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Prediction: Khan Will Dominate Peterson in Rematch

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KhanPeterson Hogan35Prediction: Amir Khan will thoroughly dominate Lamont Peterson in their rematch on May 19.

If Amir Khan wants to take the next step into the ‘great’ or ‘elite’ territory of the welterweight ranks, he needs to win his rematch with Lamont Peterson in dominant fashion. And I think he will.

In short, Amir Khan is simply the superior fighter of the two. Peterson’s backstory is incredible and inspiring. As a prizefighter, he’s something short of great. His toughness and determination are his only discernable strengths as neither his speed nor his power are enough to win a fight against top competition.

Perhaps to a fault, Amir Khan is a crowd-pleasing fighter. His fights are never dull. He throws a good volume of punches and obliges any willing party in a slugfest. If you stand in front of Amir Khan, you’re likely to have a really tough night.  At 25, he’s also entering the prime of his boxing years.

Khan and Peterson’s first fight, on Dec. 10, was thrilling, if not marred by refereeing controversy. I think the referee did a pretty poor job throughout the fight, and any fight that has fans and writers both mentioning the ref in the first breath of a fight recap means the ref played too large of a role in the outcome. The two points taken from Amir Khan for pushing definitely impacted the scoring, but they weren’t completely unwarranted. Amir Khan did push continually throughout the fight, and that’s not legal according to the rules. That said, it was a ticky-tacky interpretation of the rule and a one-point deduction was certainly enough.  Furthermore, the pushing was largely a bi-product of Lamont Peterson consistently leading with his head. In what proved to be the strategic move that won him the fight, Lamont Peterson led with his head and backed Amir Khan up all night. In some sense, it was really effective aggression (very influential in ringside scoring). Effectiveness aside, it directly led to most of the pushing. Amir Khan operates best in space, and he needed to create separation between himself and Peterson, so his natural reaction was to push him away. Technically, it was illegal; but it was a bad call to take points away for the minor infraction. Still, it wasn’t the referee’s fault that Amir Khan walked away without his hand raised.

This gets to my main point: Amir Khan should have made adjustments to control the distance and pace of the fight, and I’m confident he will do just that in their rematch.

Tactical issues that Khan should—and better–have resolved for this fight (and if he has, it will be a dominant victory):

1)    Learn how to hold. Granted this, too, is technically illegal, Bernard Hopkins made a living late in his career by picking his shots, and then holding. It’s not always fun to watch, but it’s wildly effective. Especially when Khan gets hurt, he needs to learn to grab a hold of his opponent so they stop hitting him. He hasn’t yet displayed this quality that veteran fighters adopt.  Seeing Devon Alexander employ this strategy of landing hard, clean shots and then holding Marcos Maidana this past weekend was a perfect example to follow. While mildly underwhelming, it was an extremely decisive victory that put Alexander in line for a big fight in a lucrative division. Frankly, Alexander likely learned from watching Khan fail to contain Maidana in the later rounds in their Fight of the Year winning battle just a year ago.

** Side note: I think you’ll know all you need to know about Khan from his Maidana fight. He’s by far the superior fighter/boxer (and you get to see his strong body punching), but his willingness to engage and refusal to hold are paramount. Khan is fun to watch, offensively skilled, and extremely vulnerable to power punches. Oh, and he can bullied. Khan fights fire with fire, but if you’re willing to take a few punches coming in, you can back him into the ropes and force him into a brawl. Despite being neither granite-chinned nor very difficult, Khan has no problem mixing it up in the pocket.

2)    Become a better inside fighter/force an inside fight. If he stands his ground in the center of the ring and forces a war of attrition/uppercuts, he would dismantle Lamont Peterson. His body punching, speed and accuracy would overwhelm Peterson.

3)    Get off the ropes. In addition to rolling some punches, Amir needs to learn to just get out of a bad situation. He doesn’t exactly embody the term ring generalship, and frankly he does not look like he’s being trained by the best trainer in the world (more to come on this below). He needs to circle away, land shots, and take the center of the ring again. He essentially needs to do what Miguel Cotto did in his rematch with Antonio Margarito (easier to do against a fighter as shot/slow as Margarito than a hungry Lamont Peterson). With Khan’s pedigree, this should’ve been resolved years ago.

If he can make any one of those changes, he wins this fight easily. If he makes any 2+ of them, he’ll win by a near shutout/KO. Lamont Peterson simply cannot compete with Amir Khan on even terms. The only way Peterson remains competitive is if Khan allows him to dictate the pace and location of the fight.  This leads me to my next point… these are issues solved in the gym.

If Amir Khan would have consistently spun off of the ropes (which he did intermittently) rather than push off, this rematch never would have happened and Khan would be off to a fight bearing more financial significance. This also would not have been that close of a fight. Amir Khan (same as in the Maidana fight where he nearly was stopped) cannot get off the ropes when he’s tired/hurt. He also does not know how to fight off the ropes. If you watch the classic Mayweather v. Jose Luis Castillo fight (the first one), you’ll see what it looks like to effectively fight off of the ropes. It’s something Floyd’s done his whole career. Now, to be fair, Floyd is a gifted HOF-bound fighter that has skills Amir Khan could only dream of.  BUT, when he needed to, Floyd stuck his heels in the center of the ring and refused to be backed down by a far better fighter than Lamont Peterson.  Khan either needs to learn how to fight on the ropes or control the pace/distance enough to not end up on them. This is where I question Freddie Roach. How is he not preparing his fighter with enough tools/tricks to stay off of the ropes when that one adjustment would clearly win him the fight?

From a personal standpoint, I think we’ll learn a lot about Freddie Roach in this fight. If he still has what it takes to be a premier trainer, this fight won’t be close. Roach seems to not give a ton of tactical advice to his fighters (which can be seen on “On Freddie Roach”) in between rounds. He doesn’t help them make adjustments anymore. I also think this was a major factor in the most recent Juan Manuel Marquez fight against Manny Pacquiao. Manny kept falling into the same traps throughout the fight, and Freddie was not telling him how to avoid them (lead uppercuts and/or a stronger conviction to a jab would have done the trick).

To be clear, I’m not questioning the merits of a deserving (and recently-elected) Hall of Famer in Freddie Roach. Surely, he turned a 122-lb Filipino fighter from a fireball that only had a 1-2 into one of the greatest offensive fighters of all time. But how much of that was the trainer and how much of that is due to the athlete? Well, I guess I am questioning the merits a little bit. All I’m saying is that he has the better horse in this Khan-Peterson rematch, and any one of a few tactical changes that he could implement in the gym should easily get his fighter a victory.

Amir Khan is yet to truly dominate a great opponent. Marco Antonio Barrera was well past his prime when they fought, and as much as I like Paulie Malignaggi, he epitomizes the term ‘gatekeeper’. If you can’t beat him convincingly, you’re not destined to be a world beater. Peterson isn’t that great opponent, but in order to get his chance at beating a top tier fighter and avoid being looped into that ‘good, but not great’ category, Khan needs to have one hell of a night in this rematch. Again, I think he will.

This fight has more significance to the state of boxing than one would think. This 140-154-lb weight classes have been among the most exciting/best divisions in boxing for the last decade. If Manny takes care of his business against Timothy Bradley (no guarantee, mind you) and Floyd turns Cotto into a gatekeeper, what’s left in these weight classes? The re-emerging Devon Alexander? Not exactly a must-buy PPV name.

 If Amir Khan can make the slight aforementioned adjustments to his game, he will win and look good doing so. If he’s able to do that, he can position himself for countless big fights in this division. If not, let’s hope Canelo is as good as advertised (he’s not yet a world-class fighter), because he’ll be one of the few shining stars left in these ranks.

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Results and Recaps from Riyadh where Artur Beterbiev Unified the 175-Pound Title

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For the first time in the history of the 175-pound class, all four meaningful belts were on the line when Artur Beterbiev locked horns with Dmitry Bivol today at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. When the smoke cleared, Beterbiev prevailed on a majority decision, adding Bivol’s WBA and lineal title to his own collection of belts to emerge as the undisputed light heavyweight champion.

This was a classic confrontation between a boxer and a puncher. Beterbiev had won all 20 of his pro fights inside the distance. Bivol was also undefeated but had scored only nine stoppages among his 23 wins and nine of his 10 previous fights had gone the full 12 rounds. As an amateur, Beterbiev had lost twice to Oleksandr Usyk, the second of those setbacks in the quarterfinal round of the 2012 London Olympics, and it was no surprise that the 33-year-old Bivol, the younger man by six years, went to post a small favorite.

This proved to be a tactical fight that was a disappointment when measured against the pre-fight hype. Neither man was ever in jeopardy of going down and at the conclusion both acknowledged they could have done better.

In the first two rounds, Bivol was credited with out-landing Beterbiev 26-10. But the template was set. Although Bivol landed more punches in the early-going, one could see that Beterbiev was stronger and that his straight-line pressure would likely pay dividends over his opponent who burned up more energy moving side-to-side.

Beterbiev showed no ill effects from the torn meniscus that forced him to withdraw from the originally scheduled date (June 1). At the conclusion, two of the judges favored him (116-112, 115-113) and the other had it a draw (114-114).

IBF Cruiserweight Title Fight

Australian southpaw Jai Opetaia, widely regarded as the best cruiserweight on the planet, took charge in the opening round and wore down Jack Massey whose trainer Joe Gallagher wisely pulled him out at the two-minute mark of the sixth round.

Opetaia, who repeated his win over Maris Briedis in his previous bout, sending the talented Latvian off into retirement, improved to 26-0 (20 KOs) in what was his third straight appearance in this ring. A 31-year-old Englishman, Massey lost for the third time in 25 pro starts.

Opetaia’s next fight is expected to come against the winner of the forthcoming match between Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez and Chris Billam-Smith. They risk their respective belts next month on a Golden Boy Promotions card here in Riyadh.

Other Bouts of Note

The bout between heavyweights Fabio Wardley and Frazer Clarke was the semi-wind-up. It was a rematch of their March 31 tussle in London. At the end of that bruising 12-round barnburner, Wardley was more marked-up but remained undefeated and retained his British title when the judges returned a draw. Clarke likewise skirted defeat after opening his pro career 8-0.

Today’s sequel was a brutal, one-sided fight that never saw a second bell. It was all over at the 2:22 mark of the opening round, dictating a long intermission before the featured attraction even though it would commence 15 minutes ahead of schedule, going off at 3 pm PT.

Both men came out swinging but the Ipswich man, Wardley, had heavier ammunition. A big right hand left Clarke with a visible dent near his left ear. When the end came, Clarke, was slumped against the ropes, his eyes glazed and his jaw looking as if it may have been broken. (He was removed to a hospital where he was reportedly being treated for a fractured cheekbone.)

Wardley, who carried 242 pounds on his six-foot-five frame, never had a proper amateur career, but having knocked out 17 of his 19 opponents, he stands on the cusp of some big-money fights. “I’d be shocked if he’s not fighting for a world title next year,” said his promoter Frank Warren.

In a battle between two 35-year-old middleweights, Chris Eubank Jr advanced to 34-3 (25 KOs) with a seventh-round stoppage of Poland’s Kamil Szeremeta (25-3-2). A 25/1 favorite, Eubank had his Polish adversary on the canvas four times before the bout was halted at the 1:50 mark of the seventh frame. The match played out in a manner mindful of Szeremeta’s bout with Gennady Golovkin in 2020, another bad night at the office for the overmatched Pole.

The knockdowns came in rounds one, six, and twice in round seven. The final knockdowns were the result of body punches. Szeremeta had his moments, but these were due largely to Eubank’s lapses in concentration; he was never really in any danger.

After Eubank had his hand raised, Conor Benn entered the ring and confronted him. The sons of British boxing luminaries were initially set to fight on Oct. 8, 2022. That match, expected to draw a full house to London’s 20,000-seat O2 Arena, was shipwrecked by the British Boxing Board of Control. Benn’s antics in Riyadh are an indication that it may yet come to fruition.

In a 10-round contest, Skye Nicolson outclassed Raven Chapman, winning by scores of 99-91 and 98-92 twice. The Aussie was making her fourth start of 2024 and the third defense of her WBC featherweight title.

Nicolson, who improved to 12-0 (1), hopes that her next title defense is in Australia where she has fought only once since turning pro, that back in 2022, but she would gladly put that on the backburner for a date with Amanda Serrano. It was the first pro loss for Chapman (9-1), a 30-year-old Englishwoman.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 300: Eastern Horizons — Bivol, Beterbiev and Japan

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 300: Eastern Horizons — Bivol, Beterbiev and Japan

All eyes are pointed east, if you are a boxing fan.

First, light heavyweights Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol meet in Saudi Arabia to determine who is the baddest at 175 pounds. Then a few days later bantamweights and flyweights tangle in Japan.

Before the 21st century, who would have thought we could watch fights from the Middle East and Asia live.

Who would have thought Americans would care.

Streaming has changed the boxing landscape.

Beterbiev (20-0, 20 KOs), the IBF, WBC, WBO light heavyweight titlist meets WBA titlist Bivol (23-0, 12 KOs) for the undisputed world championship on Saturday Oct. 12, at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The entire card will air on DAZN pay-per-view. In the United States, the main event, expected to start at 3:15 pm PT,  will also be available on ESPN+.

A few decades ago, only Europeans and Asians would care about this fight card. And only the most avid American fight fan would even notice. Times have changed dramatically for the worldwide boxing scene.

In the 1970s and 80s, ABC’s Wide World of Sports would occasionally televise boxing from other countries. Muhammad Ali was featured on that show many times. Also, Danny “Lil Red” Lopez, Salvador Sanchez and Larry Holmes.

Howard Cosell was usually the host of that show and then denounced the sport as too brutal after 15 rounds of a one-sided match between Holmes and Randall Cobb at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas in 1982.

That same Cobb would later go into acting and appear in films with Chuck Norris and others.

Streaming apps have brought international boxing to the forefront.

Until this century heavyweights and light heavyweight champions were dominated by American prizefighters. Not anymore.

Beterbiev, a Russian-born fighter now living in Canada, is 39 years old and has yet to hear the final bell ring in any of his pro fights. He sends all his opponents away hearing little birdies. He is a bruiser.

“I want a good fight. I’m preparing for a good fight. We’ll see,” said Beterbiev.

Bivol, 33, is originally from Kyrgyzstan and now lives in the desert town of Indio, Calif. He has never tasted defeat but unlike his foe, he vanquishes his opponents with a more technical approach. He does have some pop.

“Artur (Beterbiev) is a great champion. He has what I want. He has the belts. And it’s not only about belts. When I look at his skills, I want to check my skills also against this amazing fighter,” said Bivol.

The Riyadh fight card also features several other world titlists including Jai Opetaia, Chris Eubank Jr and female star Skye Nicolson.

Japan

Two days later, bantamweight slugger Junto Nakatani leads a fight card that includes flyweight and super flyweight world titlists.

Nakatani (28-0, 21 KOs), a three-division world titlist, defends the WBC bantamweight title against Thailand’s Tasana Salapat (76-1, 53 KOs) on Monday Oct. 14, at Ariake Arena in Tokyo. ESPN+ will stream the Teiken Promotions card.

The left-handed assassin Nakatani has a misleading appearance that might lead one to think he’s more suited for a tailor than a scrambler of brain cells.

A few years back I ran into Nakatani at the Maywood Boxing club in the Los Angeles area. I thought he was a journalist, not the feared pugilist who knocked out Angel Acosta and Andrew Moloney on American shores.

Nakatani is worth watching at 1 a.m. on ESPN+.

Others on the card include WBO super flyweight titlist Kosei Tanaka (20-1, 11 KOs) defending against Phumelele Cafu (10-0-3); and WBO fly titlist Anthony Olascuaga (7-1, 5 KOs) defending against Jonathan “Bomba” Gonzalez (28-3-1, 14 KOs) the WBO light fly titlist who is moving up in weight.

It’s a loaded fight card.

RIP Max Garcia

The boxing world lost Max Garcia one of Northern California’s best trainers and a longtime friend of mine. He passed away this week.

Garcia and his son Sam Garcia often traveled down to Southern California with their fighters ready to show off their advanced boxing skills time after time.

It was either the late 90s or early 2000s that I met Max in Big Bear Lake at one of the many boxing gyms there at that time. We would run into each other at fight cards in California or Nevada. He was always one of the classiest guys in the boxing business.

If Max had a fighter on a boxing card you knew it was trouble for the other guy. All of his fighters were prepared and had that extra something. He was one of the trainers in NorCal who started churning out elite fighters out of Salinas, Gilroy and other nearby places.

Recently, I spotted Max and his son on a televised card with another one of his fighters. I mentioned to my wife to watch the Northern California fighter because he was with the Garcias. Sure enough, he battered the other fighter and won handily.

Max, you will be missed by all.

Fights to Watch

(all times Pacific Time)

Sat. DAZN pay-per-view, 9 a.m. Beterbiev-Bivol full card. Beterbiev (20-0) vs Dmitry Bivol (23-0) main event only also available on ESPN+ (3:15 pm approx.)

Mon. ESPN+ 1 a.m. Junto Nakatani (28-0) vs Tasana Salapat (76-1).

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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Junto Nakatani’s Road to a Mega-fight plus Notes on the Best Boxers from Thailand

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Junto Nakatani’s Road to a Mega-fight plus Notes on the Best Boxers from Thailand

WBC bantamweight champion Junto Nakatani, whose name now appears on several of the Top 10 pound-for-pound lists, returns to the ring on Monday. His title defense against Thailand’s Petch CP Freshmart is the grand finale of a two-day boxing festival at Tokyo’s Ariake Arena.

One of several Thai boxers sponsored by Fresh Mart, a national grocery chain, Petch, 30, was born Tasana Salapat or Thasana Saraphath, depending on the source, and is sometimes identified as Petch Sor Chitpattana (confusing, huh?). A pro since 2011, he brings a record of 76-1 with 53 TKOs.

In boxing, records are often misleading and that is especially true when referencing boxers from Thailand. And so, although Petch has record that jumps off the page, we really don’t know how good he is. Is he world class, or is he run-of-the-mill?

A closer look at his record reveals that only 20 of his wins came against opponents with winning records. Fifteen of his victims were making their pro debut. It is revealing that his lone defeat came in his lone fight outside Thailand. In December of 2018, he fought Takuma Inoue in Tokyo and lost a unanimous decision. Inoue, who was appearing in his thirteenth pro fight, won the 12-rounder by scores of 117-111 across the board.

A boxer doesn’t win 76 fights in a career in which he answers the bell for 407 rounds without being able to fight more than a little, but there’s a reason why the house fighter Nakatani (28-0, 21 KOs) is favored by odds as high as 50/1 in the bookmaking universe. Petch may force Junto to go the distance, but even that is a longshot.

Boxers from Thailand

Four fighters from Thailand, all of whom were active in the 1990s, are listed on the 42-name Hall of Fame ballot that arrived in the mail this week. They are Sot Chitalada, Ratanopol Sor Varapin, Veeraphol Sahaprom, and Pongsaklek Wonjongham. On a year when the great Manny Pacquiao is on the ballot, leaving one less slot for the remainder, the likelihood that any of the four will turn up on the dais in Canastota at the 2025 induction ceremony is slim.

By our reckoning, two active Thai fighters have a strong chance of making it someday. The first is Srisaket Sor Rungvisai who knocked Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez from his perch at the top of the pound-for-pound rankings in one of the biggest upsets in recent memory and then destroyed him in the rematch. The noted boxing historian Matt McGrain named Sor Rungvisai (aka Wisaksil Wangek) the top super flyweight of the decade 2010-2019.

The other is Knockout CP Freshmart (aka Thammanoon Niyomstrom). True, he’s getting a bit long in the tooth for a fighter in boxing’s smallest weight class (he’s 34), but the long-reigning strawweight champion, who has never fought a match scheduled for fewer than 10 rounds, has won all 25 of his pro fights and shows no signs of slowing down. He will be back in action next month opposing Puerto Rico-born Oscar Collazo in Riyadh.

The next Thai fighter to go into the IBHOF (and it may not happen in my lifetime) will bring the number to three. Khaosai Galaxy entered the Hall with the class of 1999 and Pone Kingpetch was inducted posthumously in 2023 in the Old Timer’s category.

Nakatani (pictured)

Hailing from the southeastern Japanese city of Inabe, Junto Nakatani is the real deal. In 2023, the five-foot-eight southpaw forged the TSS Knockout of the Year at the expense of Andrew Moloney. Late in the 12th round, he landed a short left hook to the chin and the poor Aussie was unconscious before he hit the mat. In his last outing, on July 20, he went downstairs to dismiss his opponent, taking out Vincent Astrolabio with a short left to the pit of the stomach. Astrolabio went down, writhing in pain, and was unable to continue. It was all over at the 2:37 mark of the opening round.

It’s easy to see where Nakatani is headed after he takes care of business on Monday.

Currently, Japanese boxers own all four meaningful pieces of the 118-pound puzzle. Of the four, the most recognizable name other than  Nakatani is that of Takuma Inoue who will be making the third defense of his WBA strap on Sunday, roughly 24 hours before Nakatani touches gloves with Petch in the very same ring. Inoue is a consensus 7/2 favorite over countryman Seiga Tsatsumi.

A unification fight between Nakatani and Takuma Inoue (20-1, 5 KOs) would be a natural. But this match, should it transpire, would be in the nature of an appetizer. A division above sits Takuma’s older brother Naoya Inoue who owns all four belts in the 122-pound weight class but, of greater relevance, is widely regarded the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

A match between Junto Nakatani and the baby-faced “Monster” would be a delicious pairing and the powers-that-be want it to happen.

In boxing, the best-laid plans often go awry, but there’s a good possibility that we will see Nakatani vs. Naoya Inoue in 2025. If so, that would be the grandest domestic showdown in Japanese boxing history.

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