Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith: Predictions from Our Community of Writers

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, the biggest draw and the consensus #1 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing, returns to the ring Saturday after a 13 ½ -month absence to oppose undefeated Callum Smith at the San Antonio Alamodome with two 168-pound world title belts at stake. The bout between the two 30-year-old prizefighters headlines a 7-bout card that will air on DAZN in 200+ countries and territories worldwide and on TV Azteca in Mexico.

We invited members of our editorial staff to provide a quick analysis of the match and forecast the outcome. Their prognostications appear below with the respondents listed in reverse alphabetical order.

The graphic is by Colorado comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, a repeat visitor whenever we summon up a “prediction page.” Ayala’s work is attracting a lot of buzz, inflating his workload, and we don’t know how long we will be able to keep him. Check out more of Rob’s cool illustrations at his web site fight posium.

PICKS

Each boxer should be near peak career form so this could be a very good fight in the early going if Smith’s power proves surprising. Still, he’s never faced anyone with credentials like numerous of Canelo’s vanquished opponents so the main question seems to be if or how long Smith can avoid an inevitable stoppage. My guess is eight or nine rounds, but that’s giving Smith’s untested jaw a benefit of the doubt. – PHIL WOOLEVER

Saul Canelo Alvarez (52-1-2) won’t have a walk-over when he fights the undefeated (27-0) and tall (6’3”) Callum “Mundo” Smith on Saturday in San Antonio, but Smith is hardly the toughest opponent that Canelo has faced. The talented redhead should figure out Smith’s big reach and height advantage by the mid-rounds—if not earlier– and win easily going down the stretch using head movement and brutal body work. Alvarez, the veteran here, is at the top of everyone’s list of P4P fighters. That says it all. – TED SARES

Canelo will win, firmly underlining the eternal truth of Levels in Boxing on the way. The quality of the win should not be underestimated despite its inevitability; Smith is rated the best 168lb fighter in the world by both RING and TBRB and his defeat should herald praise. The interesting question is whether or not Smith’s size and competence will get him through to the final bell. My guess is yes, perhaps at the price of a rather dull final quarter to the fight. – MATT McGRAIN

I found myself surprised that Canelo Alvarez would jump into the ring with Callum Smith next in what’s basically a short-notice contest for both men. While Alvarez looked great last year when he stopped Sergey Kovalev at 175, Smith is a younger fighter in his prime who has already shown he’s the top fighter at 168. While Smith didn’t look like a world-beater against John Ryder in his last fight, that was probably more a case of him not being super excited about the fight. He’ll most certainly be hyped about facing Alvarez. I think this fight goes all 12 rounds and Alvarez escapes with a majority or split decision win. Alvarez will have trouble getting by Smith’s longer punches and clever boxing, and the Mexican’s volume will be limited enough in return that people can competently argue he lost the fight. Alvarez via debatable decision is my pick. – KELSEY McCARSON

The conventional wisdom is that this fight will mirror Canelo’s fight with Kovalev, a match in which Canelo patiently laid low in the weeds, so to speak, before discombobulating his bigger adversary. But Callum Smith isn’t your generic British pug; talent-wise, he is head and shoulders above any of his three fighting brothers. Granted, Callum was fortunate to get the nod over John Ryder who has a style similar to Canelo and who resembles the Mexican icon from the neck down. Nonetheless, I rate the Scouser a live dog. Smith by MD – ARNE LANG

Canelo finishes strong to win by decision or a late stoppage. – THOMAS HAUSER

Canelo Alvarez UD12: The reason Alvarez is the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet is that he pounds on middleweights, super middleweights and even light heavyweights with equal effectiveness. Liverpool’s Callum Smith is a fine young 168-pounder but he’s in way over his head against the multi-faceted Canelo thus I must predict a wide unanimous call for Alvarez. – JEFF FREEMAN

This potentially is a very good and competitive fight. Canelo Alvarez is arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and Callum Smith is undefeated and just as arguably top 10 P4P material. Neither fighter has ever been stopped, so it’s likely this bout goes the distance. So, who wins? Probably Canelo, and even more so given his quasi-home turf advantage of fighting in San Antonio. The Mexican superstar is coming off a 13-month layoff, however, so there is the possibility of a thin coat of ring rust. Nah, I’m not buying that. Call it Canelo by UD. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

An all-time great, Alvarez is giving away six inches in height, but is the stronger man. A superb counter-puncher, Canelo will look to cut off the ring and attack the British champion’s body and then work his way upward. Smith hasn’t suffered a loss in 27 fights and has stopped 19 opponents, but none of them were named Alvarez. Canelo has knocked out 36 foes and will stretch that number to 37 when he prevails with an 11th round stoppage. – RICK ASSAD

Smith is a very solid accomplished fighter in the prime of his career. He is a formidable opponent and probably Canelo’s toughest test since the Golovkin rematch. With that said, everything that Smith does well Canelo does better. Smith simply can’t match the speed or power of Canelo and I suspect does not have the chin either that Canelo possesses. With both having been out of the ring for over a year I think we see a slow start to the fight with Canelo picking up the pace in the middle rounds. As the fight progresses Smith will begin to absorb more and more punishment until he finally succumbs late in the fight to a well-placed body shot. Canelo KO 10. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

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