Kovalev Seeks Rare Chance at Redemption against Alvarez

Four of the most iconic fighters in boxing history had to do it and they did. Joe Louis’ career hinged on it, Sugar Ray Robinson did it against his career rival and so did Muhammad Ali and Sugar Ray Leonard, and that’s exact revenge over the first fighter to beat them. Had Louis not defeated Max Schmeling, had Robinson lost again to Jake LaMotta, had Ali  tripped again over Joe Frazier’s left hook and had Leonard not boxed smartly instead of brawling with Roberto Duran in their rematch, their legacies would be entirely diminished and different today for obvious reasons.

Seldom do fighters fail in the rematch against the first fighter to beat them and then get a chance to revitalize their career if they can beat the second man to defeat them. Well, that’s exactly what former two-time light heavyweight title holder Sergey Kovalev 32-3-1 (28) will be confronted with when he meets up again with Eleider Alvarez 24-0 (12). As widely reported, Kovalev will be exercising the clause in his contract that stipulated if he lost to Alvarez when they met on August 4th, he had the right to an immediate rematch. Kovalev-Alvarez II is tentatively scheduled for this coming February.

Kovalev was up on all three judges’ cards (58-56 and 59-55 twice) going into the seventh round when he was dropped three times and stopped at the 2:45 mark, suffering his third career setback to only the second fighter to defeat him. It seems almost a lifetime ago when Kovalev was often listed among the top five pound for pound fighters in boxing heading into his showdown with another pound for pound stalwart, Andre Ward. That was back in November of 2016 and the clash with Ward was seen pretty much by all as a pick’em going in. The bout went the distance and Kovalev lost a somewhat controversial unanimous decision (I had Kovalev winning by a single point) and since then the wheels seem to have come off regarding his career. When they met seven months later Ward was better and adjusted his attack, working Sergey’s body and rough housing him, and in the eyes of many he exposed a fatal flaw in Kovalev, namely that he seems to come unglued when things turn against him and he must fight through adversity.

Ward stopped Kovalev in the eighth round of the rematch with Ward up slightly on two of the cards with the third favoring Kovalev by a point. Instead of disappearing, Kovalev fought five months later and won a regional belt stopping Vyacheslav Shabranskyy in the second round and followed that up four months later stopping Igor Mikhalkin in the seventh round to win the WBO light heavyweight title. In his first defense, he risked his title against Alvarez.

Favored at odds as high as 6/1, Kovalev started slowly but came on starting in the third and had a big fourth that had Eleider covering up in retreat. During the fifth and sixth rounds, in spite of not looking like the killer he was pre-Ward, he seemed to hit his stride and was controlling the fight….however, Alvarez was occasionally beating him to the punch with his accurately placed one-twos. Then in the seventh round Alvarez dropped Kovalev with a big right to the temple over Kovalev’s low left. Kovalev took the mandatory eight-count and was quickly dropped again with a left-hook to the face. Again he beat the count but was on unsteady legs and as soon as he resumed fighting Alvarez cuffed him with a right and short left hook combo that had him down again and the bout was correctly stopped.

Kovalev no doubt rationalizes the loss as just getting caught like so many other fighters of his caliber before him. He’ll no doubt focus on the fact he was winning and that in boxing anyone can get caught, but it isn’t quite that simple. And in Sergey’s case the mental aspect is every bit as much a factor as the physical part.

After realizing by the end of their first fight that Andre Ward wasn’t intimidated by him and then actually being bullied by Ward in the rematch, Kovalev’s mental cloak of invincibility was shattered. We saw that happen with Mike Tyson after Buster Douglas and with Roy Jones after being knocked out by Antonio Tarver in their rematch. In Kovalev’s case, he appeared to be on the right track in his two bouts after his second defeat to Ward, but then again he wasn’t fighting elite opposition.

Against Alvarez he took a few clean shots early but again settled into fighting his fight. But when he couldn’t really put any hurt on Eleider during the fourth and into the fifth round, he seemed to lose a step and whenever Alvarez landed clean, you could see Sergey was trying to shield that he was bothered by it and felt it wasn’t happening by accident or luck. And once he was dropped by the first big right hand you knew he’d never survive. And having experienced that, the mountain will be tougher to scale in the rematch. Gone is the myth he forced on himself after the second Ward clash that it was a quick stoppage and the referee was against him. He knows Alvarez beat him and he can’t lie to himself about it.

What makes his task so monumental this time is the same thing he had to overcome against Ward for their rematch, and that is stylistically Kovalev can only fight one way and he can’t change that and making things worse is that Alvarez knows it. In order to deliver his power, Sergey must dictate the fight, pushing the action forward. Ward used that against him and there’s no doubt Alvarez will too the second time around.

Kovalev’s problem is one that all attackers have when they finally run into an opponent who makes them pay too big a price for their aggression. Sergey’s lack of good head and upper-body movement and refusal to clinch makes him an easy target – couple that with Alvarez’s clearly faster hands and it unfolds with Sergey getting hit too much and too cleanly on the way in. And once he processes that he’ll have to come in more measured, that’s when Alvarez, no longer being under duress, can really sit down on his shots and unload on Kovalev.

Whenever an attacker faces a fighter who makes the price of getting inside too steep, and the attacker can’t change things up, the rematch is usually a rerun of the first encounter. As I often say, all the attacker can do is bring more of what didn’t work the first time. And now Alvarez knows he can change the fight with one shot and Kovalev knows he couldn’t end it when Alvarez was in trouble during the fourth round of their last fight. Also, there’s the question of Kovalev’s discipline and training habits and they may have already taken their toll and depleted him physically at age 35.

Unlike Louis, Robinson, Ali and Leonard, Kovalev lacks stylistic versatility. Alvarez is a better technician than Kovalev, and when the better technician wins the first time, seldom can the perceived puncher adjust and be a different beast in the rematch.

With Kovalev’s confidence eroded and him not being able to adjust to Alvarez’s style, it’s hard to paint a positive scenario for him. If he were to pull it off against an even more confident Alvarez in the rematch, he will have redeemed himself and his career lives on. But if he can’t, his legacy of being one of the more feared fighters of his era will most likely be forgotten….if it hasn’t been already.

Sergey Kovalev is in a tough spot. This is a fight he had no choice but to take. He’s run out of other chances; it’s not worth Kathy Duva’s while to give him any more confidence-builders. His marketability is shot and the only way to restore it is with a solid win over Alvarez.

Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com

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