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I’d Rather Be Wrong Picking Hopkins Over Kovalev Than The Opposite

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Tonight, WBA/IBF light heavyweight title holder Bernard Hopkins 55-6-2 (32) will meet WBO light heavyweight title holder Sergey Kovalev 25-0-1 (23). Hopkins, 49, just nine weeks shy of 50, is roughly a 3-1 underdog in the bout. And that’s mainly because of his age and the fact that many boxing observers see Kovalev as being the hardest puncher and most dangerous fighter Hopkins will fight since moving up to light heavyweight a little over eight years ago.

Hopkins was a solid underdog in his maiden light heavyweight bout when he challenged Antonio Tarver for the “Ring Magazine” lineal title during the summer of 2006. Back then Hopkins was coming off two suspect decision losses to Jermain Taylor, thus losing all four of his middleweight title belts. The thought at the time was, Tarver, who beat Roy Jones in their rubber match in his last bout, would be too big and strong for the 3-1 underdog Hopkins. Like many, I figured that if Hopkins couldn’t conclusively beat Taylor once in two fights, how he would handle the bigger and stronger Tarver, who was much more seasoned and tested than Taylor.

Now here we are again. In Kovalev, Hopkins is facing another physically big and strong light heavyweight, like Tarver, only Hopkins is 49, not 41. Kovalev’s reputation is even bigger than what Tarver’s was as far as being a “catch n’ kill” knockout artist. However, nobody mentions how Tarver clearly faced and defeated a significantly better grade of fighters than what Kovalev has faced in his 26 professional bouts. And needless for me to overstate it, Hopkins literally and figuratively took Tarver apart the night they fought. Hopkins had Tarver down in the fifth round and routed him by the scores of 118-109 on all three judges’ scorecards.

I said after that fight I would never pick against Hopkins again. Well I did, I picked him to lose to both Joe Calzaghe and Chad Dawson by decision, and he did. Although I did have him beating Calzaghe by a point. That said, my reasoning for picking Calzaghe and Dawson to beat Hopkins was based strictly on style. It’s been my belief, especially since the two Taylor fights and his move up to light heavyweight, that Hopkins is most vulnerable to quicker handed and footed fighters who look to get in and get out. Basically, they beat Hopkins at playing touch and tag and don’t even attempt to hurt or knock him out. As opposed to power driven fighters like Tarver, Kelly Pavlik and Jean Pascal, who looked to impose themselves physically on Hopkins.

Since the Tarver fight I’ve contended that it’ll take a fighter with more than sheer power and aggression to beat Hopkins. And when all is said and done, what is Sergey Kovalev’s identity? It’s power and steady pressure. Yes, he’s a tall and rangy light heavyweight. But unlike past Hopkins opponents, he does his best work from mid-range and can probably hurt Hopkins without having to get inside or crowd him, something that could very well be a key to a Kovalev victory. Then again if Hopkins isn’t bothered much by Kovalev’s Sunday punches, regardless where they’re launched from, it’s unlikely he’ll win.

I’ve been thinking about who I like in this fight since it was signed. It’s been a long time since I’ve gone back and forth so much in trying to decide who I think will win a fight. And that of course is why the bout is so intriguing and much anticipated. Will power and aggression overcome technical proficiency and experience -or- will wisdom and versatility trump physicality and youth?

I generally have an opinion about who’ll win an upcoming fight, but this is one where I just can’t get a firm feel for it. Aside from Hopkins by early kayo, I can picture almost any result here.

So here are my thoughts:

I know Hopkins has taken the bullets away from every big puncher he has ever faced, and reduced them to looking like they were trying to knock out a sheet hung over a clothes line. Kovalev is perceived as being the best two-handed puncher in the light heavyweight division. Hopkins’ last three opponents Beibut Shumenov, Karo Murat and Tavoris Cloud all went the distance with him and only Shumenov touched the canvas. Kovalev is bigger, stronger and much more capable and dangerous than the three of them combined.

Hopkins is closer to 50 years old than 49. He’s not the fighter he was five years ago. As much as I love Bernard as a fighter, he really hasn’t beaten anyone close to being special in awhile and, Kovalev has never faced a special fighter. I also don’t know if Sergey Kovalev is special, but if I had to bet, I think there’s a good chance he just may be. I also don’t believe Hopkins is going to be able to unravel Kovalev the way he has done so many other big punchers and opponents. I get the feeling Kovalev isn’t the type to come undone by some of the deceptions and mirages that Hopkins presents. Add to that I think Kovalev being able to get Hopkins’ respect from mid-range because he’s not a big hooker and does damage when he catches you at the end of his punches, could be a big factor.

Another thing I’m looking at, is Kovalev is going to be making the fight (regardless of what Hopkins has hinted regarding switching roles for this fight). With Kovalev pushing the action and most likely landing the bigger shots, that’ll make it easier for the judges to give him rounds. And lastly, it’s better business if Kovalev wins. Like Gennady Golovkin, Sergey can be promoted as a killer, only he’ll have superior credentials to Golovkin if he beats Hopkins. Make that 10-fold if he stops him.

Boxing’s new stars are knocking at the door. With a win against Hopkins, Kovalev will be the fighter standing behind it when it opens. Kovalev’s size, power, youth and corner, along with my belief that the boxing establishment (which will factor into the decision if it’s close) is looking to get rid of Hopkins and use his name to promote its latest emerging star, makes it very tempting to go with Kovalev.

But I can’t.

I remember when Evander Holyfield and Riddick Bowe met the first time for Holyfield’s undisputed heavyweight title. My belief at the time was, Bowe had the style and size to really give Holyfield trouble and beat him. However, I had questions about Bowe’s stamina and character. Had I not had those questions regarding Bowe, I may have picked him to beat Holyfield. But I couldn’t get past those voices in my head about Bowe. And the last fighter I’m picking to beat Holyfield in his first big fight is a fighter who I had questions about pertaining to his constitution and stamina. So I went with Holyfield and was wrong because Bowe fought the greatest fight of his life that night. And you know what, I’ve never questioned my decision for going with Holyfield for the reasons that I did.

In some ways, Hopkins-Kovalev, when it comes to picking the winner, reminds me of how I felt in the leadup to Holyfield-Bowe I. I know what Hopkins is, and that’s a great fighter/boxer/technician that is as tough and durable as any fighter ever. There are no questions or unknowns about Hopkins. The only question is, when Father Time will finally catch up with him. He’s two months shy of 50 years old, that day is drawing closer every time he enters the ring. Will it be against Kovalev, maybe? I think I know what kind of a commodity that Sergey Kovalev may be, but I do have some unanswered questions. Would I be surprised if Kovalev beat Hopkins, no. However, he doesn’t get the benefit of my doubt until his next fight after Hopkins, if he wins. I know what I’m getting in Hopkins; I don’t fully know that about Kovalev.

So I’m gonna roll with the known entity, Hopkins. And that’s simply because I’d rather be wrong Sunday morning going with the proven great fighter who became an old fighter on Saturday night, as opposed to being wrong Sunday morning because the old all-time great fighter schooled the up and coming, but untested, next guy.

Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com

Photo Credit : David Spagnolo

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 297: Callum Walsh in Dublin, Anthony Joshua and More

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 297: Callum Walsh in Dublin, Anthony Joshua and More

All eyes point toward the British Isles this weekend and the American wild west.

In back-to-back days, several of that European region’s best pugilists headline cards in Dublin then in London.

It all begins with super welterweight contender Callum Walsh, the Irish fighter from Cork who trains in Hollywood, Calif. with one of the masters, Freddie Roach.

On Friday, Sept. 20, Walsh (11-0, 9 KOs) meets Poland’s Przemyslaw Runowski (22-2-1, 6 KOs) at 3Arena Dublin in Dublin, Ireland for a regional super welterweight title. UFC Fight Pass will stream the 360 Promotions card at 9:30 a.m. Pacific Time.

Straight from the sweaty gyms of Hollywood, Ireland’s Walsh (pictured on the left) returns home to native soil where he intends to showcase the ever-growing skills learned from Southern California’s hotbed of pro boxing.

On any given day a number of veteran fighters can be found to spar and learn.

Walsh, also known as King Callum, has been one of many Irish fighters who uprooted themselves from the comforts of home and moved to Southern California to find a myriad of styles from boxers coming from all parts of the world.

The hard-charging Walsh finally returns to perform in the heart of Ireland. His speed, power and skills have enabled him to eliminate nine of 11 opponents via knockout.

Dana White, his manager, will be attending the fight.

“Love the fact that he’s not fighting guys to pad his record, like the typical boxing model. This is a kid who really believes in himself and his potential to become a world champion,” said White the president of the UFC organization. “I also love the fact that one of the greatest trainers in the history of the sport, Freddie Roach, believes in him. I am very invested in this fight in Dublin and I’m really excited to not only bring a fight back to Ireland but to be sitting ringside to see Callum fight in his home country.”

Poland’s Runowski has never been stopped and has a string of victories against top competition. This match will prove who moves on toward elite competition.

Saturday in London

In London, England on Saturday, top heavyweights Anthony Joshua and Daniel Dubois lead an impressive Matchroom Boxing fight card at Wembley Stadium. DAZN will stream the card.

Joshua (28-3, 25 KOs) and Dubois (21-2, 20 KOs) fight for the IBF heavyweight title. Both have recently looked in peak form. Look for a stoppage in this fight between knockout experts.

Dubois only lost to Okesandr Usyk and should have been ruled the winner when he floored the champion with a body shot a year ago. The referee erroneously ruled it a low blow. The titles should have been given to Dubois at that moment. Instead, Usyk rallied and stopped the British fighter in the ninth.

Since that loss, Dubois knocked out Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic.

Former champion Joshua has never looked better and recently destroyed MMA star Francis Ngannou who gave Tyson Fury fits when they fought. Not so against Joshua who mercilessly blew him out in two rounds.

Also featured on the card are Hamzah Sheeraz, who recently defeated Ammo Williams via knockout plus Josh Warrington, Josh Kelly and undefeated Joshua Buatsi. It’s a front-loaded boxing card.

Wild West USA

Mexico’s former champion Jaime Munguia (43-1, 34 KOs) makes his debut on a Top Rank card against undefeated Armenian super middleweight Erik Bazinyan (32-0-1, 23 KOs) on Friday Sept. 20, at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. ESPN will televise the Top Rank card.

It’s Munguia’s first fight since losing to boxing kingpin Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. No shame in that. But he is facing another Canadian prospect who has never lost. Recently, that country has been developing some very good pugilists like another super middleweight Christian Mbilli.

The Top Rank card is loaded with highly-regarded prospects such as Richard Torrez Jr., Emiliano Vargas, Alan “Kid Kansas” Garcia and others.

LA Area

A half dozen undefeated fighters including Daniel Cruz (7-0) against Recky Dulay (11-9) meet on Friday Sept. 20, for KO Fight Night at Farallon Event Center in Lynwood, Calif.

Among the undefeated fighters on the House of Pain fight card are Mathias Radcliffe, DeAngelo Evans, Luis Rubalvaca, and Jose Casillas.

Doors open at 6 p.m.

Fights to Watch  (all times Pacific Time)

Fri. UFC Fight Pass 9:30 a.m. Callum Walsh (11-0) vs Przemyslaw Runowski (22-2-1)

Fri. ESPN 7:30 p.m. Jaime Munguia (43-1) vs Erik Bazinyan (32-0-1).

Sat. DAZN 10 a.m. Anthony Joshua (28-3) and Dubois (21-2).

Photo courtesy of Zuffa

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Mikaelian vs Rozicki POSTPONED Amidst Rumors that Promoter Don King is Ailing

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The WBC world cruiserweight title fight between Ryan Rozicki and Noel Mikaelian, slated for Sept. 28 at Miami Casino Jai Alai in Miami, Florida has been postponed. A terse press release attributed to Don King Promotions, Three Lion Promotions (Rozicki’s promoter) and the WBC was issued today. No reason was given for the postponement. It merely said, “we are working diligently to set a new date and should have a new date to announce in the days to come.”

An Armenian who has done most of his fighting in Germany and now lives and trains in Miami, Mikaelian (aka Noel Gevor) sports a 27-2 (12 KOs) record and would be making the first defense of the title he won with a third-round stoppage of Ilunga Makabu on a Don King card in Miami in November of last year. Canada’s Rozicki (20-1, 19 KOs) suffered his lone defeat at the hands of Oscar Rivas in October of 2021. That match, which went the full 12 rounds, is recognized by the WBC as the first Bridgerweight title fight. Plagued with chronic eye problems, Rivas would never fight again.

This is the second time that the Mikaelian-Rozicki match has been postponed. They were originally scheduled to fight on June 7 at the Seminole Hard Rock Casino and Resort in Hollywood, Florida, but Mikaelian (pictured on the left) suffered an eye injury just days before the fight and the match evaporated. Mikaelian’s injury bumped the welterweight contest between Blair Cobbs and Adrien Broner into the main event. Cobbs won a 10-round unanimous decision.

The news of this second postponement spawned talk in online chat rooms to the effect that Don King had fallen seriously ill. According to one private correspondence shared with this reporter this morning at a local boxing gym, King had suffered a near-death experience and would be stepping away from boxing for one year.

This allegation could not be substantiated. More than that, reliable sources say it should be dismissed as an UNFOUNDED rumor. Considering all the misinformation on social media, perhaps I was remiss in not keeping it under my hat.

At one time the most powerful boxing promoter in the world, Don King turned 93 last month.

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Reflections on Yoenli Hernandez and the New Wave of Outstanding Cuban Boxers

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Reflections on Yoenli Hernandez and the New Wave of Outstanding Cuban Boxers

Cuban boxers were 2-0 at the T-Mobile Arena on Mexican Independence Day weekend in Las Vegas. Erislandy Lara toyed with listless Danny Garcia for nine rounds before Garcia’s corner stopped the bout. Yoenli Hernandez improved to 5-0 with his fifth knockout, dismissing his Mexican opponent in the second round.

Lara, who was appearing his nineteenth 12-round fight, is 41 years old. Yoenli Hernandez (pictured) is 27. However, although separated by only 14 years, they effectively represent two different generations of Cuban boxers. Hernandez is part of the new wave that includes super-hot prospects Arlen Lopez and Andy Cruz.

A light heavyweight, Lopez, 31, was an Olympic gold medalist in Rio and in Tokyo, but came up short in his bid to become only the fourth boxer (and third Cuban) to achieve the Olympic hat trick, losing a split decision to Ukraine’s Oleksandr Khyzhniak in the semi-final round of the recent Paris Games. As a pro, he’s 3-0 (2 KOs).

A lightweight, Andy Cruz, 29, was 4-for-4 against Keyshawn Davis as an amateur, with the last of those four wins coming in the gold medal round of the Tokyo Olympiad. He’s 4-0 (2 KOs) as a pro with all four of those wins coming against experienced opponents in matches slated for 10 rounds.

Yoenli Hernandez (sometimes identified as Yoenlis Feliciano) wasn’t an Olympian, but he was a World Amateur Champion who finished his amateur career with 26 straight wins. He turned pro along with Arlen Lopez and four other elite Cuban amateurs on May 20, 2022 in Aguascalientes, Mexico, an historic day in the history of Cuban boxing as it was the first time that members of the Cuban National Team competed as pros with the blessing of the Cuban government.

Cuba has spawned a number of notable boxers over the years. Kid Gavilan, the Cuban Hawk, master of the bolo punch, won the world welterweight title in 1951 with a unanimous decision over Johnny Bratton at Madison Square Garden and successfully defended it seven times. By some accounts, he was Cuba’s first true world title-holder. Kid Chocolate (Eligio Sardinas) captured world titles as a featherweight and a junior lightweight in the early 1930’s, but neither title was recognized overseas — the junior lightweight division then lacked traction and his featherweight diadem was the New York State version of it.

Kid Gavilan and Kid Chocolate have plaques in the International Boxing Hall of Fame as does Luis Rodriguez who captured the world welterweight title at LA’s Dodger Stadium in 1963 in his second of four meetings with arch-rival Emile Griffith. Rodriguez and his compatriot Florentino Fernandez, a world title challenger as a middleweight, both had their first U.S. fights in 1959, the year that Fidel Castro’s rebels  overthrew the Batista regime. They trained at Chris Dundee’s iconic Miami Beach gym alongside the fighter who would take the name Muhammad Ali.

Two future greats — featherweight Ultiminio “Sugar” Ramos and welterweight Jose “Mantequilla” Napoles — left Cuba a bit later and settled in Mexico. Although they won world titles in U.S. rings, they never left their adopted home. Both were residents of Mexico City at the time of their passing.

As is well known, Fidel Castro abolished professional sports. Moreover, there was a long lag after he came to power before elite Cuban boxers had the temerity to defect.

Cuban boxers dominated the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, sending nine of a possible 12 boxers to the gold medal round, seven of whom emerged victorious. Of the medal winners, only bantamweight Joel Casamayor left for the United States, and he did not defect until four years later on the eve of the Atlanta Summer Games. Eventually 12 other Cuban boxers – several who arrived in the U.S. before him — would join Casamayor in a stable that took the name Team Freedom. Casamayor was the best of the bunch, winning world titles as a pro at 130 and 135 pounds.

Team Freedom evolved into Warriors Boxing. The South Florida agency, run by Luis De Cubas Sr. and Leon Margules, is the dominant force in the Cuban-American boxing community. De Cubas, who once owned a piece of Roberto Duran, was born in Cuba and spent his formative years in Minnesota before settling in Miami at age 24. His business partner Margules is a Fort Lauderdale attorney.

Yoenli Hernandez’s manager of record is Providence, Rhode Island businessman Robert Valle, but Warriors Boxing, which also controls WBA (regular) light heavyweight champion David Morrell, has its fingers in the pie. Virtually every boxer who defected from Cuba during the Castro years was helped along the way by Luis De Cubas and his associates. His name now appears on the ballot for the International Boxing Hall of Fame and it’s a fair guess that he will go in with the next class of inductees.

In many ways, things have gotten worse in Cuba since Fidel Castro passed away in 2016. More than a million Cubans – roughly 10 percent of the population – left the island nation between 2022 and 2023, the largest wave of out-migration in Cuba’s history. Of that number, more than 400,000 settled in the Unites States, mostly in the Miami area.

Within that diaspora were many of Cuba’s most talented boxers. Those that leave for greener pastures are no longer stamped an enemy of the state. Restrictions have been eased for people traveling back and forth between the two countries.

Cuban boxers were well-represented on the rosters of the teams in the newfangled Team Combat League where men compete in one-round matches across six weight categories. One doesn’t have to like the concept to appreciate the fact that the TCL has been a godsend to boxers who would otherwise have trouble staying busy while also putting a few dollars in their pocket to help pay the bills during the lacuna between conventional prizefights.

The novice professionals from Cuba who have competed in these events tend to be younger than their predecessors who left Cuba to launch their pro careers. To take but two examples, light heavyweight Brayon Leon and welterweight Darian Castro, both strong prospects who excelled at the TCL brand of fisticuffing (a combined 22-2) are 22 and 21 years old respectively.

The takeaway is that we will be hearing a lot more about Cuban boxers in the next few years. And if Yoenli Hernandez becomes a big name in the sport, remember that you heard it here first.

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