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Prediction: Khan Will Dominate Peterson in Rematch
Prediction: Amir Khan will thoroughly dominate Lamont Peterson in their rematch on May 19.
If Amir Khan wants to take the next step into the ‘great’ or ‘elite’ territory of the welterweight ranks, he needs to win his rematch with Lamont Peterson in dominant fashion. And I think he will.
In short, Amir Khan is simply the superior fighter of the two. Peterson’s backstory is incredible and inspiring. As a prizefighter, he’s something short of great. His toughness and determination are his only discernable strengths as neither his speed nor his power are enough to win a fight against top competition.
Perhaps to a fault, Amir Khan is a crowd-pleasing fighter. His fights are never dull. He throws a good volume of punches and obliges any willing party in a slugfest. If you stand in front of Amir Khan, you’re likely to have a really tough night. At 25, he’s also entering the prime of his boxing years.
Khan and Peterson’s first fight, on Dec. 10, was thrilling, if not marred by refereeing controversy. I think the referee did a pretty poor job throughout the fight, and any fight that has fans and writers both mentioning the ref in the first breath of a fight recap means the ref played too large of a role in the outcome. The two points taken from Amir Khan for pushing definitely impacted the scoring, but they weren’t completely unwarranted. Amir Khan did push continually throughout the fight, and that’s not legal according to the rules. That said, it was a ticky-tacky interpretation of the rule and a one-point deduction was certainly enough. Furthermore, the pushing was largely a bi-product of Lamont Peterson consistently leading with his head. In what proved to be the strategic move that won him the fight, Lamont Peterson led with his head and backed Amir Khan up all night. In some sense, it was really effective aggression (very influential in ringside scoring). Effectiveness aside, it directly led to most of the pushing. Amir Khan operates best in space, and he needed to create separation between himself and Peterson, so his natural reaction was to push him away. Technically, it was illegal; but it was a bad call to take points away for the minor infraction. Still, it wasn’t the referee’s fault that Amir Khan walked away without his hand raised.
This gets to my main point: Amir Khan should have made adjustments to control the distance and pace of the fight, and I’m confident he will do just that in their rematch.
Tactical issues that Khan should—and better–have resolved for this fight (and if he has, it will be a dominant victory):
1) Learn how to hold. Granted this, too, is technically illegal, Bernard Hopkins made a living late in his career by picking his shots, and then holding. It’s not always fun to watch, but it’s wildly effective. Especially when Khan gets hurt, he needs to learn to grab a hold of his opponent so they stop hitting him. He hasn’t yet displayed this quality that veteran fighters adopt. Seeing Devon Alexander employ this strategy of landing hard, clean shots and then holding Marcos Maidana this past weekend was a perfect example to follow. While mildly underwhelming, it was an extremely decisive victory that put Alexander in line for a big fight in a lucrative division. Frankly, Alexander likely learned from watching Khan fail to contain Maidana in the later rounds in their Fight of the Year winning battle just a year ago.
** Side note: I think you’ll know all you need to know about Khan from his Maidana fight. He’s by far the superior fighter/boxer (and you get to see his strong body punching), but his willingness to engage and refusal to hold are paramount. Khan is fun to watch, offensively skilled, and extremely vulnerable to power punches. Oh, and he can bullied. Khan fights fire with fire, but if you’re willing to take a few punches coming in, you can back him into the ropes and force him into a brawl. Despite being neither granite-chinned nor very difficult, Khan has no problem mixing it up in the pocket.
2) Become a better inside fighter/force an inside fight. If he stands his ground in the center of the ring and forces a war of attrition/uppercuts, he would dismantle Lamont Peterson. His body punching, speed and accuracy would overwhelm Peterson.
3) Get off the ropes. In addition to rolling some punches, Amir needs to learn to just get out of a bad situation. He doesn’t exactly embody the term ring generalship, and frankly he does not look like he’s being trained by the best trainer in the world (more to come on this below). He needs to circle away, land shots, and take the center of the ring again. He essentially needs to do what Miguel Cotto did in his rematch with Antonio Margarito (easier to do against a fighter as shot/slow as Margarito than a hungry Lamont Peterson). With Khan’s pedigree, this should’ve been resolved years ago.
If he can make any one of those changes, he wins this fight easily. If he makes any 2+ of them, he’ll win by a near shutout/KO. Lamont Peterson simply cannot compete with Amir Khan on even terms. The only way Peterson remains competitive is if Khan allows him to dictate the pace and location of the fight. This leads me to my next point… these are issues solved in the gym.
If Amir Khan would have consistently spun off of the ropes (which he did intermittently) rather than push off, this rematch never would have happened and Khan would be off to a fight bearing more financial significance. This also would not have been that close of a fight. Amir Khan (same as in the Maidana fight where he nearly was stopped) cannot get off the ropes when he’s tired/hurt. He also does not know how to fight off the ropes. If you watch the classic Mayweather v. Jose Luis Castillo fight (the first one), you’ll see what it looks like to effectively fight off of the ropes. It’s something Floyd’s done his whole career. Now, to be fair, Floyd is a gifted HOF-bound fighter that has skills Amir Khan could only dream of. BUT, when he needed to, Floyd stuck his heels in the center of the ring and refused to be backed down by a far better fighter than Lamont Peterson. Khan either needs to learn how to fight on the ropes or control the pace/distance enough to not end up on them. This is where I question Freddie Roach. How is he not preparing his fighter with enough tools/tricks to stay off of the ropes when that one adjustment would clearly win him the fight?
From a personal standpoint, I think we’ll learn a lot about Freddie Roach in this fight. If he still has what it takes to be a premier trainer, this fight won’t be close. Roach seems to not give a ton of tactical advice to his fighters (which can be seen on “On Freddie Roach”) in between rounds. He doesn’t help them make adjustments anymore. I also think this was a major factor in the most recent Juan Manuel Marquez fight against Manny Pacquiao. Manny kept falling into the same traps throughout the fight, and Freddie was not telling him how to avoid them (lead uppercuts and/or a stronger conviction to a jab would have done the trick).
To be clear, I’m not questioning the merits of a deserving (and recently-elected) Hall of Famer in Freddie Roach. Surely, he turned a 122-lb Filipino fighter from a fireball that only had a 1-2 into one of the greatest offensive fighters of all time. But how much of that was the trainer and how much of that is due to the athlete? Well, I guess I am questioning the merits a little bit. All I’m saying is that he has the better horse in this Khan-Peterson rematch, and any one of a few tactical changes that he could implement in the gym should easily get his fighter a victory.
Amir Khan is yet to truly dominate a great opponent. Marco Antonio Barrera was well past his prime when they fought, and as much as I like Paulie Malignaggi, he epitomizes the term ‘gatekeeper’. If you can’t beat him convincingly, you’re not destined to be a world beater. Peterson isn’t that great opponent, but in order to get his chance at beating a top tier fighter and avoid being looped into that ‘good, but not great’ category, Khan needs to have one hell of a night in this rematch. Again, I think he will.
This fight has more significance to the state of boxing than one would think. This 140-154-lb weight classes have been among the most exciting/best divisions in boxing for the last decade. If Manny takes care of his business against Timothy Bradley (no guarantee, mind you) and Floyd turns Cotto into a gatekeeper, what’s left in these weight classes? The re-emerging Devon Alexander? Not exactly a must-buy PPV name.
If Amir Khan can make the slight aforementioned adjustments to his game, he will win and look good doing so. If he’s able to do that, he can position himself for countless big fights in this division. If not, let’s hope Canelo is as good as advertised (he’s not yet a world-class fighter), because he’ll be one of the few shining stars left in these ranks.
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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?
In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.
The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.
Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.
The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.
That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.
The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)
Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)
Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.
Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).
Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.
The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.
Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.
Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.
We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”
The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.
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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.
Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.
Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.
Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.
There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France, Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.
It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed, it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.
Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.
At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.
Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank
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Steven Navarro is the TSS 2024 Prospect of the Year
“I get ‘Bam’ vibes when I watch this kid,” said ESPN ringside commentator Tim Bradley during the opening round of Steven Navarro’s most recent match. Bradley was referencing WBC super flyweight champion Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez, a precociously brilliant technician whose name now appears on most pound-for-pound lists.
There are some common threads between Steven Navarro, the latest fighter to adopt the nickname “Kid Dynamite,” and Bam Rodriguez. Both are southpaws currently competing in the junior bantamweight division. But, of course, Bradley was alluding to something more when he made the comparison. And Navarro’s showing bore witness that Bradley was on to something.
It was the fifth pro fight for Navarro who was matched against a Puerto Rican with a 7-1 ledger. He ended the contest in the second frame, scoring three knockdowns, each the result of a different combination of punches, forcing the referee to stop it. It was the fourth win inside the distance for the 20-year-old phenom.
Isaias Estevan “Steven” Navarro turned pro after coming up short in last December’s U.S. Olympic Trials in Lafayette, Louisiana. The #1 seed in the 57 kg (featherweight) division, he was upset in the finals, losing a controversial split decision. Heading in, Navarro had won 13 national tournaments beginning at age 12.
A graduate of LA’s historic Fairfax High School, Steven made his pro debut this past April on a Matchroom Promotions card at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas and then inked a long-term deal with Top Rank. He comes from a boxing family. His father Refugio had 10 pro fights and three of Refugio’s cousins were boxers, most notably Jose Navarro who represented the USA at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and was a four-time world title challenger as a super flyweight. Jose was managed by Oscar De La Hoya for much of his pro career.
Nowadays, the line between a prospect and a rising contender has been blurred. Three years ago, in an effort to make matters less muddled, we operationally defined a prospect thusly: “A boxer with no more than a dozen fights, none yet of the 10-round variety.” To our way of thinking, a prospect by nature is still in the preliminary-bout phase of his career.
We may loosen these parameters in the future. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of talented female boxers who, like their Japanese male counterparts in the smallest weight classes, are often pushed into title fights when, from a historical perspective, they are just getting started.
But for the time being, we will adhere to our operational definition. And within the window that we have created, Steven Navarro stood out. In his first year as a pro, “Kid Dynamite” left us yearning to see more of him.
Honorable mention: Australian heavyweight Teremoana Junior (5-0, 5 KOs)
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