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Wylie: Juan Manuel Marquez Would KO Brandon Rios

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Rios Abril 120414 002aWhat's there not to like about Juan Manuel Marquez?

Heading into last Saturday night's HBO double header, the Mexican great Marquez – despite being a 38 year old blown up lightweight – was considered to be one of the absolute best fighters boxing has on offer. Nothing has changed. While his opponent, Sergiy Fedchenko, was considered a good fighter with good skills, he was not considered to be of any real threat to a genuinely great fighter. This proved to be the case as Marquez – competing at 140 pounds – secured a wide, unanimous decision by using his vast array of skills to dominate his younger challenger. Marquez is now the interim WBO junior welterweight champion. Because Juan Manuel is held in such high regard, many were disappointed that he did not close the show and finish the fight within the distance. Despite the bout not being thrilling, Marquez still did what he was supposed to do – he kept himself in the winners bracket, and looked good doing it.

The same however, cannot be said of Brandon Rios, who not only failed to make the lightweight limit before his contest with Cuban-born Richard Abril, but also failed in showing anything in the ring that backed up many experts claims that he was one of boxing's best prospects. In all honesty, I believe Brandon Rios failed to win the fight. There have been mixed reviews of Rios' performance – which is reflected across the three scorecards handed in by the judges. Adelaide Bird had it 117-111 for Abril, while judges Glen Trowbridge and Jerry Roth both scored the fight for Rios – 115-113 and 116-112 respectively. How on earth three “experts ” can share such contrasting opinions is almost beyond belief. Remember, judges are thought of as being better than you and I at analysing fights. It's times like this when something objective needs to be introduced into round scoring, as opposed to leaving round scoring to be the subject of opinion. But that's a debate for another time].

It won't be too long before we start hearing that Rios' lackluster performance was a result of him being dehydrated, or that the official should have deducted points from Abril for holding. Nonsense. The weight didn't beat Rios, nor did the referee. Rios was simply beaten by a better practitioner of the sweet science.

It was evident from the start that this was going to be a bad night for Brandon Rios; he had an opponent that was not going to just stand right in front of him. Abril used his superior height, reach and better footwork to control the pace and distance throughout the fight. Rios had no answer for Abril's jab or good defense in close. The reason Abril was not deducted points for holding was because Abril wasn't holding. Take a look at the fight again, Abril neutralized Rios' left hook in close by giving him nothing to hit apart from his left shoulder – standing side-on with his right elbow protecting his torso and his right hand protecting his chin, a Floyd Mayweather dynamic. There were occasions when the crowd seemed to be yelling for the official to pull them apart. Again, take a look at the fight. On those occasions, Rios still has one arm free which means there is no need for Vic Drakulich to get involved in the action – the ability to tie up is an important part of boxing. Besides, there was no more holding in this fight than there was in the second and third Ali-Frazier bouts. I've never heard anyone ever complain about Ali's tactics and excessive holding in that fight, have you?

Richard Abril was not only better from the outside, but he was better than Rios on the inside too.

In the end, the fight was somewhat reminiscent of Gene Tunney's winning effort over Jack Dempsey in 1927 – the swarmer kept at a distance and then neutralised in close. But make no mistake, Richard Abril is no Gene Tunney, and Brandon Rios is no Jack Dempsey – this bout was not so much about Richard Abril's skills, but about Brandon Rios' lack of. And this is why I have no interest in seeing a fight between Brandon Rios and Juan Manuel Marquez. Don't get me wrong, Richard Abril is a clever fighter, who managed to frustrate Rios. Marquez on the other hand, is a great fighter, who would likely knock Brandon Rios out.

Let's think about styles for a moment, and in particular how Juan Manuel Marquez operates. A lot has been discussed with regards to Manny Pacquiao's stylistic transformation. While it is impressive, he is still in essence, the same offensive fighter – just a more refined version. Marquez on the other hand, has gone full circle – once a cautious defensive minded fighter who relied almost exclusively on his counterpunching ability, Marquez is now possibly the best offensive fighter in the sport as a result of his near-perfect combinations and boxing acumen. Watching Marquez in full flow – placing his punches around an opponent’s guard with precision and accuracy is one of THE best sights in boxing. I'm of the belief that he, along with Joe Louis and Julio Cesar Chavez, is the greatest combination puncher in boxing history. Sure, others have been faster like Meldrick Taylor and Hector Camacho, but none come close to matching those three in terms of the effectiveness and variation of punches. Marquez mixes them up – hooks, uppercuts and straights to the body and head just about better than anyone. Marquez' style would be a recipe for disaster for Brandon Rios.

Brandon Rios can only fight one way – straight ahead without applying head movement or utilising a jab. Against Richard Abril, who mainly threw single shots as a way to maintain distance, Rios was able to avoid heavy fire. This would not be the case against Marquez. Take a look at Marquez' most destructive nights where he has inflicted the most punishment on his opponents – Terdsak Jandaeng, Juan Diaz and Michael Katsidis. They were all fighters who applied relentless pressure on Marquez by attempting to walk him down. Fighters who come in looking to get Marquez into a brawl all suffer the same fate – they get knocked out. Marquez has never been stopped in 61 fights, because of his superb combination of offense and defense. The fighters who have success against Marquez are fighters who can make Marquez take the lead. Take a look at Floyd Mayweather. Apart from being much bigger and faster, Mayweather never really pressed the attack until late in the fight, he allowed Marquez to press the attack. Even this past weekend against Fedchenko, Marquez was not at his absolute best as a result of his opponent not getting into a firefight with him. Marquez gets the better of most exchanges [even against Pacquiao] because of the correctness of his technique when punching. When other fighters become ragged during exchanges, Marquez stays neat and precise – his 65% knockout ratio, which is higher than Manny Pacquiao's, is a testament to his punch accuracy.

I could see Rios probably touching Marquez more than he did Abril, because Marquez would be putting more emphasis into his offense, but ultimately, this would be his downfall. I believe during the exchanges, Marquez' straighter punches would override Rios' wider punches. Even at 38 years-old, Marquez would be the more dangerous fighter in the fight. Every punch is placed with maximum effect from Marquez.

Marquez would be too methodical and clinical for a crude, one dimensional fighter like Rios. Rios' inability to cut off the ring effectively, and move his head on the way in would cost him dearly in a fight with Marquez. This type of plodding pressure fighter plays directly into Marquez' counterpunching hands.

Consequently, at least there would not be any controversial decisions in the end between Rios and Marquez. The judges would be made irrelevant long before the final bell.

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

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In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.

The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.

Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.

The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.

That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.

The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)

Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)

Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.

Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).

Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.

The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.

Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.

Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.

We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”

The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.

Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.

Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.

Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.

There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France,  Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.

It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed,  it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.

Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.

At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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Steven Navarro is the TSS 2024 Prospect of the Year

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“I get ‘Bam’ vibes when I watch this kid,” said ESPN ringside commentator Tim Bradley during the opening round of Steven Navarro’s most recent match. Bradley was referencing WBC super flyweight champion Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez, a precociously brilliant technician whose name now appears on most pound-for-pound lists.

There are some common threads between Steven Navarro, the latest fighter to adopt the nickname “Kid Dynamite,” and Bam Rodriguez. Both are southpaws currently competing in the junior bantamweight division. But, of course, Bradley was alluding to something more when he made the comparison. And Navarro’s showing bore witness that Bradley was on to something.

It was the fifth pro fight for Navarro who was matched against a Puerto Rican with a 7-1 ledger. He ended the contest in the second frame, scoring three knockdowns, each the result of a different combination of punches, forcing the referee to stop it. It was the fourth win inside the distance for the 20-year-old phenom.

Isaias Estevan “Steven” Navarro turned pro after coming up short in last December’s U.S. Olympic Trials in Lafayette, Louisiana. The #1 seed in the 57 kg (featherweight) division, he was upset in the finals, losing a controversial split decision. Heading in, Navarro had won 13 national tournaments beginning at age 12.

A graduate of LA’s historic Fairfax High School, Steven made his pro debut this past April on a Matchroom Promotions card at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas and then inked a long-term deal with Top Rank. He comes from a boxing family. His father Refugio had 10 pro fights and three of Refugio’s cousins were boxers, most notably Jose Navarro who represented the USA at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and was a four-time world title challenger as a super flyweight. Jose was managed by Oscar De La Hoya for much of his pro career.

Nowadays, the line between a prospect and a rising contender has been blurred. Three years ago, in an effort to make matters less muddled, we operationally defined a prospect thusly: “A boxer with no more than a dozen fights, none yet of the 10-round variety.” To our way of thinking, a prospect by nature is still in the preliminary-bout phase of his career.

We may loosen these parameters in the future. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of talented female boxers who, like their Japanese male counterparts in the smallest weight classes, are often pushed into title fights when, from a historical perspective, they are just getting started.

But for the time being, we will adhere to our operational definition. And within the window that we have created, Steven Navarro stood out. In his first year as a pro, “Kid Dynamite” left us yearning to see more of him.

Honorable mention: Australian heavyweight Teremoana Junior (5-0, 5 KOs)

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