Three Bold Predictions for 2019

THREE PUNCH COMBO: In the final edition of “the combo” for 2018, I will get the crystal ball out and look ahead with three bold predictions for the upcoming year.

Bold Prediction One – Manny Pacquiao-Errol Spence Will Be The Biggest Event of 2019

When Manny Pacquiao added Al Haymon as his advisor late in 2018, it was widely assumed in the industry that this would facilitate a big money rematch with Floyd Mayweather Jr. sometime in 2019. While this is certainly possible, I see a different course for Pacquiao, at least in the near term.

First of all, if Mayweather wants the Pacquiao rematch then it will happen. And Mayweather will unquestionably be watching Pacquiao’s upcoming bout with Adrien Broner on January 19^th with vested interest. But I think after Mayweather watches Pacquiao-Broner that he will sour on the idea of facing Pacquiao later this year.

As we all know, styles make fights. Stylistically, I think Broner is the perfect opponent for Pacquiao at this point in his career. As a matter of fact, I would go as far as stating that Pacquiao is going to look close to the 2009 version of himself in this fight. Why? Broner is frankly a lazy fighter. He fights only in spots. Even a 40-year-old Pacquiao can easily out-work and out-hustle him.

But there is more. Broner also makes a lot of defensive mistakes and despite his lengthy history in the ring has never corrected these flaws. He does not move his head and often squares up to his opponents, making him an easy target to hit clean. Plus when he does let his hands go, he stands and poses after throwing. allowing himself to be easily countered.

Much like Marcos Maidana, Shawn Porter and Mikey Garcia exposed Broner’s flaws, so will Pacquiao. His hand speed and dazzling combinations will be on full display; PacMan will look sensational. And this will be cause for some concern for Mayweather who as we all know selects his opposition very carefully.

With Mayweather waffling, Haymon will be forced to look at other options. With Errol Spence in need of big name opponents, expect Haymon to look to make a super fight between Spence and Pacquiao later this year.

Of course, this assumes Spence beats Mikey Garcia in March. While I don’t think this will be an easy fight for Spence, it is one that I do see him ultimately winning. With Spence’s growing reputation and a win against Garcia under his cap, it will be tough to entice other top welterweights to face him unless they are heavily compensated. If someone is going to be heavily compensated to face Spence, they better bring a large audience with them. There is one fighter that could fit that criteria and that is Pacquiao.

Pacquiao-Spence would draw a lot of attention and sell big on pay-per-view. And for all these reasons, I expect the fight will happen.

Bold Prediction Two – Andre Ward Returns to Face the Winner of Alvarez-Kovalev II

Andre Ward is going to make a return to the ring. His cryptic social media posts as well as discussions with boxing media this past year can lead to no other conclusion.

But at what weight class will he return and whom will he fight? I speculated earlier this year that he could test the waters as a heavyweight. However, I now feel a return to the light heavyweight division seems more likely given recent happenings in the sport. And his opponent could very well be the winner of the February 2^nd rematch between Eleider Alvarez and Sergey Kovalev.

Follow me here for a second before dismissing this notion. ESPN and Top Rank purchased the rights to the Alvarez-Kovalev rematch despite not having a promotional tie to either fighter at the time (although Top Rank did eventually sign Alvarez to a co-promotional deal). This raised some eyebrows in the industry. Clearly, ESPN and Top Rank had something in mind down the road in purchasing this fight.

Ward currently serves as an analyst for ESPN. He is a very sharp person with a bright mind for the sport.  The tail end of Ward’s career was managed brilliantly from a risk versus reward perspective and no doubt Ward had plenty of input as to how his affairs were handled.

In a comeback bid, Ward will look to maximize financial value while mitigating risk in a similar manner to how his career was managed leading up to his initial retirement. And given his relationship with ESPN/Top Rank, it would be fully expected that a Ward comeback would take place under their banner.

Thus, facing the winner of Alvarez-Kovalev II makes perfect sense. From Ward’s prospective, he’d be returning to face an opponent whom he’d be favored to defeat while making a very nice payday. If it is Kovalev there is a natural rivalry to sell as well as the controversies from each of the two fights.

ESPN and Top Rank have been looking to get into the pay-per-view market. An Andre Ward comeback against with Alvarez or Kovalev would sell and be the perfect way to test the pay-per-view waters.

Bold Prediction Three – Promoters and TV Networks Play A Bit Nicer With One Another In 2019

In 2018, we saw more events compete directly with one another for eyeballs than I can ever recall. Granted, a lot of that had to do with an unprecedented amount of live boxing that was available on either traditional television networks or live streaming services. With promoters having to fill so much air time, I guess some overlapping of fight cards was inevitable.

However, common sense dictates that whenever eyeballs are split between competing cards everyone loses. My guess is that at some point in 2019 we see promoters and TV networks begin to work together to alleviate this problem.

Top Rank and Golden Boy set the blueprint in 2018 for one way promoters can work with instead of against one another when they each have televised shows. On May 12^th, Top Rank and ESPN moved up the start time of their card so the main event between Vasyl Lomachenko and Jorge Linares did not interfere with the start of Golden Boy’s card on HBO. Fans were able to watch the main fights on both cards and eyeballs were not split so everyone won. Granted, this was a unique situation but at the very least this did provide a blueprint for how promoters can work together on such matters in the future.

Also, I see a scenario in 2019 where a deal is cut between major platforms to avoid competing cards. I don’t know who will do it but again it is to everyone’s benefit not to split eyeballs. Maybe Top Rank/ESPN cuts a deal with PBC or DAZN. Or PBC and DAZN come to some sort of an agreement. With so much money involved, business interests will at some point supersede the egos of the various parties. It is just common sense. And in 2019, I think we see rival promoters and networks come together at times to coordinate events for everyone’s mutual benefit.

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