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Who Will Win the Canelo-Jacobs Fight? 15 TSS Writers Give Their Picks
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Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and middleweight title-holder Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs collide on Saturday, May 4, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. As is our custom whenever there is a mega-fight, we reached out to our community of writers to get their predictions. Our reach extended to our colleagues at our Spanish-language sister sites.
Predictably, there was a strong lean to Alvarez, the betting favorite, but Jacobs had his supporters and they made some provocative points.
Comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, whose specialty is combat sports, provided the graphic. Check out more of Rob Ayala’s illustrations at his web site fight posium.
The correspondents are listed alphabetically.
Gilda Aburto
A majority of people in the boxing business think Canelo will win, but Jacobs won’t be a piece of candy. Jacobs has a good defense, throws powerful combinations, he can fight in and out, and has proved he can go the distance. In order to win, Jacobs will have to pressure Canelo from the opening bell. Some say he doesn’t have a chance if the fight goes to the scorecards with the fight being held in Las Vegas, but JACOBS has everything that it takes to get a sound victory on Saturday.
J.J. Alvarez
Jacobs is taller, faster, stronger and has superior movement inside the ring. But his skills may be receding. In his last fight against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, the man who defeated cancer lacked potency behind his strikes and the ability to maintain the volume of his punches. The Mexican is strong and resilient, possessing a left hook which is his most lethal weapon. This will be the biggest concern for Jacobs defensively from start to finish. And due to his superior stature, his torso will be easily targeted by his opponent’s most devastating weapon. CANELO by decision.
Matt Andrzejewski
The signs all point to a JACOBS upset. He possesses the type of movement that can give all sorts of issues to Canelo. In addition, I think Jacobs will land his counter right with consistency when Canelo attempts to throw to the body. It’s a bad style matchup for Canelo. Jacobs by clear cut unanimous decision.
Rick Assad
Because of his height and reach advantage and his punching power, Jacobs, the Brooklyn, New York native, could cause Alvarez problems throughout. But CANELO will work the body and counterpunch effectively and should prevail in the late rounds, say the 10th or 11th.
Bernard Fernandez
If professional boxing were like Olympic boxing, Daniel Jacobs would be, barring the standard and reprehensible corruption often seen at those quadrennial world events, a good bet to come away with no better than a bronze medal. But unless Gennady Golovkin has aged faster than most people think, and Canelo Alvarez’s skill set is not as outsized as his popularity, Jacobs will continue to be slotted in as the No. 3 guy at 160 pounds. It’s competitive, but call it CANELO by unanimous decision.
Jeffrey Freeman
JACOBS SD 12: By now, most knowledgeable observers can see how good Canelo is and what it will take to beat him. Danny Jacobs has the right stuff—superior size, an edge in punching power, and arguably better boxing skills. If Jacobs can finally put it all together and stay off the canvas for twelve rounds against the best counterpuncher in boxing, he will be rewarded with a split decision victory, all the title belts, and an even bigger bucks rematch with the biggest money fighter in the game. Sure, Canelo (and Oscar) will insist he won and jaded fans will give him no sympathy regardless, but it will be Alvarez laughing all the way to the bank as he and Jacobs lay the groundwork for a middleweight championship trilogy on DAZN.
Miguel Iturrate
I think Daniel Jacobs has a chance. He is a skilled boxer and if he has a good horse under him and can keep moving he could convince the judges he did more. It would be interesting to see a version of Jacobs like we did against Peter Quillin, where he came out ruthless and mean. We will see, it is Vegas, and it is Cinco de Mayo, which is “Canelo” day basically. But JACOBS is longer, taller and has a high boxing IQ. Canelo shouldn’t be too comfortable leaving it to the judges.
Lazaro Malvarez
We are in the presence of an enticing fight, but not necessarily a good one. Jacobs, with a large purse secured for retirement, may not be very aggressive, giving Canelo opportunities to gain confidence and land significant strikes which will be responded to by roaring support from the crowd. The red headed boxer from Guadalajara is currently at the peak of his career. He’s the king of the party and business must go on. Only a miracle could have the “Miracle Man” leaving victorious on May 4th. CANELO by decision.
Kelsey McCarson
Despite his tremendous accomplishments, Alvarez is still just 28 years old. The scariest thing about that is that he always seems to be improving as a prizefighter, at least since he lost to Floyd Mayweather by decision in 2013. I don’t expect that to change on Saturday, so I’m picking CANELO by decision. Jacobs is a very good middleweight. He has a tremendous back story and will use his excellent skills to give Alvarez a tough test. But Alvarez is one of the best counterpunchers in boxing, and once he starts letting his hands go, Jacobs will have little to rely on but his jab. Alvarez will land the cleaner, harder punches and the judges will have a pretty easy fight to score.
Matt McGrain
I’d like to see Jacobs hold the line a little bit more than he did against Golovkin. Alvarez is a dangerous puncher. He’s nothing like as thudding as GGG but the Mexican is probably every bit as good at finding his man when he moves. If Jacobs turns consistently to squabbling on the backfoot he’ll get out-picked by consistent hitting. If he can hold the line I make this a 50.50 fight. However, I expect CANELO to start moving Jacobs later in the fight with the cards in the balance. The American will drop a narrow but just decision.
Sean Nam
Daniel Jacobs may have all the physical attributes to beat Saul Alvarez. He is bigger and just as quick, if not quicker. He also knows how to switch stances intelligently and carries above-average punching power. But his last two fights, close decisions over Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Maciej Sulecki, revealed just where Jacobs is: a very good middleweight, but not great. Against, Alvarez, he will need to be busy every round. That the fight is taking place in Alvarez’s adopted hometown of Las Vegas pretty much ensures that Jacobs will need a knockout to win — but that is far more unlikely than the fight going to the cards. CANELO by split decision.
Ted Sares
Jacobs will come in looking much bigger than CANELO as he rehydrates like David Lemieux, but that won’t save him from Canelo’s pressure and especially Canelo’s body work. I look for a late stoppage in the redhead’s favor. Danny’s corner may have to save him from himself.
Phil Woolever
Jacobs seems prepared to perform much better than predicted by the majority of oddsmakers who currently list him at around a 3 or 4 to 1 underdog, but much of that depends on how Alvarez, who looks like he’s getting even better, shows up on fight night. As the saying goes regarding motivational money, CANELO has millions of reasons to be at his best for this contest and I think he’ll respond looking stronger than ever.
The Last Words
For our final thoughts we turn to TSS West Coast Bureau Chief David Avila and to Dino da Vinci, a man who needs no introduction.
AVILA: Unless someone scores a knockdown I see it as a very even fight. I am picking a draw.
da VINCI: Canelo begins his ascent to claim Floyd’s P-4-P King status.
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Bivol Evens the Score with Beterbiev; Parker and Stevenson Win Handily
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It was labeled the best boxing card in history.
That’s up for debate.
And there was some debate as Dmitry Bivol avenged his loss to Artur Beterbiev to become the new undisputed light heavyweight world champion on Saturday by majority decision in a tactical battle.
“He gave me this chance and I appreciate it,” said Bivol of Beterbiev.
Bivol (24-1, 12 KOs) rallied from behind to give Beterbiev (21-1, 20 KOs) his first pro loss in their rematch at a sold out crowd in the Venue Riyadh Season in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Like their first encounter the rematch was also very close.
Four months ago, these two faced each other as undefeated light heavyweights. Now, after two furious engagements, both have losses.
Beterbiev was making his first defense as undisputed light heavyweight champion and made adjustments from their first match. This time the Russian fighter who trains in Canada concentrated on a body attack and immediately saw dividends.
For most of the first six rounds it seemed Beterbiev would slowly grind down Bivol until he reached an unsurmountable lead. But despite the momentum he never could truly hurt Bivol or gain separation.
Things turned around in the seventh round as Bivol opened up with combinations to the head and body while slipping Beterbiev’s blows. It was a sudden swing of momentum. But how long could it last?
“It was hard to keep him at the distance. I had to be smarter and punch more clean punches,” said Bivol.
Beterbiev attempted to regain the momentum but Bivol was not allowing it to happen. In the final 10 seconds he opened up with a machine gun combination. Though few of the punches connected it became clear he was not going to allow unclarity.
Using strategic movement Bivol laced quick combinations and immediately departed. Betebiev seemed determined to counter the fleet fighter but was unsuccessful for much of the second half of the fight.
Around the 10th round Beterbiev stepped on the gas with the same formula of working the body and head. It gave Bivol pause but he still unleashed quick combos to keep from being overrun.
Bivol connected with combinations and Beterbiev connected with single body and head shots. It was going to be tough for the referees to decide which attack they preferred. After 12 rounds with no knockdowns one judge saw it a draw at 114-114. But two others saw Bivol the winner 116-112, 115-113.
“I was better. I was pushing myself more, I was lighter. I just wanted to win so much today,” said Bivol.
Beterbiev was gracious in defeat.
“Congratulations to Bivol’s team” said Beterbiev. “I think this fight was better than the first fight.”
After the match it was discussed that an effort to make a third fight is a strong possibility.
Heavyweight KO by Parker
Joseph Parker (36-3, 24 KOs) once again proved he could be the best heavyweight without a world title in knocking out the feared Martin Bakole (21-2, 16 KOs) to retain his WBO interim title. It was quick and decisive.
“Catch him when he is coming in,” said Parker, 33, about his plan.
After original foe IBF heavyweight titlist Daniel Dubois was forced to withdraw due to illness, Bakole willingly accepted the match with only two days’ notice. Many experts and fans around the world were surprised and excited Parker accepted the match.
Ever since Parker lost to Joe Joyce in 2022, the New Zealander has proven to be vastly improved with wins over Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang. Now you can add Bakole to the list of conquests.
Bakole, 33, was coming off an impressive knockout win last July and posed a serious threat if he connected with a punch. The quick-handed Bakole at 310 pounds and a two-inch height advantage is always dangerous.
In the first round Parker was wary of the fighter from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He kept his range and moved around the ring looking to poke a jab and move. Bakole caught him twice with blows and Parker retaliated.
It proved to be a very important test.
Parker refrained from moving and instead moved inside range of the big African fighter. Both exchanged liberally with Bakole connecting with an uppercut and Parker an overhand right.
Bakole shook his head at the blow he absorbed.
Both re-engaged and fired simultaneously. Parker’s right connected to the top of the head of Bakole who shuddered and stumbled and down he went and could not beat the count. The referee stopped the heavyweight fight at 2:17 of the second round. Parker retains his interim title by knockout.
“I’m strong, I’m healthy, I’m sharp,” said Parker. “I had to be patient.”
Shakur Wins
Despite an injured left hand southpaw WBC lightweight titlist Shakur Stevenson (23-0, 11 KOs) won by stoppage over late replacement Josh Padley (15-1, 6 KOs). It was an impressive accomplishment.
Often criticized for his lack of action and safety-first style, Stevenson was supposed to fight undefeated Floyd Schofield who pulled out due to illness. In stepped British lightweight Padley who had nothing to lose.
Padley was never hesitant to engage with the super-quick Stevenson and despite the lightning-quick combos by the champion, the British challenger exchanged liberally. It just wasn’t enough.
Even when Stevenson injured his left hand during an exchange in the sixth round, Padley just couldn’t take advantage. The speedy southpaw kept shooting the right jabs and ripping off right hooks. At the end of the sixth Stevenson briefly switched to a right-handed fighting style.
Stevenson used his right jabs and hooks to perfection. Double right hooks to the head and body seemed to affect the British challenger. A clean left to the body of Padley sent him to the floor for the count in the ninth round. It was a surprising knockdown due to his injured left. Padley got up and the fight resumed. Stevenson unloaded with right hooks to the body and down went the British fighter once again. He got up and tried to fight his way out but was met with another left to the body and down he went a third time. Padley’s corner tossed in a white towel to signify surrender. The referee stopped the fight at the end of the round. Stevenson scored his 11th knockout win.
Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom
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Early Results from Riyadh where Hamzah Sheeraz was Awarded a Gift Draw
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After two 6-round appetizers, British light heavyweights Joshua Buatsi and Callum Smith got the show rolling with a lusty 12-round skirmish. Things went south in the middle of the seven-fight main card when WBC middleweight champion Carlos Adames locked horns with challenger Hamzah Sheeraz. This was a drab fight owing to a milquetoast performance by the favored Sheeraz.
Heading in, the lanky six-foot-three Sheeraz, whose physique is mindful of a young Thomas Hearns, was undefeated in 21 fights. Having stopped five of his last six opponents in two rounds or less, the 25-year-old Englishman was touted as the next big thing in the middleweight division. However, he fought off his back foot the entire contest, reluctant to let his hands go, and Adames kept his title when the bout was scored a draw.
Sheeraz had the crowd in his corner and two of the judges scored the match with their ears. Their tallies were 115-114 for Sheeraz and 114-114. The third judge had it 118-110 for Adames, the 30-year old Dominican, now 24-1-1, who had Ismael Salas in his corner.
Ortiz-Madrimov
Super welterweight Vergil Ortiz Jr, knocked out his first 21 opponents, begging the question of how he would react when he finally faced adversity. He showed his mettle in August of last year when he went a sizzling 12 rounds with fellow knockout artist Serhii Bohachuk, winning a hard-fought decision. Tonight he added another feather in his cap with a 12-round unanimous decision over Ismail Madrimov, prevailing on scores of 117-111 and 115-113 twice.
Ortiz won by adhering tight to Robert Garcia’s game plan. The elusive Madrimov, who bounces around the ring like the energizer bunny, won the early rounds. But eventually Ortiz was able to cut the ring off and turned the tide in his favor by landing the harder punches. It was the second straight loss for Madrimov (10-2-1), a decorated amateur who had lost a close but unanimous decision to Terence Crawford in his previous bout.
Kabayel-Zhang
No heavyweight has made greater gains in the last 15 months than Agit Kabayel. The German of Kurdish descent, whose specialty is body punching, made his third straight appearance in Riyadh tonight and, like in the previous two, fashioned a knockout. Today, although out-weighed by more than 40 pounds, he did away with Zhilei “Big Bang” Zhang in the sixth round.
It didn’t start out well for Kabayel. The New Jersey-based, six-foot-six Zhang, a two-time Olympian for China, started fast and plainly won the opening round. Kabayel beat him to the punch from that point on, save for one moment when Zhang put him on the canvas with a straight left hand.
That happened in the fifth round, but by the end of the frame, the 41-year-old Zhang was conspicuously gassed. The end for the big fellow came at the 2:29 mark of round six when he couldn’t beat the count after crumbling to the canvas in a delayed reaction after taking a hard punch to his flabby midsection.
Kabayel remains undefeated at 26-0 (18 KOs). Zhang (27-3-1) hadn’t previously been stopped.
Smith-Buatsi
The all-British showdown between light heavyweights Joshua Buatsi and Callum Smith was a grueling, fan-friendly affair. A former 168-pound world title-holder, Smith, 34, won hard-earned unanimous decision, prevailing on scores of 115-113, 116-112, and a ludicrous 119-110.
There were no knockdowns, but Liverpool’s Smith, who advanced to 31-2 (22) finished the contest with a bad gash in the corner of his right eye. It was the first pro loss for Buatsi (19-1), an Olympic bronze medalist who entered the contest a small favorite and was the defending “interim” title-holder.
This contest was also a battle of wits between two of America’s most prominent trainers, Buddy McGirt (Smith) and Virgil Hunter (Buatsi).
Check back shortly for David Avila’s wrap-up of the last three fights.
Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom
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Cain Sandoval KOs Mark Bernaldez in the Featured Bout at Santa Ynez
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Northern California’s Cain Sandoval remained undefeated with a knockout win over Mark Bernaldez in a super lightweight battle on Friday on a 360 Promotions card.
Sandoval (15-0, 13 KOs) of Sacramento needed four rounds to figure out tough Filipino fighter Bernaldez (25-7, 14 KOs) in front of a packed crowd at Chumash Casino in Santa Ynez.
Bernaldez had gone eight rounds against Mexico’s very tough Oscar Duarte. He showed no fear for Sandoval’s reputed power and both fired bombs at each other from the second round on.
Things turned in favor of Sandoval when he targeted the body and soon had Bernaldez in retreat. It was apparent Sandoval had discovered a weakness.
In the beginning of the fourth Sandoval fired a stiff jab to the body that buckled Bernaldez but he did not go down. And when both resumed in firing position Sandoval connected with an overhand right and down went the Filipino fighter. He was counted out by referee Rudy Barragan at 34 seconds of the round.
“I’m surprised he took my jab to the body. I respect that. I have a knockout and I’m happy about that,” Sandoval said.
Other Bouts
Popular female fighter Lupe Medina (9-0) remained undefeated with a solid victory over the determined Agustina Vazquez (4-3-2) by unanimous decision after eight rounds in a minimumweight fight between Southern Californians.
Early on Vazquez gave Medina trouble disrupting her patter with solid jabs. And when Medina overloaded with combination punches, she was laced with counters from Vazquez during the first four rounds.
Things turned around in the fifth round as Medina used a jab to keep Vazquez at a preferred distance. And when she attacked it was no more than two-punch combination and maintaining a distance.
Vazquez proved determined but discovered clinching was not a good idea as Medina took advantage and overran her with blows. Still, Vazquez looked solid. All three judges saw it 79-73 for Medina.
A battle between Southern Californian’s saw Compton’s Christopher Rios (11-2) put on the pressure all eight rounds against Eastvale’s Daniel Barrera (8-1-1) and emerged the winner by majority decision in a flyweight battle.
It was Barrera’s first loss as a pro. He never could discover how to stay off the ropes and that proved his downfall. Neither fighter was knocked down but one judge saw it 76-76, and two others 79-73 for Rios.
In a welterweight fight Gor Yeritsyan (20-1,16 KOs) scorched Luis Ramos (23-7) with a 12-punch combination the sent him to the mat in the second round. After Ramos beat the count he was met with an eight punch volley and the fight was stopped at 2:11 of the second round by knockout.
Super feather prospect Abel Mejia (7-0, 5 KOs) floored Alfredo Diaz (9-12) in the fifth round but found the Mexican fighter to be very durable in their six-round fight. Mejia caught Diaz with a left hook in the fifth round for a knockdown. But the fight resumed with all three judges scoring it 60-53 for Mejia who fights out of El Modena, Calif.
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