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Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith: Predictions from Our Community of Writers

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, the biggest draw and the consensus #1 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing, returns to the ring Saturday after a 13 ½ -month absence to oppose undefeated Callum Smith at the San Antonio Alamodome with two 168-pound world title belts at stake. The bout between the two 30-year-old prizefighters headlines a 7-bout card that will air on DAZN in 200+ countries and territories worldwide and on TV Azteca in Mexico.
We invited members of our editorial staff to provide a quick analysis of the match and forecast the outcome. Their prognostications appear below with the respondents listed in reverse alphabetical order.
The graphic is by Colorado comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, a repeat visitor whenever we summon up a “prediction page.” Ayala’s work is attracting a lot of buzz, inflating his workload, and we don’t know how long we will be able to keep him. Check out more of Rob’s cool illustrations at his web site fight posium.
PICKS
Each boxer should be near peak career form so this could be a very good fight in the early going if Smith’s power proves surprising. Still, he’s never faced anyone with credentials like numerous of Canelo’s vanquished opponents so the main question seems to be if or how long Smith can avoid an inevitable stoppage. My guess is eight or nine rounds, but that’s giving Smith’s untested jaw a benefit of the doubt. – PHIL WOOLEVER
Saul Canelo Alvarez (52-1-2) won’t have a walk-over when he fights the undefeated (27-0) and tall (6’3”) Callum “Mundo” Smith on Saturday in San Antonio, but Smith is hardly the toughest opponent that Canelo has faced. The talented redhead should figure out Smith’s big reach and height advantage by the mid-rounds—if not earlier– and win easily going down the stretch using head movement and brutal body work. Alvarez, the veteran here, is at the top of everyone’s list of P4P fighters. That says it all. – TED SARES
Canelo will win, firmly underlining the eternal truth of Levels in Boxing on the way. The quality of the win should not be underestimated despite its inevitability; Smith is rated the best 168lb fighter in the world by both RING and TBRB and his defeat should herald praise. The interesting question is whether or not Smith’s size and competence will get him through to the final bell. My guess is yes, perhaps at the price of a rather dull final quarter to the fight. – MATT McGRAIN
I found myself surprised that Canelo Alvarez would jump into the ring with Callum Smith next in what’s basically a short-notice contest for both men. While Alvarez looked great last year when he stopped Sergey Kovalev at 175, Smith is a younger fighter in his prime who has already shown he’s the top fighter at 168. While Smith didn’t look like a world-beater against John Ryder in his last fight, that was probably more a case of him not being super excited about the fight. He’ll most certainly be hyped about facing Alvarez. I think this fight goes all 12 rounds and Alvarez escapes with a majority or split decision win. Alvarez will have trouble getting by Smith’s longer punches and clever boxing, and the Mexican’s volume will be limited enough in return that people can competently argue he lost the fight. Alvarez via debatable decision is my pick. – KELSEY McCARSON
The conventional wisdom is that this fight will mirror Canelo’s fight with Kovalev, a match in which Canelo patiently laid low in the weeds, so to speak, before discombobulating his bigger adversary. But Callum Smith isn’t your generic British pug; talent-wise, he is head and shoulders above any of his three fighting brothers. Granted, Callum was fortunate to get the nod over John Ryder who has a style similar to Canelo and who resembles the Mexican icon from the neck down. Nonetheless, I rate the Scouser a live dog. Smith by MD – ARNE LANG
Canelo finishes strong to win by decision or a late stoppage. – THOMAS HAUSER
Canelo Alvarez UD12: The reason Alvarez is the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet is that he pounds on middleweights, super middleweights and even light heavyweights with equal effectiveness. Liverpool’s Callum Smith is a fine young 168-pounder but he’s in way over his head against the multi-faceted Canelo thus I must predict a wide unanimous call for Alvarez. – JEFF FREEMAN
This potentially is a very good and competitive fight. Canelo Alvarez is arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and Callum Smith is undefeated and just as arguably top 10 P4P material. Neither fighter has ever been stopped, so it’s likely this bout goes the distance. So, who wins? Probably Canelo, and even more so given his quasi-home turf advantage of fighting in San Antonio. The Mexican superstar is coming off a 13-month layoff, however, so there is the possibility of a thin coat of ring rust. Nah, I’m not buying that. Call it Canelo by UD. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ
An all-time great, Alvarez is giving away six inches in height, but is the stronger man. A superb counter-puncher, Canelo will look to cut off the ring and attack the British champion’s body and then work his way upward. Smith hasn’t suffered a loss in 27 fights and has stopped 19 opponents, but none of them were named Alvarez. Canelo has knocked out 36 foes and will stretch that number to 37 when he prevails with an 11th round stoppage. – RICK ASSAD
Smith is a very solid accomplished fighter in the prime of his career. He is a formidable opponent and probably Canelo’s toughest test since the Golovkin rematch. With that said, everything that Smith does well Canelo does better. Smith simply can’t match the speed or power of Canelo and I suspect does not have the chin either that Canelo possesses. With both having been out of the ring for over a year I think we see a slow start to the fight with Canelo picking up the pace in the middle rounds. As the fight progresses Smith will begin to absorb more and more punishment until he finally succumbs late in the fight to a well-placed body shot. Canelo KO 10. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI
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TSS Salutes Thomas Hauser and his Bernie Award Cohorts

The Boxing Writers Association of America has announced the winners of its annual Bernie Awards competition. The awards, named in honor of former five-time BWAA president and frequent TSS contributor Bernard Fernandez, recognize outstanding writing in six categories as represented by stories published the previous year.
Over the years, this venerable website has produced a host of Bernie Award winners. In 2024, Thomas Hauser kept the tradition alive. A story by Hauser that appeared in these pages finished first in the category “Boxing News Story.” Titled “Ryan Garcia and the New York State Athletic Commission,” the story was published on June 23. You can read it HERE.
Hauser also finished first in the category of “Investigative Reporting” for “The Death of Ardi Ndembo,” a story that ran in the (London) Guardian. (Note: Hauser has owned this category. This is his 11th first place finish for “Investigative Reporting”.)
Thomas Hauser, who entered the International Boxing Hall of Fame with the class of 2019, was honored at last year’s BWAA awards dinner with the A.J. Leibling Award for Outstanding Boxing Writing. The list of previous winners includes such noted authors as W.C. Heinz, Budd Schulberg, Pete Hamill, and George Plimpton, to name just a few.
The Leibling Award is now issued intermittently. The most recent honorees prior to Hauser were Joyce Carol Oates (2015) and Randy Roberts (2019).
Roberts, a Distinguished Professor of History at Purdue University, was tabbed to write the Hauser/Leibling Award story for the glossy magazine for BWAA members published in conjunction with the organization’s annual banquet. Regarding Hauser’s most well-known book, his Muhammad Ali biography, Roberts wrote, “It is nearly impossible to overestimate the importance of the book to our understanding of Ali and his times.” An earlier book by Hauser, “The Black Lights: Inside the World of Professional Boxing,” garnered this accolade: “Anyone who wants to understand boxing today should begin by reading ‘The Black Lights’.”
A panel of six judges determined the Bernie Award winners for stories published in 2024. The stories they evaluated were stripped of their bylines and other identifying marks including the publication or website for which the story was written.
Other winners:
Boxing Event Coverage: Tris Dixon
Boxing Column: Kieran Mulvaney
Boxing Feature (Over 1,500 Words): Lance Pugmire
Boxing Feature (Under 1,500 Words): Chris Mannix
The Dixon, Mulvaney, and Pugmire stories appeared in Boxing Scene; the Mannix story in Sports Illustrated.
The Bernie Award recipients will be honored at the forthcoming BWAA dinner on April 30 at the Edison Ballroom in the heart of Times Square. (For more information, visit the BWAA website). Two days after the dinner, an historic boxing tripleheader will be held in Times Square, the logistics of which should be quite interesting. Ryan Garcia, Devin Haney, and Teofimo Lopez share top billing.
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Mekhrubon Sanginov, whose Heroism Nearly Proved Fatal, Returns on Saturday

To say that Mekhrubon Sanginov is excited to resume his boxing career would be a great understatement. Sanginov, ranked #9 by the WBA at 154 pounds before his hiatus, last fought on July 8, 2022.
He was in great form before his extended leave, having scored four straight fast knockouts, advancing his record to 13-0-1. Had he remained in Las Vegas, where he had settled after his fifth pro fight, his career may have continued on an upward trajectory, but a trip to his hometown of Dushanbe, Tajikistan, turned everything haywire. A run-in with a knife-wielding bully nearly cost him his life, stalling his career for nearly three full years.
Sanginov was exiting a restaurant in Dushanbe when he saw a man, plainly intoxicated, harassing another man, an innocent bystander. Mekhrubon intervened and was stabbed several times with a long knife. One of the puncture wounds came perilously close to puncturing his heart.
“After he stabbed me, I ran after him and hit him and caught him to hold for the police,” recollects Sanginov. “There was a lot of confusion when the police arrived. At first, the police were not certain what had happened.
“By the time I got to the hospital, I had lost two liters of blood, or so I was told. After I was patched up, one of the surgeons said to me, ‘Give thanks to God because he gave you a second life.’ It is like I was born a second time.”
“I was in the wrong place at the wrong time. It could have happened in any city,” he adds. (A story about the incident on another boxing site elicited this comment from a reader: “Good man right there. World would be a better place if more folk were willing to step up when it counts.”)
Sanginov first laced on a pair of gloves at age 10 and was purportedly 105-14 as an amateur. Growing up, the boxer he most admired was Roberto Duran. “Muhammad Ali will always be the greatest and [Marvin] Hagler was great too, but Duran was always my favorite,” he says.
During his absence from the ring, Sanginov married a girl from Tajikistan and became a father. His son Makhmud was born in Las Vegas and has dual citizenship. “Ideally,” he says, “I would like to have three more children. Two more boys and the last one a daughter.”
He also put on a great deal of weight. When he returned to the gym, his trainer Bones Adams was looking at a cruiserweight. But gradually the weight came off – “I had to give up one of my hobbies; I love to eat,” he says – and he will be resuming his career at 154. “Although I am the same weight as before, I feel stronger now. Before I was more of a boy, now I am a full-grown man,” says Sanginov who turned 29 in February.
He has a lot of rust to shed. Because of all those early knockouts, he has answered the bell for only eight rounds in the last four years. Concordantly, his comeback fight on Saturday could be described as a soft re-awakening. Sanginov’s opponent Mahonri Montes, an 18-year pro from Mexico, has a decent record (36-10-2, 25 KOs) but has been relatively inactive and is only 1-3-1 in his last five. Their match at Thunder Studios in Long Beach, California, is slated for eight rounds.
On May 10, Ardreal Holmes (17-0) faces Erickson Lubin (26-2) on a ProBox card in Kissimmee, Florida. It’s an IBF super welterweight title eliminator, meaning that the winner (in theory) will proceed directly to a world title fight.
Sanginov will be watching closely. He and Holmes were scheduled to meet in March of 2022 in the main event of a ShoBox card on Showtime. That match fell out when Sanginov suffered an ankle injury in sparring.
If not for a twist of fate, that may have been Mekhrubon Sanginov in that IBF eliminator, rather than Ardreal Holmes. We will never know, but one thing we do know is that Mekhrubon’s world title aspirations were too strong to be ruined by a knife-wielding bully.
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Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis Wins Welterweight Showdown in Atlantic City

In the showdown between undefeated welterweight champions Jaron “Boots Ennis walked away with the victory by technical knockout over Eamantis Stanionis and the WBA and IBF titles on Saturday.
No doubt. Ennis was the superior fighter.
“He’s a great fighter. He’s a good guy,” said Ennis.
Philadelphia’s Ennis (34-0, 30 KOs) faced Lithuania’s Stanionis (15-1, 10 KOs) at demonstrated an overpowering southpaw and orthodox attack in front of a sold-out crowd at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
It might have been confusing but whether he was in a southpaw stance or not Ennis busted the body with power shots and jabbed away in a withering pace in the first two rounds.
Stanionis looked surprised when his counter shots seemed impotent.
In the third round the Lithuanian fighter who trains at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, began using a rocket jab to gain some semblance of control. Then he launched lead rights to the jaw of Ennis. Though Stanionis connected solidly, the Philly fighter was still standing and seemingly unfazed by the blows.
That was a bad sign for Stanionis.
Ennis returned to his lightning jabs and blows to the body and Stanionis continued his marauding style like a Sherman Tank looking to eventually run over his foe. He just couldn’t muster enough firepower.
In the fifth round Stanionis opened up with a powerful body attack and seemed to have Ennis in retreat. But the Philadelphia fighter opened up with a speedy combination that ended with blood dripping from the nose of Stanionis.
It was not looking optimistic for the Lithuanian fighter who had never lost.
Stanionis opened up the sixth round with a three-punch combination and Ennis met him with a combination of his own. Stanionis was suddenly in retreat and Ennis chased him like a leopard pouncing on prey. A lightning five-punch combination that included four consecutive uppercuts delivered Stanionis to the floor for the count. He got up and survived the rest of the round.
After returning shakily to his corner, the trainer whispered to him and then told the referee that they had surrendered.
Ennis jumped in happiness and now holds the WBA and IBF welterweight titles.
“I felt like I was getting in my groove. I had a dream I got a stoppage just like this,” said Ennis.
Stanionis looked like he could continue, but perhaps it was a wise move by his trainer. The Lithuanian fighter’s wife is expecting their first child at any moment.
Meanwhile, Ennis finally proved the expectations of greatness by experts. It was a thorough display of superiority over a very good champion.
“The biggest part was being myself and having a live body in front of me,” said Ennis. “I’m just getting started.”
Matchroom Boxing promoter Eddie Hearn was jubilant over the performance of the Philadelphia fighter.
“What a wonderful humble man. This is one of the finest fighters today. By far the best fighter in the division,” said Hearn. “You are witnessing true greatness.”
Other Bouts
Former featherweight world champion Raymond Ford (17-1-1, 8 KOs) showed that moving up in weight would not be a problem even against the rugged and taller Thomas Mattice (22-5-1, 17 KOs) in winning by a convincing unanimous decision.
The quicksilver southpaw Ford ravaged Mattice in the first round then basically cruised the remaining nine rounds like a jackhammer set on automatic. Four-punch combinations pummeled Mattice but never put him down.
“He was a smart veteran. He could take a hit,” said Ford.
Still, there was no doubt on who won the super featherweight contest. After 10 rounds all three judges gave Ford every round and scored it 100-90 for the New Jersey fighter who formerly held the WBA featherweight title which was wrested from him by Nick Ball.
Shakhram Giyasov (17-0, 10 KOs) made good on a promise to his departed daughter by knocking out Argentina’s Franco Ocampo (17-3, 8 KOs) in their welterweight battle.
Giyasov floored Ocampo in the first round with an overhand right but the Argentine fighter was able to recover and fight on for several more rounds.
In the fourth frame, Giyasov launched a lead right to the liver and collapsed Ocampo with the body shot for the count of 10 at 1:57 of the fourth round.
“I had a very hard camp because I lost my daughter,” Giyasov explained. “I promised I would be world champion.”
In his second pro fight Omari Jones (2-0) needed only seconds to disable William Jackson (13-6-2) with a counter right to the body for a knockout win. The former Olympic medalist was looking for rounds but reacted to his opponent’s actions.
“He was a veteran he came out strong,” said Jones who won a bronze medal in the 2024 Paris Olympics. “But I just stayed tight and I looked for the shot and I landed it.”
After a feint, Jackson attacked and was countered by a right to the rib cage and down he went for the count at 1:40 of the first round in the welterweight contest.
Photo credit: Matchroom
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