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PREDICTION PAGE: How Many PPV Buys Will #CottoCanelo Do?
TUESDAY UPDATE: TSS has been told that the Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto event did over one million buys on pay-per-view.
Good number, I asked one of the two people who said that the PPV hit over a million with a dog in the hunt?
“Very good,” I was told.
Now, this is not an exact science. Different folks will give you different numbers. The numbers sometimes get spun, but of course.
Projections and guesses, from ultra-insiders to “in the know” media, were all over the map, from 1.5 million, down to 500,000.
Being that the last Floyd Mayweather PPV, against Andre Berto, did 400,000 plus buys, well, I do think this fan reaction, if indeed projections play out to over 1 million buys, serves as good news to the crews involved, Golden Boy and Canelo.
Less certain is the reaction to that number from Roc Nation, Cotto’s promotional outfit. If they guaranteed Cotto $16 million, we’d have to hear from them on how they perceive this news…
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Strange time in boxing, as the exit, sorta exit, because his presence hangs over the sport, of Floyd Mayweather has left a vacuum. It needs to be filled…but Mayweather is a singular sort, a product of this age, where narcissism is now more so than ever revered, and obscene revenue collection is the same.
This weird aura is the context for tonight’s Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez clash. On surface, it would be something to get excited about. And more so than I might have thought, there are mixed feelings, among media, among fans, for #CaneloCotto.
We’ve gone over some reasons for that, and can add that MMA grabbed buzz–and I think proved there’s more of an overlap in fanbase between the two sports–in the last two weeks which probably usurped some from this super fight.
In my bubble, I see and hear almost more interest on how this fight is going to do, business-wise, than in how it will play out in the ring.
I chatted with some of my in-the-business buddies, to get a sense of that, because, well, you all seem quite curious about this facet of the event.
“I think this fight will do just under one million buys,” one industry big, with many decades under his belt, told me. I reminded him that the Mayweather-Berto thing did between 400-500,000 buys…
“I believe it does 650,000 but would not be shocked if it did 750-800,000…not would I be shocked if it only did 500,000.”
“Mr. X” said that there are seats to be bought at every price level, and “normally the gate reflects what the PPV will do.”
I reached out to Mr. Y, an expert on the PPV sphere. “I think it does about 750,000 buys,” our man said. He is usually right in the proverbial ballpark with his guesstimates…
Mr. X said competition is fierce for eyeballs, with NBA, NHL, college football and the holidays taking away from boxing buzz. It got me thinking…Is this PPV model dying? Would its death be bad for boxing? “No, it would be great for boxing fans,” X said. He noted that fans of all the “big” sports don’t ask the rooters to pony up extra to watch the good stuff. “All those sports have millions more fans than boxing does,” he said. “Boxing fans are getting tired of paying for pay-per-view. They say eff it, I will watch it for free next week.”
I don’t disagree; too often, we’re seeing fights being made as infomercials, as buildups to the grand finale, the PPV. The informercial fights aren’t pick ’ems, and fans want and deserve pick ems…
“I believe this model is dying,” X reiterated. He said as far as he knows, Cotto gets to keep the take from buys in Puerto Rico, so the event has to get like 1.2 million buys, or his promoter, Roc Nation, will be in dismal spirits. Cotto, he thinks, is guaranteed about $16 million for this fight, so lots of people have to buy this tangle for Roc to recoup. Maybe a better guarantee for Cotto would be between $6-8 million, X says. “Maybe it will be fight of the year and they get massive buys and I will be wrong…time will tell us within the next four days.”
And if you think a barn-burner and then a rematch would guarantee financial success, X pointed out that again, Cotto’s guarantee makes it hard for Roc to recoup. (Then again, we don’t know if they NEED to recoup. Maybe Jay Z is willing to be in the red for two, three, or more years, while he’s building towards an elevated place in the promotional sphere. And by the way, there is no shortage of chatter being directed at Jay for his lack of promoting. I asked someone at Roc about that. They think that chatter is hoo-hah, and the guy called the anti-Jay barbs “bush league.”)
“Oh, and Roc Nation has Rigo and Ward…neither is a big ticket seller, both are not PPV fighters…”
Bottom line, he sees high hurdles for Roc Nation, whose three big guns are charisma-challenged, not an easily forgivable sin in the social media age, where you have to rise above to cut through the chatter cluster.
I spoke to Mr. Z, a top tier dealmaker with no dog in the hunt. “I think this PPV does way less than expected,” Z said. “PPV is dead. Do you feel any heat on the East Coast? On social media?”
Hmm…point taken…but I have to assume there is much more in Latino pockets, yes?” True,” he conceded. We both agree that there is a real continuing blowback from #MayPac, as casuals felt burned by the overhype/under-deliver. Floyd’s next PPV tanked and then bigwigs expected Golovkin-Lemieux to do much better. Shall we blame Floyd? Well, when I do informal polling, talk to cabbies, and delivery guys and waiters, many of them told me they felt burned by #MayPac, and “never again!”
A West Coast deal-maker weighed in with a guess; Mr. WC said he thinks #CottoCanelo does between 450-500,000 buys, nothing close to the 1.5 million Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya talked about getting a week ago. Yesterday, Oscar told Andreas Hale that if #CottoCanelo ran before #MayPac, “This fight probably would have done the same as my fight with Mayweather with around 2.5 million buys.”
“750,000 would be a home run,” said WC, again with many decades in the biz under his belt. “I believe it’s going to be down for awhile,” WC said. “The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight really put a dent in it!”
We talked about if Al Haymon will steer away from the PPV model, or stick to it. “I think his hands are full with free TV,” WC stated. But I do think Haymon realizes that the PPV focus hampers long term growth, as it speaks to the rabid but small fan base. If he can be instrumental in making boxing less of an outlaw sport, so it enjoys the same revenue streams the “Big 4” sports enjoy, then there would be no need to stay glued to the structure which asks fans to pony up an extra $70 any time they want to watch the “best” matches.
Fans, drop your prediction about buy numbers in our Forum..and talk about reasons why this fight does better, or worse, than opiners are saying.
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L.A.’s Rudy Hernandez is the 2024 TSS Trainer of the Year
L.A.’s Rudy Hernandez is the 2024 TSS Trainer of the Year
If asked to name a prominent boxing trainer who operates out of a gym in Los Angeles, the name Freddie Roach would jump immediately to mind. Best known for his work with Manny Pacquaio, Roach has been named the Trainer of the Year by the Boxing Writers Association of America a record seven times.
A mere seven miles from Roach’s iconic Wild Card Gym is the gym that Rudy Hernandez now calls home. Situated in the Little Tokyo neighborhood in downtown Los Angeles, the L.A. Boxing Gym – a relatively new addition to the SoCal boxing landscape — is as nondescript as its name. From the outside, one would not guess that two reigning world champions, Junto Nakatani and Anthony Olascuaga, were forged there.
As Freddie Roach will be forever linked with Manny Pacquiao, so will Rudy Hernandez be linked with Nakatani. The Japanese boxer was only 15 years old when his parents packed him off to the United States to be tutored by Hernandez. With Hernandez in his corner, the lanky southpaw won titles at 112 and 115 and currently holds the WBO bantamweight (118) belt. In his last start, he knocked out his Thai opponent, a 77-fight veteran who had never been stopped, advancing his record to 29-0 (22 KOs).
Nakatani’s name now appears on several pound-for-pound lists. A match with Japanese superstar Naoya Inoue is brewing. When that match comes to fruition, it will be the grandest domestic showdown in Japanese boxing history.
“Junto Nakatani is the greatest fighter I’ve ever trained. It’s easy to work with him because even when he came to me at age 15, his focus was only on boxing. It was to be a champion one day and nothing interfered with that dream,” Hernandez told sports journalist Manouk Akopyan writing for Boxing Scene.
Akin to Nakatani, Rudy Hernandez built Anthony Olascuaga from scratch. The LA native was rucked out of obscurity in April of 2023 when Jonathan Gonzalez contracted pneumonia and was forced to withdraw from his date in Tokyo with lineal light flyweight champion Kenshiro Teraji. Olascuaga, with only five pro fights under his belt, filled the breach on 10 days’ notice and although he lost (TKO by 9), he earned kudos for his gritty performance against the man recognized as the best fighter in his weight class.
Two fights later, back in Tokyo, Olascuaga copped the WBO world flyweight title with a third-round stoppage of Riku Kano. His first defense came in October, again in Japan, and Olascuaga retained his belt with a first-round stoppage of the aforementioned Gonzalez. (This bout was originally ruled a no-contest as it ended after Gonzalez suffered a cut from an accidental clash of heads. But the referee ruled that Gonzalez was fit to continue before the Puerto Rican said “no mas,” alleging his vision was impaired, and the WBO upheld a protest from the Olascuaga camp and changed the result to a TKO. Regardless, Rudy Hernandez’s fighter would have kept his title.)
Hernandez, 62, is the brother of the late Genaro “Chicanito” Hernandez. A two-time world title-holder at 130 pounds who fought the likes of Azumah Nelson, Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather Jr., Chicanito passed away in 2011, a cancer victim at age 45.
Genaro “Chicanito” Hernandez was one of the most popular fighters in the Hispanic communities of Southern California. Rudy Hernandez, a late bloomer of sorts – at least in terms of public recognition — has kept his brother’s flame alive with own achievements. He is a worthy honoree for the 2024 Trainer of the Year.
Note: This is the first in our series of annual awards. The others will arrive sporadically over the next two weeks.
Photo credit: Steve Kim
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A Shocker in Tijuana: Bruno Surace KOs Jaime Munguia !!
It was a chilly night in Tijuana when Jaime Munguia entered the ring for his homecoming fight with Bruno Surace. The main event of a Zanfer/Top Rank co-promotion, Munguia vs. Surace was staged in the city’s 30,000-seat soccer stadium a stone’s throw from the U.S. border in the San Diego metroplex.
Surace, a Frenchman, brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but a quick glance at his record showed that he had scant chance of holding his own with the house fighter. Only four of Surace’s 25 wins had come by stoppage and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records. Munguia was making the first start in the city of his birth since February 2022. Surace had never fought outside Europe.
But hold the phone!
After losing every round heading into the sixth, Surace scored the Upset of the Year, ending the contest with a one-punch knockout.
It looked like a short and easy night for Munguia when he knocked Surace down with a left hook in the second stanza. From that point on, the Frenchman fought off his back foot, often with back to the ropes, throwing punches only in spurts. Munguia worked the body well and was seemingly on the way to wearing him down when he was struck by lightning in the form of an overhand right.
Down went Munguia, landing on his back. He struggled to get to his feet, but the referee waived it off a nano-second before reaching “10.” The official time was 2:36 of round six.
Munguia, who was 44-1 heading in with 35 KOs, was as high as a 35/1 favorite. In his only defeat, he had gone the distance with Canelo Alvarez. This was the biggest upset by a French fighter since Rene Jacquot outpointed Donald Curry in 1989 and Jacquot had the advantage of fighting in his homeland.
Co-Main
Mexico City’s Alan Picasso, ranked #1 by the WBC at 122 pounds, scored a third-round stoppage of last-minute sub Yehison Cuello in a scheduled 10-rounder contested at featherweight. Picaso (31-0-1, 17 KOs) is a solid technician. He ended the bout with a left to the rib cage, a punch that weaved around Cuello’s elbow and didn’t appear to be especially hard. The referee stopped his count at “nine” and waived the fight off.
A 29-year-old Colombian who reportedly had been training in Tijuana, the overmatched Cuello slumped to 13-3-1.
Other Bouts of Note
In a ho-hum affair, junior middleweight Jorge Garcia advanced to 32-4 (26) with a 10-round unanimous decision over Uzbekistan’s Kudratillo Abudukakhorov (20-4). The judges had it 97-92 and 99-90 twice. There were no knockdowns, but Garcia had a point deducted in round eight for low blows.
Garcia displayed none of the power that he showed in his most recent fight three months ago in Arizona and when he knocked out his German opponent in 46 seconds. Abudukakhorov, who has competed mostly as a welterweight, came in at 158 1/4 pounds and didn’t look in the best of shape. The Uzbek was purportedly 170-10 as an amateur (4-5 per boxrec).
Super bantamweight Sebastian Hernandez improved to 18-0 (17 KOs) with a seventh-round stoppage of Argentine import Sergio Martin (14-5). The end came at the 2:39 mark of round seven when Martin’s corner threw in the towel. Earlier in the round, Martin lost his mouthpiece and had a point deducted for holding.
Hernandez wasn’t all that impressive considering the high expectations born of his high knockout ratio, but appeared to have injured his right hand during the sixth round.
Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank
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Ringside in Ontario where Alexis Rocha and Raul Curiel Battled to a Spirited Draw
Ringside in Ontario where Alexis Rocha and Raul Curiel Battled to a Spirited Draw
ONTARIO, CA -Two SoCal welterweights battled to a majority draw and Ohio’s Charles Conwell wowed the crowd with precision and power in his victory.
In the main event Alexis Rocha sought to prove his loss a year ago was a fluke and Raul Curiel sought to prove he belongs with the contenders.
Both got their wish.
After 12 rounds of back-and-forth exchanges, Rocha (25-2-1, 16 KOs) and Curiel (15-0-1, 13 KOs) battled to a stalemate in front of more than 5,000 fans at Toyota Arena. No oner seemed surprised by the majority decision draw.
“We got one for the people It was a Rocha landed impressive blows while Curiel just could not seem to get the motor running.
Things turned around in seventh round.
During the first half of the fight, it looked like Rocha’s experience in big events would be too much for Curiel to handle. Rocha landed impressive blows while Curiel just could not seem to get the motor running.
Things turned around in seventh round.
Maybe trainer Freddie Roach’s words got to Curiel. The Mexican Olympian who now lives in the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, suddenly planted his feet and ripped off five- and six-punch combinations. It was do or die.
The change of tactics forced Rocha to make changes too especially after absorbing several ripping uppercuts from Curiel.
Back and forth the welterweights exchanged and neither fighter could take charge. And neither fighter was knocked down though each both connected with sweat-tossing blows.
The two fighters battled until the final seconds of the fight. After 12 blistering rounds, one judge saw Rocha the winner 116-112, while the two other judges scored it 114-114 for a majority draw.
“I respect this guy. It was 12 rounds of war,” said Santa Ana’s Rocha.
Curiel felt the same.
“I respect Rocha. He is a good southpaw,” Curiel repeated. “Let’s do it again.”
Battle of Undefeated Super Welterweights
Few knew what to expect with undefeated Charles Conwell (21-0, 16 KOs) facing undefeated Argentine Gerardo Vergara (20-1, 13 KOs). You never what to expect with Argentine fighters.
Conwell, a U.S. Olympian, showed why many consider him the best kept secret in boxing with a steady attack behind impressive defense. He needed it against Vergara, a very strong southpaw.
Vergara seemed a little puzzled by Conwell’s constant pressure. He might have expected a hit-and-run kind of fighter instead of a steamroller like the Ohio warrior.
Once the two fighters got heated up in the cold arena, the blows began to come more often and more powerfully. Conwell in particular stood right in front of the Argentine and bobbed and weaved through the South American fighter’s attack. And suddenly unleashed rocket rights and left hooks off Vergara’s chin.
Nothing happened expect blood from his nose for several rounds.
For six rounds Conwell blasted away at Vergara’s chin and jaw and nothing seemed to faze the Argentine. Then, Conwell targeted the body and suddenly things opened up. Vergara was caught trying to decide what to protect when a left hook jolted the Argentine. Suddenly Conwell erupted with a stream of left hooks and rights with almost everything connecting with power.
Referee Thomas Taylor jumped in to stop the fight at 2:51 of the seventh round. Conwell finally chopped down the Argentine tree for the knockout win. The fans gasped at the suddenness of the victory.
“We broke him down,” Conwell said.
It was impressive.
Other Bouts
Popular John “Scrappy” Ramirez (14-1, 9 KOs) started slowly against Texas left-hander Ephraim Bui (10-1, 8 KOs) but gained momentum behind accurate right uppercuts to swing the momentum and win a regional super flyweight title by unanimous decision after 10 rounds
Bui opened the fight behind some accurate lead lefts, but once Ramirez found the solution he took the fight inside and repeatedly jolted the taller Texas fighter with that blow.
Ramirez, who is based in Los Angeles, gained momentum and confidence and kept control with movements left and right that kept Bui unable to regain the advantage. No knockdowns were scored as all three judges scored the fight 97-93 for Ramirez.
A battle between former flyweight world champions saw Marlen Esparza (15-2, 1 KO) pull away after several early contentious rounds against Mexico’s Arely Mucino (32-5-2, 11 KOs). Left hooks staggered Esparza early in the fight.
Esparza always could take a punch and after figuring out what not to do, she began rolling up points behind pinpoint punching and pot shots. Soon, it was evident she could hit and move and took over the last three rounds of the fight.
Mucino never stopped attacking and was successful with long left hooks and shots to the body, but once Esparza began launching impressive pot shots, the Mexican fighter never could figure out a solution.
After 10 rounds two judges scored it 98-92 and a third judge saw it 97-93 all for Esparza.
Victor Morales (20-0-1, 10 KOs) won by technical knockout over Mexico’s Juan Guardado (16-3-1, 6 KOs) due to a bad cut above the right eye. It was a learning experience for Morales who hails from Washington.
Left hooks were the problem for Morales who could not avoid a left hook throughout the super featherweight fight. Guardado staggered Morales at least three times with counter left hooks. But Morales turned things around by controlling the last three rounds behind a jolting left jab that controlled the distance.
At one second of the eighth round, referee Ray Corona stopped the fight to allow the ringside physician to examine the swelling and cut. It was decided that the fight should stop. Morales was awarded the win by technical knockout.
A super bantamweight fight saw Jorge Chavez (13-0, 8 KOs) score two knockdowns on way to a unanimous decision over Uruguay’s Ruben Casero (12-4, 4 KOs) after eight rounds. Chavez fights out of Tijuana, Mexico.
Photo credit: Al Applerose
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