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Who Will Win the Canelo-Jacobs Fight? 15 TSS Writers Give Their Picks 

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Canelo vs Jacobs

Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and middleweight title-holder Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs collide on Saturday, May 4, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. As is our custom whenever there is a mega-fight, we reached out to our community of writers to get their predictions. Our reach extended to our colleagues at our Spanish-language sister sites.

Predictably, there was a strong lean to Alvarez, the betting favorite, but Jacobs had his supporters and they made some provocative points.

Comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, whose specialty is combat sports, provided the graphic. Check out more of Rob Ayala’s illustrations at his web site fight posium.

The correspondents are listed alphabetically.

Gilda Aburto

A majority of people in the boxing business think Canelo will win, but Jacobs won’t be a piece of candy. Jacobs has a good defense, throws powerful combinations, he can fight in and out, and has proved he can go the distance. In order to win, Jacobs will have to pressure Canelo from the opening bell. Some say he doesn’t have a chance if the fight goes to the scorecards with the fight being held in Las Vegas, but JACOBS has everything that it takes to get a sound victory on Saturday.

J.J. Alvarez

Jacobs is taller, faster, stronger and has superior movement inside the ring. But his skills may be receding. In his last fight against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, the man who defeated cancer lacked potency behind his strikes and the ability to maintain the volume of his punches. The Mexican is strong and resilient, possessing a left hook which is his most lethal weapon. This will be the biggest concern for Jacobs defensively from start to finish. And due to his superior stature, his torso will be easily targeted by his opponent’s most devastating weapon. CANELO by decision.

Matt Andrzejewski

The signs all point to a JACOBS  upset. He possesses the type of movement that can give all sorts of issues to Canelo. In addition, I think Jacobs will land his counter right with consistency when Canelo attempts to throw to the body. It’s a bad style matchup for Canelo. Jacobs by clear cut unanimous decision.

Rick Assad

Because of his height and reach advantage and his punching power, Jacobs, the Brooklyn, New York native, could cause Alvarez problems throughout. But CANELO will work the body and counterpunch effectively and should prevail in the late rounds, say the 10th or 11th.

Bernard Fernandez

If professional boxing were like Olympic boxing, Daniel Jacobs would be, barring the standard and reprehensible corruption often seen at those quadrennial world events, a good bet to come away with no better than a bronze medal. But unless Gennady Golovkin has aged faster than most people think, and Canelo Alvarez’s skill set is not as outsized as his popularity, Jacobs will continue to be slotted in as the No. 3 guy at 160 pounds. It’s competitive, but call it CANELO by unanimous decision.

Jeffrey Freeman

JACOBS SD 12:  By now, most knowledgeable observers can see how good Canelo is and what it will take to beat him. Danny Jacobs has the right stuff—superior size, an edge in punching power, and arguably better boxing skills. If Jacobs can finally put it all together and stay off the canvas for twelve rounds against the best counterpuncher in boxing, he will be rewarded with a split decision victory, all the title belts, and an even bigger bucks rematch with the biggest money fighter in the game. Sure, Canelo (and Oscar) will insist he won and jaded fans will give him no sympathy regardless, but it will be Alvarez laughing all the way to the bank as he and Jacobs lay the groundwork for a middleweight championship trilogy on DAZN.

Miguel Iturrate

I think Daniel Jacobs has a chance. He is a skilled boxer and if he has a good horse under him and can keep moving he could convince the judges he did more. It would be interesting to see a version of Jacobs like we did against Peter Quillin, where he came out ruthless and mean. We will see, it is Vegas, and it is Cinco de Mayo, which is “Canelo” day basically. But JACOBS is longer, taller and has a high boxing IQ. Canelo shouldn’t be too comfortable leaving it to the judges.

Lazaro Malvarez

We are in the presence of an enticing fight, but not necessarily a good one. Jacobs, with a large purse secured for retirement, may not be very aggressive, giving Canelo opportunities to gain confidence and land significant strikes which will be responded to by roaring support from the crowd. The red headed boxer from Guadalajara is currently at the peak of his career. He’s the king of the party and business must go on. Only a miracle could have the “Miracle Man” leaving victorious on May 4th. CANELO by decision.

Kelsey McCarson

Despite his tremendous accomplishments, Alvarez is still just 28 years old. The scariest thing about that is that he always seems to be improving as a prizefighter, at least since he lost to Floyd Mayweather by decision in 2013. I don’t expect that to change on Saturday, so I’m picking CANELO by decision. Jacobs is a very good middleweight. He has a tremendous back story and will use his excellent skills to give Alvarez a tough test. But Alvarez is one of the best counterpunchers in boxing, and once he starts letting his hands go, Jacobs will have little to rely on but his jab. Alvarez will land the cleaner, harder punches and the judges will have a pretty easy fight to score.

Matt McGrain

I’d like to see Jacobs hold the line a little bit more than he did against Golovkin.  Alvarez is a dangerous puncher. He’s nothing like as thudding as GGG but the Mexican is probably every bit as good at finding his man when he moves.  If Jacobs turns consistently to squabbling on the backfoot he’ll get out-picked by consistent hitting.  If he can hold the line I make this a 50.50 fight.  However, I expect CANELO to start moving Jacobs later in the fight with the cards in the balance. The American will drop a narrow but just decision.

Sean Nam

Daniel Jacobs may have all the physical attributes to beat Saul Alvarez. He is bigger and just as quick, if not quicker. He also knows how to switch stances intelligently and carries above-average punching power. But his last two fights, close decisions over Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Maciej Sulecki, revealed just where Jacobs is: a very good middleweight, but not great. Against, Alvarez, he will need to be busy every round. That the fight is taking place in Alvarez’s adopted hometown of Las Vegas pretty much ensures that Jacobs will need a knockout to win — but that is far more unlikely than the fight going to the cards. CANELO by split decision.

Ted Sares

Jacobs will come in looking much bigger than CANELO as he rehydrates like David Lemieux, but that won’t save him from Canelo’s pressure and especially Canelo’s body work. I look for a late stoppage in the redhead’s favor. Danny’s corner may have to save him from himself.

Phil Woolever

Jacobs seems prepared to perform much better than predicted by the majority of oddsmakers who currently list him at around a 3 or 4 to 1 underdog, but much of that depends on how Alvarez, who looks like he’s getting even better, shows up on fight night. As the saying goes regarding motivational money, CANELO has millions of reasons to be at his best for this contest and I think he’ll respond looking stronger than ever.

The Last Words

For our final thoughts we turn to TSS West Coast Bureau Chief David Avila and to Dino da Vinci, a man who needs no introduction.

AVILA: Unless someone scores a knockdown I see it as a very even fight. I am picking a draw.

da VINCI: Canelo begins his ascent to claim Floyd’s P-4-P King status.

Check out more boxing news on video at The Boxing Channel

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Juan Francisco Estrada Holds Off ‘Chocolatito’ Again

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Once again Juan Francisco Estrada jumped out in front early and Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez needed time to crank up the engine, but fell too far behind as the Mexican fighter won the vacant WBC flyweight world title on Saturday.

Estrada wins the trilogy 10 years in the making.

Once again Estrada (44-3, 28 KOs) surged ahead early in the fight against Nicaragua’s Gonzalez (51-4, 41 KOs) and then navigated toward another win, this time at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona on the Matchroom Boxing card.

“We had excellent preparation at high altitude and I think we left the fight clear on who won the fight this time,” said Estrada about the third encounter.

Ten years ago, the trilogy began in Los Angeles as “Chocolatito” confronted an unknown fighter at the time in Estrada. The two surprised the crowd who expected Gonzalez to destroy yet another Mexican fighter. But it did not happen that night though Chocolatito proved too experienced and battered his way to victory in a light flyweight world title clash.

Then, in March 2021, Estrada finally fought Gonzalez in a rematch and the two engaged in a closely-fought super flyweight world title match. This time Estrada proved slightly better according to the judges and won by split decision in Dallas, Texas.

Few knew what to expect in a third encounter.

At first the coronavirus stalled plans for the trifecta so Chocolatito fought a replacement and dominated. Meanwhile Estrada fought another Mexican and did not look good.

On Saturday, a decade after their first encounter, Estrada looked fluid and accurate in dominating the first six rounds of the fight. Though he did not hurt Gonzalez, he was repeatedly scoring at will.

Gonzalez woke up around the seventh round.

Suddenly the Nicaraguan who was once considered the best fighter Pound for Pound showed up and fired rapid combinations. The spring in his legs suddenly appeared and the energy level was cranked up high after nearly being on idle.

Estrada suddenly found himself against the ropes forced to slip and slide away from Gonzalez’s powerful combination punches. A real fight suddenly erupted during the final six rounds.

“All fights are different and all fights are difficult and this was the most difficult one,” said Gonzalez, a four-division world champion.

Though neither fighter was ever visibly hurt, Gonzalez’s pressure kept Estrada expending too much energy trying to evade the Nicaraguan’s traps during the final six rounds.

“He always goes 100 miles an hour,” said Estrada of his nemesis.

Estrada used uppercuts and slide steps to maneuver against Gonzalez’s hard charges. It seemed to work and allowed the Mexican fighter more room and time to apply counter-measures.

In the final round, those maneuvers allowed Estrada to connect with a hard punch to the body that forced Chocolatito to cover up. It also allowed Estrada to unravel a combination that gave him the last round if needed. After 12 rounds one judge scored it 114-114, while two others saw it 116-112, 115-113 for Estrada who becomes the new WBC super flyweight world titlist.

“We did an excellent fight and I got the victory,” said Estrada. “I’ve always said Chocolatito is a future Hall of Famer.”

Gonzalez was gracious in defeat.

“What is important is we gave that good fight to the fans and we came out in good health,” Gonzalez said.

There is even talk of a fourth fight.

“As long as they pay well, of course,” said Gonzalez.

Other Fights

Julio Cesar Martinez (19-2, 14 KOs) retained the WBC flyweight world title by majority decision over Spain’s Samuel Carmona (8-1) in a rather dull affair. Mexico’s Martinez chased Carmon all 12 rounds in a fight that saw Carmona slap and run, then hold.

No knockdowns were scored and Martinez won 114-114, 117-111, 116-112.

Diego Pacheco (17-0, 14 KOs) ran over Mexico’s Adrian Luna (24-9-2) with three knockdowns in winning by stoppage in the second round of the super middleweight fight. It was no surprise.

The 21-year-old from South Central L.A. once again showed that despite his youth his power seems to be continually increasing as evident in the knockout win.

Now training with Team David Benavidez, the young super middleweight looked sharp, especially with the lead overhand right that floored Luna in the second round. Luna was floored two more times and the fight was wisely stopped by his own corner.

“You put in the hard work then you come in here and shine,” said Pacheco. “I joined team Benavidez this year.”

Nicaragua’s former world titlist Cristofer Rosales (35-6, 21 KOs) won a dog fight over Mexico’s Joselito Velasquez (15-1-1, 10 KOs) by unanimous decision after 10 rounds in a flyweight clash.

It was a back-and-forth struggle that saw the taller Rosales take over in the second half of the fight and win by simply out-punching Velasquez and handing the Mexican his first loss as a professional by scores 97-93 three times.

Photo credit: Milena Pizano

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Tyson Fury TKOs Derek Chisora in Round 10

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It was a chilly night in London but that didn’t deter a near-capacity crowd from turning out at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to witness the third rumble between Tyson Fury and Derek Chisora. The Gypsy King was heavily favored to retain his WBC and lineal heavyweight title and performed as expected. Indeed, this fight closely resembled their second encounter back in 2014.

In that bout, Chisora absorbed a terrific amount of punishment before his corner pulled him out at the conclusion of the 10th round. Tonight’s fight ended nine seconds earlier at the 2:51 mark of round 10 and it was the referee who terminated the match.

When is a heavyweight not a heavyweight? When the man in the opposite corner is substantially bigger. With an 8-inch height advantage and a 15-inch reach advantage, the six-foot-nine Fury was simply too big a mountain to climb for the brave Derek Chisora, a fighter who changed his nickname in mid-career, transitioning from “Dell Boy” to “War.”

Fury dominated round two, especially the last minute, a round in which he was credited with landing 18 power punches. The writing was on the wall for Chisora who ate a lot of thudding uppercuts in the ensuing rounds and ended the contest with a badly swollen right eye and a bloody mouth. With the victory, Fury improved his ledger to 32-0-1 with his 24th win inside the distance. The Zimbabwe-born Chisora falls to 33-13.

Oleksandr Usyk and Joe Joyce were in attendance and the Gypsy King addressed both before he left the ring. Calling Usyk “The Rabbit,” he indicated that he would fight Usyk next in a true unification fight, but said if there were a snag in negotiations he wouldn’t mind trading blows with the Juggernaut, Joe Joyce, who wore down and stopped former heavyweight title-holder Joseph Parker, a former Fury sparring partner, in his most recent engagement. However, Fury also revealed that he had an issue with his right elbow that may require surgery.

Co-Feature

In a heavyweight match that lasted only three rounds but was chock-full of action, Daniel Dubois overcame three knockdowns to retain his secondary WBA heavyweight title he won at the expense Trevor Bryan with a third-round stoppage of upset-minded Kevin Lerena.

In the opening stanza, Johannesburg’s Lerena, landed an overhand left on the top of Dubois’s head that put the Englishman on the canvas and left him all at sea. He went down twice more before the round was over, the first time of his own volition when he took a knee (reminiscent of his match with Joe Joyce) and the second from a glancing blow.

Dubois, whose legs are spindly for a man of his poundage, had trouble regaining his equilibrium in round two, but Lerena didn’t press his advantage. In the next frame, a short right from Dubois penetrated Lerena’s guard and down went the South African. Smelling blood, Dubois knocked him down again and was pummeling him against the ropes when the referee interceded just as it appeared that Lerena would be saved by the bell.

It was the fourth straight win for Dubois (19-1, 18 KOs) since his mishap versus Joyce. Lerena, who entered the bout on a 17-fight winning streak, lost for the second time in 30 fights.

Also

In a ho-hum affair, Denis Berinchyk, a 24-year-old Ukrainian, captured the European lightweight title and remained undefeated with a unanimous decision over French-Senagalese warhorse Ivan Mendy. Berinchyk (17-0, 9 KOs) was making his first appearance in London since winning a silver medal at the 2012 Olympics where he was a teammate of Oleksandr Usyk and Vasiliy Lomachenko.

The judges had it 117-112 and 116-112 twice for the Ukrainian. The 37-year-old Mendy, who has answered the bell for 380 rounds, falls to 47-6-1.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank via Getty Images

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Light Nips Glanton in Florida; across the pond, Kelly UD 12 Williamson in Newcastle

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ProBox TV, a fledgling promotional group co-founded by former world champions Roy Jones Jr, Juan Manuel Marquez, and Paulie Malignaggi, has found a home for their bi-monthly shows at an events center in Plant City, Florida, near Tampa. The main event of last night’s show (Friday, Dec. 2) was a well-matched 10-rounder between world ranked cruiserweights Brandon Glanton (pictured on the left) and David Light, both undefeated.

Light, a 31-year-old New Zealander who was 19-0 (12 KOs) heading in, had a strong amateur background that included a silver medal at the 2014 Commonwealth Games, but was virtually unknown outside the Antipodes, having fought almost exclusively on small shows in Auckland. Glanton, a 30-year-old Atlanta native who had trimmed down considerably since his days as a defensive lineman at HBCU Albany State, had caught the eye of hardcore fight fans with a thrilling split decision over previously unbeaten Efetobor Apochi on a TBS show in Minneapolis.

The oddsmakers made Glanton (17-0, 14 KOs heading in) a small favorite and after 10 hard rounds there were many who thought he deserved the nod. He turned the fight into a “phone booth” affair, pressing the action while working the body effectively, and scored the bout’s lone knockdown, knocking Light off his pins (he wasn’t badly hurt) in the final frame with what appeared to be a glancing blow. But two of the judges were more impressed by Light’s counter-punching, scoring the bout 97-92 and 95-94 for the kiwi, overruling the dissenter who had it 95-94 for Blanton.

It was the sort of fight that cries out for a rematch, but David Light will undoubtedly go in a different direction. Both he and Glanton were pointing toward a match with WBO title-holder Lawrence Okolie.

Newcastle

Earlier on Friday, across the pond in Newcastle, England, former Olympian Josh Kelly got the signature win that had eluded him with a lopsided 12-round decision over defending British 154-pound title-holder and former amateur teammate Troy Williamson.

This was Kelly’s third fight since David Avanesyan burst his bubble in a welterweight affair, stopping Kelly in the sixth stanza. The local fighter, who boosted his record to 13-1-1 (7) blamed his poor performance on his struggle to make weight.

The previously undefeated Williamson, 19-0-1 heading in, was making the second defense of the title he won in a barnburner with Ted Cheeseman. He went to post a small favorite, but was outclassed by Kelly who won by scores of 119-109, 119-111, and 118-110.

In the co-feature, Manchester’s Lyndon Arthur (21-1, 15 KOs) stayed relevant in the light heavyweight division with a second-round stoppage of overmatched Joel McIntyre (20-5). In his lone defeat, Arthur was TKOed by revenge-minded Anthony Yarde.

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