The TSS Prediction Page Returns with Picks and Analyses of Canelo vs Kovalev

Whenever there is a big fight with a high level of intrigue, we survey members of our writing community to get their thoughts. Saturday’s fight in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev for Kovalev’s WBO title certainly qualifies. Under the old (and not yet quite dead) economic model, this would have been a pay-per view fight. Instead, it will be live-streamed in the United States and throughout most of the world to DAZN subscribers.

As is our custom, we our listing our panelists alphabetically, but this time with the exception that the editor has pulled rank and reserved the right to go last. The graphic is by Colorado comic book cover artist ROB AYALA whose work is attracting a lot of buzz. Ayala’s specialty is combat sports. Check out more of his work at his web site fight posium.

PREDICTIONS

Everybody knows Kovalev has two major susceptibilities. Body punching and endurance. But people do forget that Kovalev has excellent overall and underrated boxing skills. I see Kovalev giving Canelo trouble in the first six rounds. But Kovalev’s susceptibilities can’t be overlooked and I see him fading badly in the second half of the fight. This contest ultimately will be a mirror image of Ward-Kovalev II. Canelo TKO 8. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

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Saul Alvarez might be the best pound-for-pound boxer working today and on November 2 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, he will seize Sergey Kovalev’s World Boxing Organization’s light heavyweight belt. It won’t be easy, but Alvarez will emerge with a split decision victory because he’s too strong and too wise. – RICK ASSAD

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This fight reminds me of Roy Jones Jr.’s challenge of the much larger WBA heavyweight champion, John Ruiz. RJJ figured — and he was proven correct — that his skill level was so superior to Ruiz’s that the size differential wouldn’t matter much. As boxing’s premier cash cow, Canelo, DAZN and Golden Boy all had to figure he has to be similarly better than an older, naturally bigger and perhaps diminished Kovalev, who, as we learned from his fights with Andre Ward, doesn’t much like getting hit to the body. My call: Canelo by unanimous decision, whereupon he moves right back down to middleweight. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

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Canelo Alvarez has a knack for winning competitive fights against good fighters. Don’t expect that to change against Sergey Kovalev at light heavy. Canelo will probably eat some hard punches but the work he does on the inside will have a greater effect on Kovalev’s momentum. All things being close to equal, it’s Kovalev giving ground and Canelo stepping forward to claim and defend it. Canelo close UD. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

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While Alvarez is indeed taking a calculated risk in moving up to light heavyweight, most of the data (beyond the size difference) supports Alvarez winning the fight. Alvarez is still just 29 years old, which is kind of amazing if you think about all that he’s already accomplished. Kovalev is seven years older, in clear decline, and has lost three of his last seven fights. Still, I think it’s a really close fight where Kovalev’s jab gives Alvarez real issues. I like Alvarez via majority decision in a fight many people think could have gone either way. – KELSEY McCARSON

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History appears to be against Alvarez, but as always, the diminishing value of “world” titles has a role to play here. Canelo isn’t stepping up to take on the very best light-heavyweight in the world – that’s Artur Beterbiev. Still, knocking off one of the top men in a weight division so far removed from that in which a 5’8 fighter like Alvarez belongs would be so impressive I hesitate to pick him. But I do pick him. Disaster might unfold at any moment for the Mexican but I think he’ll struggle through to win one on the cards. His timing is good here, the sense that Kovalev is ready to be taken has been growing. The key round in this fight might be thrilling. – MATT McGRAIN

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No doubt, Canelo Alvarez will be the smaller man — and the lesser puncher — when he enters the ring against light heavyweight titleholder Sergey Kovalev on Saturday. But Alvarez will definitely be the fresher of the two. He is also the more well-rounded fighter, and that may be the only key difference of what figures to be a coin-flip fight. Look for Kovalev to have some success early on with his jab, but expect Alvarez to make adjustments, administering punishing counters to the head and body. Alvarez by UD – SEAN NAM

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Since Canelo is at the top of my current P4P list and the Russian is nowhere in sight, this one is not all that difficult. The fight will be pretty even during the first three feel-out rounds and then Canelo will start launching deadly left hooks upstairs and to the body in rapid combinations. Krusher will begin to break down around the 8th or 9^th, at which point Canelo will pick his spots with damaging work, especially downstairs. Kovalev, unable to contend with Canelo’s defensive skills, will either get knocked out late or lose by dominant UD. – TED SARES

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I’m going with the younger Canelo on the basis of age, wear and tear. He seems to be improving while, with seven years more mileage, Kovalev has faded from his days as a monster. The wild card could be how much weight Sergey adds after the weigh-in, and if the proportional bulk throws Alvarez off his game plan. A very intriguing match. – PHIL WOOLEVER

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I respect the opinions of our savvy TSS wordsmiths, but I am compelled to play devil’s advocate and take the road less traveled, mindful that the world’s best sports gamblers are contrarians. In his rematch with Eleider Alvarez, Kovalev looked like a different fighter than he was in their first encounter. In his last start against Anthony Yarde, a big puncher, he was nearly bombed out in the eighth round but kept his composure and regained the upper hand. What these two fights have in common is Hall of Fame trainer Buddy McGirt, who hadn’t previously worked with Kovalev. In a close fight, Krusher prevails, rejuvenating the hoary adage that a good big man will always beat a good little man – ARNE LANG

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