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PREDICTION PAGE: Martinez or Cotto…Who Do Ya Like?

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Miguel Cotto and Sergio Martinez will lock horns at a historical temple on June 7.

Madison Square Garden, New York…Often referred to as the “Mecca of Boxing,” isn’t quite the major host venue of the sport it once was in decades gone by – the 30’s, 40’s, 50’s and 60’s.

Back in the early 70’s, promoters Bob Arum and Don King began to catapult their nomadic businesses westward to the gambling capital of the world, Las Vegas. During the 80’s and 90’s, the Garden firmly took a back seat as the outdoor venue, Caesars Palace, along with other Vegas hotel & casinos, became the new magnetic ground for the sport’s promoters to ply their trade. Great boxers like Holmes, Leonard, Hagler, Holyfield and De La Hoya, among many other names of hefty status, had the finest moments of their careers upon a temporarily constructed venue within the confinement of a car park at the rear of Caesars Palace.

With that said, the Garden never went truly out the window during the 80’s and 90’s. Middleweight king Marvin Hagler had one of the best and most convincing wins of his career inside the arena the night he rematched Mustafa Hamsho (Oct 19, 1984). He dominated contender Hamsho – stopping him inside the third of a scheduled 15 rounds. Hagler, the undisputed champion at 160 pounds, didn’t leave those tornadic fists behind at the Garden that particular night, though, as six months later (Apr 15, 1985) he would carry them into the ring again when he evaporated Thomas Hearns – within the same amounted rounds he crushed Hamsho – at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas.

Of more recent times, Bernard Hopkins had arguably the greatest moment of his long and illustrious career at the Garden, toppling the undefeated Felix Trinidad (Sep 29, 2001) in the 12th and last round. Hopkins, regularly cited among knowledgeable observers as the greatest middleweight since Hagler, moved through the gears as the fight progressed with a mixture of subtle punch-picking from the outside and tremendous infighting. Trinidad, a Puerto Rican, used to going through his opponents like a snow plow, was reduced to a heap on the canvas as Hopkins sunk to his knees to celebrate during that fateful final round.

Sergio Martinez (55-2-2, 28 KO’s), the WBC middleweight champion from Argentina, with his dazzling matinee idol looks, and Miguel Cotto (38-4, 31 KO’s) of Puerto Rico, with an earned reputation as a take-on-all-comers sort, will both be seeking to solidify themselves into the highest spot possible with a win against each other when it comes to the “pound for pound” reckoning, behind Floyd Mayweather and Andre Ward.

Weigh-in: Cotto 155 lbs; Martintez 158. 8 lbs.

Here are some predictions from fight game experts:

Jeff Mayweather, Proboxinginsider.com and Boxing/MMA trainer: I think it should be a very interesting fight. No one really knows what Martinez will show up. Cotto is a very tough customer but I think will be out gunned in this one.

Robbi Paterson, TSS : I think Martinez will win. But how he wins is another matter altogether. If he struggles with movement due to his recently operated knee, he’ll probably sneak out of the Garden with a close decision. It’s extremely crucial Cotto adjusts his height as he’s advancing, and he must do so behind his jab, too. He can’t solely rely on dropping into mid-range or inside without throwing his jab first. He can shrink the gap by stepping in with long strides behind the jab, then bring in his hooks and body punches thereafter. However, I think Martinez has enough tools to beat his smaller foe. It will be entertaining for as long as it lasts.

Matt Hamilton, ESNewsreporting.com: I feel that Sergio Martinez has more left in the tank. Having said that there are questions for Maravilla to answer. He’s been inactive and has lost – in impartial eyes – the majority for his last 13 rounds in a professional ring. A catchweight of 159 lbs, whilst an affront to purists still favors the Argentine, as Cotto has never scaled more than 154lbs. Additionally, Cotto is 6-4 in his last ten – 27-0 at 140lbs or below but 4-2 at 154lbs – so I’m very bullish on his prospects at, effectively, middleweight. Personally and frankly both guys are well past their best – Cotto is simply further down that downward spiral for me.

James Smith, Inthiscornertv.com: Unless Sergio has completely come undone due to age and all the injuries, he is simply too big, fast, powerful and athletic for Cotto and stops him late.

Rudy Hernandez, Los Angeles based trainer: I think it’s a very interesting fight. Most believe that Martinez will be too big and strong for Cotto. I didn’t think that Martinez was that big. I like Cotto to win this fight by decision – and be the first Puerto Rican fighter to win titles in four different divisions. I think Martinez is a broken and won’t be the fighter he was when he fought Chavez.

James Ali Bashir, trainer: I think it’s a terrible match up for Cotto. If Martinez’s injuries and inactivity haven’t set him back too far he’ll beat Miguel up – probably by decision or late stoppage. I just don’t see Miguel adjusting to Sergio’s awkwarndess – and he’ll be eating some vicious shots. No doubt, Martinez.

Sean Crose, Boxinginsider.com: We’re hearing a lot of talk about knockouts leading up to this fight. Thing is, I don’t think we’re going to see one. That doesn’t mean this fight won’t be a war, though. I expect Cotto to really surprise Martinez early and take it to him – sort of the way Maidana took it Floyd early on. In the end, however, I see Martinez’ athleticism and will power carrying the night. Martinez by split decision in a seasaw battle.

Ben Doughty, TipTV.co.uk: I’m going with Martinez on points. Neither are the fighter they once were. But I think Maravilla still has enough smarts to repel the challenge of a smaller Cotto, who was also bested by another slick southpaw in Austin Trout.

Bernard Fernandez, TSS, award-winning journalist: It remains to be seen whether Sergio Martinez, who was very nearly a medical invalid for at least a half-year after last year’s gimpy points victory over Martin Murray, has fully restored his body at age 38. But maybe 90 percent is good enough for “Maravilla” against a very capable challenger in Miguel Cotto, who will be making his first appearance at middleweight. I think Martinez feels he has something to prove to all the doubters and wins by late stoppage.

Rick Folstad, TSS, ex pro fighter: Martinez by decision. Martinez is naturally bigger than Cotto and I think he wanted this fight more than Cotto did.

Blake Hochberger, TSS, social media guru: I got Martinez by TKO10. I think it’s a close fight as Cotto is able to hurt Sergio in spurts, but Sergio’s movement/angles and use of distance will keep Cotto at the end of his punches and ultimately wear down the smaller man. Stoppage either by Freddie or doctor due to cuts.

Frank Lotierzo, TSS, best damn analyst in the universe: If Cotto were a legitimate middleweight, I think he has the style to bother Martinez – but he’s not. If Austin Trout can hold off and out-box Cotto, I have to believe that Martinez can do it. Sergio’s legs will have to hold up in order for him to move and pot-shot Cotto. I’m betting that his body has at least one more good fight left. Martinez’s legacy is riding on winning this fight. This is the signature bout of his career and I can’t pick against him fighting the smaller and slower Cotto. I like Martinez by decision or late round stoppage.

Aaron Lowinger, TSS, new guy on TSS block, rising star: This has all the looks of a perfect fight. If Cotto makes it into the eighth round with all of his faculties he could easily wear down the bigger man and test Sergio’s legs. But Cotto himself needs to be near perfect. I see Martinez stopping Cotto before the eighth. Just too much power and too many weapons.

Raymond Markarian, TSS,Round By Round wiz, doing Round by Round TONIGHT: I wish I could tell you who will win this fight after the first round. That’s when we will know if Miguel Cotto can get closer enough to get inside of Sergio Martinez, and work the body. But since we can’t fast forward, my money is on Martinez to win a decision.

Kelsey McCarson, TSS, tough Texan: Sergio Martinez is all kinds of wrong for Miguel Cotto. He’s bigger, faster and more powerful. He’s a southpaw. He’s a better athlete. He’s just an all around better fighter. The only way Cotto has a chance against Martinez is if the 39-year-old is too old and/or too injured to be effective. I’m guessing that won’t be the case, and Martinez will dominate Cotto and stop him before Round 9.

John Nguyen, TSS, analyst extraordinaire: I’m not sure I completely buy into this Cotto rebirth. It’s hard for me to get excited about Cotto’s splattering of Delvin Rodriguez since, really, Cotto did what he was supposed to: wipe out a seriously overmatched opponent. Who knows? Maybe it was just what the doctor ordered to boost Cotto’s confidence. I , however, think that many are reading a little too much into Cotto’s last fight, as Martinez is a completely different animal, even if he’s seen better days. I really don’t think Cotto will be able to dent Martinez’ chin, which has proven sturdy against the likes of Williams, Pavlik, and Chavez, all much bigger and stronger than Cotto. When Martinez has been dropped, it’s been due to bad balance, not bad whiskers. A healthy/semi-healthy Sergio is too big, strong, and fast for Cotto. Barring the very possible event of Martinez’ body unraveling, this looks like a methodical beatdown with Cotto on the wrong end of it. Martinez by mid to late round stoppage, possibly at the behest of Freddie Roach.

Aaron Tallent, TSS, wordsmith: Cotto definitely has more power than Martinez and if he is able to get inside, it could possibly be a short night. However, Martinez has shown of late that he is a master at using his size and reach to dictate the fight. Cotto will experience more of the same. Martinez by decision.

Chris Wheat, TSS, gritty vet: In a way this is a tossup, perhaps. If Sergio’s knee is 100% his speed, movement, and size should be enough to give him the win. If his knee is not strong and his movement suffers, Cotto’s body attack should give Cotto an edge and a way to win.

Michael Woods, TSS, bald, because he didn’t eat enough fruits and veggies growing up: Cotto just can’t bang up here, in the 160 hood, enough to hurt Sergio…unless Sergio blows out a knee in round three, or breaks a hand in round five. Then it could get dicy. I do truly believe that the presence of Freddie Roach is meaningful, that the semi-old dog Cotto can learn some new tricks, can be smarter in how he moves about the ring…so I see this as a closer fight than many folks do.

Lee Wylie, TSS, master of video analysis: For technical input, please refer to this short video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04eM_UwnLWI&feature=youtu.be

Ultimately, though, provided Martinez is fit and healthy, he takes Cotto out inside the distance.

Robbi Paterson is a feature writer/analyst who has contributed to various boxing websites, including TheSweetScience.com.

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 326: Top Rank and San Diego Smoke

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 326: Top Rank and San Diego Smoke

Years ago, I worked at a newsstand in the Beverly Hills area. It was a 24-hour a day version and the people that dropped by were very colorful and unique.

One elderly woman Eva, who bordered on homeless but pridefully wore lipstick, would stop by the newsstand weekly to purchase a pack of menthol cigarettes. On one occasion, she asked if I had ever been to San Diego?

I answered “yes, many times.”

She countered “you need to watch out for San Diego Smoke.”

This Saturday, Top Rank brings its brand of prizefighting to San Diego or what could be called San Diego Smoke. Leading the fight card is Mexico’s Emanuel Navarrete (39-2-1, 32 KOs) defending the WBO super feather title against undefeated Filipino Charly Suarez (18-0, 10 KOs) at Pechanga Arena. ESPN will televise.

This is Navarrete’s fourth defense of the super feather title.

The last time Navarrete stepped in the boxing ring he needed six rounds to dismantle the very capable Oscar Valdez in their rematch. One thing about Mexico City’s Navarrete is he always brings “the smoke.”

Also, on the same card is Fontana, California’s Raymond Muratalla (22-0, 17 KOs) vying for the interim IBF lightweight title against Russia’s Zaur Abdullaev (20-1, 12 KOs) on the co-main event.

Abdullaev has only fought once before in the USA and was handily defeated by Devin Haney back in 2019. But that was six years ago and since then he has knocked off various contenders.

Muratalla is a slick fighting lightweight who trains at the Robert Garcia Boxing Academy now in Moreno Valley, Calif. It’s a virtual boot camp with many of the top fighters on the West Coast available to spar on a daily basis. If you need someone bigger or smaller, stronger or faster someone can match those needs.

When you have that kind of preparation available, it’s tough to beat. Still, you have to fight the fight. You never know what can happen inside the prize ring.

Another fighter to watch is Perla Bazaldua, 19, a young and very talented female fighter out of the Los Angeles area. She is trained by Manny Robles who is building a small army of top female fighters.

Bazaldua (1-0, 1 KO) meets Mona Ward (0-1) in a super flyweight match on the preliminary portion of the Top Rank card. Top Rank does not sign many female fighters so you know that they believe in her talent.

Others on the Top Rank card in San Diego include Giovani Santillan, Andres Cortes, Albert Gonzalez, Sebastian Gonzalez and others.

They all will bring a lot of smoke to San Diego.

Probox TV

A strong card led by Erickson “The Hammer” Lubin (26-2, 18 KOs) facing Ardreal Holmes Jr. (17-0, 6 KOs) in a super welterweight clash between southpaws takes place on Saturday at Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, Florida. PROBOX TV will stream the fight card.

Ardreal has rocketed up the standings and now faces veteran Lubin whose only losses came against world titlists Sebastian Fundora and Jermell Charlo. It’s a great match to decide who deserves a world title fight next.

Another juicy match pits Argentina’s Nazarena Romero (14-0-2) against Mexico’s Mayelli Flores (12-1-1) in a female super bantamweight contest.

Nottingham, England

Anthony Cacace (23-1, 8 KOs) defends the IBO super featherweight title against Leigh Wood (28-3, 17 KOs) in Wood’s hometown on Saturday at Nottingham Arena in Nottingham, England. DAZN will stream the Queensberry Promotions card.

Ireland’s Cacace seems to have the odds against him. But he is no stranger to dancing in the enemy’s lair or on foreign territory. He formerly defeated Josh Warrington in London and Joe Cordina in Riyadh in IBO title defenses.

Lampley at Wild Card

Boxing telecaster Jim Lampley will be signing his new book It Happened! at the Wild Card Boxing gym in Hollywood, Calif. on Saturday, May 10, beginning at 2 p.m. Lampley has been a large part of many of the greatest boxing events in the past 40 years. He and Freddie Roach will be at the signing.

Fights to Watch (All times Pacific Time)

Sat. DAZN 11 a.m. Anthony Cacace (23-1) vs Leigh Wood (28-3).

Sat. PROBOX.tv 3 p.m. Erickson Lubin (26-2) vs Ardreal Holmes Jr. (17-0).

Sat. ESPN 7 p.m. Emanuel Navarrete (39-2-1) vs Charly Suarez (18-0); Raymond Muratalla (22-0) vs Zaur Abdullaev (20-1).

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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“Breadman” Edwards: An Unlikely Boxing Coach with a Panoramic View of the Sport

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Stephen “Breadman” Edwards’ first fighter won a world title. That may be some sort of record.

It’s true. Edwards had never trained a fighter, amateur or pro, before taking on professional novice Julian “J Rock” Williams. On May 11, 2019, Williams wrested the IBF 154-pound world title from Jarrett Hurd. The bout, a lusty skirmish, was in Fairfax, Virginia, near Hurd’s hometown in Maryland, and the previously undefeated Hurd had the crowd in his corner.

In boxing, Stephen Edwards wears two hats. He has a growing reputation as a boxing coach, a hat he will wear on Saturday, May 31, at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas when the two fighters that he currently trains, super middleweight Caleb Plant and middleweight Kyrone Davis, display their wares on a show that will air on Amazon Prime Video. Plant, who needs no introduction, figures to have little trouble with his foe in a match conceived as an appetizer to a showdown with Jermall Charlo. Davis, coming off his career-best win, an upset of previously undefeated Elijah Garcia, is in tough against fast-rising Cuban prospect Yoenli Hernandez, a former world amateur champion.

Edwards’ other hat is that of a journalist. His byline appears at “Boxing Scene” in a column where he answers questions from readers.

It’s an eclectic bag of questions that Breadman addresses, ranging from his thoughts on an upcoming fight to his thoughts on one of the legendary prizefighters of olden days. Boxing fans, more so than fans of any other sport, enjoy hashing over fantasy fights between great fighters of different eras. Breadman is very good at this, which isn’t to suggest that his opinions are gospel, merely that he always has something provocative to add to the discourse. Like all good historians, he recognizes that the best history is revisionist history.

“Fighters are constantly mislabled,” he says. “Everyone talks about Joe Louis’s right hand. But if you study him you see that his left hook is every bit as good as his right hand and it’s more sneaky in terms of shock value when it lands.”

Stephen “Breadman” Edwards was born and raised in Philadelphia. His father died when he was three. His maternal grandfather, a Korean War veteran, filled the void. The man was a big boxing fan and the two would watch the fights together on the family television.

Edwards’ nickname dates to his early teen years when he was one of the best basketball players in his neighborhood. The derivation is the 1975 movie “Cornbread, Earl and Me,” starring Laurence Fishburne in his big screen debut. Future NBA All-Star Jamaal Wilkes, fresh out of UCLA, plays Cornbread, a standout high school basketball player who is mistakenly murdered by the police.

Coming out of high school, Breadman had to choose between an academic scholarship at Temple or an athletic scholarship at nearby Lincoln University. He chose the former, intending to major in criminal justice, but didn’t stay in college long. What followed were a succession of jobs including a stint as a city bus driver. To stay fit, he took to working out at the James Shuler Memorial Gym where he sparred with some of the regulars, but he never boxed competitively.

Over the years, Philadelphia has harbored some great boxing coaches. Among those of recent vintage, the names George Benton, Bouie Fisher, Nazeem Richardson, and Bozy Ennis come quickly to mind. Breadman names Richardson and West Coast trainer Virgil Hunter as the men that have influenced him the most.

We are all a product of our times, so it’s no surprise that the best decade of boxing, in Breadman’s estimation, was the 1980s. This was the era of the “Four Kings” with Sugar Ray Leonard arguably standing tallest.

Breadman was a big fan of Leonard and of Leonard’s three-time rival Roberto Duran. “I once purchased a DVD that had all of Roberto Duran’s title defenses on it,” says Edwards. “This was a back before the days of YouTube.”

But Edwards’ interest in the sport goes back much deeper than the 1980s. He recently weighed in on the “Pittsburgh Windmill” Harry Greb whose legend has grown in recent years to the point that some have come to place him above Sugar Ray Robinson on the list of the greatest of all time.

“Greb was a great fighter with a terrific resume, of that there is no doubt,” says Breadman, “but there is no video of him and no one alive ever saw him fight, so where does this train of thought come from?”

Edwards notes that in Harry Greb’s heyday, he wasn’t talked about in the papers as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. The boxing writers were partial to Benny Leonard who drew comparisons to the venerated Joe Gans.

Among active fighters, Breadman reserves his highest praise for Terence Crawford. “Body punching is a lost art,” he once wrote. “[Crawford] is a great body puncher who starts his knockouts with body punches, but those punches are so subtle they are not fully appreciated.”

If the opening line holds up, Crawford will enter the ring as the underdog when he opposes Canelo Alvarez in September. Crawford, who will enter the ring a few weeks shy of his 38th birthday, is actually the older fighter, older than Canelo by almost three full years (it doesn’t seem that way since the Mexican redhead has been in the public eye so much longer), and will theoretically be rusty as 13 months will have elapsed since his most recent fight.

Breadman discounts those variables. “Terence is older,” he says, “but has less wear and tear and never looks rusty after a long layoff.” That Crawford will win he has no doubt, an opinion he tweaked after Canelo’s performance against William Scull: “Canelo’s legs are not the same. Bud may even stop him now.”

Edwards has been with Caleb Plant for Plant’s last three fights. Their first collaboration produced a Knockout of the Year candidate. With one ferocious left hook, Plant sent Anthony Dirrell to dreamland. What followed were a 12-round setback to David Benavidez and a ninth-round stoppage of Trevor McCumby.

Breadman keeps a hectic schedule. From Monday through Friday, he’s at the DLX Gym in Las Vegas coaching Caleb Plant and Kyrone Davis. On weekends, he’s back in Philadelphia, checking in on his investment properties and, of greater importance, watching his kids play sports. His 14-year-old daughter and 12-year-old son are standout all-around athletes.

On those long flights, he has plenty of time to turn on his laptop and stream old fights or perhaps work on his next article. That’s assuming he can stay awake.

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Arne’s Almanac: The Good, the Bad, and the (Mostly) Ugly; a Weekend Boxing Recap and More

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Arne’s Almanac: The Good, the Bad, and the (Mostly) Ugly; a Weekend Boxing Recap and More

It’s old news now, but on back-to-back nights on the first weekend of May, there were three fights that finished in the top six snoozefests ever as measured by punch activity. That’s according to CompuBox which has been around for 40 years.

In Times Square, the boxing match between Devin Haney and Jose Carlos Ramirez had the fifth-fewest number of punches thrown, but the main event, Ryan Garcia vs. Rolly Romero, was even more of a snoozefest, landing in third place on this ignoble list.

Those standings would be revised the next night – knocked down a peg when Canelo Alvarez and William Scull combined to throw a historically low 445 punches in their match in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 152 by the victorious Canelo who at least pressed the action, unlike Scull (pictured) whose effort reminded this reporter of “Cat on a Hot Tin Roof” – no, not the movie starring Paul Newman, just the title.

CompuBox numbers, it says here, are best understood as approximations, but no amount of rejiggering can alter the fact that these three fights were stinkers. Making matters worse, these were pay-per-views. If one had bundled the two events, rather than buying each separately, one would have been out $90 bucks.

****

Thankfully, the Sunday card on ESPN from Las Vegas was redemptive. It was just what the sport needed at this moment – entertaining fights to expunge some of the bad odor. In the main go, Naoya Inoue showed why he trails only Shohei Ohtani as the most revered athlete in Japan.

Throughout history, the baby-faced assassin has been a boxing promoter’s dream. It’s no coincidence that down through the ages the most common nickname for a fighter – and by an overwhelming margin — is “Kid.”

And that partly explains Naoya Inoue’s charisma. The guy is 32 years old, but here in America he could pass for 17.

Joey Archer

Joey Archer, who passed away last week at age 87 in Rensselaer, New York, was one of the last links to an era of boxing identified with the nationally televised Friday Night Fights at Madison Square Garden.

Joey Archer

Joey Archer

Archer made his debut as an MSG headliner on Feb. 4, 1961, and had 12 more fights at the iconic mid-Manhattan sock palace over the next six years. The final two were world title fights with defending middleweight champion Emile Griffith.

Archer etched his name in the history books in November of 1965 in Pittsburgh where he won a comfortable 10-round decision over Sugar Ray Robinson, sending the greatest fighter of all time into retirement. (At age 45, Robinson was then far past his peak.)

Born and raised in the Bronx, Joey Archer was a cutie; a clever counter-puncher recognized for his defense and ultimately for his granite chin. His style was embedded in his DNA and reinforced by his mentors.

Early in his career, Archer was domiciled in Houston where he was handled by veteran trainer Bill Gore who was then working with world lightweight champion Joe Brown. Gore would ride into the Hall of Fame on the coattails of his most famous fighter, “Will-o’-the Wisp” Willie Pep. If Joey Archer had any thoughts of becoming a banger, Bill Gore would have disabused him of that notion.

In all honesty, Archer’s style would have been box office poison if he had been black. It helped immensely that he was a native New Yorker of Irish stock, albeit the Irish angle didn’t have as much pull as it had several decades earlier. But that observation may not be fair to Archer who was bypassed twice for world title fights after upsetting Hurricane Carter and Dick Tiger.

When he finally caught up with Emile Griffith, the former hat maker wasn’t quite the fighter he had been a few years earlier but Griffith,  a two-time Fighter of the Year by The Ring magazine and the BWAA and a future first ballot Hall of Famer, was still a hard nut to crack.

Archer went 30 rounds with Griffith, losing two relatively tight decisions and then, although not quite 30 years old, called it quits. He finished 45-4 with 8 KOs and was reportedly never knocked down, yet alone stopped, while answering the bell for 365 rounds. In retirement, he ran two popular taverns with his older brother Jimmy Archer, a former boxer who was Joey’s trainer and manager late in Joey’s career.

May he rest in peace.

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