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PREDICTION PAGE: How Many PPV Buys Will #CottoCanelo Do?

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TUESDAY UPDATE: TSS has been told that the Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto event did over one million buys on pay-per-view.

Good number, I asked one of the two people who said that the PPV hit over a million with a dog in the hunt?

“Very good,” I was told.

Now, this is not an exact science. Different folks will give you different numbers. The numbers sometimes get spun, but of course.

Projections and guesses, from ultra-insiders to “in the know” media,  were all over the map, from 1.5 million, down to 500,000.

Being that the last Floyd Mayweather PPV, against Andre Berto, did 400,000 plus buys, well, I do think this fan reaction, if indeed projections play out to over 1 million buys,  serves as good news to the crews involved, Golden Boy and Canelo.

Less certain is the reaction to that number from Roc Nation, Cotto’s promotional outfit. If they guaranteed Cotto $16 million, we’d have to hear from them on how they perceive this news…

————————————————————————————————————————–

Strange time in boxing, as the exit, sorta exit, because his presence hangs over the sport, of Floyd Mayweather has left a vacuum. It needs to be filled…but Mayweather is a singular sort, a product of this age, where narcissism is now more so than ever revered, and obscene revenue collection is the same.

This weird aura is the context for tonight’s Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez clash. On surface, it would be something to get excited about. And more so than I might have thought, there are mixed feelings, among media, among fans, for #CaneloCotto.

We’ve gone over some reasons for that, and can add that MMA grabbed buzz–and I think proved there’s more of an overlap in fanbase between the two sports–in the last two weeks which probably usurped some from this super fight.

In my bubble, I see and hear almost more interest on how this fight is going to do, business-wise, than in how it will play out in the ring.

I chatted with some of my in-the-business buddies, to get a sense of that, because, well, you all seem quite curious about this facet of the event.

“I think this fight will do just under one million buys,” one industry big, with many decades under his belt, told me. I reminded him that the Mayweather-Berto thing did between 400-500,000 buys…

“I believe it does 650,000 but would not be shocked if it did 750-800,000…not would I be shocked if it only did 500,000.”

“Mr. X” said that there are seats to be bought at every price level, and “normally the gate reflects what the PPV will do.”

I reached out to Mr. Y, an expert on the PPV sphere. “I think it does about 750,000 buys,” our man said. He is usually right in the proverbial ballpark with his guesstimates…

Mr. X said competition is fierce for eyeballs, with NBA, NHL, college football and the holidays taking away from boxing buzz. It got me thinking…Is this PPV model dying? Would its death be bad for boxing? “No, it would be great for boxing fans,” X said. He noted that fans of all the “big” sports don’t ask the rooters to pony up extra to watch the good stuff. “All those sports have millions more fans than boxing does,” he said. “Boxing fans are getting tired of paying for pay-per-view. They say eff it, I will watch it for free next week.”

I don’t disagree; too often, we’re seeing fights being made as infomercials, as buildups to the grand finale, the PPV. The informercial fights aren’t pick ’ems, and fans want and deserve pick ems…

“I believe this model is dying,” X reiterated. He said as far as he knows, Cotto gets to keep the take from buys in Puerto Rico, so the event has to get like 1.2 million buys, or his promoter, Roc Nation, will be in dismal spirits. Cotto, he thinks, is guaranteed about $16 million for this fight, so lots of people have to buy this tangle for Roc to recoup. Maybe a better guarantee for Cotto would be between $6-8 million, X says. “Maybe it will be fight of the year and they get massive buys and I will be wrong…time will tell us within the next four days.”

And if you think a barn-burner and then a rematch would guarantee financial success, X pointed out that again, Cotto’s guarantee makes it hard for Roc to recoup. (Then again, we don’t know if they NEED to recoup. Maybe Jay Z is willing to be in the red for two, three, or more years, while he’s building towards an elevated place in the promotional sphere. And by the way, there is no shortage of chatter being directed at Jay for his lack of promoting. I asked someone at Roc about that. They think that chatter is hoo-hah, and the guy called the anti-Jay barbs “bush league.”)

“Oh, and Roc Nation has Rigo and Ward…neither is a big ticket seller, both are not PPV fighters…”

Bottom line, he sees high hurdles for Roc Nation, whose three big guns are charisma-challenged, not an easily forgivable sin in the social media age, where you have to rise above to cut through the chatter cluster.

I spoke to Mr. Z, a top tier dealmaker with no dog in the hunt. “I think this PPV does way less than expected,” Z said. “PPV is dead. Do you feel any heat on the East Coast? On social media?”

Hmm…point taken…but I have to assume there is much more in Latino pockets, yes?” True,” he conceded. We both agree that there is a real continuing blowback from #MayPac, as casuals felt burned by the overhype/under-deliver. Floyd’s next PPV tanked and then bigwigs expected Golovkin-Lemieux to do much better. Shall we blame Floyd? Well, when I do informal polling, talk to cabbies, and delivery guys and waiters, many of them told me they felt burned by #MayPac, and “never again!”

A West Coast deal-maker weighed in with a guess; Mr. WC said he thinks #CottoCanelo does between 450-500,000 buys, nothing close to the 1.5 million Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya talked about getting a week ago. Yesterday, Oscar told Andreas Hale that if #CottoCanelo ran before #MayPac, “This fight probably would have done the same as my fight with Mayweather with around 2.5 million buys.”

“750,000 would be a home run,” said WC, again with many decades in the biz under his belt. “I believe it’s going to be down for awhile,” WC said. “The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight really put a dent in it!”

We talked about if Al Haymon will steer away from the PPV model, or stick to it. “I think his hands are full with free TV,” WC stated. But I do think Haymon realizes that the PPV focus hampers long term growth, as it speaks to the rabid but small fan base. If he can be instrumental in making boxing less of an outlaw sport, so it enjoys the same revenue streams the “Big 4” sports enjoy, then there would be no need to stay glued to the structure which asks fans to pony up an extra $70 any time they want to watch the “best” matches.

Fans, drop your prediction about buy numbers in our Forum..and talk about reasons why this fight does better, or worse, than opiners are saying.

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 287: Boxing Wars on Tap in Philadelphia and Las Vegas

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Those boxing wars continue.

Rival promoters battle it out in America as Matchroom Boxing shows off its newest prize Jaron Ennis while Top Rank presents a world title fight in the middleweight division.

Take your pick. Both are scintillating.

Philadelphia’s Ennis (31-0, 28 KOs) makes his promotional debut for the British boxing promotion company and faces David Avanesyan (30-4, 18 KOs) for the IBF welterweight world title on Saturday June 13 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. DAZN will stream the Matchroom Boxing card.

It’s been a year since Ennis last fought and meanwhile he was bestowed the IBF title without throwing a punch. He earns it on Saturday.

“Having this time off isn’t going to affect me at all. I just want to get back in the ring,” said Ennis whose last fight was a knockout win over Roiman Villa back on July 8, 2023.

A promotional war ensued for the right to sign Ennis. Matchroom Boxing was the winner and they’re itching to showcase one of the most talked-about welterweights to come along since Sugar Ray Leonard.

Avanesyan was selected to replace original opponent Cody Crowley who was forced to withdraw for medical reasons. The Armenian fighter has upset a few in his career including Sugar Shane Mosley and England’s Josh Kelly a few years back.

He’s not shy.

“I think that this is a 50-50 fight. He’s younger, He’s strong, it’s a very good fight,” said Avanesyan who lives in the United Kingdom.

Ennis had no qualms about facing a veteran like Avanesyan.

“It’s a better fight than Cody Crowley but I’ll beat him up, break him down and get the knockout,” Ennis said.

For the past several years boxing experts have been crowing about the Philadelphia prizefighter’s immense talent. On Saturday in front of a hometown crowd he continues the journey toward stardom.

Also, on the same card female WBC featherweight titlist Skye Nicolson (10-0) defends against Dominican stalwart Dyana Vargas (19-1). The Aussie southpaw makes her first real world title defense.

Las Vegas

IBF and WBO middleweight titlist Zhanibek Alimkhanuly (15-0, 10 KOs) defends against Andrei Mikhailovich (21-0, 13 KOs) on Saturday July 13, at the Palms Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. ESPN+ will stream the Top Rank boxing card.

Its Kazakhstan versus Russia as Alimkhanuly continues the middleweight tradition established by his countryman Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. Can he continue to dominate?

Alimkhanuly, 31, is a southpaw slugger and still learning how to corral a moving target. But he has power and shouldn’t have a problem finding Mikhailovich who packs power too.

Mikhailovich, 26, fights out of New Zealand but has never had a professional fight outside of the island nation. Will he be able to ignore the glitter of Las Vegas?

Also, Southern California’s Ray Muratalla (20-0, 16 KOs) faces former super featherweight champion Tevin Farmer (33-5-1, 8 KOs) in a lightweight clash set for 10 rounds.

It’s another step-up fight for Muratalla who had a four-fight knockout streak snapped in his last fight against South Africa’s Xolisani Ndongeni this past March. It won’t get any easier against speedy Farmer.

Golden Boy and 360 Promotions

Tickets are available for the super welterweight showdown between Vergil Ortiz and Serhii Bohachuk that takes place on Saturday, Aug. 10, at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas.

A press conference was held today at the Golden Boy headquarters in downtown Los Angeles. Both fighters were present to kick off the promotion that will feature the two fighters with almost 100 percent knockout rate.

Ortiz has won every fight by knockout. Bohachuk’s last fight ended in a win and was the first time he didn’t obtain a victory by knockout. But the Ukrainian fighter did pick up the interim WBC title with the win over Brian Mendoza who previously had knocked out current champion Sebastian Fundora.

Both Bohachuk and Ortiz train in Southern California.

Fights to Watch

Thurs. ESPN+ 11 a.m. Nelson Hysa (17-0) vs Thorsten Fuchs (13-1).

Sat. DAZN 5 p.m. Jaron Ennis (31-0) vs David Avanesyan (30-4-1); Skye Nicolson (10-0) vs Dyana Vargas (19-1).

Sat. ESPN+ 8 p.m. Zhanibek Alimkhanuly (15-0) vs Andrei Mikhailovich (21-0); Ray Muratalla (20-0) vs Tevin Farmer (33-5-1).

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Trevor McCumby Fell Off the Map and Now He’s Back with a Big Fight on the Horizon

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Trevor McCumby Fell Off the Map and Now He’s Back with a Big Fight on the Horizon

There’s a church in Arizona that has its own motto: “A church that cares where you’re going and not where you’ve been.” It’s the catchline of The Rock, a non-denominational Christian church in the Phoenix suburb of Peoria.

That phrase undoubtedly resonates with Trevor McCumby, a member of the congregation. “I’ve been to some dark places,” says McCumby who was working at a 7-11-style convenience store a few years ago and now finds himself on the cusp of some big paydays in the sweet science.

If McCumby’s name rings a bell, it likely relates to something that had its genesis on Nov. 26, 2016, when he knocked out Donovan George in the opening round on a card in Las Vegas.

The result was changed to “no contest” when traces of two banned substances were discovered in McCumby’s pre-fight urine specimen. Also, McCumby acknowledged receiving an intravenous infusion to rehydrate after the weigh-in which was against the rules of the Nevada State Athletic Commission.

It wasn’t until July of the following year when McCumby learned his fate. The boxing commission suspended him for 18 months, retroactive to Nov. 26, 2016, and fined him $3,750.

He maintains that he never knowingly took a PED. He pointed the blame at a multi-vitamin supplement allegedly contaminated with anabolic agents. (Trevor’s advice to his fellow boxers: If using a supplement, save the receipt and keep the empty container; it may come in useful someday.)

McCumby quit boxing at this juncture but returned in 2018 and recorded two more wins, pushing his record to 25-0 with 17 knockouts. Eleven of those kayos came in the opening round and that doesn’t include his demolition of Donovan George which effectively never happened.

And then, Trevor McCumby fell off the map. Four-and-a-half years would elapse before he returned to the ring, his comeback stalled by a knee injury suffered in sparring.

A light heavyweight during his run to 25-0, he returned as a super middleweight. Two wins in Phoenix prefaced his ProBox debut on Jan. 31 of this year when he won a lopsided 10-round decision over 17-3-1 Christopher Pearson. Up next is former IBF world super middleweight champion Caleb Plant who has been in with the top dogs in the division. It’s not official yet, but it’s an open secret that McCumby and Plant have agreed to touch gloves on August 17, likely in Florida.

Trevor McCumby, now 31 years old, was introduced to boxing by his father, a police officer in Niles, Illinois, and former Marine who once served as a presidential honor guard. The minimum age for an amateur boxer in Illinois was eight, but the elder McCumby lied about his son’s age and Trevor started competing with oversized gloves at the age of seven. (Trevor McCumby and his dad are pictured in a story about amateur boxing in the Windy City that ran in the Chicago Tribune in April of 1999. At the time, little Trevor would have been six years old.)

The McCumbys then lived in Yorkville, Illinois, a town roughly 50 miles southwest of Chicago. Trevor recalls traveling almost every day after school to the gritty south side of Chicago for training. Sweating side-by-side with inner city kids couldn’t help but speed up his development. He had a fine amateur record (127-11 by his count) and, at age 17, with the Olympics yet two years away, was ready to say “yes” when he got a surprise call from Cameron Dunkin who wanted to manage him. Renowned for his keen eye as a talent scout, the late Mr. Dunkin had one of the foremost stables in boxing.

McCumby was then living in Phoenix. He would finish high school in Las Vegas before making his pro debut in Los Angeles at age 18.

Looking back, Trevor says, “I didn’t take boxing as seriously as I should have. After each win, it was time to go out and party.” His hiatus from boxing was sobering on many levels. Working in a convenience store was humbling and his priorities changed when he met Kenzie (short for McKenzie), a member of the worship committee at The Rock and his future wife. Trevor is now the father of a 3-year-old son, a 1 ½-year-old daughter and there’s another girl on the way, due in November. As for the knee injury, a torn ACL, Trevor says, “it took about a whole year of rehab but feels better now than it ever did.”

McCumby opened his camp for the Plant fight during the week of July 4 at the Top Rank Gym in Las Vegas. His training is being coordinated by Brandon Woods, a protégé of Hall of Fame trainer Kenny Adams.

He and Caleb Plant have a common opponent in a manner of speaking. Plant went 12 rounds with David Benavidez in his last outing, losing a unanimous but relatively close decision. The “strength of schedule factor” in Plant’s favor will weigh heavily in setting the odds for McCumby vs. Plant. But McCumby has also shared the ring with Phoenix-native Benavidez, and on many occasions. “We gave each other great work,” he says. “You could have sold tickets to those sparring sessions.”

There was a time when it seemed that Trevor McCumby would be remembered mostly for putting his hand in the cookie jar and failing to maximize his talent. But hold the phone. His boxing journey is far from finished and this is a story that may ultimately prove uplifting.

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Fernando Martinez Ratches Up the Heat in the Hot Super Flyweight Division

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On Sunday in Tokyo, Fernando Martinez picked up a second piece of the world super flyweight title with a mild upset of Kazuto Ioka. Martinez owned the IBF belt and added Ioka’s WBA scalp to his bedpost. That gives the Argentinian globetrotter one more belt than Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez if you are keeping score.

Of course, there isn’t a little man on this planet who would be favored over “Bam” at the moment, excepting Naoya Inoue who competes two divisions up at 122. The San Antonio southpaw was so impressive in dismantling Juan Francisco Estrada on July 29 that he stifled all talk of whether he belongs on the pound-for-pound list. The debate now is about his placement; how high should it be? But despite Bam’s towering presence in the 115-pound division, there are some good fights out there for him beginning with Martinez.

Kazuto Ioka brought quite a resume. The first fighter from Japan to win world titles in four weight divisions, he was 31-2-1 heading in with both losses by split decision and was appearing in his twenty-fifth world title fight. But Martinez showed no fear of him. He took the fight to Ioka and closed strong, winning by scores of 120-108, 117-111, and 116-112. (The 120-108 tally by California judge Edward Hernandez Sr was assailed as ludicrous; the fight was much closer than that…but there was no disputing the verdict, the right guy won.)

A fight with Bam Rodriguez, who was in attendance, would be the most lucrative for Fernando Martinez, but he has other options. WBO belt-holder Kosei Tanaka is out there as is former pound-for-pound king Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez. Both are in action this month. Chocolatito (51-4, 41 KOs) fights this coming Friday on his home turf in Managua against Colombian journeyman Rober Barrera (27-5). Tanaka (20-1, 11 KOs) defends his belt on July 20 in Tokyo against Mexico’s Jonathan Rodriguez (25-2-1). Tanaka has won four straight since getting dominated and stopped by Ioka in 2020.

The outcome of the Ioka-Martinez bout was no surprise to Matt McGrain who previewed the contest in these pages. And, as McGain noted, Martinez doesn’t have much time left to build up his fan base outside South America and the Orient. His current record (17-0, 9 KOs) betrays the fact he turns 33 next week.

The smaller weight divisions have never attracted a large following in the United States, but that has something to do with a historical dearth of American-born fighters at the pinnacles. Bam Rodriguez is making even casual fans stand up and take notice and his ascent comes at a time when his division is percolating.

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