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PREDICTION PAGE: How Many PPV Buys Will #CottoCanelo Do?
TUESDAY UPDATE: TSS has been told that the Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto event did over one million buys on pay-per-view.
Good number, I asked one of the two people who said that the PPV hit over a million with a dog in the hunt?
“Very good,” I was told.
Now, this is not an exact science. Different folks will give you different numbers. The numbers sometimes get spun, but of course.
Projections and guesses, from ultra-insiders to “in the know” media, were all over the map, from 1.5 million, down to 500,000.
Being that the last Floyd Mayweather PPV, against Andre Berto, did 400,000 plus buys, well, I do think this fan reaction, if indeed projections play out to over 1 million buys, serves as good news to the crews involved, Golden Boy and Canelo.
Less certain is the reaction to that number from Roc Nation, Cotto’s promotional outfit. If they guaranteed Cotto $16 million, we’d have to hear from them on how they perceive this news…
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Strange time in boxing, as the exit, sorta exit, because his presence hangs over the sport, of Floyd Mayweather has left a vacuum. It needs to be filled…but Mayweather is a singular sort, a product of this age, where narcissism is now more so than ever revered, and obscene revenue collection is the same.
This weird aura is the context for tonight’s Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez clash. On surface, it would be something to get excited about. And more so than I might have thought, there are mixed feelings, among media, among fans, for #CaneloCotto.
We’ve gone over some reasons for that, and can add that MMA grabbed buzz–and I think proved there’s more of an overlap in fanbase between the two sports–in the last two weeks which probably usurped some from this super fight.
In my bubble, I see and hear almost more interest on how this fight is going to do, business-wise, than in how it will play out in the ring.
I chatted with some of my in-the-business buddies, to get a sense of that, because, well, you all seem quite curious about this facet of the event.
“I think this fight will do just under one million buys,” one industry big, with many decades under his belt, told me. I reminded him that the Mayweather-Berto thing did between 400-500,000 buys…
“I believe it does 650,000 but would not be shocked if it did 750-800,000…not would I be shocked if it only did 500,000.”
“Mr. X” said that there are seats to be bought at every price level, and “normally the gate reflects what the PPV will do.”
I reached out to Mr. Y, an expert on the PPV sphere. “I think it does about 750,000 buys,” our man said. He is usually right in the proverbial ballpark with his guesstimates…
Mr. X said competition is fierce for eyeballs, with NBA, NHL, college football and the holidays taking away from boxing buzz. It got me thinking…Is this PPV model dying? Would its death be bad for boxing? “No, it would be great for boxing fans,” X said. He noted that fans of all the “big” sports don’t ask the rooters to pony up extra to watch the good stuff. “All those sports have millions more fans than boxing does,” he said. “Boxing fans are getting tired of paying for pay-per-view. They say eff it, I will watch it for free next week.”
I don’t disagree; too often, we’re seeing fights being made as infomercials, as buildups to the grand finale, the PPV. The informercial fights aren’t pick ’ems, and fans want and deserve pick ems…
“I believe this model is dying,” X reiterated. He said as far as he knows, Cotto gets to keep the take from buys in Puerto Rico, so the event has to get like 1.2 million buys, or his promoter, Roc Nation, will be in dismal spirits. Cotto, he thinks, is guaranteed about $16 million for this fight, so lots of people have to buy this tangle for Roc to recoup. Maybe a better guarantee for Cotto would be between $6-8 million, X says. “Maybe it will be fight of the year and they get massive buys and I will be wrong…time will tell us within the next four days.”
And if you think a barn-burner and then a rematch would guarantee financial success, X pointed out that again, Cotto’s guarantee makes it hard for Roc to recoup. (Then again, we don’t know if they NEED to recoup. Maybe Jay Z is willing to be in the red for two, three, or more years, while he’s building towards an elevated place in the promotional sphere. And by the way, there is no shortage of chatter being directed at Jay for his lack of promoting. I asked someone at Roc about that. They think that chatter is hoo-hah, and the guy called the anti-Jay barbs “bush league.”)
“Oh, and Roc Nation has Rigo and Ward…neither is a big ticket seller, both are not PPV fighters…”
Bottom line, he sees high hurdles for Roc Nation, whose three big guns are charisma-challenged, not an easily forgivable sin in the social media age, where you have to rise above to cut through the chatter cluster.
I spoke to Mr. Z, a top tier dealmaker with no dog in the hunt. “I think this PPV does way less than expected,” Z said. “PPV is dead. Do you feel any heat on the East Coast? On social media?”
Hmm…point taken…but I have to assume there is much more in Latino pockets, yes?” True,” he conceded. We both agree that there is a real continuing blowback from #MayPac, as casuals felt burned by the overhype/under-deliver. Floyd’s next PPV tanked and then bigwigs expected Golovkin-Lemieux to do much better. Shall we blame Floyd? Well, when I do informal polling, talk to cabbies, and delivery guys and waiters, many of them told me they felt burned by #MayPac, and “never again!”
A West Coast deal-maker weighed in with a guess; Mr. WC said he thinks #CottoCanelo does between 450-500,000 buys, nothing close to the 1.5 million Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya talked about getting a week ago. Yesterday, Oscar told Andreas Hale that if #CottoCanelo ran before #MayPac, “This fight probably would have done the same as my fight with Mayweather with around 2.5 million buys.”
“750,000 would be a home run,” said WC, again with many decades in the biz under his belt. “I believe it’s going to be down for awhile,” WC said. “The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight really put a dent in it!”
We talked about if Al Haymon will steer away from the PPV model, or stick to it. “I think his hands are full with free TV,” WC stated. But I do think Haymon realizes that the PPV focus hampers long term growth, as it speaks to the rabid but small fan base. If he can be instrumental in making boxing less of an outlaw sport, so it enjoys the same revenue streams the “Big 4” sports enjoy, then there would be no need to stay glued to the structure which asks fans to pony up an extra $70 any time they want to watch the “best” matches.
Fans, drop your prediction about buy numbers in our Forum..and talk about reasons why this fight does better, or worse, than opiners are saying.
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Golden Boy in Riyadh Results: Zurdo Ramirez Unifies Cruiserweight Titles
Mexico’s Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez endured the grinding style of England’s Chris Billam-Smith to become the unified WBO and WBA cruiserweight champion by unanimous decision after a bruising battle in Saudi Arabia on Saturday.
“I’m a true champion,” said Ramirez.
Ramirez (47-1, 30 KOs) used angles and experience to out-maneuver the very strong Billam-Smith (20-2, 13 KOs) in Golden Boy Promotion’s first joint adventure with “Riyadh Season” in Riyadh, Saud Arabia.
Footwork by Ramirez seemed to surprise Billiam-Smith whose relentless approach could not corral the Mexican fighter who was fighting only for the second time at cruiserweight.
The former super middleweight champion used his experience and ability to create punching angles to optimum success against Billam-Smith. The movement confused the British fighter who never could find a solution.
“He has consistent shots,” said Billam-Smith. “I had trouble tracking him.”
But Billam-Smith used his relentless attacking style for all 12 rounds despite suffering a cut near his eye in the sixth round. He never quit and pounded away at Ramirez who simply out-punched the incredibly strong British cruiserweight.
No knockdowns were scored. Billam-Smith did have success in the 10th round but couldn’t overcome the overall success Ramirez had tallied with body shots and straight lefts throughout the contest.
“It meant a lot for me to try and stop him,” said Ramirez. “But he’s pretty tough.”
After 12 rounds of bruising action all three judges saw Ramirez the winner 116-112 twice and 116-113.
Barboza’s Quest
After 11 years Arnold Barboza (31-0, 11 KOs) finally got his wish and met former super lightweight champion Jose Ramirez (29-2, 18 KOs) in the boxing ring and handed him only his second defeat.
“It was a long time coming,” Barboza said.
Barboza started slowly against the pressure style of Ramirez but soon gathered enough information to determine his own attack. Accuracy with jabs and body shots opened things up for the Southern California fighter from El Monte.
Ramirez seemed to lose that fire in his legs and usually attacking style. Though he occasionally showed the old fire it was only in spurts. Barboza took advantage of the lulls and pierced the former champion’s guards with accurate jabs and quick body shots.
He was sharp.
After 10 rounds all three judges favored Barboza 96-94 twice and 97-93.
“This was my championship fight,” said the undefeated Barboza. “I respect everything about him (Ramirez) and his team.” Ramirez’s only previous loss came in a bout with Josh Taylor for the undisputed world title at 140 pounds.
Lightweight clash
William Zepeda (32-0, 27 KOs) survived a knockdown to out-punch former champion Tevin Farmer (33-7-1, 8 KOs) and walk away with a split decision victory in their lightweight confrontation.
“I knew it was going to be a tough fight,” said Zepeda. “He surprised me a little bit.”
Zepeda opened up with his usual flood of punches from every angle and soon found himself looking up from the floor after Farmer floored him with a perfect counter-left in the third round.
It took the Mexican fighter a few rounds to find a way to avoid Farmer’s counter lefts and then the deluge of blows resumed. Though Farmer continued to battle he couldn’t match the number of blows coming from Zepeda.
After 10 rounds one judge saw Farmer 95-94 but the two other judges saw Zepeda by 95-94 scores.
“I just brought it to him,” said Farmer who knew it was a close fight.
Puerto Rico’s New Unified Champ
In a battle between minimumweight world titlists Puerto Rico’s Oscar Collazo (11-0, 8 KOs) knocked out Thailand’s KO CP Freshmart (25-1, 9 KOs) to become the WBO and WBA champion.
Freshmart, also known as Thammanoon Niyomtrong, was the longest reigning champion in the 105-division weight class for a total of eight years. That was quickly ended as Collazo’s floored the strong Thai fighter three times during their clash of champions.
Body shots proved beneficial to Collazo as both exchanged blows to the abdomen but the Puerto Rican added flashy combinations to control the fight for six rounds.
“I saw him breathing hard,” said Collazo.
Possibly understanding he was falling behind, Freshmart began to advance more aggressively and forced exchanges with the fast Boricua. Bad idea.
During a furious exchange in the sixth Collazo connected with a counter right hook on the chin and down went Freshmart. He recovered and finished the round.
Collazo opened the seventh searching for an opening and immediately connected with another right hook during an exchange of blows with the Thai fighter. Down went Freshmart again but he got up to fight again. Collazo moved in cautiously again and this time fired a left uppercut that finished Freshmart at 1:29 if the seventh round.
“We got the stoppage,” said Collazo the unified WBO and WBA minimumweight champion.
Puerto Rico has another unified world champion in Collazo.
“I want all the belts,” Collazo said.
Duarte edges Akhmedov
Mexico’s Oscar Duarte (28-2-1, 22 KOs) scrapped past Botirzhon Akhmedov (10-4, 9 KOs) in a rugged super lightweight battle to win by unanimous decision. But it was a close one.
“He’s a great fighter, a warrior,” said Duarte of Akhmedov.
Akhmedov started faster using angles and bursts of punches as Duarte looked to counter. In the second half of the 10-round fight the extra energy expended by the fighter from Uzbekistan seemed to tire him. Mexico’s Duarte took advantage and looked stronger in the second half of the match.
All three judges saw Duarte the winner 98-92, 97-93, 96-94.
Welterweights
Saudi Arabia’s Ziyad Almaayouf (6-0-1) and Mexico’s Juan Garcia (5-6-1) fought to a majority draw after six rounds of action.
Photo credit: Cris Esqueda / Golden Boy
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Jake Paul Defeats Mike Tyson plus Other Results from Arlington, Texas
The power of Mike Tyson.
Tyson’s power was on display in the people he attracted from all over the world to fill up the 72,000-seat Texas stadium and to capture the interest of more than 160 million viewers on Netflix. But, not in the prize ring on Saturday.
Youth and Jake Paul (11-1, 7 KOs) were the winners after eight tepid rounds over legendary heavyweight champion Tyson (50-7, 44 KOs) who failed to beat the chains of time. But he did stir them a bit at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Paul moved in and out of danger against Tyson the former undisputed heavyweight champion whose name struck terror in the 80s and 90s. Though the social media influencer had a 31-year younger body, he could not take full advantage.
“I was afraid he was going to hurt me,” admitted Paul.
In the opening round Tyson stalked Paul like a hungry lion about to pounce on a piece of meat. The younger fighter used his legs and smart jabs to keep separation. It was a wise decision.
At times Paul would unleash quick combinations, but the experienced Tyson’s muscle memory kicked in and he easily avoided the blows. But from the third round on the legs seemed to lock up and every movement seemed a struggle.
Paul landed left hooks to the head but Tyson managed to avoid their full power. And when Tyson connected with a left uppercut in the fifth round Paul wagged his tongue to acknowledge it connected, but the power was not damaging.
The eight two-minute rounds were perfect for this fight.
When a 58-year-old body is forced to fight for its life with all the necessary tools such as agility, endurance and quickness, the mind can play tricks. But Tyson was resolute and kept advancing against Paul in every round.
In the seventh round the aged heavyweight rekindled a second wind and fired dangerous combinations for the first time since the second frame. His winning spirit blazed for a moment or two until Paul unleashed his own combination blows. The moment for miracles had passed.
The final round saw Paul use more jabs and a few combination punches. Tyson tried to fire back but was unable to get his legs to cooperate. Still, his bravado was intact and Paul marked the last 10 seconds by bowing down humbly in front of Tyson. Paul had survived the lion’s maw.
“He’s the greatest heavyweight to ever do it,” said Paul of Tyson. “He’s a really tough and experienced fighter.”
Tyson was almost silent after the fight.
“I knew he was a good fighter. I came prepared,” said Tyson.
Katie Taylor Wins Again
In an even more brutal fight than their first encounter, undisputed super lightweight champion Katie Taylor (24-1) again edged out Amanda Serrano (47-3-1) after 10 bloody rounds to win by unanimous decision.
It was Serrano who jumped on Taylor in the first round and ravaged the Irish fighter with rifling lefts that snapped her head back. There was no wasting time to get acquainted.
Taylor got her footing in the third round with her quick-handed flurries. Though Serrano landed too it was Taylor’s resilience that kept her from being over run by the Puerto Rican’s power blows.
In the third round however, Taylor rushed in with blows and then grabbed Serrano and butted her with her head. A bloody gash opened up on the side of the Puerto Rican’s right eye. The referee quickly acknowledged it was a butt that caused the bad cut.
In the next round the cut opened up even more and the referee and ringside physician asked if she wanted to continue. She acknowledged to continue though the fight could have been stopped and judged by the scores accumulated up to that point. Serrano probably would have won.
Serrano did not want to stop.
“I chose to be great,” Serrano said. “I’m a Boricua. I’ll die in the ring.”
For the remainder of the fight the two combatants battled furiously. It was even more savage than their first encounter in New York two years ago. The referee repeatedly warned Taylor for intentionally diving in with her head and took one point away in the eighth round. He could have deducted more but did not.
“Sometimes it’s tough in there,” explained Taylor.
Serrano’s right hooks and left crosses found their mark repeatedly. Taylor’s quick combinations and strafing rights blazed often. It was up to the judges after 10 rounds had expired. All three judges saw it in favor of Taylor 95-94.
Many in the crowd booed. Even the announcers seemed surprised.
“She’s a fantastic champion,” said Taylor of Serrano. “She’s a hard puncher and tough.”
Serrano seemed displeased by the decision, but happy for the success of the fight card.
WBC Welterweight Title Fight
The theme for the WBC welterweight title fight was only sissies block and slip punches as Mario Barrios (29-2-1, 18 KOs) the champion and challenger Abel Ramos (28-6-3, 22 KOs) slugged each other gruesome for 12 bloody rounds and a split decision.
Barrios retains the WBC title.
“I knew it was a close fight,” Barrios said. “He made it a war.”
The two Mexican-American warriors blasted each other with knockdowns but somehow continued to battle on.
Texas-born Barrios was defending his title for the first time and Arizona’s Ramos was finally invited to challenge for a world title. He accepted.
Barrios opened up with sharp jabs and rocked Ramos with a straight right. He almost went down. In the second round he was not as lucky and was floored with a perfect three-punch combination. Ramos smiled and resumed the fight.
After a few more one-sided rounds in favor of Barrios, who trains in Las Vegas with Bob Santos, the match seemed to be dominated by the welterweight champion. It was a false read.
Ramos opened the sixth round in a more aggressive attack and began hammering Barrios with right hands. A three-punch combination blasted the champion to the ground and forced him to take an eight-count. He barely survived the round as the crowd panted.
“He can crack,” said Barrios.
For the remainder of the match both fought back and forth with Barrios finding success with jabs and rights to the body. Ramos rocketed rights on the champion’s head and occasional left hooks but the right seemed lasered to Barrios head.
Both of their faces were swollen and bloodied by punches to the face and neither seemed willing to quit. After 12 rounds one judge saw Ramos the winner 114-112, another saw Barrios win 116-110, and a third judge saw it 113-113 for a split draw. Barrios retains the WBC title.
“It was a great fight for the crowd,” said Ramos with a smile. “Two warriors like us are going to give an action-packed performance.”
Indian Fighter Wins
Neeraj Goyat (19-4-2) of India defeated Brazil’s Whindersson Nunes (0-1) in a super middleweight fight after six rounds. No knockdowns were scored but Goyat was the busier and more skilled fighter.
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Avila Perspective, Chap. 304: Mike Tyson Returns; Latino Night in Riyadh
Iron Mike Tyson is back.
“I’m just ready to fight,” Tyson said.
Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) faces social media star-turned-fighter Jake Paul (10-1, 7 KOs) on Friday, Nov. 15, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Netflix will stream the Most Valuable Promotions card that includes female super stars Katie Taylor versus Amanda Serrano.
It’s a solid fight card.
The last time Tyson stepped in the prize ring was 19 years ago. Though he’s now 58 years old there’s a boxing adage that fits perfectly for this match: “it only takes one punch.”
Few heavyweights mastered the one-punch knockout like Tyson did during his reign of terror. If you look on social media you can find highlights of Tyson’s greatest knockouts. It’s the primary reason many people in the world today think he still fights regularly.
Real boxing pundits know otherwise.
But Tyson is not Evander Holyfield or Lennox Lewis, he’s facing 20-something-year-old Paul who has been boxing professionally for only five years.
“I’m not going to lose,” said Tyson.
Paul, 27, began performing in the prize ring as a lark. He demolished former basketball player Nate Robinson and gained traction by defeating MMA stars in boxing matches. His victories began to gain attention especially when he beat UFC stars Anderson Silva and Nate Diaz.
He’s become a phenom.
Every time Paul fights, he seems to improve. But can he beat Tyson?
“He says he’s going to kill me. I’m ready. I want that killer. I want the hardest match possible Friday night, and I want there to be no excuses from everyone at home when I knock him out,” said Paul who lured Tyson from retirement.
Was it a mistake?
The Tyson versus Paul match is part of a co-main event pitting the two best known female fighters Katie Taylor (23-1) and Amanda Serrano (47-2-1) back in the ring again. Their first encounter two years ago was Fight of the Year. Can they match or surpass that incredible fight?
“I’m going to do what I do best and come to fight,” said Serrano.
Taylor expects total war.
“I think what me and Amanda have done over these last few years, inspiring that generation of young fighters, is the best thing we could leave behind in this sport,” said Taylor.
Also, WBC welterweight titlist Mario Barrios (29-2, 18 KOs) defends against Arizona’s Abel Ramos (28-6-2, 22 KOs) and featherweight hotshot Bruce “Shu Shu” Carrington (13-0, 8 KOs) meets Dana Coolwell (13-2, 8 KOs). Several other bouts are planned.
Riyadh Season
WBA cruiserweight titlist Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez headlines a Golden Boy Promotions card called Riyadh Season’s Latino Night. It’s the first time the Los Angeles-based company has ventured to Saudi Arabia for a boxing card.
“Passion. That’s what this fight card is all about,” said Oscar De La Hoya, CEO of Golden Boy.
Mexico’s Ramirez (46-1, 30 KOs) meets England’s Chris Billam-Smith (20-1, 13 KOs) who holds the WBO title on Saturday Nov. 16, at The Venue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. DAZN will stream the Golden Boy card.
Ramirez surprised many when he defeated Arsen Goulamirian for the WBA title this past March in Inglewood, California. The tall southpaw from Mazatlan had also held the WBO super middleweight title for years and grew out of the division.
“I’m very excited for this Saturday. I’m ready for whatever he brings to the table,” said Ramirez. “I need to throw a lot of punches and win every round.”
Billam-Smith is slightly taller than Ramirez and has been fighting in the cruiserweight division his entire pro career. He’s not a world champion through luck and could provide a very spectacular show. The two titlists seem perfect for each other.
“It’s amazing to be headlining this night,” said Billam-Smith. “He will be eating humble pie on Saturday night.”
Other Interesting Bouts
A unification match between minimumweight champions WBO Oscar Collazo (10-0) and WBA titlist Thammanoon Niyomtrong could be a show stealer. Both are eager to prove that their 105-pound weight class should not be ignored.
“I wanted big fights and huge fights, what’s better than a unification match,” said Collazo at the press conference.
Niyomtrong, the WBA titlist from Thailand, has held the title since June 2016 and feels confident he will conquer.
“I want to prove who’s the best world champion at 105. Collazo is the WBO champion but we are more experienced,” said Niyomtrong.
A lightweight bout between a top contender from Mexico and former world champion from the USA is also earmarked for many boxing fans
Undefeated William “El Camaron” Zepeda meets Tevin Farmer whose style can provide problems for any fighter.
“There is so much talent on this card. It’s a complicated fight for me against an experienced foe,” said Zepeda.
Tevin Farmer, who formerly held the IBF super featherweight title now performs as a lightweight. He feels confident in his abilities.
“You can’t be a top dog unless you beat a top dog. Once I beat Zepeda what are they going to do?” said Farmer about Golden Boy.
In a non-world title fight, former world champion Jose Ramirez accepted the challenge from Arnold Barboza who had been chasing him for years.
“I’m ready for Saturday to prove I’m the best at this weight,” said Ramirez.
Arnold Barboza is rubbing his hands in anticipation.
“This fight has been important to me for a long time. Shout out to Jose Ramirez for taking this fight,” said Barboza.
Special note
The fight card begins at 8:57 a.m. Saturday on DAZN which can be seen for free by non-subscribers.
Fights to Watch (all times Pacific Time)
Fri. Netflix 5 p.m. Mike Tyson (50-6) vs Jake Paul (10-1); Katie Taylor (23-1) vs Amanda Serrano (47-2-1); Mario Barrios (29-2) vs Abel Ramos (28-6-2).
Sat. DAZN, 8:57 a.m. Gilberto Ramirez (46-1) vs Chris Billiam-Smith (20-1); Oscar Collazo (10-0) vs Thammanoon Niyomtrong (25-0); William Zepeda (31-0) vs Tevin Farmer (33-6-1); Jose Ramirez (29-1) vs Arnold Barboza (30-0).
Mike Tyson photo credit: Esther Lin
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