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PREDICTION PAGE: How Many PPV Buys Will #CottoCanelo Do?
TUESDAY UPDATE: TSS has been told that the Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto event did over one million buys on pay-per-view.
Good number, I asked one of the two people who said that the PPV hit over a million with a dog in the hunt?
“Very good,” I was told.
Now, this is not an exact science. Different folks will give you different numbers. The numbers sometimes get spun, but of course.
Projections and guesses, from ultra-insiders to “in the know” media, were all over the map, from 1.5 million, down to 500,000.
Being that the last Floyd Mayweather PPV, against Andre Berto, did 400,000 plus buys, well, I do think this fan reaction, if indeed projections play out to over 1 million buys, serves as good news to the crews involved, Golden Boy and Canelo.
Less certain is the reaction to that number from Roc Nation, Cotto’s promotional outfit. If they guaranteed Cotto $16 million, we’d have to hear from them on how they perceive this news…
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Strange time in boxing, as the exit, sorta exit, because his presence hangs over the sport, of Floyd Mayweather has left a vacuum. It needs to be filled…but Mayweather is a singular sort, a product of this age, where narcissism is now more so than ever revered, and obscene revenue collection is the same.
This weird aura is the context for tonight’s Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez clash. On surface, it would be something to get excited about. And more so than I might have thought, there are mixed feelings, among media, among fans, for #CaneloCotto.
We’ve gone over some reasons for that, and can add that MMA grabbed buzz–and I think proved there’s more of an overlap in fanbase between the two sports–in the last two weeks which probably usurped some from this super fight.
In my bubble, I see and hear almost more interest on how this fight is going to do, business-wise, than in how it will play out in the ring.
I chatted with some of my in-the-business buddies, to get a sense of that, because, well, you all seem quite curious about this facet of the event.
“I think this fight will do just under one million buys,” one industry big, with many decades under his belt, told me. I reminded him that the Mayweather-Berto thing did between 400-500,000 buys…
“I believe it does 650,000 but would not be shocked if it did 750-800,000…not would I be shocked if it only did 500,000.”
“Mr. X” said that there are seats to be bought at every price level, and “normally the gate reflects what the PPV will do.”
I reached out to Mr. Y, an expert on the PPV sphere. “I think it does about 750,000 buys,” our man said. He is usually right in the proverbial ballpark with his guesstimates…
Mr. X said competition is fierce for eyeballs, with NBA, NHL, college football and the holidays taking away from boxing buzz. It got me thinking…Is this PPV model dying? Would its death be bad for boxing? “No, it would be great for boxing fans,” X said. He noted that fans of all the “big” sports don’t ask the rooters to pony up extra to watch the good stuff. “All those sports have millions more fans than boxing does,” he said. “Boxing fans are getting tired of paying for pay-per-view. They say eff it, I will watch it for free next week.”
I don’t disagree; too often, we’re seeing fights being made as infomercials, as buildups to the grand finale, the PPV. The informercial fights aren’t pick ’ems, and fans want and deserve pick ems…
“I believe this model is dying,” X reiterated. He said as far as he knows, Cotto gets to keep the take from buys in Puerto Rico, so the event has to get like 1.2 million buys, or his promoter, Roc Nation, will be in dismal spirits. Cotto, he thinks, is guaranteed about $16 million for this fight, so lots of people have to buy this tangle for Roc to recoup. Maybe a better guarantee for Cotto would be between $6-8 million, X says. “Maybe it will be fight of the year and they get massive buys and I will be wrong…time will tell us within the next four days.”
And if you think a barn-burner and then a rematch would guarantee financial success, X pointed out that again, Cotto’s guarantee makes it hard for Roc to recoup. (Then again, we don’t know if they NEED to recoup. Maybe Jay Z is willing to be in the red for two, three, or more years, while he’s building towards an elevated place in the promotional sphere. And by the way, there is no shortage of chatter being directed at Jay for his lack of promoting. I asked someone at Roc about that. They think that chatter is hoo-hah, and the guy called the anti-Jay barbs “bush league.”)
“Oh, and Roc Nation has Rigo and Ward…neither is a big ticket seller, both are not PPV fighters…”
Bottom line, he sees high hurdles for Roc Nation, whose three big guns are charisma-challenged, not an easily forgivable sin in the social media age, where you have to rise above to cut through the chatter cluster.
I spoke to Mr. Z, a top tier dealmaker with no dog in the hunt. “I think this PPV does way less than expected,” Z said. “PPV is dead. Do you feel any heat on the East Coast? On social media?”
Hmm…point taken…but I have to assume there is much more in Latino pockets, yes?” True,” he conceded. We both agree that there is a real continuing blowback from #MayPac, as casuals felt burned by the overhype/under-deliver. Floyd’s next PPV tanked and then bigwigs expected Golovkin-Lemieux to do much better. Shall we blame Floyd? Well, when I do informal polling, talk to cabbies, and delivery guys and waiters, many of them told me they felt burned by #MayPac, and “never again!”
A West Coast deal-maker weighed in with a guess; Mr. WC said he thinks #CottoCanelo does between 450-500,000 buys, nothing close to the 1.5 million Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya talked about getting a week ago. Yesterday, Oscar told Andreas Hale that if #CottoCanelo ran before #MayPac, “This fight probably would have done the same as my fight with Mayweather with around 2.5 million buys.”
“750,000 would be a home run,” said WC, again with many decades in the biz under his belt. “I believe it’s going to be down for awhile,” WC said. “The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight really put a dent in it!”
We talked about if Al Haymon will steer away from the PPV model, or stick to it. “I think his hands are full with free TV,” WC stated. But I do think Haymon realizes that the PPV focus hampers long term growth, as it speaks to the rabid but small fan base. If he can be instrumental in making boxing less of an outlaw sport, so it enjoys the same revenue streams the “Big 4” sports enjoy, then there would be no need to stay glued to the structure which asks fans to pony up an extra $70 any time they want to watch the “best” matches.
Fans, drop your prediction about buy numbers in our Forum..and talk about reasons why this fight does better, or worse, than opiners are saying.
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Najee Lopez Steps up in Class and Wins Impressively at Plant City
Garry Jonas’ ProBox series returned to its regular home in Plant City, Florida, tonight with a card topped by a 10-round light heavyweight match between fast-rising Najee Lopez and former world title challenger Lenin Castillo. This was considered a step-up fight for the 25-year-old Lopez, an Atlanta-born-fighter of Puerto Rican heritage. Although the 36-year-old Castillo had lost two of his last three heading in, he had gone the distance with Dimitry Bivol and Marcus Browne and been stopped only once (by Callum Smith).
Lopez landed the cleaner punches throughout. Although Castillo seemed unfazed during the first half of the fight, he returned to his corner at the end of round five exhibiting signs of a fractured jaw.
In the next round, Lopez cornered him against the ropes and knocked him through the ropes with a left-right combination. Referee Emil Lombardo could have stopped the fight right there, but he allowed the courageous Castillo to carry on for a bit longer, finally stopping the fight as Castillo’s corner and a Florida commissioner were signaling that it was over.
The official time was 2:36 of round six. Bigger fights await the talented Lopez who improved to 13-0 with his tenth win inside the distance. Castillo declined to 25-7-1.
Co-Feature
In a stinker of a heavyweight fight, Stanley Wright, a paunchy, 34-year-old North Carolina journeyman, scored a big upset with a 10-round unanimous decision over previously unbeaten Jeremiah Milton.
Wright carried 280 pounds, 100 pounds more than in his pro debut 11 years ago. Although he was undefeated (13-0, 11 KOs), he had never defeated an opponent with a winning record and his last four opponents were a miserable 19-48-2. Moreover, he took the fight on short notice.
What Wright had going for him was fast hands and, in the opening round, he put Milton on the canvas with a straight right hand. From that point, Milton fought tentatively and Wright, looking fatigued as early as the fourth round, fought only in spurts. It seemed doubtful that he could last the distance, but Milton, the subject of a 2021 profile in these pages, was wary of Wright’s power and unable to capitalize. “It’s almost as if Milton is afraid to win,” said ringside commentator Chris Algieri during the ninth stanza when the bout had devolved into a hugfest.
The judges had it 96-93 and 97-92 twice for the victorious Wright who boosted his record to 14-0 without improving his stature.
Also
In the TV opener, a 10-round contest in the junior middleweight division, Najee Lopez stablemate Darrelle Valsaint (12-0, 10 KOs) scored his career-best win with a second-round knockout of 35-year-old Dutch globetrotter Stephen Danyo (23-7-3).
A native Floridian of Haitian descent, the 22-year-old Valsaint was making his eighth start in Plant City. He rocked Danyo with a chopping right hand high on the temple and then, as Danyo slumped forward, applied the exclamation point, a short left uppercut. The official time was 2:17 of round two.
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Japanese Superstar Naoya Inoue is Headed to Vegas after KOing Ye Joon Kim
Japan’s magnificent Naoya Inoue, appearing in his twenty-fourth title fight, scored his 11th straight stoppage tonight while successfully defending his unified super bantamweight title, advancing his record to 29-0 (26 KOs) at the expense of Ye Joon Kim. The match at Tokyo’s Ariake Arena came to an end at the 2:25 mark of round four when U.S. referee Mark Nelson tolled “10” over the brave but overmatched Korean.
Kim, raised in a Seoul orphanage, had a few good moments, but the “Monster” found his rhythm in the third round, leaving Kim with a purplish welt under his left eye. In the next frame, he brought the match to a conclusion, staggering the Korean with a left and then finishing matters with an overhand right that put Kim on the seat of his pants, dazed and wincing in pain.
Kim, who brought a 21-2-2 record, took the fight on 10 days’ notice, replacing Australia’s Sam Goodman who suffered an eye injury in sparring that never healed properly, forcing him to withdraw twice.
Co-promoter Bob Arum, who was in the building, announced that Inoue’s next fight would happen in Las Vegas in the Spring. Speculation centers on Mexico City’s Alan Picasso (31-0-1, 17 KOs) who is ranked #1 by the WBC. However, there’s also speculation that the 31-year-old Inoue may move up to featherweight and seek to win a title in a fifth weight class, in which case a potential opponent is Brandon Figueroa should he defeat former Inoue foe Stephen Fulton next weekend. In “olden days,” this notion would have been dismissed as the Japanese superstar and Figueroa have different promoters, but the arrival of Turki Alalshikh, the sport’s Daddy Warbucks, has changed the dynamic. Tonight, Naoya Inoue made his first start as a brand ambassador for Riyadh Season.
Simmering on the backburner is a megafight with countryman Junto Nakatani, an easy fight to make as Arum has ties to both. However, the powers-that-be would prefer more “marination.”
Inoue has appeared twice in Las Vegas, scoring a seventh-round stoppage of Jason Moloney in October of 2020 at the MGM Bubble and a third-round stoppage of Michael Dasmarinas at the Virgin Hotels in June of 2021.
Semi-wind-up
In a 12-round bout for a regional welterweight title, Jin Sasaki improved to 19-1-1 (17) with a unanimous decision over Shoki Sakai (29-15-3). The scores were 118-110, 117-111, and 116-112.
Also
In a bout in which both contestants were on the canvas, Toshiki Shimomachi (20-1-3) edged out Misaki Hirano (11-2), winning a majority decision. A 28-year-old Osaka southpaw with a fan-friendly style, the lanky Shimomachi, unbeaten in his last 22 starts, competes as a super bantamweight. A match with Inoue may be in his future.
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Eric Priest Wins Handily on Thursday’s Golden Boy card at the Commerce Casino
Model turned fighter Eric Priest jabbed and jolted his way into the super middleweight rankings with a shutout decision win over veteran Tyler Howard on Thursday.
In his first main event Priest (15-0, 8 KOs) proved ready for contender status by defusing every attack Tennessee’s Howard (20-3, 11 KOs) could muster at Commerce Casino, the second fight in six days at the LA County venue.
All ticket monies collected on the Folden Boy Promotions card were contributed to the Los Angeles Fire Department Foundation as they battle wildfires sprouting all over Los Angeles County due to high winds.
Priest, 26, had never fought anyone near Howard’s caliber but used a ramrod jab to keep the veteran off-balance and unable to muster a forceful counter-attack. Round after round the Korean-American fighter pumped left jabs while circling his opposition.
Though hit with power shots, none seemed to faze Howard but his own blows were unable to put a dent in Priest. After 10 rounds of the same repetitive action all three judges scored the fight 100-90 for Priest who now wins a regional super middleweight title.
Priest also joins the top 15 rankings of the WBA organization.
In a fight between evenly matched middleweights, Jordan Panthen (11-0, 9 KOs) remained undefeated after 10 rounds versus DeAundre Pettus (12-4, 7 KOs). Though equally skilled, Panthen simply out-worked the South Caroliina fighter to win by unanimous decision. No knockdowns were scored.
Other Bouts
Grant Flores (8-0, 6 KOs) knocked out Costa Rica’s David Lobo Ramirez (17-4, 12 KOs) with two successive right uppercuts at 2:59 of the second round of the super welterweight fight.
Cayden Griffith (3-0, 3 KOs) used a left hook to the body to stop Mark Misiura at 1:43 of the second round in a super welterweight bout.
Jordan Fuentes (3-0) floored Brandon Badillo (0-3-1) in the third round and proceeded to win by decision after four rounds in a super bantamweight fight.
A super featherweight match saw Leonardo Sanchez (8-0) win by decision over Joseph Cruz Brown (10-12) after six rounds.
Photo credit: Cris Esqueda / Golden Boy
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