon, a spunky lightweight, U.S. boxing promoters should think twice before inviting another Belgian boxer to our shores.
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Anderson Cruises by Vapid Merhy and Ajagba edges Vianello in Texas
Jared Anderson returned to the ring tonight on a Top Rank card in Corpus Christi, Texas. Touted as the next big thing in the heavyweight division, Anderson (17-0, 15 KOs) hardly broke a sweat while cruising past Ryad Merhy in a bout with very little action, much to the disgruntlement of the crowd which started booing as early as the second round. The fault was all Merhy as he was reluctant to let his hands go. Somehow, he won a round on the scorecard of judge David Sutherland who likely fell asleep for a round for which he could be forgiven.
Merhy, born in the Ivory Coast but a resident of Brussels, Belgium, was 32-2 (26 KOs) heading in after fighting most of his career as a cruiserweight. He gave up six inches in height to Anderson who was content to peck away when it became obvious to him that little would be coming back his way.
Anderson may face a more daunting adversary on Monday when he has a court date in Romulus, Michigan, to answer charges related to an incident in February where he drove his Dodge Challenger at a high rate speed, baiting the police into a merry chase. (Weirdly, Anderson entered the ring tonight wearing the sort of helmet that one associates with a race car driver.)
Co-Feature
In the co-feature, a battle between six-foot-six former Olympians, Italyâs Guido Vianello started and finished strong, but Efe Ajagba had the best of it in the middle rounds and prevailed on a split decision. Two of the judges favored Ajagba by 96-94 scores with the dissenter favoring the Italian from Rome by the same margin.
Vianello had the best round of the fight. He staggered Ajagba with a combination in round two. At the end of the round, a befuddled Ajagba returned to the wrong corner and it appeared that an upset was brewing. But the Nigerian, who trains in Las Vegas under Kay Koroma, got back into the fight with a more varied offensive attack and better head movement. In winning, he improved his ledger to 20-1 (14). Vianello, who sparred extensively with Daniel Dubois in London in preparation for this fight, declined to 12-2-1 in what was likely his final outing under the Top Rank banner.
Other Bouts of Note
In the opening bout on the main ESPN platform, 35-year-old super featherweight Robson Conceicao, a gold medalist for Brazil in the 2016 Rio Olympics, stepped down in class after fighting Emanuel Navarrete tooth-and-nail to a draw in his previous bout and scored a seventh-round stoppage of Jose Ivan Guardado who was a cooked goose after slumping to the canvas after taking a wicked shot to the liver. Guardado made it to his feet, but the end was imminent and the referee waived it off at the 2:27 mark.
Conceicao improved to 18-1 (9 KOs). It was the U.S. debut for Guardado (15-2-1), a boxer from Ensenada, Mexico who had done most of his fighting up the road in Tijuana.
Ruben Villa, the pride of Salinas, California, improved to 22-1 (7) and moved one step closer to a match with WBC featherweight champion Rey Vargas with a unanimous 10-round decision over Tijuanaâs Cristian Cruz (22-7-1). The judges had it 97-93 and 98-92 twice.
Cruz, the son of former IBF world featherweight title-holder Cristobal Cruz, was better than his record. He entered the bout on a 21-1-1 run after losing five of his first seven pro fights.
Cleveland southpaw Abdullah Mason, who turned 20 earlier this month, continued his fast ascent up the lightweight ladder with a fourth-round stoppage of Ronal Ron.
Mason (13-0, 11 KOs) put Ron on the canvas in the opening round with a short left hook. He scored a second knockdown with a shot to the liver. A flurry of punches, a diverse array, forced the stoppage at the 1:02 mark of round four. A 25-year-old SoCal-based Venezuelan, the spunky but out-gunned Ron declined to 14-6.
Charly Suarez, a 35-year-old former Olympian from the Philippines, ranked #5 at junior lightweight by the IBF, advanced to 17-0 (9) with a unanimous 8-round decision over SoCalâs Louie Coria (5-7).
This was a tactical fight. In the final round, Coria, subbing for 19-0 Henry Lebron, caught the Filipino off-balance and knocked him into the ropes which held him up. It was scored a knockdown, but came too little, too late for Coria who lost by scores of 76-75 and 77-74 twice.
Suarez, whose signature win was a 12th-round stoppage of the previously undefeated Aussie Paul Fleming in Sydney, may be headed to a rematch with Robson Conceicao. They fought as amateurs in 2016 in Kazakhstan and Suarez lost a narrow 6-round decision.
Photo credit: Mikey Willams / Top Rank via Getty Images
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