The Rematch of 2023: Kazuto Ioka vs Joshua Franco

The most fascinating rematch of the year will take place this weekend in Tokyo, Japan where the world’s number four super-flyweight, Kazuto Ioka (29-2-1) meets the world’s number five super-flyweight, Joshua Franco (18-1-3).  This is a re-run of their December 2022 split draw and promises something fascinating.

Franco, out of Texas, is perhaps the most aggressive fighter in the world.  In December, he threw 1400 punches, nearly double the number thrown by Ioka, out of Osaka, who deployed all his experience to remain in control of the early part of the fight, relying upon superior accuracy and technical excellence to outscore a fighter who outworked him in every single round. In the first, they threw over a hundred jabs between them and landed almost none, striking at one another’s high guards, Ioka giving ground in those small increments and showing better head-movement.

Part of what Franco struggled with in the early part of that fight was range. Ioka is a general of renown and he knows the ring-ranges and how to access them. If Franco stood off, he found himself engaged in a technical battle he absolutely could not win; if he overstepped, he found himself rushing an opponent who has mastered small moves and has the uppercut to protect them and the right-hand to exact a wearying toll. Both men have chins equal to the other’s power and it is unlikely that the rematch will produce a stoppage unless the thirty-four-year-old Ioka has gone back considerably, but Franco’s problem was not one of accumulation but one of points. Wherever he tried to fight he seemed outmatched.

Meanwhile, he was forced to continue to fight at a demanding pace because any round in which he was outworked he was sure to lose. He had no choice but to continue to attack and to try to rack up points of his own while placing his fight-engine under the closest scrutiny imaginable. Rounds fell through his fingers like sand, until, in the fourth, he banked one.

Franco had found the Goldilocks range for his punches, putting his left foot inside Ioka’s left foot and staying there. He allowed Ioka his superior boxing and bet upon himself to out-punch the Japanese, and it worked. Franco is not fast handed, but he throws meaty punches that sound and look dramatic. Both men were busier in the fourth round and it suited Franco to get hit if it meant he could land important punches of his own. He had established a foothold in the fight. He would not have it all his own way, far from it, but he won the remainder of the fight, arguably stringing together four through nine before dropping off in the tenth.

Ioka seemed genuinely befuddled to me. He did jab, he did push off with both gloves, he did slip and duck and throw the right when his back hit the ropes and he did make those incremental moves, but Franco now matched them and it seemed no matter where Ioka turned, Franco was in his space without over-reaching in the way he had through three. If Franco hit as hard as his punches looked and sounded, Ioka would have been in trouble in the sixth, but a knockout percentage of thirty-five won’t cut it. In fact, Ioka (46%) is probably the puncher of the two.

Ioka tried to neaten up even further, fighting only along the direct front, uppercuts and jabs, while Franco threw meathooks, going to the body with more frequency as the fight progressed, both throwing eye-watering beltline work throughout. But it should be noted that within this chaos, Ioka did not panic. And he continued to outland Franco. Only human, Franco ceded the tenth and I thought the eleventh, though the final and official scorecards were probably settled in this confusing and difficult spell of the fight, nine and eleven so close as to be scored either way so far as I could tell.

Those scorecards ran 115-113 for Franco and 114-114, 114-114, a majority draw. To rescue that draw, Franco had to win that twelfth round. Had Ioka, who came out of his corner screaming, won this round, he would have been fighting someone else this Saturday and Franco would be cursing his flagging stamina and looking to match more minor contenders. Instead, he turned in the best round of his professional career, throwing an overwhelming number of punches in what was his busiest round of a hard fight. As has been said, quantity has a quality of its own, and if Ioka wasn’t quite overwhelmed, he was certainly chased out of contention of this three minutes, which you should see if you haven’t.

I enjoyed the first fight enough to watch and score it twice, emerging once with a 114-114 card, and once with a 115-113 card for Franco, mirroring the judging exactly. But it is not a classic. Perhaps it is the sight and sound of the punches both men landed, hard and sure but never drawing a serious reaction. There was something bloodless about it. A good fight but not a great one.

What is exciting about the rematch is not that it might be the same, which would certainly be worth watching in its own right, but that it might be different. Franco found his man, beyond all hope of contradiction and for all that he slipped a bit in the late rounds, he rallied magnificently to find him again in the twelfth. When a swarmer finds his man, it tends to be a permanent arrangement. Franco knows how Ioka moves, where he will be and so was able to force him to fight with more frequency, and often to outfight him. Will round one of the rematch just be round thirteen?

If that is the case, Ioka cannot hope to win. There is no way Franco will lose each of the first three rounds again and Ioka needed each of these just to score the draw first time around. The only solutions for the Japanese veteran is for him to change where he will be, or changes up his fight plan completely enough that it doesn’t matter that Franco finds him.

The notion of Ioka on his bike is attractive but at thirty-four years of age, it is unlikely he could sustain this strategy. Worse, Franco thrives on momentum. Vacating the space might just encourage the American to fill it. It seems likely to me then that Ioka will try to increase his punch output early which is going to lead to a very dramatic late showdown, or, my guess, that he will have prepared some pet-punch, some by-design combination that will place the predictable Franco under his control or in his wheelhouse. This is likely to produce something very agreeable for both the Sweet Scientists and the casual fan.

On balance, and based upon very little, I think that Ioka’s time has come and gone. He’s in with the wrong man, a man who would have been beaten back by Ioka in his prime but who now represents a nightmarish prospect for an older fighter. It will once again be close, but this time Franco will be contesting the twelfth in search of the win rather than the draw and will do enough to get there, split on the official cards.

One fight of intrigue appears on the undercard. Daigo Higa (Japan, 19-2-1) and Sirichai Thaiyen (Thailand, 65-4) wore straps in previous lives down at 112lbs. Now they meet in a crossroads dust-up at 118lbs. For the loser, professional oblivion, but the winner will become a person of interest at bantamweight.

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