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PREDICTION PAGE: How Many PPV Buys Will #CottoCanelo Do?

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TUESDAY UPDATE: TSS has been told that the Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto event did over one million buys on pay-per-view.

Good number, I asked one of the two people who said that the PPV hit over a million with a dog in the hunt?

“Very good,” I was told.

Now, this is not an exact science. Different folks will give you different numbers. The numbers sometimes get spun, but of course.

Projections and guesses, from ultra-insiders to “in the know” media,  were all over the map, from 1.5 million, down to 500,000.

Being that the last Floyd Mayweather PPV, against Andre Berto, did 400,000 plus buys, well, I do think this fan reaction, if indeed projections play out to over 1 million buys,  serves as good news to the crews involved, Golden Boy and Canelo.

Less certain is the reaction to that number from Roc Nation, Cotto’s promotional outfit. If they guaranteed Cotto $16 million, we’d have to hear from them on how they perceive this news…

————————————————————————————————————————–

Strange time in boxing, as the exit, sorta exit, because his presence hangs over the sport, of Floyd Mayweather has left a vacuum. It needs to be filled…but Mayweather is a singular sort, a product of this age, where narcissism is now more so than ever revered, and obscene revenue collection is the same.

This weird aura is the context for tonight’s Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez clash. On surface, it would be something to get excited about. And more so than I might have thought, there are mixed feelings, among media, among fans, for #CaneloCotto.

We’ve gone over some reasons for that, and can add that MMA grabbed buzz–and I think proved there’s more of an overlap in fanbase between the two sports–in the last two weeks which probably usurped some from this super fight.

In my bubble, I see and hear almost more interest on how this fight is going to do, business-wise, than in how it will play out in the ring.

I chatted with some of my in-the-business buddies, to get a sense of that, because, well, you all seem quite curious about this facet of the event.

“I think this fight will do just under one million buys,” one industry big, with many decades under his belt, told me. I reminded him that the Mayweather-Berto thing did between 400-500,000 buys…

“I believe it does 650,000 but would not be shocked if it did 750-800,000…not would I be shocked if it only did 500,000.”

“Mr. X” said that there are seats to be bought at every price level, and “normally the gate reflects what the PPV will do.”

I reached out to Mr. Y, an expert on the PPV sphere. “I think it does about 750,000 buys,” our man said. He is usually right in the proverbial ballpark with his guesstimates…

Mr. X said competition is fierce for eyeballs, with NBA, NHL, college football and the holidays taking away from boxing buzz. It got me thinking…Is this PPV model dying? Would its death be bad for boxing? “No, it would be great for boxing fans,” X said. He noted that fans of all the “big” sports don’t ask the rooters to pony up extra to watch the good stuff. “All those sports have millions more fans than boxing does,” he said. “Boxing fans are getting tired of paying for pay-per-view. They say eff it, I will watch it for free next week.”

I don’t disagree; too often, we’re seeing fights being made as infomercials, as buildups to the grand finale, the PPV. The informercial fights aren’t pick ’ems, and fans want and deserve pick ems…

“I believe this model is dying,” X reiterated. He said as far as he knows, Cotto gets to keep the take from buys in Puerto Rico, so the event has to get like 1.2 million buys, or his promoter, Roc Nation, will be in dismal spirits. Cotto, he thinks, is guaranteed about $16 million for this fight, so lots of people have to buy this tangle for Roc to recoup. Maybe a better guarantee for Cotto would be between $6-8 million, X says. “Maybe it will be fight of the year and they get massive buys and I will be wrong…time will tell us within the next four days.”

And if you think a barn-burner and then a rematch would guarantee financial success, X pointed out that again, Cotto’s guarantee makes it hard for Roc to recoup. (Then again, we don’t know if they NEED to recoup. Maybe Jay Z is willing to be in the red for two, three, or more years, while he’s building towards an elevated place in the promotional sphere. And by the way, there is no shortage of chatter being directed at Jay for his lack of promoting. I asked someone at Roc about that. They think that chatter is hoo-hah, and the guy called the anti-Jay barbs “bush league.”)

“Oh, and Roc Nation has Rigo and Ward…neither is a big ticket seller, both are not PPV fighters…”

Bottom line, he sees high hurdles for Roc Nation, whose three big guns are charisma-challenged, not an easily forgivable sin in the social media age, where you have to rise above to cut through the chatter cluster.

I spoke to Mr. Z, a top tier dealmaker with no dog in the hunt. “I think this PPV does way less than expected,” Z said. “PPV is dead. Do you feel any heat on the East Coast? On social media?”

Hmm…point taken…but I have to assume there is much more in Latino pockets, yes?” True,” he conceded. We both agree that there is a real continuing blowback from #MayPac, as casuals felt burned by the overhype/under-deliver. Floyd’s next PPV tanked and then bigwigs expected Golovkin-Lemieux to do much better. Shall we blame Floyd? Well, when I do informal polling, talk to cabbies, and delivery guys and waiters, many of them told me they felt burned by #MayPac, and “never again!”

A West Coast deal-maker weighed in with a guess; Mr. WC said he thinks #CottoCanelo does between 450-500,000 buys, nothing close to the 1.5 million Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya talked about getting a week ago. Yesterday, Oscar told Andreas Hale that if #CottoCanelo ran before #MayPac, “This fight probably would have done the same as my fight with Mayweather with around 2.5 million buys.”

“750,000 would be a home run,” said WC, again with many decades in the biz under his belt. “I believe it’s going to be down for awhile,” WC said. “The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight really put a dent in it!”

We talked about if Al Haymon will steer away from the PPV model, or stick to it. “I think his hands are full with free TV,” WC stated. But I do think Haymon realizes that the PPV focus hampers long term growth, as it speaks to the rabid but small fan base. If he can be instrumental in making boxing less of an outlaw sport, so it enjoys the same revenue streams the “Big 4” sports enjoy, then there would be no need to stay glued to the structure which asks fans to pony up an extra $70 any time they want to watch the “best” matches.

Fans, drop your prediction about buy numbers in our Forum..and talk about reasons why this fight does better, or worse, than opiners are saying.

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Jorge Garcia is the TSS Fighter of the Month for April

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Jorge Garcia has a lot in common with Mexican countrymen Emanuel Navarrete and Rafael Espinoza. In common with those two, both reigning world title-holders, Garcia is big for his weight class and bubbled out of obscurity with a triumph forged as a heavy underdog in a match contested on American soil.

Garcia had his “coming of age party” on April 19 in the first boxing event at the new Frontwave Arena in Oceanside, California (roughly 35 miles north of San Diego), a 7,500-seat facility whose primary tenant is an indoor soccer team. It was a Golden Boy Promotions event and in the opposite corner was a Golden Boy fighter, Charles Conwell.

A former U.S. Olympian, Conwell was undefeated (21-0, 16 KOs) and had won three straight inside the distance since hooking up with Golden Boy whose PR department ballyhooed him as the most avoided fighter in the super welterweight division. At prominent betting sites, Conwell was as high as a 12/1 favorite.

The lanky Garcia was 32-4 (26 KOs) heading in, but it was easy to underestimate him as he had fought extensively in Tijuana where the boxing commission is notoriously docile and in his home state of Sinaloa. This would be only his second fight in the U.S. However, it was noteworthy in hindsight that three of his four losses were by split decision.

Garcia vs. Conwell was a robust affair. He and Conwell were credited with throwing 1451 punches combined. In terms of punches landed, there was little to choose between them but the CompuBox operator saw Garcia landing more power punches in eight of the 12 rounds. At the end, the verdict was split but there was no controversy.

An interested observer was Sebastian Fundora who was there to see his sister Gabriela defend her world flyweight titles. Sebastian owns two pieces of the 154-pound world title where the #1 contender per the WBO is Xander Zayas who keeps winning, but not with the verve of his earlier triumphs.

With his upset of Charles Conwell, Jorge Garcia has been bumped into the WBO’s #2 slot. Regardless of who he fights next, Garcia will earn the biggest payday of his career.

Honorable mention: Aaron McKenna

McKenna was favored to beat veteran campaigner Liam Smith in the co-feature to the Eubank-Benn battle this past Saturday in London, but he was stepping up in class against a former world title-holder who had competed against some of the top dogs in the middleweight division and who had famously stopped Chris Eubank Jr in the first of their two encounters. Moreover, the venue, Tottenham Hotspur, the third-largest soccer stadium in England, favored the 36-year-old Liverpudlian who was accustomed to a big fight atmosphere having fought Canelo Alvarez before 50,000-plus at Arlington Stadium in Texas.

McKenna, from the small town of Monaghan, Ireland, wasn’t overwhelmed by the occasion. With his dad Feargal in his corner and his fighting brother Stephen McKenna cheering him on from ringside, Aaron won a wide decision in his first 12-round fight, punctuating his victory by knocking Smith to his knees with a body punch in the 12th round. In fact, if he hadn’t had a point deducted for using his elbow, the Irishman would have pitched a shutout on one of the scorecards.

“There might not be a more impressive example of a fighter moving up in class,” wrote Tris Dixon of the 25-year-old “Silencer” who improved his ledger to 20-0 (10).

Photo credits: Garcia/Conwell photo compliments of Cris Esqueda/Golden Boy; McKenna-Smith provided by  Mark Robinson/Matchroom

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Chris Eubank Jr Outlasts Conor Benn at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

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Feudal bragging rights belong to Chris Eubank Jr. who out-lasted Conor Benn to
emerge victorious by unanimous decision in a non-title middleweight match held in
London on Saturday.

Fighting for their family heritage Eubank (35-3, 26 KOs) and Benn (23-1, 14 KOs)
continued the battle between families started 35 years ago by their fathers at Tottenham
Hotspur Stadium.

More than 65,000 fans attended.

Though Eubank Jr. had a weight and height advantage and a record of smashing his
way to victory via knockout, he had problems hurting the quicker and more agile Benn.
And though Benn had the advantage of moving up two weight divisions and forcing
Eubank to fight under a catch weight, the move did not weaken him much.

Instead, British fans and boxing fans across the world saw the two family rivals pummel
each other for all 12 rounds. Neither was able to gain separation.

Eubank looked physically bigger and used a ramming left jab to connect early in the
fight. Benn immediately showed off his speed advantage and surprised many with his
ability to absorb a big blow.Chris Eubank Jr Outlasts Conor Benn at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Benn scrambled around with his quickness and agility and scored often with bigcounters.

It took him a few rounds to stop overextending himself while delivering power shots.

In the third round Benn staggered Eubank with a left hook but was unable to follow up
against the dangerous middleweight who roared back with flurries of blows.

Eubank was methodic in his approach always moving forward, always using his weight
advantage via the shoulder to force Benn backward. The smaller Benn rocketed
overhand rights and was partly successful but not enough to force Eubank to retreat.
In the seventh round a right uppercut snapped Benn’s head violently but he was
undeterred from firing back. Benn’s chin stood firm despite Eubank’s vaunted power and
size advantage.

“I didn’t know he had that in him,” Eubank said.

Benn opened strong in the eighth round with furious blows. And though he connected
he was unable to seriously hurt Eubank. And despite being drained by the weight loss,
the middleweight fighter remained strong all 12 rounds.

There were surprises from both fighters.

Benn was effective targeting the body. Perhaps if he had worked the body earlier he
would have found a better result.

With only two rounds remaining Eubank snapped off a right uppercut again and followed
up with body shots. In the final stanza Eubank pressed forward and exchanged with the
smaller Benn until the final bell. He simply out-landed the fighter and impressed all three
judges who scored it 116-112 for Eubank.

Eubank admitted he expected a knockout win but was satisfied with the victory.
“I under-estimated him,” Eubank said.

Benn was upset by the loss but recognized the reasons.

“He worked harder toward the end,” said Benn.

McKenna Wins

In his first test in the elite level Aaron McKenna (20-0, 10 KOs) showed his ability to fight
inside or out in soundly defeating former world champion Liam Smith (33-5-1, 20 KOs)
by unanimous decision to win a regional WBA middleweight title.

Smith has made a career out of upsetting young upstarts but discovered the Irish fighter
more than capable of mixing it up with the veteran. It was a rough fight throughout the
12 rounds but McKenna showed off his abilities to fight as a southpaw or right-hander
with nary a hiccup.

McKenna had trained in Southern California early in his career and since that time he’s
accrued a variety of ways to fight. He was smooth and relentless in using his longer
arms and agility against Smith on the outside or in close.

In the 12 th round, McKenna landed a perfectly timed left hook to the ribs and down went
Smith. The former champion got up and attempted to knock out the tall
Irish fighter but could not.

All three judges scored in favor of McKenna 119-108, 117-109, 118-108.

Other Bouts
Anthony Yarde (27-3) defeated Lyndon Arthur (24-3) by unanimous decision after 12 rounds. in a light heavyweight match. It was the third time they met. Yarde won the last two fights.

Chris Billam-Smith (21-2) defeated Brandon Glanton (20-3) by decision. It was his first
fight since losing the WBO cruiserweight world title to Gilberto Ramirez last November.

Viddal Riley (13-0) out-worked Cheavon Clarke (10-2) in a 12-round back-and-forth-contest to win a unanimous decision.

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 323: Benn vs Eubank Family Feud and More

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Next generation rivals Conor Benn and Chris Eubank Jr. carry on the family legacy of feudal warring in the prize ring on Saturday.

This is huge in British boxing.

Eubank (34-3, 25 KOs) holds the fringe IBO middleweight title but won’t be defending it against the smaller welterweight Benn (23-0, 14 KOs) on Saturday, April 26, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. DAZN will stream the Matchroom Boxing card.

This is about family pride.

The parents of Eubank and Benn actually began the feud in the 1990s.

Papa Nigel Benn fought Papa Chris Eubank twice. Losing as a middleweight in November 1990 at Birmingham, England, then fighting to a draw as a super middleweight in October 1993 in Manchester. Both were world title fights.

Eubank was undefeated and won the WBO middleweight world title in 1990 against Nigel Benn by knockout. He defended it three times before moving up and winning the vacant WBO super middleweight title in September 1991. He defended the super middleweight title 14 times before suffering his first pro defeat in March 1995 against Steve Collins.

Benn won the WBO middleweight title in April 1990 against Doug DeWitt and defended it once before losing to Eubank in November 1990. He moved up in weight and took the WBC super middleweight title from Mauro Galvano in Italy by technical knockout in October 1992. He defended the title nine times until losing in March 1996. His last fight was in November 1996, a loss to Steve Collins.

Animosity between the two families continues this weekend in the boxing ring.

Conor Benn, the son of Nigel, has fought mostly as a welterweight but lately has participated in the super welterweight division. He is several inches shorter in height than Eubank but has power and speed. Kind of a British version of Gervonta “Tank” Davis.

“It’s always personal, every opponent I fight is personal. People want to say it’s strictly business, but it’s never business. If someone is trying to put their hands on me, trying to render me unconscious, it’s never business,” said Benn.

This fight was scheduled twice before and cut short twice due to failed PED tests by Benn. The weight limit agreed upon is 160 pounds.

Eubank, a natural middleweight, has exchanged taunts with Benn for years. He recently avenged a loss to Liam Smith with a knockout victory in September 2023.

“This fight isn’t about size or weight. It’s about skill. It’s about dedication. It’s about expertise and all those areas in which I excel in,” said Eubank. “I have many, many more years of experience over Conor Benn, and that will be the deciding factor of the night.”

Because this fight was postponed twice, the animosity between the two feuding fighters has increased the attention of their fans. Both fighters are anxious to flatten each other.

“He’s another opponent in my way trying to crush my dreams. trying to take food off my plate and trying to render me unconscious. That’s how I look at him,” said Benn.

Eubank smiles.

“Whether it’s boxing, whether it’s a gun fight. Defense, offense, foot movement, speed, power. I am the superior boxer in each of those departments and so many more – which is why I’m so confident,” he said.

Supporting Bout

Former world champion Liam Smith (33-4-1, 20 KOs) tangles with Ireland’s Aaron McKenna (19-0, 10 KOs) in a middleweight fight set for 12 rounds on the Benn-Eubank undercard in London.

“Beefy” Smith has long been known as one of the fighting Smith brothers and recently lost to Eubank a year and a half ago. It was only the second time in 38 bouts he had been stopped. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez did it several years ago.

McKenna is a familiar name in Southern California. The Irish fighter fought numerous times on Golden Boy Promotion cards between 2017 and 2019 before returning to the United Kingdom and his assault on continuing the middleweight division. This is a big step for the tall Irish fighter.

It’s youth versus experience.

“I’ve been calling for big fights like this for the last two or three years, and it’s a fight I’m really excited for. I plan to make the most of it and make a statement win on Saturday night,” said McKenna, one of two fighting brothers.

Monster in L.A.

Japan’s super star Naoya “Monster” Inoue arrived in Los Angeles for last day workouts before his Las Vegas showdown against Ramon Cardenas on Sunday May 4, at T-Mobile Arena. ESPN will televise and stream the Top Rank card.

It’s been four years since the super bantamweight world champion performed in the US and during that time Naoya (29-0, 26 KOs) gathered world titles in different weight divisions. The Japanese slugger has also gained fame as perhaps the best fighter on the planet. Cardenas is 26-1 with 14 KOs.

Pomona Fights

Super featherweights Mathias Radcliffe (9-0-1) and Ezequiel Flores (6-4) lead a boxing card called “DMG Night of Champions” on Saturday April 26, at the historic Fox Theater in downtown Pomona, Calif.

Michaela Bracamontes (11-2-1) and Jesus Torres Beltran (8-4-1) will be fighting for a regional WBC super featherweight title. More than eight bouts are scheduled.

Doors open at 6 p.m. For ticket information go to: www.tix.com/dmgnightofchampions

Fights to Watch

Sat. DAZN 9 a.m. Conor Benn (23-0) vs Chris Eubank Jr. (34-3); Liam Smith (33-4-1) vs Aaron McKenna (19-0).

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