The Official TSS Pacquiao-Ugas Prediction Page

Manny Pacquiao, in the fashion of the late Muhammad Ali, has become a global superstar, a man who has transcended his sport. No matter the opponent or title at risk, a Pacquiao fight is a major event. Saturday’s match in Las Vegas between “Senator PacMan” and Yordenis Ugas will overshadow all other sporting events this weekend.

Whenever a really big fight comes down the pike, we invite our panel of writers to share their thoughts. The respondents are listed alphabetically.

RICK ASSAD — Saturday’s clash between Manny Pacquiao and Yordenis Ugas will be a sprightly-fought affair. Pacquiao is 42 and isn’t what he once was, but will carry the night against the 35-year-old Cuban, who stepped in for Errol Spence Jr. An eight-division king, Pacquiao has a three-fight winning streak that includes victories over Lucas Matthysse, Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman, and will make it four in a row despite giving up seven years in age, three inches in height and two inches in reach.
The fight will go the full 12 and Pacquiao, based on overall activity and a late knockdown, will prevail. PACQUIAO UD.

BERNARD FERNANDEZ — I’ve been a Manny partisan ever since I saw him take apart Ledwaba so many years ago. I knew then he could become something truly special, and he has matched and even exceeded my wildest expectations. That said, Father Time is the opponent no fighter, even a great one like Pacquiao, can outpoint indefinitely. Remove any trace of sentiment from the equation and I was prepared to pick Spence, with some assistance from the natural laws of diminishing returns, to score a UD over the Fab Filipino, and maybe even win inside the distance. Ugas for sure is no day at the beach, but I think Pacquiao’s margin for error is not quite as narrow now. I’m going with the senator to launch his campaign to be president of the Philippines with a victory. PACQUIAO MD.

JEFFREY FREEMAN – Verily, verily I predict that Manny Pacquiao will defeat substitute opponent Yordenis Ugas. The Cuban underdog will be motivated to perform at his best, and he will, but Manny will always be a few steps and few points ahead of him in the ring. Pacquiao wins a competitive but unanimous decision – PACQUIAO UD

THOMAS HAUSER — There’s no way to know what Pacquiao has left. But based on past performances, I’ll say Manny by decision.

ARNE LANG – Someday Manny Pacquiao will grow old overnight. We won’t know until after-the-fact, but it’s hard to believe that a man of his vintage hasn’t suffered any skill erosion since his last ring engagement 743 days ago. The concept of “value” is less relevant when betting on boxing than when betting on a team sport (a subject for another day), but the prevailing odds say more about Manny’s lofty status than they do about whatever edge he may have over his formidable Cuban opponent. UGAS TKO 10

KELSEY McCARSON — While I remain incredibly disappointed that the intergenerational superfight vs. Spence isn’t going to happen due to Spence’s eye injury, I find myself giddy at the prospect of seeing Pacquiao inside the ring again. The 42-year-old shouldn’t be favored against world-class welterweights like Ugas this late in his boxing career, but here he is. Ugas, 35, is a strong fighter with some nice skills, but Pacquiao’s rare combination of speed and power will befuddle the Cuban over the course of the fight. PACQUIAO UD

MATT McGRAIN — Pacquiao is Pacquiao and he will be the pick for the majority of contributors to The Sweet Science I presume; not without reason; Manny is one of the greatest fighters who has ever lived. My pick though is Ugas. I’m picking Ugas for two reasons, both of them time-honored. The first is inactivity. Pacquiao will be two years out by the time the first bell goes. Such handicaps can be overcome in the modern era, Klitschko-Peter perhaps the defining example. But the second is age. Pacquiao is 42 years old. That is five important years older than Vitali when he matched Peter.  The contrary pick will be based around Pacquiao’s greatness as a fighter and the euphemism that is “modern nutrition.” Make no mistake though, taking out the number four welterweight contender at this stage of his career remains a feat of no small matter should Pacquiao achieve it. UGAS UD.

SEAN NAM — Ugas may very well be a top-four welterweight, but he will have his hands full with Pacquiao. A counterpuncher who is adept at walking his opponents down behind a high guard, Ugas tends to be too patient at times on offense, leaving Pacquiao to rattle off his customary rapid-fire combinations. Unless Pacquiao’s stamina (a problem for him lately) deteriorates significantly in the second half of the fight, I see a clear decision for the Filipino senator. PACQUIAO UD

TED SARES — Pacquiao has lost a lot of pop on his punches, but still connects with the occasional flash power shot. He also continues to use amazing angles and surprise movement. Still, bear in mind that he did not beat a very beatable Horn—though that decision was “hinky” to this writer. And aside from Matthysse, he was not able to stop Broner or anyone else since going all the way back to his destruction of Cotto in 2009. Thus, stopping Ugas is highly unlikely. However, with the attendant nostalgia that this may be his last fight and with just about every person in the Universe pulling for him except perhaps President Duterte, PacMan will have plenty of fan support. This, along with his vast experience and skill set, should carry the day. PACQUIAO UD

PHIL WOOLEVER — There’s always a chance that time finally catches up to a 42-year- old fighter like Pacquaio, but beyond that scenario there doesn’t seem to be anything on Ugas’ record to suggest he’ll do much more than serve as a measuring stick to determine how much precision punching Manny has left in the tank. PACQUIAO UD.

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