Khalid Yafai and Roman Gonzalez Meet at the Crossroads in Texas

While the big sell from this weekend’s Texas card is unquestionably the Mikey Garcia-Jessie Vargas fight, it is the chief support from the undercard that most intrigues. The veteran and former pound-for-pound king Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez, unquestionably sliding down from a very high peak, meets Kal Yafai, a belt-holder but one who treads the foothills. It is as clearly defined as a crossroads fight can be.

Yafai, a good-looking and clear-spoken British fighter of Yemeni extraction, came to prominence in a genuinely exceptional performance against another veteran in Luis Concepcion, a storied and seasoned fighter who he completely outclassed over twelve in late 2016. Since, he has taken the traditional path of an inexperienced fighter who has come by an alphabet trinket, meeting a series of fringe and borderline contenders in mandatory contests against opponents of moderate status. And to be fair to him, for the most part he has looked the part.

For the most part.

Fleet-footed and armed with a very fine jab, Yafai has added, at contendership level, a whistling lead right that complements a rather lovely left hook to the body. On Saturday he is to be presented with something a little different.

Roman Gonzalez has made a living out of forcing tactical errors and overwhelming ignoring tactical acumen both, punishing opposition planning, whether good or bad. There has been perhaps nobody in my lifetime in boxing so adept at turning a fighter’s own style against him. When fighters ran from him, he bulldozed them with momentum. When fighters stood with him, he out-hit them with some of the most succinct and brutal combination punching in the sport; he kept company, at his absolute apex, with Manny Pacquiao. When fighters box-punched or mixed styles it was he who suddenly seemed fluid rather than wrought.

Roman, for a spell, was the best fighter in the world, one of the finest sportsmen on his continent and a national hero to his Nicaraguan people. Then, and very nearly all at once, it all came clattering down.

I’m aware it’s irritating when boxing writers congratulate themselves on their own predictions, but this one is worth it I think: years before Roman was thought of by what we’ll call the mainstream boxing press, I predicted that he would be a future pound-for-pound number one, but I also predicted that his eventual downfall would be at the hands of an aggressive southpaw, perhaps up at 115lbs. A decade later, Roman’s fantastic multi-divisional reign was brought to a juddering halt by aggressive southpaw superfly Wisaksil Wangek (aka Srisaket Sor Rungvisai).

Another thing I predicted at that time: for Roman Gonzalez, there would be no meaningful second act.

All these years later that sense has deepened as Roman began to find himself rendered upon the wrong side of history. Nicaraguan politics has and will remain beyond the auspices of The Sweet Science – for all that I credit our readership with an attention span above and beyond the 2020 median, there is a limit. Suffice to say that his personal problems have rather dwarfed his professional ones.

He did come back though, a whole year after his loss to Wangek and looked competent if a little puffy at what is a heavy weight division for him, ten pounds north of the 105lbs he cut his teeth in.  The victim was Moises Fuentes and I wrote of that fight that while Roman was “perhaps not quite back, [he was] certainly warming up…and if the division isn’t trembling, it can at least be said to have thrown a quick look over its shoulder.”

If the division did look, and then looked again, it eventually just went about its business as Roman’s fight camp was once again enveloped in silence. A year passed and after a brief tune-up in a glorified exhibition it was announced that he would duel old foe and world champion Juan Francisco Estrada who gave Roman perhaps his toughest fight of his prime years. It was a thrilling proposition, so when Estrada withdrew with an injury, I was miserable. Then Kal Yafai stepped in.

Yafai, ranked the #4 superfly (behind a devastating line up of kingpin Estrada, Wangek, Kazuto Ioka and Jerwin Ancajas), has always been the fight I most wanted Roman, who is ranked #5, to take. It’s a winnable contest for both with a fascinating undertone of the generational clash despite the fact that Yafai, at thirty, is actually only two years younger than Roman. Their respective records of 26-0 and 48-2 tell the true story.

History says we favor the fresher man in this situation, but there are other factors at play here. As stated, Yafai, who himself names this the fight he most desires, has mostly looked the part against ostensibly weaker opposition, and he has. But in late 2018 he had a scare, against Israel Gonzalez out in Monte Carlo. Israel was underrated by the WBA who named him the #14 contender to Yafai’s title making him both a valid defense and a supposed soft touch, an interesting insight into both the failings of an alphabet ranking organization and the complacency such failings can bring. Yafai, perhaps, did not pay Israel the respect he deserved.

What most struck about Yafai’s performance in the first half of that fight, in an underwhelming venue before a small, underwhelmed audience, is how it drifted. He “did boxing”. He moved; he threw his hands; but he appeared to have no underpinning strategy with which to carve out his victory.

He looked more purposeful in the middle to late rounds but continued to absorb punches to the body at a surprising rate though at least in support of a concrete plan, using his jab to bring him inside. Watching this fight of two halves, I felt sure Roman would have his number if ever the two should meet.

Boxing without a concrete plan against Roman Gonzalez is like sitting on your front lawn in a deckchair during clement weather and waiting for lightning to strike: both stupid and pointless.  Even men who have arrived in his ring with detailed accountancy for what they want to do in every minute of the round, world class fighters like Akira Yaegashi and Francisco Rodriguez, have struggled. Men who approach the fight seeking to riff adaptions have been mercilessly butchered.

There is no question of Yafai approaching Roman Gonzalez as casually as he approached Israel Gonzalez but watching him follow Israel around the ring I was struck by his lack of a defining identity, something denied him, perhaps, by a defining fight. This clash is a defining fight but is it possible it comes too soon for Yafai?

This is arguable, though in honesty it is only arguable due to the stage of his career at which Roman finds himself. He’s older now and has suffered at the hands both of savage southpaws, and life. He wears both markers on his face. He is a hangdog version of the youthful warrior that crashed through four divisions in the past fifteen years; still dangerous, still strong, but notably smaller than his natural superfly opponent and notably slower than his 2010 self.  Yafai, meanwhile, is faster of jab (if not of combination) than Gonzalez ever was and has the feet to at least survive the juggernaut that was “Chocolatitito” best-for-best.

A Yafai victory would be best for boxing. That is undeniable. Even if Gonzalez winds it back, he can’t go on much longer.

And I don’t think he will wind it back; but I will predict he will win, not in a stretching of the years but in a straight-up mugging of a marginally superior opponent. Worn-down fighters have been worn by punches. Those punches teach hard lessons. I don’t think Roman has the power at the poundage to deliver a knockout, but I think he has the experience to steal enough rounds on the scorecards to poach a decision.

A late fade might exclude him, but a victory for the older, smaller, slower man is this slower, older writer’s prediction.

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