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Pacquiao-Cotto II? Rerun Not Rematch

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pacquiao-vs-cotto-02If the rumors circulating via the Internet and other boxing publications are accurate, it looks as if Manny Pacquiao 54-4-2 (38) and Miguel Cotto 37-3 (30) are going to meet for a second time later this year, probably in November. If the fight happens then, it'll be almost three years to the day that Pacquiao stopped Cotto in the 12th round of their first fight. As you'll recall that bout was fought for the WBO welterweight title with a 145 pound catch-weight stipulation. In that bout a perhaps slightly drained Cotto couldn't handle Pacquiao's speed, unorthodox attack and imaginative offense. If that weren't enough, when Cotto did catch Manny with some of his thudding hooks to the head and body, nothing happened and Pacquiao seemed to feed off of it and grew more confident.

Since then Pacquiao hasn't looked as good as he did that night and Cotto has moved up to junior middleweight and has fought well along with winning a piece of the title at 154. In his last fight he gave Floyd Mayweather the most competitive fight he's had in 10 years since he fought Jose Luis Castillo the first time (a fight I scored 115-113 Castillo).

If in fact Cotto does get a second shot at Pacquiao, that's great and certainly well deserved on behalf of Cotto. If there are two fighters that no one should begrudge constantly getting big fights and paydays, it's both Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto. Shane and Miguel have faced every fighter who was perceived as a threat to them including facing each other (Cotto won by decision) in a fight that could've been scored for either. Yes, both Mosley and Cotto are real fighters that never took the easy way out and boxing would be on top again if it were littered with fighters like them as it once was.

Miguel deserves the payday and the chance to even the score with Pacquiao the way he did against the first fighter to beat him as a pro, Antonio Margarito. If Pacquiao is going to fight Cotto again, because in reality he has no other real opponent to face, he better not play the catch-weight game this time. Remember, he and Freddie Roach don't wanna see Juan Manuel Marquez again and Timothy Bradley would be more confident in a rematch. So you can see why they'll try to fight Cotto, simply because they know Manny holds the psychological and stylistic advantage.

Some will look to make the case where Cotto has a better chance this time, but he doesn't, actually his odds have diminished. If there's anything Pacquiao could use right now is a fight in which he not only has supreme confidence, but he knows he can plant the seed of doubt into his opponents mind. Something that would be off the table against Marquez or Bradley.

Against Cotto, Pacquiao will look re-energized and confident and much better than he did in his last two bouts versus Marquez and Bradley. He knows at some point Miguel will fight to survive and avoid exchanges while trying to tip toe his way to a decision victory. There's no way he'll attempt to raise hell with Pacquiao like he did during the first few rounds of their last meeting and Pacquiao knows it. That said, I'm not saying Cotto is fearful, just realistic and now knows how dangerous Manny is for him.

If there's one thing fighters would love to know going into a fight is this — that their opponent doesn't really want to fight it out with them and will look to be nice and steal rounds with the hope of eeking out the decision. As much as Cotto is the ultimate warrior, I think after he's confronted Pacquiao again and is reminded of what happened the first time, this will apply. Although I'd love to be proven wrong.

Knowing Cotto will bring that mindset to the ring, Pacquiao will be Shark like with blood in the water and he'll fight as the predator from round one on. That's huge, because Cotto can't be effective at all moving away from Pacquiao, especially with Pacquiao being at his best pressing the action against a fighter who is squared up and right there. On top of that – Pacquiao can move in a lot faster going forward than Miguel can move away or step off going back. So basically, Cotto is in a catch 22. He can't take it to Manny and try to work him over without getting hurt and busted up himself, and if he constantly moves away and tries to fight in flurries like he did against Margarito during their rematch, he'll be second in almost every exchange and has no shot at winning a decision. Manny's short little straight shots will get to the target before Miguel can bring his hook home, regardless of whether it's directed to Pacquiao's head or body.

If there is a Pacquiao-Cotto rematch, Manny holds every single advantage in the book. He will enter the ring with all the confidence in the world and wholeheartedly believes he can take Cotto's confidence without much resistance. In addition to that, Manny will want to beat Cotto more impressively again than Mayweather did earlier this year. But keep this in mind, in his fight with Cotto, Mayweather made a conscious decision to beat him on the inside, in effect to beat him at his own game. And he made that decision during the fight, which gives you a signal about how versatile the guy is. If he'd wanted to, he could have won by a wider margin by fighting his usual style, but, for me anyway, that would have been less impressive. I think he understood that he could give people a fan-friendly fight without incurring much genuine risk. So even if Pacquiao is more impressive against Cotto this time, it doesn't translate into him holding the advantage over Mayweather.

Manny is a great offensive fighter. He'll always look more impressive against fighters that aren't hard to find or cannot offer much resistance. In this case, Cotto is a little of both. Pacquiao will always look better against Cotto compared to Mayweather, but Floyd will always handle Marquez, something Pacquiao really hasn't done once in three fights.

Pacquiao-Cotto II will be a re-run, not a rematch. And as much as Pacquiao holds the advantage stylistically, the psychological advantage is even a bigger determent and factor going against Cotto. Something like the advantage Aaron Pryor brought to the rematch with Alexis Arguello. And like Arguello, when all is lost, Cotto will go out the same way Alexis did, trying with everything he has, but in the end accepting that he did his best, but the other guy had his number and he just couldn't beat him.

Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

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In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.

The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.

Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.

The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.

That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.

The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)

Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)

Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.

Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).

Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.

The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.

Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.

Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.

We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”

The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.

Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.

Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.

Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.

There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France,  Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.

It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed,  it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.

Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.

At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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Steven Navarro is the TSS 2024 Prospect of the Year

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“I get ‘Bam’ vibes when I watch this kid,” said ESPN ringside commentator Tim Bradley during the opening round of Steven Navarro’s most recent match. Bradley was referencing WBC super flyweight champion Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez, a precociously brilliant technician whose name now appears on most pound-for-pound lists.

There are some common threads between Steven Navarro, the latest fighter to adopt the nickname “Kid Dynamite,” and Bam Rodriguez. Both are southpaws currently competing in the junior bantamweight division. But, of course, Bradley was alluding to something more when he made the comparison. And Navarro’s showing bore witness that Bradley was on to something.

It was the fifth pro fight for Navarro who was matched against a Puerto Rican with a 7-1 ledger. He ended the contest in the second frame, scoring three knockdowns, each the result of a different combination of punches, forcing the referee to stop it. It was the fourth win inside the distance for the 20-year-old phenom.

Isaias Estevan “Steven” Navarro turned pro after coming up short in last December’s U.S. Olympic Trials in Lafayette, Louisiana. The #1 seed in the 57 kg (featherweight) division, he was upset in the finals, losing a controversial split decision. Heading in, Navarro had won 13 national tournaments beginning at age 12.

A graduate of LA’s historic Fairfax High School, Steven made his pro debut this past April on a Matchroom Promotions card at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas and then inked a long-term deal with Top Rank. He comes from a boxing family. His father Refugio had 10 pro fights and three of Refugio’s cousins were boxers, most notably Jose Navarro who represented the USA at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and was a four-time world title challenger as a super flyweight. Jose was managed by Oscar De La Hoya for much of his pro career.

Nowadays, the line between a prospect and a rising contender has been blurred. Three years ago, in an effort to make matters less muddled, we operationally defined a prospect thusly: “A boxer with no more than a dozen fights, none yet of the 10-round variety.” To our way of thinking, a prospect by nature is still in the preliminary-bout phase of his career.

We may loosen these parameters in the future. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of talented female boxers who, like their Japanese male counterparts in the smallest weight classes, are often pushed into title fights when, from a historical perspective, they are just getting started.

But for the time being, we will adhere to our operational definition. And within the window that we have created, Steven Navarro stood out. In his first year as a pro, “Kid Dynamite” left us yearning to see more of him.

Honorable mention: Australian heavyweight Teremoana Junior (5-0, 5 KOs)

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