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THE FLURRY: I Like Golovkin A Lot, but I Love Martinez
First things first, let’s talk about Gennady Golovkin (who I will now refer to as GGG strictly because I want to):
• GGG has serious, easy power. P4P he reminds me of Miguel Cotto coming up the ranks. Even if it looked like he wasn’t landing much, he was visibly hurting his opponent with every power shot. Not only was Proksa wincing at shots, but his face was disfigured after just four rounds of boxing. His power is some of the best we’ve seen at this weight class in a while
• GGG is the real deal, but only in the sense that he’s a consensus top-5 Middleweight in the world. To put him on the pedestal some pundits have done based on his spectacular performance last Saturday is aggressive to say the least
• GGG’s polish for a power puncher of his magnitude was by far the most impressive thing I saw in his fight. We’ve seen massive punchers before, but rarely do we one who’s undisputable bombs are thrown with such precision and little exertion. The devastating body shots that effectively ended this fight were neither haymakers nor wild shots. They were just perfectly thrown hooks to the body. His head attack was equally impressive as he landed crushing blows with relatively short, simple combinations. What GGG did with his wide stance was truly great, and definitely done with enough technical/tactical skill to get me intrigued
• What’s next for GGG? Honestly, I can’t see how he doesn’t get the winner of Martinez-Junior. HBO has to be in love with this kid. I haven’t heard this much buzz about a fighter making his HBO debut in quite some time. They have to have a say, right? Al Haymon can’t make all of the decisions for the whole sport. Wait….right?
• And who else is there? Geale is a great fighter, but nobody in America (outside of the real boxing enthusiasts) knows who he is. How do you sell us another Martinez-Macklin-type fight (Spoiler Alert: I’m assuming Martinez wins)? Geale and GGG should probably square off for the right to the winner, but this is boxing, so I wouldn’t count on the logical matchup to take place
• While I don’t thing GGG is going to takeover the sport as some have suggested, I do think he’s a championship-caliber fighter who will hold at least one major belt between 154-168 lbs. in his career and make numerous defenses of that belt. If he were to face Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. (who I will now refer to simply as ‘Junior’ out of laziness), I’m convinced we’d be looking at a Fight of the Year candidate that GGG would win via late stoppage. But since I think we’ll see Golovkin-Martinez first, I think GGG gives Martinez all he can handle for 8 rounds. However, championship fights are 12 rounds, and I think Martinez’s adaptive style, stamina, experience, and ability to finish fights will have him take over the late rounds and win a close decision (unless he stops GGG). To be clear, I think GGG has the skills to beat Martinez. I just don’t think he’d do it on his first try.
Perfect segue: Martinez-Chavez, Jr. thoughts
Before I get into my breakdown and prediction on how this fight ends, in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit I’m a Sergio Martinez fan. I feel I have to get that out in the open as I’m inherently going to be biased in his favor. And I don’t feel bad about that because how could you not like the guy? He’s exciting in the ring, eloquent outside of it, and he is a very good role model. That said, I pick fights on facts, and Sergio Martinez is simply a better boxer.
• Make no mistake. Junior is a hell of a fighter. He’s a tough, granite-chinned, powerful middleweight. He is deserving of this shot based on his last few wins and lack of viable contenders at 160 lbs. His cockiness works to his advantage as walks through his opponents’ offense to deliver his own heavy shots. Junior works the body incredibly well, and that’s really helped him develop into the well-rounded power puncher he is today
• Sergio Martinez is an elite, world-class champion at the top of his game. Martinez has good hand speed and great footwork due to his raw athleticism. He’s awkward to prepare for with his constant, unique movement, and he can finish fights with one punch. He simply has too many offensive tools and defensive smarts to be beaten by Junior
• Martinez has beaten fighters that Junior’s handlers would never let him step in the ring with. Martinez’s experience will be a major factor in this fight. He has had his nose broken early in a fight. He has been rocked by very large, heavy punchers like Kelly Pavlik. In both of those Middleweight title bouts, Martinez had his arm raised at the bell. We’ve seen what happens when Martinez gets hit with a great shot by a big puncher, but the unknown element of what happens if Junior gets hurt is yet another advantage for Martinez
• While we don’t usually see this out of Martinez, he has employed some mind games to give himself yet another advantage. Sergio seems to really have gotten under the skin of Junior, and I think it will make a difference in the fight. Junior is going to be trying so hard not just to win this fight, but to knock Martinez out and prove a point. Junior hears the critics and wants so badly to make a name for himself. In doing so, I’m confident he’ll leave himself open and vulnerable to expertly-timed counter shots by Martinez. Again, Martinez is an elite fighter, and not one to miss openings. It’s like missing your spot as a pitcher against a superstar hitter… they will make you pay every time, and that’s why they’re superstars
• While the loss to Antonio Margarito on Sergio Martinez’s record should not be ignored since he employed a similar swarming, stalking offensive assault to Junior, I believe Martinez can win an inside fight or a slugfest with Junior. Just because Junior walked through Andy Lee does not mean he can walk through Sergio Martinez.
• The last factor in this fight that is worth noting for me is Junior’s corner. I think Freddie Roach is an incredible teacher of offensive boxing. Look at his stable of fighters: Manny Pacquaio, Amir Khan, Junior… all dynamic offensive fighters. However, I don’t think Roach has given any of them much tactical advice during their fights in the last few years. Sergio Martinez is nearly impossible to prepare for as I mentioned (largely because you can’t find many left-handed sparring partners that can emulate his natural flow), so it’s imperative to adjust on the fly against him. Part of the reason he comes on so strong at the end of fights is because he’s constantly figuring out how to get around his opponent’s defense. If you can’t adjust, he will pick you apart late in a fight. This is exactly what will happen against Chavez. TKO11 for Martinez as Julio Cesar Chavez, Sr. throws in the towel.
• With Martinez listed at just -185 in sporting books, I’d say this is a good chance to make some money if you’re the betting type
And lastly, I wanted to share my prediction for Andre Ward-Chad Dawson. Before I get into my prediction, I want to note how astonished I was at the betting line for this fight. I’ve seen Andre Ward as high as -350 (MORE THAN 3-TO-1 favorite). To me, that’s crazy. This is the most even title fight on paper I’ve seen since Jermain Taylor-Winky Wright which ended in a true draw. I think Ward takes this one, but at 3-1, Dawson is surely a live underdog–certainly less of an underdog than JCC Junior as mentioned above
• Andre Ward will win this because, to Lee Wylie’s point (http://www.tss.ib.tv/news/articles/15194-the-breakdown-andre-ward-chad-dawson), he has more ways to win. There is a reason Andre Ward is undefeated: Nobody has figured out how to beat him in the ring.
• Conversely, Chad Dawson has been beaten. He was beaten largely due to complacency. He let Jean Pascal beat him. He has let other fighters stay in fights with him just because he has at times lacked the urgency to finish fights. Dawson is so naturally gifted with boxing talent that he can almost always win on that alone. Against a guy like Ward, he’ll need to open up his guard a bit and have his best night. He is more than capable of winning this fight, but I don’t think he has the mental fortitude to do so
• Regardless of the outcome, this fight is so good for the sport. I hope it’s not a snoozefest (and for the record, I do not think it will be) as their immense talents neutralize one another, but it doesn’t matter. The winner will universally be recognized as a superstar in boxing, which is exactly where the winner belongs. If only more top fighters were willing to fight the best guys out there like these two…Props to Dawson for suggesting this fight and meeting Ward in Ward’s weight class and hometown. Props to Ward for taking the fight against a bigger man who is undoubtedly the best fight/toughest challenge for him out there right now.
• Ward will win a close, but clear decision over 12 grueling rounds. Get out a notebook for this one, these guys will be putting on a clinic on The Sweet Science…
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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?
In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.
The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.
Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.
The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.
That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.
The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)
Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)
Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.
Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).
Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.
The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.
Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.
Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.
We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”
The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.
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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.
Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.
Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.
Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.
There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France, Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.
It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed, it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.
Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.
At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.
Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank
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Steven Navarro is the TSS 2024 Prospect of the Year
“I get ‘Bam’ vibes when I watch this kid,” said ESPN ringside commentator Tim Bradley during the opening round of Steven Navarro’s most recent match. Bradley was referencing WBC super flyweight champion Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez, a precociously brilliant technician whose name now appears on most pound-for-pound lists.
There are some common threads between Steven Navarro, the latest fighter to adopt the nickname “Kid Dynamite,” and Bam Rodriguez. Both are southpaws currently competing in the junior bantamweight division. But, of course, Bradley was alluding to something more when he made the comparison. And Navarro’s showing bore witness that Bradley was on to something.
It was the fifth pro fight for Navarro who was matched against a Puerto Rican with a 7-1 ledger. He ended the contest in the second frame, scoring three knockdowns, each the result of a different combination of punches, forcing the referee to stop it. It was the fourth win inside the distance for the 20-year-old phenom.
Isaias Estevan “Steven” Navarro turned pro after coming up short in last December’s U.S. Olympic Trials in Lafayette, Louisiana. The #1 seed in the 57 kg (featherweight) division, he was upset in the finals, losing a controversial split decision. Heading in, Navarro had won 13 national tournaments beginning at age 12.
A graduate of LA’s historic Fairfax High School, Steven made his pro debut this past April on a Matchroom Promotions card at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas and then inked a long-term deal with Top Rank. He comes from a boxing family. His father Refugio had 10 pro fights and three of Refugio’s cousins were boxers, most notably Jose Navarro who represented the USA at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and was a four-time world title challenger as a super flyweight. Jose was managed by Oscar De La Hoya for much of his pro career.
Nowadays, the line between a prospect and a rising contender has been blurred. Three years ago, in an effort to make matters less muddled, we operationally defined a prospect thusly: “A boxer with no more than a dozen fights, none yet of the 10-round variety.” To our way of thinking, a prospect by nature is still in the preliminary-bout phase of his career.
We may loosen these parameters in the future. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of talented female boxers who, like their Japanese male counterparts in the smallest weight classes, are often pushed into title fights when, from a historical perspective, they are just getting started.
But for the time being, we will adhere to our operational definition. And within the window that we have created, Steven Navarro stood out. In his first year as a pro, “Kid Dynamite” left us yearning to see more of him.
Honorable mention: Australian heavyweight Teremoana Junior (5-0, 5 KOs)
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