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48-1? Predicting Who Will Defeat Floyd Mayweather

Floyd Mayweather is expected to face either Marcos Maidana or Amir Khan on May 3rd at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Of the two proposed options, Maidana makes the most sense to me, something I’ve already opined about enough. In short, I think Maidana earned the bout with his shocking upset of Adrien Broner last December, and I would rather see Mayweather face someone who comes at him and throws punches from all angles.
But truth be told, neither Maidana nor Khan really stand much of a chance against Mayweather. Though brave, Maidanda would be too easy to hit, and for all his speed Khan wouldn’t be able to sustain anything noteworthy over 12 full rounds against Mayweather. Each man would have his moments against the aging great, but only in spurts. Mayweather would likely defeat both by decision rather widely.
But just because the two men Mayweather wants to fight next don’t have much of a chance to beat him, doesn’t mean there aren’t opponents out there who do. After all, Mayweather isn’t exactly known for seeking out his best opposition.
Therein lies the problem for predicting who will defeat him, or at least who would stand the best chance at it.
In reality, Mayweather has many more options than the two proposed for May 3, Maidana and Khan. In fact, I think we should evaluate where those two opponents land in the overall scheme of who Mayweather, the best in the sport, should actually be considering for his next bout. While Top Rank and Golden Boy don’t work together, Mayweather is the one fighter in the sport who could cross that line and work with both if he only wanted to. As he likes to often point out, he calls the shots.
So for me, before I get to either Maidana or Khan on the list of who Mayweather should fight next, I have to first cross off Erislandy Lara, Manny Pacquiao, Timothy Bradley and Danny Garcia, who in my opinion easily outrank Maidana and Khan as potential opponents. Moreover, I believe welterweight Shawn Porter and junior middleweights Alfredo Angulo (who would’ve ditched Canelo in a heartbeat for a fight with Mayweather), James Kirkland and Demetrius Andrade grade out evenly or even slightly above Maidana and Khan as opponents.
There are two groups of candidates. The first are opponents Mayweather would likely never fight for one reason or another. Let’s call these guys Category A. These aren’t “wishful thinking” fights that border on asking him to do too much, so no Gennady Golovkin or Andre Ward on the list. Rather these are legitimate tests one should expect an undefeated fighter in the twilight of his career to undertake, especially someone espousing himself as the best ever.
First and foremost in Category A is Manny Pacquiao (of course). For all the reasons your favorite Money Team friend gives you for why Mayweather has not and/or never will never fight Pacquiao, the truth of the matter is simply that Mayweather sees Pacquiao as too great a risk. Pacquiao has a rare combination of speed and power that can give any fighter fits on any given fight night, even the mighty Mayweather. This one has been beaten to death, though, so let’s move on.
A relatively new entry into Category A is No. 1 ranked junior middleweight Erislandy Lara. Mayweather holds an alphabet title at 154 and is also the lineal TBRB champion. But Lara’s larger natural frame, southpaw stance and Cuban boxing style would be a tough puzzle for Mayweather to solve. There’s little chance he’d be able to outbox the longer Lara from a distance, and walking towards a laser-punching stalwart like Lara down is bad news for anyone (ask granite-chinned Alfredo Angulo). Mayweather will avoid Lara like the plague.
Undefeated welterweight Timothy Bradley is great at nothing but good at everything. It makes him a tough out for anyone at welterweight, and his ability to adapt to different styles has helped vault him up numerous pound-for-pounds lists. But like Pacquiao, Bradley has a double whammy going against him. First and foremost, he’s good enough to beat Floyd. Second, he’s promoted by Bob Arum.
Category B consists of people Mayweather is more likely to face before he retires. That means the risk they pose to him is less than those in Category A and Top Rank does not manage them. Moreover, and despite Mayweather’s titles at both 154 and 147, it means these men campaign at welterweight and below. Also note that any junior welterweight would likely have to come up to 147 to face Mayweather. He takes all the advantages he can get.
Before moving onto discussing the two men I feel who have the best actual chance of handing Mayweather a loss (meaning they both have the ability and might actually get to fight him), I first want to propose a dark horse candidate. Shawn Porter is undefeated and holds the IBF welterweight title. These two things would make him an attraction for Mayweather, who likes to hand fighters their first losses and collects alphabet straps to help bolster his claim at greatness. But Porter seems to really have come into his own against Devon Alexander last December. He didn’t just use his natural advantage of physical strength in the bout. Rather he showed real boxing skill and strategy against a solid fighter. His natural ability and improving skill set make him someone to watch going forward, and I could see him posing problems for Mayweather.
That being said, if Mayweather is to lose before retiring, the man to do it will either be junior welterweight champion Danny Garcia or undefeated welterweight Keith Thurman, and here’s why. Garcia would appear at first glance to be out of his league against Mayweather. But Garcia is the unassuming type who almost always appears to be out of his league. He was an underdog against both Amir Khan and Lucas Matthysse, and he dominated both with relative ease. Moreover, Garcia swings for the fences enough to keep Mayweather cautious and careful, and his power has grown enough over his last few fights to make one believe he could hurt Mayweather if he lands clean. Garcia might be able to get Mayweather to lead with a long right hand that Garcia could counter with one of his hard hooks. A hurt Mayweather would not take risks, and Garcia could eke out a narrow decision.
Thurman, on the other hand, might be Mayweather’s worst nightmare. He’s tall, lanky and powerful and he has shown real skill and strategy as he’s moved up the ranks. Thurman is the type of puncher who can put anyone to sleep with either hand. But he’s smart enough to not rely solely on power. This makes him dangerous the way Thomas Hearns was back in the 1980s. Don’t get me wrong: Thurman still has much to prove. He has some nice wins on his resume, most notably Jesus Soto Karass, but he hasn’t yet faced staunch enough competition to warrant a Mayweather bout. But Thurman’s talent should keep him winning, and his connection to Al Haymon should help him land the megafight when the time is right. And when he does, don’t be surprised if he pulls out the win. In fact, I’m predicting he’s the one that eventually keeps Mayweather from reaching 49-0.
Other News and Notes
-Middleweight Andy Lee is seeking a fight against Gennady Golovkin. That would make Lee one of the few Top 10 middleweights who actually want to fight GGG, something I think should be commended.
-It appears more and more likely junior middleweights Erislandy Lara and Ishe Smith will meet on the undercard of Mayweather’s May 3 card. While it won’t be visually appealing, it should help the winner grab a bout against another top name.
-Super middleweight Bryan Vera will rematch Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on March 1. Many thought Vera deserved the nod in the first fight, but Vera told me he’s going for the knockout this time around. Don’t be surprised to see him sit down on his punches more and make it a slugfest.
-In reality, I believe Mayweather should be pushing the envelope his last few fights and going after guys like Sergio Martinez at middleweight. But I can’t see Mayweather ever moving up to test himself like that. Can you imagine if Mayweather had fought during the time of Hagler, Hearns, Leonard and Duran? Would he have faced any of them?
-I’ve been denied entry into the Boxing Writers Association of America a couple of times, but sentiments like this from Bart Barry make it all worthwhile. I certainly would’ve liked to have been considered a boxing writer by the BWAA membership committee when I applied, but since everyone else seems to consider me one, I suppose that’s good enough.
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History has Shortchanged Freddie Dawson, One of the Best Boxers of his Era

History has Shortchanged Freddie Dawson, One of the Best Boxers of his Era
This reporter was rummaging around the internet last week when he stumbled on a story in the May 1950 issue of Ebony under the byline of Mike Jacobs. Boxing was then in the doldrums (isn’t it always?) and Jacobs, the most powerful promoter in boxing during the era of Joe Louis, was lassoed by the editors of the magazine to address the question of whether the over-representation of black boxers was killing the sport at the box office.
This hoary premise had been kicking around even before the heyday of Jack Johnson, bubbling forth whenever an important black-on-black fight played to a sea of empty seats as had happened the previous year when Chicago’s Comiskey Park hosted the world heavyweight title fight between Ezzard Charles and Jersey Joe Walcott.
Jacobs ridiculed the hypothesis – as one could have expected considering the publication in which the story ran – and singled out three “colored” boxers as the best of the current crop of active pugilists: Sugar Ray Robinson, Ike Williams, and Freddie Dawson.
Sugar Ray Robinson? A no-brainer. Skill-wise the greatest of the great. Even those that didn’t follow boxing, would have recognized his name. Ike Williams? Nowhere near as well-known as Robinson, but he was then the reigning lightweight champion, a man destined to go into the International Boxing Hall of Fame with the inaugural class of 1990.
And Freddie Dawson? If the name doesn’t ring a bell, dear reader, you are not alone. I confess that I too drew a blank. And that triggered a search to learn more about him.
Freddie Dawson had four fights with Ike Williams. All four were staged on Ike’s turf in Philadelphia. Were this not the case, the history books would likely show the series knotted 2-2. Late in his career, Dawson became greatly admired in Australia. But we are jumping ahead of ourselves.
Dawson was born in 1924 in Thomasville, Arkansas, an unincorporated town in the Arkansas Delta. Likely a descendent of slaves who worked in the cotton plantations, he grew up in the so-called Bronzeville neighborhood of Chicago, the heart of Chicago’s Black Belt.
The first mention of him in the newspapers came in 1941 when he won Chicago’s Catholic Youth Organization (CYO) featherweight title. In those days, amateur boxing was big in the Windy City, the birthplace of the Golden Gloves. The Catholic Archdiocese, which ran gyms in every parish, and the Chicago Parks Department, were the major incubators.
In his amateur days, he was known as simply Fred Dawson. As a pro, his name often appeared as Freddy Dawson, although Freddie gradually became the more common spelling.
Dawson, who stood five-foot-six and was often described as stocky, made his pro debut on Feb. 1, 1943, at Marigold Gardens. Before the year was out, he had 16 fights under his belt, all in Chicago and all but two at Marigold. (Currently the site of an interdenominational Christian church, Marigold Gardens, on the city’s north side, was Chicago’s most active boxing and wrestling arena from the mid-1930s through the early-1950s. Joe Louis had three of his early fights there and Tony Zale was a fixture there as he climbed the ladder to the world middleweight title.)
The last of these 16 fights was fatal for Dawson’s opponent who collapsed heading back to his corner after the fight was stopped in the 10th round and died that night at a local hospital from the effects of a brain injury.
Dawson left town after this incident and spent most of the next year in New Orleans where energetic promoter Louis Messina ran twice-weekly shows (Mondays for whites and Fridays for blacks) at the Coliseum, a major stop on boxing’s so-called Chitlin’ Circuit.
That same year, on Sept. 19, 1944, Dawson had his first encounter with Ike Williams. He was winning the fight when Ike knocked him out with a body punch in the fourth round.
The first and last meetings between Dawson and Ike Williams were spaced five years apart. In the interim, Freddie scored his two best wins, stopping Vic Patrick in the twelfth round at Sydney, NSW, and Bernard Docusen in the sixth round in Chicago.
The long-reigning lightweight champion of Australia, Patrick (49-3, 43 KOs) gave the crowd a thrill when he knocked Dawson down for a count of “six” in the penultimate 11th round, but Dawson returned the favor twice in the final stanza, ending the contest with a punch so harsh that the poor Aussie needed five minutes before he was fit to leave the ring and would spend the night in the hospital as a precaution.
Dawson fought Bernard Docusen before 10,000-plus at Chicago Stadium on Feb. 4, 1949. An 8/5 favorite, Docusen lacked a hard punch, but the New Orleans cutie had suffered only three losses in 66 fights, had never been stopped, and had extended Sugar Ray Robinson the 15-round distance the previous year.
Dawson dismantled him. Docusen managed to get back on his feet after Dawson knocked him down in the sixth, but he was in no condition to continue and the referee waived the fight off. Dawson was then vacillating between the lightweight and welterweight divisions and reporters wondered whether it would be Robinson or Ike Williams when Dawson finally got his well-earned title shot.
Sugar Ray wasn’t in his future. Here are the results of his other matches with Ike Williams:
Dawson-Williams II (Jan. 28, 1946) – The consensus on press row was 7-2-1 or 7-3 for Dawson, but the match was ruled a draw. “[The judges and referee] evidently saw [Williams] land punches that nobody else did,” said the ringside reporter for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Dawson-Williams III (Jan. 26, 1948) – Dawson lost a majority decision. The scores were 6-4, 5-4-1, and 4-4-2. The decision was booed. Ike Williams then held the lightweight title, but this was a non-title fight. (It was tough for an outsider to get a fair shake in Philadelphia, home to Ike Williams’ co-manager Frank “Blinky” Palermo who would go to prison for his duplicitous dealings as a fight facilitator.)
Dawson-Williams IV (Dec. 5, 1949) – This would be Freddie Dawson’s only crack at a world title and he came up short. Ike Williams retained the belt, winning a unanimous decision. The fight was close – 8-7, 8-7, 9-6 – but there was no controversy.
Dawson made three more trips to Australia before his career was finished. On the first of these trips, he knocked out Jack Hassen, successor to Vic Patrick as the lightweight champion of Australia. A 1953 article in the Sydney Sunday Herald bore witness to the esteem in which Dawson was held by boxing fans in Australia: “None of our boxers could withstand his devastating attacks which not only knocked them out but also knocked years off their careers,” said the author. “It is doubtful whether any Australian boxer in any division could have beaten Dawson.”
Dawson had his final fights in the Land Down Under, finishing his career with a record of 103-14-4 while answering the bell for 962 rounds. Following what became his final fight, he had an eye operation in Sydney that was reportedly so intricate that it required a two-week hospital stay. He injured the eye again in Manila while sparring in preparation for a match with the welterweight champion of the Philippines, a match that had to be aborted because of the injury. Dawson then disappeared, by which we mean that he disappeared from the pages of the newspaper archives that allow us to construct these kinds of stories.
What about Freddie Dawson the man? A 1944 story about him said he was an outstanding all-around athlete, “a champion in all athletic undertakings – basketball, baseball, track and even jitterbugging.” A story in a Sydney paper as he was preparing to meet Vic Patrick informs us that he had two young children, ages 2 and 1, owned his own home in Chicago, and drove a two-year-old Cadillac. But beyond these flimsy snippets, Dawson the man remains elusive.
What we learned, however, is that he was one of the most underrated boxers to come down the pike in any era, a borderline Hall of Famer who ought not have fallen through the cracks. Inside the ring, this guy was one tough hombre.
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Ringside at the Fontainebleau where Mikaela Mayer Won her Rematch with Sandy Ryan

LAS VEGAS, NV — The first meeting between Mikaela Mayer and Sandy Ryan last September at Madison Square Garden was punctuated with drama before the first punch was thrown. When the smoke cleared, Mayer had become a world-title-holder in a second weight class, taking away Ryan’s WBO welterweight belt via a majority decision in a fan-friendly fight.
The rematch tonight at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas was another fan-friendly fight. There were furious exchanges in several rounds and the crowd awarded both gladiators a standing ovation at the finish.
Mayer dominated the first half of the fight and held on to win by a unanimous decision. But Sandy Ryan came on strong beginning in round seven, and although Mayer was the deserving winner, the scores favoring her (98-92 and 97-93 twice) fail to reflect the competitiveness of the match-up. This is the best rivalry in women’s boxing aside from Taylor-Serrano.
Mayer, 34, improved to 21-2 (5). Up next, she hopes, in a unification fight with Lauren Price who outclassed Natasha Jonas earlier this month and currently holds the other meaningful pieces of the 147-pound puzzle. Sandy Ryan, 31, the pride of Derby, England, falls to 7-3-1.
Co-Feature
In his first defense of his WBO world welterweight title (acquired with a brutal knockout of Giovani Santillan after the title was vacated by Terence Crawford), Atlanta’s Brian Norman Jr knocked out Puerto Rico’s Derrieck Cuevas in the third round. A three-punch combination climaxed by a short left hook sent Cuevas staggering into a corner post. He got to his feet before referee Thomas Taylor started the count, but Taylor looked in Cuevas’s eyes and didn’t like what he saw and brought the bout to a halt.
The stoppage, which struck some as premature, came with one second remaining in the third stanza.
A second-generation prizefighter (his father was a fringe contender at super middleweight), the 24-year-old Norman (27-0, 21 KOs) is currently boxing’s youngest male title-holder. It was only the second pro loss for Cuevas (27-2-1) whose lone previous defeat had come early in his career in a 6-rounder he lost by split decision.
Other Bouts
In a career-best performance, 27-year-old Brooklyn featherweight Bruce “Shu Shu” Carrington (15-0, 9 KOs) blasted out Jose Enrique Vivas (23-4) in the third round.
Carrington, who was named the Most Outstanding Boxer at the 2019 U.S. Olympic Trials despite being the lowest-seeded boxer in his weight class, decked Vivas with a right-left combination near the end of the second round. Vivas barely survived the round and was on a short leash when the third stanza began. After 53 seconds of round three, referee Raul Caiz Jr had seen enough and waived it off. Vivas hadn’t previously been stopped.
Cleveland welterweight Tiger Johnson, a Tokyo Olympian, scored a fifth-round stoppage over San Antonio’s Kendo Castaneda. Johnson assumed control in the fourth round and sent Castaneda to his knees twice with body punches in the next frame. The second knockdown terminated the match. The official time was 2:00 of round five.
Johnson advanced to 15-0 (7 KOs). Castenada declined to 21-9.
Las Vegas junior welterweight Emiliano Vargas (13-0, 11 KOs) blasted out Stockton, California’s Giovanni Gonzalez in the second round. Vargas brought the bout to a sudden conclusion with a sweeping left hook that knocked Gonzalez out cold. The end came at the 2:00 minute mark of round two.
Gonzalez brought a 20-7-2 record which was misleading as 18 of his fights were in Tijuana where fights are frequently prearranged. However, he wasn’t afraid to trade with Vargas and paid the price.
Emiliano Vargas, with his matinee idol good looks and his boxing pedigree – he is the son of former U.S. Olympian and two-weight world title-holder “Ferocious” Fernando Vargas – is highly marketable and has the potential to be a cross-over star.
Eighteen-year-old Newark bantamweight Emmanuel “Manny” Chance, one of Top Rank’s newest signees, won his pro debut with a four-round decision over So Cal’s Miguel Guzman. Chance won all four rounds on all three cards, but this was no runaway. He left a lot of room for improvement.
There was a long intermission before the co-main and again before the main event, but the tedium was assuaged by a moving video tribute to George Foreman.
Photos credit: Al Applerose
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William Zepeda Edges Past Tevin Farmer in Cancun; Improves to 34-0

William Zepeda Edges Past Tevin Farmer in Cancun; Improves to 34-0
No surprise, once again William Zepeda eked out a win over the clever and resilient Tevin Farmer to remain undefeated and retain a regional lightweight title on Saturday.
There were no knockdowns in this rematch.
The Mexican punching machine Zepeda (33-0, 17 KOs) once more sought to overwhelm Farmer (33-8-1, 9 KOs) with a deluge of blows. This rematch by Golden Boy Promotions took place in the famous beach resort area of Cancun, Mexico.
It was a mere four months ago that both first clashed in Saudi Arabia with their vastly difference styles. This time the tropical setting served as the background which suited Zepeda and his lawnmower assaults. The Mexican fans were pleased.
Nothing changed in their second meeting.
Zepeda revved up the body assault and Farmer moved around casually to his right while fending off the Mexican fighter’s attacks. By the fourth round Zepeda was able to cut off Farmer’s escape routes and targeted the body with punishing shots.
The blows came in bunches.
In the fifth round Zepeda blasted away at Farmer who looked frantic for an escape. The body assault continued with the Mexican fighter pouring it on and Farmer seeming to look ready to quit. When the round ended, he waved off his corner’s appeals to stop.
Zepeda continued to dominate the next few rounds and then Farmer began rallying. At first, he cleverly smothered Zepeda’s body attacks and then began moving and hitting sporadically. It forced the Mexican fighter to pause and figure out the strategy.
Farmer, a Philadelphia fighter, showed resiliency especially when it was revealed he had suffered a hand injury.
During the last three rounds Farmer dug down deep and found ways to score and not get hit. It was Boxing 101 and the Philly fighter made it work.
But too many rounds had been put in the bank by Zepeda. Despite the late rally by Farmer one judge saw it 114-114, but two others scored it 116-112 and 115-113 for Zepeda who retains his interim lightweight title and place at the top of the WBC rankings.
“I knew he was a difficult fighter. This time he was even more difficult,” said Zepeda.
Farmer was downtrodden about another loss but realistic about the outcome and starting slow.
“But I dominated the last rounds,” said Farmer.
Zepeda shrugged at the similar outcome as their first encounter.
“I’m glad we both put on a great show,” said Zepeda.
Female Flyweight Battle
Costa Rica’s Yokasta Valle edged past Texas fighter Marlen Esparza to win their showdown at flyweight by split decision after 10 rounds.
Valle moved up two weight divisions to meet Esparza who was slightly above the weight limit. Both showed off their contrasting styles and world class talent.
Esparza, a former unified flyweight world titlist, stayed in the pocket and was largely successful with well-placed jabs and left hooks. She repeatedly caught Valle in-between her flurries.
The current minimumweight world titlist changed tactics and found more success in the second half of the fight. She forced Esparza to make the first moves and that forced changes that benefited her style.
Neither fighter could take over the fight.
After 10 rounds one judge saw Esparza the winner 96-94, but two others saw Valle the winner 97-93 twice.
Will Valle move up and challenge the current undisputed flyweight world champion Gabriela Fundora? That’s the question.
Valle currently holds the WBC minimumweight world title.
Puerto Rico vs Mexico
Oscar Collazo (12-0, 9 KOs), the WBO, WBA minimumweight titlist, knocked out Mexico’s Edwin Cano (13-3-1, 4 KOs) with a flurry of body shots at 1:12 of the fifth round.
Collazo dominated with a relentless body attack the Mexican fighter could not defend. It was the Puerto Rican fighter’s fifth consecutive title defense.
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