THE WYLIE PICK: Guerrero Over Aydin By Wide Decision

This weigh-in scuffle might be the most luck Aydin has against Guerrero.

Robert Guerrero-Selcuk Aydin:
San Jose, California

12 rounds, for the WBC 147 pound interim title

Televised by Showtime

Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero, 29-1-1 {18 kos} will sample life in the ring asa welterweight for the very first time tonight, leapfrogging the 140 pound division to face unbeaten Turkish fighter Selcuk “Mini-Tyson” Aydin, 23-0 {17 kos}. Guerrero is taking a risk, having only previously fought at lightweight just once before, back in April of last year, earning himself a unanimous decision win over Michael Katsidis while adding the interim WBA and WBO 135 pound titles in the process. To put things into perspective, should Guerrero win, he will be joining an illustrious set of fighters, containing the likes of Roberto Duran, Pernell Whitaker and Shane Mosley, as former lightweights who have stepped up to claim a welterweight title. What would be even more impressive for Guerrero is that he would be the first to do so, without having first swam in deeper divisional waters. Both Duran and Mosley fought at 147 pounds prior to winning their respective championships whereas Whitaker initially spent time campaigning at 140 pounds before his venture into the 147 pound division. Add to this the fact that Guerrero is coming back from a long lay-off, due to a serious shoulder injury, not to mention his opponent at hand, a natural at the weight and who is also a notoriously big puncher, and you get an idea as to just how much Robert Guerrero will be up against it once the opening bell sounds.

Or will he?

Simply put, I think Robert Guerrero wins this fight. Going one step further, I believe Guerrero, with THE perfect opponent in front of him in Selcuck Aydin, could win this fight comfortably. Let's compare the two fighters. At 5 ft 8ins, and with a 70ins reach {which is large even by welterweight standards} Guerrero, a southpaw, operates best boxing at range, utilizing his superior reach to keep opponents on the end of the jab before flummoxing them with quick, multi-punch combinations. By comparison, at 5ft 7ins, and with a 65ins reach, Aydin {relatively small in stature for the division} is at his best working at mid-range, throwing short punches -namely right and left hooks. Even though Guerrero is the fighter moving up in weight, I believe he's the one who holds the physical advantages, especially when it translates into how both fighters function in the ring.

In terms of how the fight will play out, I think it could end up being pretty straight-forward for Guerrero. Aydin is the type of fighter who only lets his hands go once his opponent has stopped throwing. Unlike his namesake, this “Tyson” lacks the ability to counter. During his prime, Mike Tyson was able to come forward in his peek-a-boo high guard defense, and simultaneously slip and counter.Mike Tyson had the ability to end a fight while his opponent was on offense. This is the area in which Aydin is flawed. The transition between offense and defense for him is a painstakingly slow one. Aydin's defense consists of him coming forward behind his high guard,catching punches on his gloves and forearms. Only after his opponent has stopped throwing does Aydin then attempt to launch any offense.

Undoubtedly, Robert Guerrero is among the best volume punchers in the sport. Guerrero is able to string together three's and four's in quick succession, before pivoting off to the side where he then resets and repeats. Guerrero's punch output is very high.This, I believe,will be Aydin's biggest obstacle as I can see him having a tough time finding the time to let his hands go. Think back to Arthur Abraham against Carl Froch or Winky Wright against Paul Williams. On both occasions, the fighter that was subdued by superior volume had a difficult time getting off. With Abraham, Froch's lengthy jab and movement was to blame, whereas with Wright, Williams' output, southpaw angles and variety were the traits that kept Wright in defensive mode all evening. Robert Guerrero possesses all of the above and more. He's a southpaw, throws multiple punches, has great length on his jab and moves intelligently, off at angles, around the ring.

Despite what we've been lead to believe, Aydin could be the fighter who's at a disadvantage here, not Guerrero.

There's no doubting that Aydin can hurt Guerrero. Aydin is clearly a big hitter, especially with the southpaw's kryptonite, the right hand, and Guerrero's chin has caused concern before even against smaller opposition. Nevertheless, I believe Guerrero has the perfect opponent in front of him. Even forgetting about strategy for a moment,a quick glance at the opposition on their resumes suggests that there could be a significant gulf in quality here. Michael Katsidis, Joel Casamayor and Orlando Salido are vastly superior to anything Aydin has faced so far, regardless of their condition at the time, and the weight in which the fights took place.

There's chance that maybe I'm not paying enough attention to the increase in weight for Guerrero, or thats he's also coming back from a long lay-off. There's also a chance that some aren't paying enough attention to the respective styles of the two combatants. Or maybe that this weigh-in mini-scuffle lights a fire under Aydin, and propels him to fight the fight of his life.

Prediction:

I'm of the opinion that Guerrero will come out using his jab, taking full advantage of his superior reach. Aydin, in his high guard, will be pursuing early, looking to shorten the distance. Guerrero's straighter and more precise punching, along with his ability to side step an oncoming attack, will negate any looping shots from Aydin. As a result,Aydin will be spending far too much time covering up –this will be the story of the fight.

Guerrero will be throwing combinations high and low, then sliding off at angles, not allowing Aydin to set himself. I believe it will be a case of rinse and repeat as the fight wears on. Aydin will be thoroughly outworked. As the fight heads towards the later stages, look for Guerrero to be threading his uppercut through the middle of Aydin's guard.Should Guerrero's speed and power travel up with him, the fight could be over before the final bell. This Tyson,as was the case with a more famous one of old, is not effective once he's backed up. If Guerrero is able to press the attack later on,putting Aydin on the back foot, which is a possible scenario in my eyes, then Guerrero will be in with a chance of not only making history by becoming the first lightweight to jump straight to welterweight and win a title, but by doing so by knockout.

There isn't a more monotonous saying in boxing than the old styles make fights. While the constant echoing of it may grow old, it's meaning on the other hand, never will. Not in this sport. Styles, more-so than any other aspect, are the first thing I look at when dissecting fights. It's for this very reason that I think Robert Guerrero will defeat Selcuk Aydin without really having to assert himself. I don't see a life and death type of affair occurring here.

Robert Guerrero will win a wide unanimous decision.

A B-level, one-dimensional hook artist who spends too much time looking to land his money punch should be trumped by a superior B+ level technician, who can keep said fighter in his defensive shell using volume, angles, precision and length.

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