Three Punch Combo: An Elite Prospect in Martinez, Potential April Upsets and More

THREE PUNCH COMBO — ShoBox returns on Friday from Las Vegas with an excellent tripleheader headlined by 122-pound prospect Angelo Leo (16-0, 8 KO’s) who takes on Neil Tabanao (17-4, 11 KO’s). While I like the main event and am interested to see the continued development of Leo, it is one of the undercard fights that particularly piques my interest.

Xavier Martinez (13-0, 9 KO’s), a 21-year-old 130-pound prospect, takes a big step up in class when he takes on veteran John Vincent Moralde (21-2, 11 KO’s) in the co-feature.

In my estimation, Martinez (pictured) is an elite prospect. There is a lot to like about him and he passes the eye test.

By nature, Martinez is an aggressive boxer-puncher. He likes to work behind a powerful stiff  left jab. The way he commits to throwing the jab is impressive for a fighter his age and this is a punch he lands with a high degree of accuracy.

Behind that jab, Martinez will work heavy handed combinations to the head and body. What impresses me most when watching him is the fluidity with how he throws his combinations. And much like the work he does with his jab, Martinez is very accurate when delivering his power shots.

Defensively, Martinez moves his head well but does have a flaw in which he sometimes comes forward with his left hand low. This has led to him being clipped on occasion.

Make no mistake, Moralde is no pushover and could provide the first test for the young Martinez. Last May, Moralde sprung a mild upset against then undefeated Ismail Muwendo and will look to repeat that feat against Martinez.

Moralde likes to counterpunch. He is often content to sit back and wait for his openings. He has quick hands as well as quick reflexes, so when openings do appear, he is quick to jump on them. In particular, Moralde possesses a very good left hook that when landed clean can do damage.

Moralde is the type of veteran that can expose any and all mistakes of less seasoned fighters. As such, he makes for an intriguing test for the up-and-coming Martinez. This is a classic ShoBox fight and I am very interested in seeing just how it plays out.

 April Upsets

 We saw plenty of upsets in the sport in the first quarter of the year. April is loaded with several big fights and I suspect we see a few more upsets this month. With that in mind, here are two spots for potential upsets.

Danny Garcia vs. Adrian Granados

 On April 20^th, welterweight Danny Garcia (34-2, 20 KO’s) looks to bounce back from his defeat to Shawn Porter last September when he faces veteran Adrian Granados (20-6-2, 14 KO’s). While many are overlooking Granados in this spot, he certainly has the ability to spring the upset.

As we all know, styles make fights. And simply put, the style of Granados could be problematic for Garcia.

Garcia is a classic boxer-puncher. He is also a very good counterpuncher. But he is not a volume puncher. Rather, he selectively picks his spots. Yes he is accurate when he lets his hands go but he can be out-hustled which is why he has been involved in so many close decisions throughout his career.

Granados is an aggressive pressure fighter. He may not be a big puncher but he will throw a high volume of punches. Granados can get hit but has shown to have a world class chin. His style, chin and relentless determination have given many top fighters fits.

Granados can out-hustle Garcia. This fight could resemble the Mauricio Herrera fight for Garcia back in 2014. Many boxing experts thought Garcia got out-hustled that night by a fighter with a somewhat similar style to Granados and was given a nice gift on the scorecards. Will Danny Garcia be so fortunate this time around?

Srisakat Sor Rungvisai vs. Juan Francisco Estrada

 In a highly anticipated rematch of their 2018 slugfest that ended in a draw, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai (47-4-1, 41 KO’s) takes on Juan Francisco Estrada (38-3, 26 KO’s) for Sor Rungvisai’s 115-pound title.

I like Estrada in this spot. First off, I thought Estrada edged out the first fight. But the main reason I see him winning the rematch is that I think he is the more well-rounded fighter who can make the necessary adjustments to perform better.

Sor Rungvisai, who possesses thudding power in both hands, knows only one way to fight; he comes forward applying pressure and looking to brawl. But defensively he is very limited.

Estrada can box as well as slug. I think in the first fight he was baited into slugging more than boxing. In the rematch, he can make the adjustment to box from the outside, using his jab more, and expose Sor Rungvisai’s defensive liabilities.

The rematch between Sergey Kovalev and Eleider Alvarez showed what can happen when the necessary adjustments are made. For Estrada, making a committed effort to box the one-dimensional Sor Rungvisai should result in a wide decision victory.

It’s Too Soon for Lomachenko-Lopez

 Teofimo Lopez (12-0, 10 KO’s) continues to make overtures about fighting unified lightweight champion Vasyl Lomachenko (12-1, 9 KO’s). But that does not seem to be a wise idea at this time.

With a combination of natural speed, athleticism and power that is rarely seen in this sport, the 21-year-old Lopez seems destined for superstardom. And with so much talent there is little doubt he could beat Lomachenko right now. But taking that fight now would be a huge risk for him as can be seen in the example of David Reid.

Reid was once talked about in much the same way that Lopez is talked about today. Shortly after winning a world title, a still relatively green Reid took a massive step up in competition to take on Felix Trinidad.

Trinidad was in the prime of a Hall of Fame career. It was a big risk for Reid, but those involved in his career had so much confidence in his talent that they believed he was ready for the big fight.

Reid ended up giving a valiant effort. Reid even put Trinidad on the canvas in the third round. But as the fight progressed, the more seasoned Trinidad began unleashing a ferocious beating on Reid whose natural talent against less seasoned and much less skilled fighters had masked his shortcomings.

In the end, Reid took such a vicious beating that the fight essentially ended his career. Yes there were other issues, notably a recurring eye injury, but the beating from Trinidad played a big factor in Reid’s quick downfall.

Lopez and his team should take note of what happened to David Reid. Teofimo still needs more seasoning before he is ready for Lomachenko. While it is certainly possible that Lopez could defeat Lomachenko right now, if things don’t go well his blossoming career could come crashing to an end.

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