The Oddsman Checks In.

Tuesday, June 24…and if you have nothing to do, ESPN2 is showing Baby Joe Mesi (25-0)23 KO vs. Robert Davis (28-5)16 KO. In case your dinner plans get cancelled, this fight will be on around 8pm eastern time. Again, in this fight we see a very large favorite in Mesi at -600 and a come back on the dog around +400. I couldn't bring myself to lay -485 on the best heavyweight in the world, so you can't possibly convince me to lay a bigger number on a lesser fighter. So again, we ask ourselves what are the other options? Well, I found a sports book out there who is offering the total on the fight at 7½ rounds under -150 and the over is +110. That (other than the draw) is our only real betting option on this night. Mesi makes the under look attractive with 23 KO's in 25 fights; also, only 1 of his last 10 fights got to the 8th round which was against David Izon, the best opponent he has yet to face. Which really doesn't say too much, seeing Izon just lost to Alfred Cole by unanimous decision in 8. The under starts to look even better when we learn that Davis is familiar with the canvas. He was dropped twice by Michael Moorer in early rounds, but found a way to survive to the tenth and lose a decision.

He was also dropped twice by Frankie Swindell in the first, but again he was able to overcome that and won a ten round decision. So we know he can be dropped and we know Mesi is a big puncher, but the icing on the cake for me is that Davis was TKO'd by Michael Grant in round 3 just two fights ago. So to recap quickly: again, there is no value in betting either fighter. However, I do see some true value at going under 7½ rounds, even laying the -150 price. I think Mesi will get Davis out in 3 or 4. If you can find a price on Mesi By KO I would lay as much as -240 but no more than that. Remember, it’s not just about winning; it’s about the value of the play.