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PATERSON’S PREDICTION PAGE: Expert Calls on Hopkins-Kovalev

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“Nobody will ever do it five times because you know as well as I do that people get old too fast. I used to run six miles a day but now I got to make an effort for three. I can still do everything I want but I got to make appointments. Can’t do things on the spur of the moment like when you’re 20.”

Those candid words weren’t uttered by today’s elder statesman of boxing and its most distinguished defier of age erosion, Bernard Hopkins, who will turn 50 in January.

Wearing a chocolate brown suit, relaxing on a couch, muscles probably still twitching after a two mile run earlier that morning, a fighter with deluded intentions swirling around inside his head like a tornado, had just spoken to New York Times sports columnist George Vecsey. At 39, lofty mountains had already been scaled on more than a few occasions, memorably. However, one more victory, a victory which would propel Muhammad Ali out boxing’s abyss and onwards and upwards toward a shot at the near impossible, winning the heavyweight title for a fourth time, was always going to be as probable as a resurfacing of the Titanic.

Deep down, Ali knew it.

12 days later, on December 11, 1981, inside the Queen Elizabeth Sports Centre in the Bahamas’ capital, Nassau, the scene of an infamous demise for boxing’s foremost entertainer – in and out of the ring – was just as painful for the contingent of seated observers to view as it was for the great man himself to physically endure. Compared to how he moved around the ring, which was eloquently graceful and highly distinctive during the iconic decade the 60s, this Ali was almost statue-like whilst being undressed by the youthful hands of 27-year-old Trevor Berbick over the course of a 10 round points decision loss. Had he been around ten years earlier, Berbick would’ve been fortunate enough to have found himself on Ali’s payroll as a sparring partner.

In addition, three years after his final farewell, Ali was sadly diagnosed with Parkinson’s Syndrome, a disease with a much more prolonged impact than any jolting wallops he received from Joe Frazier, George Foreman, Larry Holmes, or Trevor Berbick, amongst others. It has has taken its toll to the point where he is now, for the most part, secluded to the confinement of a wheelchair.

Those words, the ones Ali, now 72, briefed Vecsey with 23 years ago, are ringing truer than ever today. Simple tasks in life many of us take for granted such as washing our faces or reaching for the TV remote control are long gone for him. Making a mere effort, now a sacrifice. Quick spur of the moment physical reaches, void.

Dear Bernard:

Hey, you. Yes, you, the youngest old man in the world.

Time to walk away into the horizon, brother. Win or lose, this Saturday against Sergey Kovalev, it’s time. Time to hang ’em darn gloves up.

If defeats to Taylor, Calzaghe and Dawson couldn’t push you into retirement, what will? Also, after those previous historic wins of recent years, you still couldn’t walk down those steps one last time. You’re stupidly getting caught up in a turbulent vicious circle – and you know it.

Time to vacate the premises.

Good luck, Saturday night.

Yours truly,

Robbi Paterson

Hopkins vs. Kovalev is a 12-round unification bout for the IBF, WBA and WBO Light Heavyweight World titles, presented by Golden Boy Promotions and Main Events in association with Caesars Atlantic City, Corona Extra, AT&T and Hortitsia Vodka. The HBO World Championship Boxing telecast begins at 10:45 p.m. ET/PT. Coverage starts at 2:00 am in the UK on Boxnation.

Prediction time – I’ve reached out and spoke to various experts and asked them for their take on the outcome. Enjoy, and please add your own, in the TSS forum.

Chris Cozzone (Fightnews.com): I’m predicting an ugly fight ending in a majority decision for Hopkins. B-Hop will put on an unpretty clinic, with plenty of tying up and complaints, while a frustrated Kovalev will try to land bombs, several of which will have judges seeing a close fight.

Matt Hamilton (ESNewsreporting.com): Most – including the bookmakers – will make Sergey Kovalev a strong favorite in this one. But for me it’s one thing to knock over less cultured, less refined and perhaps critically less proven campaigners at world level, it’s another to take out the ilk of Bernard Hopkins. Hopkins has been discounted before and whilst Kovalev presents an entirely qualitatively disparate dilemma to say Kelly Pavlik, I can’t help but assume B-Hop provides as close to a litmus test of authenticity as exists for the multitude lofty claims surrounding the Kovalev phenomenon. Kovalev is a favourite for a reason but I’m going to stick my neck on the block and predict a Hopkins win by wideish unanimous decision.

Ben Dirs (BBC Sport and author of the book ‘The Hate Game: Benn, Eubank and British Boxing’s Bitterest Rivalry’): Hopkins on a split decision.

Robbi Paterson (TheSweetScience.com): It’s going to be an interesting evening. I’m firmly in the corner of Kovalev trainer John David Jackson when he says it’s Hopkins’ fight if he dictates the tempo – a slow tempo. He’ll be looking for Kovalev to do more flowing than thinking, which just happens to be very difficult to accomplish and maintain against Hopkins, who’s style and superbly implemented counter punching approach makes many opponents ‘pause.’ See, that’s the thing about fighting Hopkins effectively; it’s about taking him out of his comfort zone. The first 3-4 rounds will be extremely crucial. During those moments, Hopkins needs to defuse Kovalev by making doubts creep into his mind. Apart from Kovalev winning by result of a one punch knockout, for me, Hopkins wins on points.

Diego Morilla (HBO.com, RingTV.com, XN Sports.com): Through the last few years, Hopkins has been able to demonstrate that boxing is not all about speed and power, and he has placed experience and ring IQ even above those two virtues, redesigning and reshuffling the pieces of the puzzle that he presents to his opponents in each one of his fights with the ability of a wizard. But against a rangy, powerful, skilled and motivated fighter like Kovalev, he’ll need much more than that. So far, few fighters have been able to land more than two meaningful punches in a row against Hopkins, or at least one with enough power to unsettle him. My bet, unfortunately, is that Kovalev will be able to execute either one of these feats (or both) to bring The Alien’s career to a halt, once and for all. Kovalev TKO 10 Hopkins.

Mikey Garcia (WBO world super featherweight champion): Hopkins by decision.

Jeff Mayweather (Boxing/MMA trainer): Interesting fight. Kovalev should win but no guarantee. He hasn’t fought anyone near Hopkins’ calibre or smarts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hopkins pull-off the upset. Kovalev by close decision.

Randy Gordon (tss.ib.tv/SiriusXM radio host): I am finding this the toughest pick I have ever had to make, that’s how even I think this fight is, despite the fact they are totally different fighters. Kovalev has the power. B-Hop has the skill. Kovalev has the youth. B-Hop has the experience. Kovalev is like a bomb, set to blow up and do damage. B-Hop must be the bomb squad. He can’t simply jump on the bomb and try to rip it apart. If he does, it will most likely detonate. He must take his time, diffusing it wire by wire, piece by piece. Can he do it? I say he can. I look for a distance fight which will be close and competitive, especially in the first half of the fight. Then, the massive skill and experience of B-Hop will take over. Rough and dirty at times, this will be an interesting fight. B-Hop by unanimous decision.

Jason Pribila (Secondsout.com): I had the honour of sitting ringside for Hopkins’ masterpiece vs Pavlik. Bernard looked old in the opening frames vs Pascal in their first fight. Kovalev won’t let him off hook. And, John David Jackson will prepare Kovalev for a “Graterford Stare” at the weigh-in. Kovalev TKO 6.

Clay Moyle (Prizefightingbooks.com and author of the book ‘Sam Langford: Boxing’s Greatest Uncrowned Champion’): I’ll go with Hopkins by decision.

Abel Sanchez (trainer of world middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin): It could end up being a great fight. I believe it is a 50/50 fight. It’s there for Kovalev to win it if he boxes, maintains distance and doesn’t get caught up in the machismo of trying to knock Hopkins out. Hopkins will school you if you are to aggressive and over anxious. Hopkins by decision.

Ben Doughty (TipTV.co.uk): While I could never write the ‘Alien’ off, I am inclined to feel that this will be a step too far for Hopkins. He has had an amazing run and his place in history is secure but we should remember that he lost fair and square to the younger Chad Dawson a couple of years ago and Kovalev is fresh, capable and dangerous. Bernard’s body of work is vastly superior with Nathan Cleverly about the most notable scalp on Kovalev’s record. But I suspect Kovalev will make Hopkins fight at a pace that doesn’t suit him and can win on points.

Jeffrey Freeman (KO Digest): This is a scary boxing blockbuster in the making! Here’s a sneak preview of coming attractions: a 49-year-old Bernard “The Alien” Hopkins gets launched from the ring by the crushing power of a real-life killer with an a**-kicking strategy, Sergey “The Krusher” Kovalev. In Atlantic City, the Russian will execute the former executioner from Philadelphia with a prophetic injection of phantom punching precision. It’s a black and white remake of Rocky Marciano knocking out Joe Louis except this “Krusher” sheds no tears. To him, it’s a dark comedy, or worse, a dirty movie. Wherever his spaceship crash-lands inside old Boardwalk Hall, the “Alien” will be writhing around in agony, but this time it’s no act. Closing credits: If the fight somehow makes it to the scorecards, the rotten tomatoes review was written and executive produced by judges Layton, Ortiz, and Sammartino. Sergey Kovalev TKO4 Bernard Hopkins.

Rudy Hernandez (Los Angeles based trainer): If Kovalev is anywhere as smart as Nicholas Walters (who knocked out Nonito Donaire for the WBA featherweight title on Oct 18) he wins by knockout. But I believe that Hopkins will find the easy way out and claim injury.

Allan Scotto (Maxboxing.com): I think Hopkins takes the decision. Much more experience and very crafty.

Sean Crose (Boxinginsider.com): Man, this one is most certainly NOT easy to pick. I said I would never go against Hopkins again, but I’m going to have to eat my words in this case. Here’s the thing – Kovalev can do more than just punch. He’s an adept ring technician. Add that to the fact that the man can literally knock a person down with no more than a jab and you’ve got a deadly combination on your hands. I see this one being stopped in the later rounds after it becomes clear the Alien can’t outsmart the Krusher and the heavy punches start to really take their toll. Kovalev by TKO, 11th round.

Leighton Ginn (Desurtsun.com): I have Kovalev. I hate to go against Hopkins but Kovalev might be too much.

Barry Jones (Boxnation pundit and former WBO world super featherweight champion): It’s a hard one to call as Kovalev’s style is suited to Hopkins. But saying that I’m going for Kovalev to win, with Hopkins looking for a way out and possibly getting disqualified.

Springs Toledo (TheSweetScience.com and author of the book ‘The Gods of War’): I’m actively recommending this fight to non-boxing fans because if gray-bearded Hopkins happens to defeat the most dangerous light heavyweight in the world, it will be an historic accomplishment. There’s a caveat though: Hopkins will have to weather early storms which will be fun to watch, but then he’ll slow the pace, maul, and make the fight an eyesore. If he doesn’t neutralize Kovalev with spoiler tactics, he will provoke him into unthinking aggression and catch him with counters. A part of Hopkins’s training regimen may be learning Russian slurs to use during clinches. I’m going with age and guile for this one; Hopkins by controversial SD or DQ.

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For Whom the Bell Tolled: 2024 Boxing Obituaries PART ONE (Jan.-June)

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Here in our annual end-of-year report, we pay homage to the boxing notables who left us in the past year in a two-part story. May they rest in peace.

January

Jan. 22 – CAMERON DUNKIN – Named the BWAA Manager of the Year in 2007, Dunkin was involved with more than 30 world title-holders including Diego Corrales, Kelly Pavlik, and Tim Bradley. It was said of him that no one was better at spotting a diamond-in-the-rough at an amateur boxing tourney. At age 67 in Las Vegas after a long battle with pancreatic cancer.

Jan. 31 – NORMAN “BUMPY” PARRA – Active from 1962 to 1968, Parra, a U.S. Army veteran, was 17-4-5 in documented fights and was briefly recognized as the California bantamweight champion. In retirement he trained several fighters and established several boxing clubs for disadvantaged youth in the San Diego area. At age 84 in San Diego.

February

Feb. 2 – KAZUKI ANAGUCHI – He lost consciousness in his dressing room after losing a close 10-round decision to Seiyo Tsatsumi in Tokyo on Dec, 23, 2003, and spent more than a month in a deep coma before succumbing to his head injury. The see-saw contest, the semi-final to a Naoya Inoue title fight, was named the Japan Domestic Fight of the Year. An Osaka-born bantamweight, Anaguchi was 23.

Feb. 4 – CARL WEATHERS – He appeared in dozens of movies and TV shows but would be best remembered for portraying the Muhammad Ali-inspired character Apollo Creed opposite Sylvester Stallone in the first four installments of the “Rocky” franchise. At his home in Los Angeles where he passed away in his sleep of an undisclosed illness at age 76.

Feb. 13 – IGNACIO ESPINAL – a 1968 Olympian, he never won a world title but had the misfortune of competing in the era of Miguel Canto, arguably the greatest flyweight ever. He was 0-2-1 vs Canto across 35 closely-contested rounds and finished 35-14-4. In Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic, his birthplace, at age 75.

March

March 4 – JIMMY HEAIR – Raised in Mississippi and Colorado, the son of a Pentecostal minister, he came to the fore in Los Angeles in the mid-1970s, the glory days of the Olympic Auditorium. Heair won his first 33 fights, rising to #3 in The Ring rankings at lightweight and finished 94-34-1 (65 KOs) during a 19-year career in which he answered the bell for 862 rounds. At age 71 at a nursing home in Okolona, Mississippi, after a long battle with pugilistic dementia.

March 22 – ALESIA GRAF – A Belarus-born German, Graf was active as recently as 2019 when she fought Dina Thorslund for the WBO world super bantamweight title. She finished 29-8 with five of her losses coming in legitimate world title fights. At age 43 in Stuttgart of undisclosed causes.

March 22 – BOB LEE SR. – A former police detective, he was the Acting Commissioner of the New Jersey Athletic Commission when he left to found the International Boxing Federation (IBF) in 1983. As president, he instituted several important safety features but his reputation was sullied when he was convicted of taking bribes for higher ratings for which he served 22 months in a federal prison. At age 90 in Edison, New Jersey.

March 26 – LAVELL FINGER – A National Golden Gloves champion at 138 pounds, Lavell and his twin brother Terrell (who passed away in 2019) turned pro on the same card in their hometown of St. Louis in 1989. Lavell was 25-1 when he retired in 2009, returning six years later for three more fights. At age 55 in Katy, Texas.

March 31 – JAN KIES – The South African southpaw answered the bell for 230 rounds during a nine-year career that began in 1969, finishing 31-11. His best win came early in his career when he knocked out former world title-holder Jean Josselin in 63 seconds, sending the Frenchman off into retirement. At age 76 in Krugersdorp, SA.

April

April 7 – RICKEY PARKEY – Active from 1981 to 1994, Parkey lost his last 12 fights to finish 22-20, but in his prime was one of the world’s top cruiserweights. He briefly held he IBF version of the world 190-pound title, a diadem he lost to Evander Holyfield who stopped him in three rounds. At age 67 at a nursing home in his hometown of Murfreesboro, Tennessee, a victim of lung cancer.

April 11 – GARY SHAW – He began his career in boxing as an inspector with the New Jersey Athletic Commission and went on to promote or co-promote some of the highest-grossing fights of the early 20th century before crossing over to MMA. On his 79th birthday at his home in South Florida where he had been bedridden following a January heart attack.

April 15 – WILLIE LIMOND – The Scotsman won a slew of regional titles after turning pro as a lightweight in 1999, finishing with a record of 42-6. In his most recent bout, in September of last year, he was stopped in eight rounds in a heavily-hyped domestic showdown with former three-division title-holder Ricky Burns. At age 45 at a hospital in the Glasgow suburb of Airdie nine days after suffering an apparent seizure while driving.

April 27 – ARDI NDEMBO – A Congolese heavyweight with an undefeated record (8-0, 7 KOs), Ndembo was knocked unconscious on April 5 in Miami while representing the Las Vegas team in the fledgling World Combat League. A 27-year-old father of two, he left the ring on a stretcher, was placed in a medical coma, and died 22 days later without regaining consciousness.

May

May 20 – IRISH PAT MURPHY – A welterweight from West New York, New Jersey, Murphy opened his career with 25 straight wins, earning him a date with Canadian champion Donato Paduano who saddled him with his first defeat. Their match at Madison Square Garden was the main event on a card with George Foreman and Chuck Wepner in supporting bouts. He finished 34-14-2 in a 13-year career that began in 1967. At age 74 at his home in Secaucus, NJ.

May 21 – ART JIMMERSON – A cruiserweight during most of his career, Jimmerson fought the likes of Orlin Norris, Vassiliy Jirov, and Arthur Williams. He lost his last nine fights before transitioning to MMA, finishing his boxing career with a record of 33-18. At age 60 of an apparent aneurism while driving to work at a UFC gym in Los Angeles.

June

June 15 – ENRIQUE PINDER – He became the fifth fighter from Panama to win a world title when he took the WBA/WBC bantamweight belts from Rafael Herrera in 1972, winning a 15-round unanimous decision. His title reign lasted only six months and he left the sport with a 35-7-2 record. In Panama City at age 62 where he had been dealing with heart problems.

June 26 – STEFFEN TANGSTAD – A two-time European heavyweight champion, the Norwegian retired in 1986 with a 24-2-2 record after being stopped in the fourth round by defending IBF world heavyweight champion Mihael Spinks. In retirement he remained in the public eye in Scandinavia as a TV boxing commentator. In Tonsberg, Norway at age 65 after a long battle with a neurological disorder that left him partially paralyzed.

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Oleksandr Usyk is the TSS 2024 Fighter of the Year

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Six years ago, Oleksandr Usyk was named the Sugar Ray Robinson 2018 Fighter of the Year by the Boxing Writers Association of America. Usyk, who went 3-0 in 2018, boosting his record to 16-0, was accorded this honor for becoming the first fully unified cruiserweight champion in the four-belt era.

This year, Usyk, a former Olympic gold medalist, unified the heavyweight division, becoming a unified champion twice over. On the men’s side, only two other boxers, Terence Crawford (light welterweight and welterweight) and Naoya Inoue (bantamweight and super bantamweight) have accomplished this feat.

Usyk overcame the six-foot-nine goliath Tyson Fury in May to unify the title. He then repeated his triumph seven months later with three of the four alphabet straps at stake. Both matches were staged at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Fury was undefeated before Usyk caught up with him.

In the first meeting, Usyk was behind on the cards after seven frames. Fury won rounds 5-7 on all three scorecards. It appeared that the Gypsy King was wearing him down and that Usyk might not make it to the finish. But in round nine, the tide turned dramatically in his favor. In the waning moments of the round, Usyk battered Fury with 14 unanswered punches. Out on his feet, the Gypsy King was saved by the bell.

In the end the verdict was split, but there was a strong sentiment that the right guy won.

The same could be said of the rematch, a fight with fewer pregnant moments. All three judges had Usyk winning eight rounds. Yes, there were some who thought that Fury should have been given the nod but they were in a distinct minority.

Usyk’s record now stands at 23-0 (14). Per boxrec, the Ukrainian southpaw ended his amateur career on a 47-fight winning streak. He hasn’t lost in 15 years, not since losing a narrow decision to Russian veteran Egor Mekhontsev at an international tournament in Milan in September of 2009.

Oleksandr Usyk, notes Paulie Malignaggi, is that rare fighter who is effective moving backwards or forwards. He is, says Malignaggi, “not only the best heavyweight of the modern era, but perhaps the best of many…..At the very least, he could compete with any heavyweight in history.”

Some would disagree, but that’s a discussion for another day. In 2024, Oleksandr Usyk was the obvious pick for the Fighter of the Year.

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A No-Brainer: Turki Alalshikh is the TSS 2024 Promoter of the Year

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Years from now, it’s hard to say how Turki Alalshikh will be remembered.

Alalshikh, the head of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. Some see him as a poacher, a man who snatched away big fights that would have otherwise landed in places like Las Vegas, New York, and London, and planted them in a place with no prizefighting tradition whatsoever merely for the purpose of “sportswashing.” If that be the case, Alalshikh’s superiors, the royal family, will turn off the spigot once it is determined that this public relations campaign is no longer needed, at which time the sport will presumably recede into the doldrums from whence it came.

Be that as it may, there is no doubt that boxing is in much better shape today than it was just a few years ago and that Alalshikh, operating under the rubric of Riyadh Season, is the reason why.

One of the most persistent cavils lobbied against professional boxing is that the best match-ups never get made or else languish on the backburner beyond their “sell-by” date, cheating the fans who don’t get to see the match when both competitors are at their peak. This is a consequence of the balkanization of the sport with each promoter running his fiefdom in his own self-interest without regard to the long-term health of the sport.

With his hefty budget, Alalshikh had the carrot to compel rival promoters to put down their swords and put their most valuable properties in risky fights and he seized the opportunity. All of the sport’s top promoters – Frank Warren and Eddie Hearn (pictured below), Bob Arum, Oscar De La Hoya, Tom Brown, Ben Shalom, and others – have done business with His Excellency.

Frank Warren and Eddie Hearn Flank the big Cheese

The two most significant fights of 2024 were the first and second meetings between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury. The first encounter was historic, begetting the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the four-belt era. Both fights were staged in Saudi Arabia as part of Riyadh Season, the months-long sports and entertainment festival instrumental in westernizing the region.

The Oct. 12 fight in Riyadh between undefeated light heavyweights Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol produced another unified champion. This wasn’t a great fight, but a fight good enough to command a sequel. (Beterviev, going the distance for the first time in his pro career, won a majority decision.) The do-over, buttressed by an outstanding undercard, will come to fruition on Feb. 22 in Riyadh.

Turki Alalshikh didn’t do away with pay-per-view fights, but he made them more affordable. The price tag for Usyk-Fury II in the U.S. market was $39.99. By contrast, the last PBC promotion, the Canelo vs. Berlanga fight on Amazon Prime Video, carried a tag of $89.95 for non-Prime subscribers.

Almost half the U.S. population resides in the Eastern Time Zone. For them, the main event of a Riyadh show goes in the mid- to late-afternoon. This is a great blessing to fight fans disrespected by promoters whose cards don’t end until after midnight, and that goes double for fight fans in the U.K. who can now watch more fights at a more reasonable hour instead of being forced to rouse themselves before dawn to catch an alluring match anchored in the United States.

In November, it was announced that Alalshikh had purchased The Ring magazine. The self-styled “Bible of Boxing” was previously owned by a company controlled by Oscar De La Hoya who acquired the venerable magazine in 2007.

With the news came Alalshikh’s assertion that the print edition of the magazine would be restored and that the publication “would be fully independent.”

That remains to be seen. One is reminded that Alalshikh revoked the press credential of Oliver Brown for the Joshua-Dubois fight on Sept. 21 at London’s iconic Wembley Stadium because of comments Brown made in the Daily Telegraph that cast a harsh light on the Saudi regime.

There were two national anthems that night, “God Save the King” sharing the bill, as it were, with the Saudi national anthem. Considering the venue and the all-British pairing, that rubbed many Brits the wrong way.

The Ring magazine will always be identified with Nat Fleischer who ran the magazine from its inception in 1922 until his death in 1972 at age 84. It was written of Fleischer that he was the closest thing to a czar that the sport of boxing ever had. Turki Alalshikh now inherits that mantle.

It’s never a good thing when one man wields too much power. We don’t know how history will judge Turki Alalshikh, but naming him the TSS Promoter of the Year was a no-brainer.

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