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Why Pacquiao Can Beat Mayweather
The speculation may not have quite reached fever-pitch yet, but here we fight fans are again dreaming of a match up betwixt Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. We’ve been teased so many times, it’s hard to invest too much on the recent swirl of rumors that suggest maybe, just maybe, 2015 will be the year.
Manny, the ever polite Filipino, seems to have found a way to get under Floyd’s skin without resorting to the sort of wild eye braggadocio that other fighters resort to. Manny has taken on the part of the happy warrior, cheerfully poking at Mayweather every chance he gets.
Foot Locker released the ad below of Manny mistakenly thinking an unnamed (har-har) fighter has finally agreed to meet him in the ring. The glee and excitement exhorted by Pacman is not only palpable, but pretty damn funny too.
Link for Foot Locker Video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS8WJ6Lz1AU
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As well, after dominating Chris Algieri for 12 rounds on November 22nd, Manny reverted back to his Foot Locker character (“He’s going to fight me!”) when Floyd was mentioned in the post-fight interview. In politics, they say the best way to insult your opponent is to say awful things about them, but to do it with a smile. Of late, Manny seems to have taken that to heart like it’s his only job.
Manny isn’t doing it on his own either. Freddie Roach works the bad cop just as well as Manny works the good cop. Asked about A Manny/Floyd fight prior to the Algieri scrap, Freddie derisively said, “who the hell knows what’s going on with him.” In September, Freddie went even further, saying, “At this point, I think Mayweather’s legs aren’t there anymore. He’s not as sharp as Manny is, if you compare his last fight (against Marcos Maidana) with Manny’s last fight. Three years ago, I thought it was a dead-even fight and real tough fight to pick. Now, I don’t think that. I think we can knock Mayweather out at this point.”
The word is Freddie has been encouraging Manny to bring up the Foot Locker ad as often as possible. Roach and Pac seem to believe they have stumbled onto a formula. Manny grins and pokes fun, Freddie snarls and suggests Floyd’s not what he once was. Before, Floyd would be dismissive and find contractual impediments to avoid the fight (excessive blood testing, uneven financial splits, etc.), and when Manny agreed to nearly everything, Floyd would change the terms again.
Just last week, while watching a college basketball game on ESPN, I saw a crawl come across the ticker at the bottom of my screen. Floyd’s team had reached out to Roach demanding a rematch clause be placed into the contract should Mayweather lose. Apparently, Freddie said yes. Two thoughts entered my mind when I read this. One: This is starting to sound serious. Two: Wait…Floyd thinks he could lose?
The mind games appear to be working. Just this September, Floyd posted an image on Instagram he titled “3 ways to sleep. Back, face, and butt” showing Pacquiao on the canvas after his knock out loss to Marquez. The verbal battle has been joined, and the pressure is starting to mount.
While one could argue with ease that Floyd doesn’t need the money that would come with fighting Pac, he has to know the amount will be enormous. And if there’s one thing the “Money Man” likes, it’s more money. While I certainly think Floyd believes he would beat Manny, he must have questions. I’ve always felt if Floyd were to fight Manny, he would attempt to wait until Manny’s more risky, combative style would begin to atrophy his skill level while Floyd would continue to fight quality—if well matched—opponents that would largely leave himself undiminished. After the loss to Bradley (well, if you call that a loss), the KO against Marquez, and a seemingly safer approach in the ring by Manny that has led to questions about Manny’s desire and ability to score knock outs—it’s been five years since he TKO’d Cotto in the 12th– it would seem Floyd’s played this perfectly. So what’s holding Floyd up?
The only thing Floyd may cherish more than dead presidents is a living legacy. That legacy is highlighted by that career zero in the loss column. Floyd has often played it safe in his career. He’s an expert at fighting a guy when he’s either just a bit too green or a bit too rusty. For all Floyd’s innumerable skills, caution is the one he should be best known for. And let’s be clear, Floyd isn’t quite the same Floyd he used to be either. Both De La Hoya and Cotto marked him up. For one brief moment Mosley nearly had Floyd face first on the canvas had Mayweather not leaned in and held on to Shane’s frame to keep himself upright. In their first fight, Maidana put tremendous pressure on “Money” and Floyd needed to squeak out a majority decision. Does anyone not think Manny is better than all those guys?
Manny and Floyd have had a number of common opponents. The results, while not conclusive, are instructive.
• De La Hoya—Floyd earned a split decision (should have been a UD), against Manny, Oscar quit on his stool after the 8th.
• Ricky Hatton—Floyd defeated the Brit by 10th round TKO, Manny flattened Hatton in the 2nd with a wicked one punch KO.
• Shane Mosley—both fighters beat Sugar Shane easily, but Pac scored a knock down and Floyd was hurt early in his bout.
• Miguel Cotto—Floyd won a spirited unanimous decision that left his face swollen, Manny earned a 12th round TKO after battering the hell out of Cotto for the length of the fight.
• Juan Manuel Marquez—Floyd won a dominant unanimous decision, Manny went 2-1-1 against Marquez and suffered his most devastating loss.
Of their five common opponents, it’s hard to argue that Floyd outshined Manny against any of them with the notable exception of Marquez. Now to be fair, this is somewhat of a dangerous exercise and probably a poor predictor of what would happen if and when Manny and Floyd do get in the ring. Styles make fights, as they say. What it does illustrate though, is in the abstract, they are well matched.
While I do think it is not only fair to consider Floyd a favorite in a proposed fight, I suspect it is more than likely. What is also fair to say is Floyd has never faced anyone like Manny before and here is why Manny could win and why no one should be shocked if he did.
Both fighters have extremely fast hands. However, Manny is more likely to let his go, resulting in higher volume. While Floyd’s foot work and shoulder rolls are likely to result in many a glancing blow, most judges prefer activity to defense. Manny’s footwork and angles are not comparable to any other fighter in the game today. Manny’s quick feet allow him to be offensive and defensive at the same time. He can throw punches from almost any position and be difficult to hit due to that unpredictability. For a great offensive fighter, he’s seldom exactly where you expect him to be. Finally, power and accuracy. Manny probably hits harder than anyone Floyd has ever fought. He also lands an unusually high percentage of blows during any given fight.
In short, Floyd’s just never seen anything like Manny before. A quick drawing, powerful volume puncher, who is both highly skilled and highly unorthodox. He will be challenged.
Of course, Floyd is a magician in the ring. Few can figure out an opponent better than Floyd and then adjust his game plan. When Floyd lets his hands go, he can be dangerous as well. He also has quick hands, great footwork and may be the best defensive fighter of this or any other generation.
However, I believe Manny will test Floyd in ways that Money has never experienced. Manny won’t be afraid. He won’t be slower. He will be busier. He will hit harder. That’s a recipe for success. If Floyd wants to fight and beat Manny, he’ll need more than the sink, he’ll need the whole kitchen.
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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?
In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.
The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.
Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.
The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.
That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.
The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)
Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)
Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.
Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).
Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.
The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.
Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.
Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.
We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”
The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.
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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year
The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.
Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.
Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.
Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.
There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France, Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.
It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed, it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.
Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.
At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.
Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank
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Steven Navarro is the TSS 2024 Prospect of the Year
“I get ‘Bam’ vibes when I watch this kid,” said ESPN ringside commentator Tim Bradley during the opening round of Steven Navarro’s most recent match. Bradley was referencing WBC super flyweight champion Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez, a precociously brilliant technician whose name now appears on most pound-for-pound lists.
There are some common threads between Steven Navarro, the latest fighter to adopt the nickname “Kid Dynamite,” and Bam Rodriguez. Both are southpaws currently competing in the junior bantamweight division. But, of course, Bradley was alluding to something more when he made the comparison. And Navarro’s showing bore witness that Bradley was on to something.
It was the fifth pro fight for Navarro who was matched against a Puerto Rican with a 7-1 ledger. He ended the contest in the second frame, scoring three knockdowns, each the result of a different combination of punches, forcing the referee to stop it. It was the fourth win inside the distance for the 20-year-old phenom.
Isaias Estevan “Steven” Navarro turned pro after coming up short in last December’s U.S. Olympic Trials in Lafayette, Louisiana. The #1 seed in the 57 kg (featherweight) division, he was upset in the finals, losing a controversial split decision. Heading in, Navarro had won 13 national tournaments beginning at age 12.
A graduate of LA’s historic Fairfax High School, Steven made his pro debut this past April on a Matchroom Promotions card at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas and then inked a long-term deal with Top Rank. He comes from a boxing family. His father Refugio had 10 pro fights and three of Refugio’s cousins were boxers, most notably Jose Navarro who represented the USA at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and was a four-time world title challenger as a super flyweight. Jose was managed by Oscar De La Hoya for much of his pro career.
Nowadays, the line between a prospect and a rising contender has been blurred. Three years ago, in an effort to make matters less muddled, we operationally defined a prospect thusly: “A boxer with no more than a dozen fights, none yet of the 10-round variety.” To our way of thinking, a prospect by nature is still in the preliminary-bout phase of his career.
We may loosen these parameters in the future. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of talented female boxers who, like their Japanese male counterparts in the smallest weight classes, are often pushed into title fights when, from a historical perspective, they are just getting started.
But for the time being, we will adhere to our operational definition. And within the window that we have created, Steven Navarro stood out. In his first year as a pro, “Kid Dynamite” left us yearning to see more of him.
Honorable mention: Australian heavyweight Teremoana Junior (5-0, 5 KOs)
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