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Book Review: Brian Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve”

Book Review – Boxing fans know Brian Kenny from his work on ESPN2 Friday Night Fights, Showtime Championship Boxing, and PBC Boxing on FOX. But his #1 area of sports expertise is baseball.
Kenny is an MLB Network host and anchors some of its most important studio programming: MLB Now and MLB Tonight. He’s also an ardent proponent of sabermetrics: the use of cutting-edge statistical analysis as a key component of decision-making in virtually every aspect of the game.
Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution (Simon & Schuster) is Kenny’s presentation in support of sabermetrics. “Somewhere along the line,” he writes, “we stopped thinking. In the most basic ways, a purposeful ignorance set in. We have received considerable baseball wisdom from the early days of childhood from our adult role models, our peers, the media, and the baseball industry itself. What is so fascinating is that all this nonsense survived. For nearly a century, no one even bothered to think about it deeply enough to give themselves an incredible competitive advantage. At a certain point – about the time we discovered penicillin – it was time to evolve past these 19th-century relics. Instead, our thinking calcified and then endured decades beyond its point of usefulness.”
Book Review: Brian Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve”
With that as his starting point, Kenny challenges long held assumptions regarding baseball strategy.
He begins with the sacrifice bunt, studying how a simple scenario has played out over an 18-year study period.
Man on first base, nobody out. Your team needs a run. Sacrifice bunt, right?
That what most managers do. But look at the numbers.
With a man on first base and nobody out, a team can be expected to score .94 runs in that inning. With a man on second base and one out, a team can be expected to score .72 runs.
“So let’s be clear,” Kenny writes. “Even with a successful bunt, you score fewer runs.”
But by bunting successfully, the manager has taken himself out of the line of fire and absolved himself of blame.
“He put the next two batters in the spotlight,” Kenny continues. “There’s a man on second waiting to be driven in. When he doesn’t score, it’s those two hitters that didn’t get it done. Failure is there visually in the hitter slinking off the field, having left a man on base. The manager walks off scot-free, even though he is the one who traded three chances for two.”
Then there’s the matter of third-base coaches, who are reluctant to send a runner home on a fly ball to the outfield that’s caught for the second out of an inning. The current success rate for attempts to score from third base in sacrifice fly situations is 90%. In other words, the coach only instructs the runner to go for it when the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor.
But if the fly ball is the second out of the inning, the runner’s chance of being driven in by the next or a succeeding batter is roughly 30%. Thus, Kenny writes, “Third base coaches send runners only when it’s obvious they will score. Getting a runner thrown out at the plate looks bad for both the third base coach and runner. But taking more risks will lead to more runs even with more runners being thrown out.”
The manner in which today’s managers deploy their pitching staff also mystifies Kenny. He starts by asking, “Why do all major league teams pitch the way they do?” And he arrives at the answer, “Because that’s the way we always have done it.”
But times change. In 1904, pitchers finished 88% of the games they started. In 2014, that number was down to 2%. “The only reason we still have starters,” Kenny writes, “is because, once upon a time, one pitcher was all you used for the whole day.”
Kenny advocates starting games, not just with long-inning pitchers but with short-inning hurlers as well. And he heaps scorn on the way managers use their closers.
“Today’s relief aces,” he writes, “are treated like rare exotic flowers to be taken out only in certain conditions. They work the ninth inning only, preferably with nobody on base, and they top out at seventy innings for the season. Take a step back. You’ve established one pitcher as the best on your staff, batter for batter. You then artificially restrict his innings [and] keep him from the most important parts of the game.”
But isn’t the ninth inning the most important part of the game?
“Any manager who is saving his closer/relief ace/fireman/stud for the ninth inning,” Kenny notes, “is thinking the following: ‘I’m saving him to seal this win when the game is most on the line.’ And this is simply not the case. The game is frequently on the line in the ninth. But the act of saving your best pitcher for a situation that may not come (a one-run lead in the ninth) is not worth the exchange. A 4-1 lead with the bases loaded in the fifth? Run the numbers! You think there will be a bigger threat? The ninth-inning closer model has bolstered the myth that the game is on the line only in that final inning. It certainly is more obviously on the line at that point. But the fact is, most games are decided before then.”
The nerve center for decision-making during a baseball game is the manager who, Kenny declares, typically stands on the top step of the dugout “like Washington crossing the Delaware.” He then notes that 83% of the MLB managers who started the 2015 season had played previously in the major leagues. By contrast, only 19% of NFL head coaches and 50% of NBA head coaches had similar playing experience. That leads Kenny to ask the rhetorical question: “Do you think Major League Baseball requires some different level of understanding of its sport that the NBA and NFL don’t?”
Then comes more sacrilege. Kenny states, “If you told me I would be an NFL head coach tomorrow – taking over on a Monday in the middle of the season – it would be a disaster. Same thing if you gave me an NBA team. Now tell me I’m managing the Cincinnati Reds tomorrow. You know what? I’d be fine. Understand the distinction. I’m not saying I could coach. I couldn’t teach a cutter or even a good curve ball. I couldn’t teach a hitter proper mechanics. But coaching isn’t managing. The Reds would go along for days before you even knew I was there. It’s not that hard.”
He’s probably right. A case study proves his point.
Game 5 of the 2015 World Series. The Kansas City Royals are leading the New York Mets three games to one. Mets ace Matt Harvey has thrown eight scoreless innings, giving his team a 2-to-0 lead. Mets manager Terry Collins tells Harvey he’s done for the night. Harvey pleads to take the mound for the ninth inning. The crowd is chanting his name. Collins relents and sends Harvey to the mound to finish the game.
“So what’s wrong with a manager letting his stud pitcher take the mound for three more outs?” Kenny asks.
Then he answers.
“Here’s what’s wrong: a mountain of evidence that pointed to Harvey fatiguing late in games. Harvey has a fairly clear fatigue point: 100 pitches. To that point in his career, in pitches 1-100, major league hitters hit an anemic .206 against Harvey. After Harvey reached 100 pitches, they hit a robust .373 with a Hall-of-Fame level .440 on-base percentage. Harvey, after eight innings against Kansas City, was at 102 pitches.”
In the ninth inning, Harvey – predictably, to the sabermetrician’s way of thinking – blew up. The Mets lost the game and, with it, the World Series.
“The mainstream media almost universally defended Collins for going with his heart,” Kenny writes. “Nowhere that I can recall did anyone wonder where brains fit into this equation.”
That leads to Kenny’s next target: the media.
“It is a sportswriter’s job.” he states, “to help bring the game to a mass audience, to help the interested reader or listener understand the latest strategic innovations, explain the nuances, and keep them abreast of the ongoing revolution. During the sabermetric revolution, the sportswriting fraternity failed miserably.”
And there are choice words for the self-important writers who are responsible for inducting players into baseball’s Hall of Fame: “How hard is it to figure out that Bob Feller and Mickey Mantle are Hall of Famers? Most of the players voted into the hall by the writers would also have been voted in by a panel of fourth-grade baseball fans. The hard part for the baseball writers is at the border. This is where they continue to fail.”
Kenny extols Babe Ruth as the greatest hitter of all-time. And he sets forth an intriguing theory (first advanced by Bill James) as to what enabled The Bambino to turn baseball upside down: “It happened only because he was a pitcher. No one much cared if he swung from the heels. His hitting was superfluous. The baseball culture therefore didn’t pressure him into conforming. Ruth had the good fortune to break the single-season home run record while still a pitcher. By the time he was ready to convert to an outfielder, it was too late to stop him. He had already shown that swinging for the fences was a worthwhile risk.”
Basic record-keeping also comes under Kenny’s withering eye. He denounces what he calls ”the tyranny of the batting average,” noting, “In batting average, a single is as good as a home run and walks don’t exist. Yet the very first stat cited in most baseball conversations for 120 years was the batting average.”
He savages what he believes is an idiotic overemphasis on a pitcher’s won-lost record, beginning with the question, “Do you care that Mariano Rivera, from 2001 to 2012, had an average [won-lost] record of 4-3?”
Then Kenny adds, “I’m sorry if I’m the one to break this to you, but the same goes for all pitchers.” And he backs up his opinion with data showing that, between 1920 and 2014 (a 94-year data base), pitchers who threw eight innings in a game and gave up two earned runs were credited with a “win” only 33.6% of the time.
Further analyzing his data, Kenny calls Ted Williams the second best hitter of all-time, behind only Babe Ruth. Examining The Splendid Splinter’s 1941 season (.406 batting average, .553 on-base percentage, and .735 slugging percentage), he writes, “Williams’s numbers can barely be fathomed. Our minds aren’t trained to see .553 as an on-base percentage. It’s too high. No one does that past high school.”
Kenny also notes that, while Joe DiMaggio set a major league record that still stands by hitting safely in 56 consecutive games, Williams owns three of the four longest streaks for getting on base in consecutive games, including a streak of 84 consecutive games in 1949. “In baseball,” Kenny writes, “0-for-0 with three walks is likely better than 1-for-5 with a single.”
Sabermetrics can be a daunting subject for those who grew up in a simpler time when batting average, RBIs, HRs, wins, losses, and ERA reigned. Old eyes tend to glaze over when faced with OPS, OPS+, WAR, DRS, and FIP. But Kenny ties snippets of data together in enlightening and entertaining ways and brings statistics to life with a non-stop parade of informative and entertaining anecdotes
There’s a tip of the hat to Bill James, the patron saint of sabermetrics, who Kenny calls one of “the seven most influential figures in the history of baseball” along with the likes of Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson, and Marvin Miller. Speaking first and foremost about James, Kenny writes, “The best thing about the sabermetric revolution is that the pioneers of the movement weren’t looking to run teams. They were fans of the game who loved baseball and proved that we can see much more when we take a wider view.”
Kenny also hails Billy Beane (who pioneered sabermetrics with the Oakland Athletics) and Theo Epstein, (who refined the art, first with the Boston Red Sox and now with the Chicago Cubs). The Houston Astros are lauded as today’s team leader in sabermetrics.
And yes; in recent years, teams have been learning. By way of example; the defensive shift (realigning the traditional placement of fielders) began in 1946 with an experiment by Cleveland Indians manager Lou Boudreau when Ted Williams was at bat. It wasn’t until the second decade of the 21st century that the shift became more than an oddity. In 2011, MLB teams employed a defensive shift on 2,358 occasions. In 2014, the number rose to more than 13,000.
“If you give it about thirty seconds of thought,” Kenny observes, “you realize why, for about 130 years, professional baseball players stood where they did on the field. That’s where they always stood. With this inability to evolve, it makes you wonder: how do we even survive as a species?”
“Athletes train hard for hours every day,” Kenny writes in closing. “Managers plot and plan, losing sleep. Organizations pour money into resources. Given how hard every player, coach, manager, and executive works, wouldn’t you think they would leap at the chance to gain a tactical edge using information? Each loss is crippling. Things do not have to even out. You need to fight and scrap and give yourself the best chance to win in every half-inning of every game. Burn this into your mind. You cannot give away a game.”
Thomas Hauser can be reached by email at thauser@rcn.com. His most recent book (Muhammad Ali: a Tribute to the Greatest) was published by Pegasus Books. In 2004, the Boxing Writers Association of America honored Hauser with the Nat Fleischer Award for career excellence in boxing journalism.
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Bakhodir Jalolov Returns on Thursday in Another Disgraceful Mismatch

How good is Bakhodir Jalolov? Some would argue that in terms of pure talent, the six-foot-seven southpaw from Uzbekistan who has knocked out all 14 of his opponents since turning pro, is better than any heavyweight you can name. Others say that this can’t possibly be true or his braintrust wouldn’t keep feeding him junk food. Jalolov has been brought along as gingerly as Christopher Lovejoy who was exposed as a fraud after running up a skein of 19 straight fast knockouts,
One thing that’s indisputable is that Jalolov was one of the best amateurs to come down the pike in recent memory. A three-time Olympian and two-time gold medalist, Jalolov won 58 of his last 59 amateur bouts. The exception was a match in which he did not compete which translated into a win by walkover for his opponent, countryman Lazizbek Mullojonov.
The circumstances are vague. Was Jalolov a no-show because of an injury or illness or a technicality? Amateur boxing, save in a few places or in an Olympic year, is the quintessential niche sport. The mainstream media does not cover it.
What we do know, thanks to boxrec, is that Jalolov caught up with Mullojonov in May of last year in the Russian Far East city of Khabarovsk and won a split decision. And Mollojonov was no slouch. He too won a gold medal at the Paris Games, winning the heavyweight division to give the powerful Uzbekistan contingent the championship in the two heaviest weight classes.
Jalolov, whose late father was a champion free-style wrestler, has answered the bell as a pro for only 35 rounds. The Belgian-Congolese campaigner Jack Mulowayi came closest to taking the big Uzbek the distance, lasting into the eighth round of an 8-round fight. But when Jalolov closed the show, he did it with a highlight reel knockout, knocking Mulowayi into dreamland with a vicious left hook.
The KO was reminiscent of Jalolov’s most talked-about win as an amateur, his first-round blast-out of Richard Torrez Jr at a tournament in Ekaterinburg, Russia, in 2019. Torrez, knocked out cold with a left hook, left the ring on a stretcher and was removed to a hospital for evaluation.
This was the first AIBA-sanctioned international tournament in which pros were allowed to compete and WBC president Mauricio Sulaiman was incensed, calling the match-up “criminal” in a tweet that was widely circulated. (Jalolov then had six pro fights under his belt.) They would meet again in the finals of the Tokyo Olympiad with the Uzbek winning a unanimous decision.
Perhaps there will be a third meeting down the road. When Jared Anderson was roughed-up and stopped by Martin Bakole, Torrez Jr (currently 12-0, 11 KOs) vaulted ahead of him on the list of the top home-grown American heavyweights. But Torrez Jr, a short-armed heavyweight who overcomes his physical limitations with a windmill offense, would be a heavy underdog should they ever meet again.
Bakhodir Jalolov’s last bout before heading off to Paris was against the obscure South African Chris Thompson. His match on Thursday at the Montreal Casino in Montreal pits him against an obscure 33-year-old Frenchman, David Spilmont.
Spilmont’s last two opponents were the same guy, an undersized Lithuanian slug who has lost 36 of his 41 documented fights. It seems almost inevitable that Spilmont will suffer the same fate as Thompson who was KOed in the first round.
There’s talk that Jalolov doesn’t really care how far he advances at the professional level; that he has his sights set on the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles where he would have an opportunity to become only the fourth boxer to win three Olympic gold medals, joining the immortal Teofilo Stevenson, Hungarian legend Laszlo Papp, and Cuban standout Felix Savon. Were he to accomplish the hat trick, they would build monuments to him in Uzbekistan. But, if that is his mindset, he’s skating on thin ice. There’s no guarantee that boxing will be on the docket at the Los Angeles Games and, if so, the powers-that-be may choose to roll back the calendar to the days when the competition was off-limits to anyone with professional experience.
While it’s true that Jalolov needs to work off some rust, a pox on promoter Camille Estephan and his enabler, the Quebec Boxing Commission, for not dredging up a more credible opponent than the grossly overmatched David Spilmont.
—
Jalolov vs. Spilmont is ostensibly the co-feature. The main event is a 10-round junior welterweight clash between Movladdin “Arthur” Biyarslanov (17-0, 14 KOs) and Spilmont stablemate Mohamed Mimoune (24-6, 5 KOs). Undefeated light heavyweights Albert Ramirez and Mehmet Unal will appear in separate bouts on the undercard. The Feb. 6 event, currently consisting of seven bouts, will air in the U.S. on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT.
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Claressa Shields Powers to Undisputed Heavyweight Championship

Claressa Shields blasted her way to the undisputed heavyweight championship and nearly knocked out challenger Danielle Perkins in the final seconds, but settled for a win by unanimous decision on Sunday.
Yes, she can punch.
“I just feel overwhelmed and so happy.” Shields said.
Shields (16-0, 3 KOs) proved that even the super athletic Perkins (5-1, 2 KOs), a true heavyweight, could not stop her from becoming an undisputed world champion in a third weight division at Dort Arena in Flint, Michigan, her home town.
In the opening round it was easy to see the size difference. Shields calmly measured Perkins long right jabs then countered with rocket rights through the guard. The speed was evident in Shield’s punches. Perkins used jabs to work her way in but was caught with counters.
“That girl was strong as hell,” said Shields describing Perkins.
Perkins, a southpaw, was somewhat confident that she was the stronger puncher and the stronger fighter overall. But when Shields connected with 10 rocket overhand rights in the third round the power moved Perkins several feet backward.
Suddenly, Perkins realized that indeed Shields has power.
Perkins became more cautious with her approaches. Though the true heavyweight was not frozen in fear, she was wary about getting caught flush with Shields rights. But bullet jabs and lightning combinations still rained on Perkins.
Finding a way to nullify Shields speed was crucial for Perkins.
The former basketball player Perkins continually proved her athleticism with agile moves here and there, but Shields just was superior in every way.
When Perkins became focused too much on the right, a Shields left hook caught the New York native flush. Suddenly there was another Shields weapon to worry about.
Many critics of Shields had focused on her lack of knockouts. But in her previous fight against another heavyweight, the two-time Olympic gold medalist surprised Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse with knockout power. It’s the same power Shields showed Perkins as if firing a fast ball by powering her right with leverage by using her left leg to produce momentum and an explosive punch.
In the 10th and final round Shields and Perkins exchanged blows. Perkins was looking to connect with one of her power shots when suddenly Shields countered with a perfectly timed right to the chin and down went Perkins with about 10 seconds remaining. She beat the count to finish the round.
“I showed I was the bigger puncher and better boxer,” said Shields. “I knew I could do it because I’m really strong at heavyweight.”
All three judges favored Shields 100-89, 99-90 and 97-92.
It was another convincing performance by Shields. So what is next for the best female fighter pound for pound?
“I want to fight Franchon Crews, Hanna Gabriels,” said Shields also naming a few others. “Flint, (Michigan) I love you all so much.”
Other Bouts
A heavyweight clash saw why there is a rule against holding. Brandon Moore (17-1) and Skylar Lacy (8-1-2) punched and held throughout their eight rounds. Referee Steve Willis finally disqualified Lacy when he tackled Moore and took him through the ropes and on to table below.
No, holding and clinching is not part of the fight game. Now you know why.
Moore was ruled the winner by disqualification due to unsportsmanlike conduct by Lacy at 1:35 of the eighth. No need to describe the fight.
A battle between undefeated welterweights saw Joseph Hicks (12-0, 8 KOs) stop Keon Papillon (10-1-1, 7 KOs) at 1:35 of the seventh round. Hicks stunned Papillon at the end of the sixth, then unloaded in the seventh round to force a stoppage.
Joshua Pagan (12-0) out-battled Ronal Ron (16-8) over eight rounds to win the lightweight match by unanimous decision.
Samantha Worthington (11-0) defeated Vaida Masiokaite (10-27-6) by decision after eight rounds in a super lightweight bout.
Featherweight Caroline Veyre (9-1) out-boxed the shorter Carmen Vargas (5-3-1) to win by decision after six rounds.
Super bantamweight Asheleyann Lozada (1-0) won her pro debut by unanimous decision over Denise Moran (3-1) in a four-round fight.
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Benavidez Defeats Morrell; Cruz, Fulton, and Ramos also Victorious at Las Vegas

David Benavidez showed fans why they call him “El Monstro” as he plowed through Cuba’s heavy-punching David Morrell to retain a number one ranking in the light heavyweight division by unanimous decision on Saturday.
Not even a flash knockdown for Morrell could make a difference.
Phoenix native Benavidez (30-0, 24 KOs) gave Morrell (11-1, 9 KOs) his first loss as a professional in front of more than 15,000 fans at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. No one needed to hear the judge’s decision.
“I prepared for everything. I know he’s a great fighter,” said Benavidez. “I thought he was going to hit harder, but he didn’t.”
Before the fight, Morrell was almost an even bet according to oddsmakers, but that was not the case once the fight commenced.
Immediately Benavidez pounded the body and exposed the weaknesses of Morrell’s peek-a-boo defense by using his own left glove to push down the Cuban’s guard. Then immediately firing a crushing right to the jaw.
For the first four rounds Benavidez pounded away on the left and right side of Morrell’s body. And when the openings came the uppercuts caught Morrell’s chin. But he absorbed the blows.
Morrell didn’t waver in trying to find a solution. Though Benavidez connected often to the body and head, the Cuban fighter who moved up from super middleweight displayed a very solid chin.
In the fourth round during a furious exchange Morrell beat Benavidez to the punch that stunned him momentarily. But the blow seemed to spark outrage and a storm of blows followed from Benavidez.
It must have seemed like a nightmare for Morrell.
At times the Cuban fighter would connect perfectly with a right hook and pause. Then Benavidez would return fire with massive blows.
The look on Morrell’s face bore traces of disappointment.
As the rounds continued Benavidez became emboldened by his success. Soon the Mexican Monster began launching lead right uppercuts through Morrell’s guard especially in the sixth round.
“He was easier to hit than I expected,” Benavidez said.
During the breaks Morrell’s corner asked him to pressure Benavidez. It was a fruitless suggestion. How do you corner a Monster?
Benavidez continued to stalk Morrell who never stopped swinging but could not seem to hurt the Monster. In the 11th round Morrell managed to catch Benavidez perfectly with a right hook and down went Benavidez. He immediately got up and the two fighters unloaded on each other. Morrell fired one punch after the bell and was deducted a point by referee Thomas Taylor. That negated the extra point gained from the knockdown.
“I wasn’t really hurt,” said Benavidez. “That bullshit knockdown caught me off-balance.”
The final round saw both resume their efforts to knock the other out. Both showed great chins and the ability to trade. Benavidez was simply better. Even Morrell didn’t wait for the decision to be read as he raised the arm of the Monster at the final bell. All three judges scored in favor of Benavidez 115-111 twice and 118-108.
“He knows this is Monstro’s world. Big shout out for Morrell, he’s a tough fighter,” Benavidez said.
Other Bouts
In a fight dedicated to honor the late Israel Vazquez, the ultimate Aztec warrior, super lightweights Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz (27-3-1) and Angel Fierro (23-3-2) battled like demons for 10 nonstop rounds. Cruz was ruled the winner by unanimous decision.
With little resemblance of defense, Cruz and Fierro whacked each other relentlessly with shots that might have stopped a moving car. Cruz was tagged by a right cross on the top of the head that staggered him momentarily. Fierro was driven back four feet by an overhand right to the chin early in the fight.
Both fighters took cruel and unusual punishment and never wavered more than a few seconds. It was brutal war and fans were the winners after 10 rounds of violent and savage action.
All three judges saw Cruz the winner 96-94, 97-93, 98-92.
“I’m so happy I gave the fans a great fight,” Cruz said.
Fulton Wins
Stephen Fulton (23-1, 8 KOs) defeated Brandon Figueroa (23-2-1, 19 KOs) again and took the WBC featherweight title by unanimous decision after 12 rounds. He had previously defeated Figueroa in 2021 for the WBC and WBO super bantamweight titles.
Most of the action took place in nose-to-nose fashion where Fulton landed the cleaner shots especially with uppercuts. Figueroa had his moments but was unable to hurt the challenger who lost to Naoya Inoue by knockout 17 months ago.
Fulton landed clean shots but as his record shows he lacks the power with only eight knockouts on his record. But Figueroa was unable to hurt or knock down Fulton. After 12 rounds all three judges saw Fulton win by scores of 116-112 twice and 117-111,
“It feels good. I’m champion again,” said Fulton.
Ramos Wins
Jesus Ramos (22-1, 18 KOs) won by technical knockout over former world champion Jeison Rosario (24-5-2) in the eighth round of a middleweight fight. Both fighters attacked the body but by the sixth round Ramos was the busier fighter and began to dominate the fight. At 2:18 of the eighth round referee Robert Hoyle stopped the fight.
“I like to throw a lot of body punches. It’s kind of my style,” said Ramos.
Photos credit: Al Applerose
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