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PREDICTION PAGE: Who Do The Experts Like, Pacquiao or Algieri?

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It’s just about time to see if Chris Algieri can turn a one-off into a trend, can catapult himself to Fighter of the Year honors…or to see if Manny Pacquiao can put into a more nuanced perspective what Algieri did to Ruslan Provodnikov this past June.

Can the Long Islander show the same chin and mettle and superior pugilistic moves he exhibited versus the Russian, and is Pacman (56-5-2) susceptible to that skill set? Or will Manny get the angles on the New Yorker, who has so impressed promoters with his gift for selling his chances and personality, and show himself to be in another league than the 20-0 boxer who not too long ago was seen as an ESPN Friday Night Fights-level performer.

Promoted by Top Rank and Sands China Ltd., in association with MP Promotions, Joe DeGuardia’s Star Boxing, Banner Promotions and Tecate, the Pacquiao vs. Algieri world welterweight championship event will take place tonight at the Cotai Arena in The Venetian Macao Resort in Macau, China. It will be produced and distributed live by HBO Pay-Per-View beginning at 9:00 p.m. Boxnation coverage in the UK starts at 2:00am.

Now it’s prediction time – I’ve reached out and spoke to various experts and asked them for their take on the outcome. Enjoy, and please add your own, in the TSS forum.

First off, preds from Team TSS.

David A. Avila: Manny Pacquiao by split decision in a close and boring fight. Algieri’s reach will prove a problem, kind of like Vernon Forrest’s reach always proved difficult for Shane Mosley. But Manny’s leg quickness should help him win the fight.

Bernard Fernandez: It is a matter of some debate of just how much Manny Pacquiao has left, in terms of skill or of will. And it probably is true that he has lot some hop off his fastball. Still, you have to figure that 75 to 80 percent of all that Pac-Man once was should be enough to get past a Chris Algieri who beat Ruslan Provodnikov, but took a bit of a beating in doing so. Pacquiao by ninth-round stoppage.

Randy Gordon: Algieri WUD 12; I am as royal as I can be… I must go with my homeboy to win a decision. Pacquiao has lost before. He will lose again. Bring on the rematch clause!

Blake Hochberger: Pacman UD12. I think this is a really tactical fight that sees Algieri’s stock rise in defeat. He’ll win a few rounds convincingly in the middle rounds, but Manny’s pressure/high-volume combination punching will penetrate the American’s stellar defense. You can’t prepare for the unique angles Manny attacks from when he charges in, and Algieri lacks the pure punching power to crack him with counters to stop him from attacking and dictating the pace.

Frank Lotierzo: On paper Pacquiao-Algieri looks like a mismatch. However, I believe Algieri is a little better and tougher than most think. His height, reach and fighting aptitude will keep him around for a while. Manny has gone back as fighter – that’s why Chris was selected as the opponent. Pacquiao wins, and if he’s still anything close to the super-nova he once was, he should stop Algieri.

Aaron Lowinger: Pacquiao UD-12 ; We all know Algieri is a strong tactical fighter in great shape, and we’ve seen him get rocked and stay in, so I don’t think his chin will be much of an issue. Besides, Pacquiao seems to enjoy outboxing guys rather than knocking them out these days anyway. It will be Pacquiao’s speed and power that carry him to a decision win that is scored more narrowly than we’ll expect.

Raymond Markarian: I like Pacquiao to win a decision. Manny looks sharp in camp. He might look for the knockout early but Algieri’s height and jab will prevent that from happening. Oh, and you cannot forget about Algieri’s footwork. Algieri’s movement helped him the most against Provodnikov but he will not tame Manny. I think Manny wins a wide decision and hits Algieri with blistering combos in the midst of an exciting one-sided fight. Pacquiao UD

Kelsey McCarson: Pacquiao TKO 10. There’s nothing in Algieri’s close win over Provodnikov that tells me he can do anything but go rounds (and lose them) against Pacquiao. I’m not even sure he deserved the nod over Provodnikov in the first place. Pacquiao is too fast and too good offensively for the limited Algieri. The HBO and Top Rank hype machine did their job. They’ve convinced the boxing public at-large that the good-natured kid from Huntington, New York has a chance. He doesn’t. After about two rounds, this fight is a one-sided beatdown in Pac-man’s favor.

Robbi Paterson: First of all, I prefer Algieri’s style to Pacquiao’s, even though it’s not proven at elite level over a prolonged period of time. He fights tall behind his jab, which I admire, topped off with excessive lateral movement and he possesses a sharp lead right hand down the pipe. Algieri can’t stand flat footed for too long. He also can’t back away too much either (survival style strategy), as this will invite Pacquiao to come on strong with both hands while closing the distance. He’ll need to find a balance between both, a bit like how Marquez employed himself against Pacquiao. Algeiri must also shoot his punches from underneath as well as over the top – variety is needed. With that said, it’s extremely hard to pick against Pacquiao over the course. He’s got gears Algieri, so far, hasn’t shown in his career. I’ll go with the tried and trusted: Pacquiao via decision.

David Phillips: Pacman, TKO 10. I think Algieri’s cajones will carry him into the later portions of the fight. The biggest issue I see for Algieri is he can’t hurt or out throw Manny. Provodnikov took portions of their fight off and he’s there to be hit. Manny will be busier and his superior footwork will flummox Algieri. Not to mention, Manny can hurt Algieri too. I don’t think Algieri will quit. I suspect we may see a towel in the ring. Let me also add, I’m zero for 2014 on big fights. So there’s that.

Aaron Tallent: Algieri will face Pacquiao in what is only the second 12-round bout of his career. This is not going to be pretty. Pacquiao by KO.

Spring Toledo (author of the book ‘Gods of War): Algieri’s victory over Provodnikov was more of a showcase of the latter’s limitations than the former’s skill and prowess. Algieri is good for boxing; and his superb conditioning and lionheart rightfully earned him the win that earned him a shot at Pacquiao. But that doesn’t mean he can win. This will be a test first of Pacquiao’s legs. If Pacquiao still has them and “it,” he’ll slip the jab, close the distance, and crack him from angles like Matrix. If he wants to, he may knock him out.

Phil Woolever: Pacquiao TKO 9. Leonard – LaLonde 2.

—compiled with Michael Woods

Sean Crose (Boxinginsider.com): I think Algieri may be a bit underrated. Still, Pac-Man comes at you so fast, from so many angles, and so aggressively, that it’s hard for me to see Algieri beating him. Sure, Algieri has a ton of heart and energy, but he was only able to squeak by Provodnikov (if he even did that). Manny’s just on a whole other level. Pacquiao by UD.

Malik Scott (heavyweight contender): I believe Algieri has the skills to pay the bills: a huge heart and great ring generalship. I believe that his style is perfect for Pac-Man to be defeated at this time. Algieri wins a decision in an entertaining fight.

Matt Hamilton (ESNewsreporting.com): Boxing needs a Pacquiao win to sustain a range of lucrative possibilities in 2015. I thus see Algieri as unlikely to be the recipient of any goodwill on the cards. Having said that you have a Pacquiao in decline – at what rate we do not yet know – against a more modest talent historically who is close to or at his absolute peak. For these reasons I’m inclined to view this as a contentious yet convenient Pacquiao win on the cards by majority decision.

Ben Doughty (TipTv.co.uk): A lot of people seem to be tipping the upset in this one and I can appreciate the reasoning behind it. Algieri impressed me vs Provodnikov and clearly knows his way around the ring. He has three and a half inch reach advantage and at 5′ 10″ possesses the movement and skills to cause Pacquiao problems. A points win for Algieri doesn’t seem like an outlandish prediction at this stage but I think that Manny looked relatively fresh in the Bradley rematch earlier this year. As the bigger commercial animal, I think that Pacquaio can do enough to win a decision whether richly deserved or not.

James Smith (InThisCornerTV.com): Interesting fight given where both fighters are at this stage in their lives and careers and given the stylistic matchup. Manny should win no doubt, but Chris with his length and jab, yes especially that jab can present problems for the Pac-Man. Manny has always had an issue with the jab. The reason for that, well that is for my show. My pick would be Manny by decision.

Rudy Hernandez (Los Angeles based trainer): Algieri will try and out box Pacquiao but he’s never been in the ring anyone like Pacquiao, who’s style is not common and not as easy as it looks. Pacquiao will try and knock him out but I think Algieri survives after getting knocked down once or twice. Pacquiao by decision.

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 289: East LA, Claressa Shields and More

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 289: East LA, Claressa Shields and More

East Los Angeles has long been a haven for some of the best fighters around if you can keep them out of trouble. For every Oscar De La Hoya or Seniesa Estrada there are thousands derailed by crime, drugs or drinking.

Boxing has always been a favorite sport of East L.A. Every family has an uncle or two who boxes.

On Friday, 360 Promotions’ Omar Trinidad (15-0-1) fights Viktor Slavinskyi (15-2-1) in the main event at Commerce Casino, in Commerce, CA. UFC Fight Pass will stream the fight card.

The City of Commerce used to be part of East L.A. until 1960 when it incorporated. It’s still considered to be part of East Los Angeles, but informally.

Plenty of fighters come out of East L.A. but few make it all the way like De La Hoya and Estrada. Will Trinidad be the one?

The first world champion from East L.A. or “East Los” as some call it, was Solly Garcia Smith back in the late 1800s. Others were Richie Lemos, Art Frias and Joey Olivo. There is also 1984 Olympic gold medalist Paul Gonzalez.

Once again 360 Promotions brings its popular brand of fights to the area. On this fight card includes two female bouts. One features Roxy Verduzco (1-0) the former amateur star fighting Colleen Davis (3-1-1) in a featherweight fight.

All that action takes place on Friday.

Elite Boxing

The next day, also in East L.A., Elite Boxing stages another boxing card at Salesian High School located at 960 S. Soto Street in the Boyle Heights area of East Los Angeles.

Elite Boxing has promoted several successful boxing cards at the Catholic high school grounds. The area is saturated by many of the best eateries in Los Angeles. Don’t take my word for it. Check it out yourself and grab some of that delicious food.

Boxing has long been a favorite sport of anyone who lives in East L.A. It’s a fight town equal to Philadelphia, Brooklyn or Detroit. There’s something different about the area. For more than 100 years some of the best fighters continue to come out of its boxing gyms. Some will be performing on these club shows.

For tickets or information go to www.eliteboxingusa.com

Claressa Shields in Detroit

Speaking of fight towns, pound-for-pound best Claressa Shields who won two Olympic Gold Medals in boxing, moves up another weight division to tackle the WBC heavyweight world champion Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse on Saturday, July 27, at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

DAZN will stream the heavy-duty fight card.

Shields (14-0) cleaned out the super welterweight, middleweight and super middleweight divisions and now wants to add the big girls to her conquests. She will be facing Canada’s Lepage-Joanisse  (7-1) who holds the WBC belt.

The last time Shields gloved up was more than a year ago when she fought Maricela Cornejo. Don’t blame Shields. She loves to fight. She loves to win. The last time Shields lost a fight was in the amateurs and that was three presidential administrations ago.

Shields doesn’t lose.

I wonder if Las Vegas even takes bets on her fights?

The only fight she may have been an underdog was against Savannah Marshall who was the last opponent to defeat her. And that was in 2012 in China. When they met as pros two years ago, Shields avenged her loss with a blistering attack.

Don’t get Shields mad.

Perhaps her toughest foe as a pro was in her pro debut when she clashed with Franchon Crews-Dezurn in Las Vegas. It was four rounds of fists and fury as the two pounded each other on the undercard of Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev in November 2016.

That was a ferocious debut for both female pugilists.

Assisting Shields on this fight card will be several intriguing male bouts. One guy you should pay special attention is Tito Mercado (15-0, 14 KOs) a super lightweight prospect from Pomona, California.

Many excellent fighters have come out of Pomona including Sugar Shane Mosley, Shane Mosley Jr., Alberto Davila and Richie Sandoval who just passed away this week.

Sandoval was best known for his 15-round war with Philadelphia’s Jeff Chandler for the bantamweight world title in 1984. Read the story by Arne K. Lang on this link: https://tss.ib.tv/boxing/featured-boxing-articles-boxing-news-videos-rankings-and-results/81467-former-world-bantamweight-champion-richie-sandoval-passes-away-at-age-63 .

Fights to Watch

Fri. UFC Fight Pass 7 p.m. Omar Trinidad (15-0-1) vs Viktor Slavinskyi (15-2-1).

Sat. ESPN+ 12:30 p.m. Joe Joyce (16-2) vs Derek Chisora (34-13).

Sat. DAZN  3 p.m. Claressa Shields (14-0) vs Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse (7-1), Michel Rivera (25-1) vs Hugo Roldan (22-2-1); Tito Mercado (15-0) vs Hector Sarmiento (21-2).

Omar Trinidad photo by Lina Baker

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Arne’s Almanac: Jake Paul and Women’s Boxing, a Curmudgeon’s Take

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Jake Paul can fight more than a little. The view from here is that he would make it interesting against any fringe contender in the cruiserweight division. However, Jake’s boxing acumen pales when paired against his skill as a flim-flam artist.

Jake brought a 9-1 record into last weekend’s bout with Mike Perry. As noted by boxing writer Paul Magno, Jake’s previous opponents consisted of “a You Tuber, a retired NBA star, five retired MMA stars, a part-time boxer/reality TV star, and two undersized and inactive fall-guy boxers.”

Mike Perry, a 32-year-old Floridian, was undefeated (6-0, 3 KOs) as a bare-knuckle boxer after forging a 14-8 record in UFC bouts. In pre-fight blurbs, Perry was billed as the baddest bare knuckle boxer of all time, but against Jake Paul he proved to have very unrefined skills as a conventional boxer which Team Paul undoubtedly knew all along. Perry lasted into the eighth round in a one-sided fight that could have been stopped a lot sooner.

Jake Paul is both a boxer and a promoter. As a promoter, he handles Amanda Serrano, one of the greatest female boxers in history. That makes him the person most responsible (because the buck stops with him) for the wretched mismatch in last Saturday’s co-feature, the bout between Serrano and Stevie Morgan.

Morgan, who took up boxing two years ago at age 33, brought a 14-1 record. Nicknamed the Sledgehammer, she had won 13 of her 14 wins by knockout, eight in the opening round. However, although she resides in Florida, all but one of those 13 knockouts happened in Colombia.

“We found that in Colombia there were just more opportunities for women’s boxing than in the United States,” she told a prominent boxing writer whose name we won’t mention.

The truth is that, for some folks, Colombia is the boxing equivalent of a feeder lot for livestock, a place where a boxer can go to fatten their record. The opportunities there were no greater than in Hot Springs, Arkansas, in 1995. It was there that Peter McNeeley prepped for his match with Mike Tyson with a 6-second knockout of professional punching bag Frankie Hines. (Six seconds? So it would be written although no one seems to have been there to witness it.)

Serrano vs Morgan was understood to be a stay-busy fight for Amanda whose rematch with Katie Taylor was postponed until November. Stevie Morgan, to her credit, answered the bell for the second round whereas others in her situation would have remained on the stool and invented an injury to rationalize it. Thirty-eight seconds later it was all over and Ms. Morgan was free to go home and use her sledgehammer to do some light dusting.

The Paul-Perry and Serrano-Morgan fights played out in a sold-out arena in Tampa before an estimated 17,000. Those without a DAZN subscription paid $64.95 for the livestream. Paul’s next promotion, where he will touch gloves with 58-year-old Mike Tyson (unless Iron Mike pulls a Joe Biden and pulls out; a capital idea) with Serrano-Taylor II the semi-main, will almost certainly rake in more money than any other boxing promotion this year.

Asked his opinion of so-called crossover boxing by a reporter for a college newspaper, the venerable boxing promoter Bob Arum said, “It’s not my bag but folks who don’t like it shouldn’t get too worked up over it because no one is stealing from anybody.” True enough, but for some of us, the phenomenon is distressing.

The next big women’s fight happens Saturday in Detroit where Claressa Shields seeks a world title in a third weight class against WBC heavyweight belt-holder Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse.

A two-time Olympic gold medalist, undefeated in 14 fights as a pro, Shields is very good, arguably the best female boxer of her generation which makes her, arguably, the best female boxer of all time. But turning away Lepage-Joanisse (7-1, 2 KOs) won’t elevate her stature in our eyes.

Purportedly 17-4 as an amateur, the Canadian won her title in her second crack at it. Back in August of 2017, she challenged Cancun’s Alejandra Jimenez in Cancun and was stopped in the third round. Entering the bout, Lepage-Joanisse was 3-0 as a pro and had never fought a match slated for more than four rounds.

Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse

Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse

True, on the women’s side, the heavyweight bracket is a very small pod. A sanctioning body has to make concessions to harness a sanctioning fee. Nonetheless, how absurd that a woman who had answered the bell for only 11 rounds would be deemed qualified to compete for a world title. (FYI: Alejandra Jimenez was purportedly born a man. She left the sport with a 12-0-1 record after her win over Franchon Crews Dazurn was changed to a no-contest when she tested positive for the banned steroid stanozolol.)

Following her defeat to Jimenez, Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse, now 29 years old, was out of action for six-and-a-half years. When she returned, she was still a heavyweight, but a much slender heavyweight. She carried 231 pounds for Jimenez. In her most recent bout where she captured the vacant WBC title with a split decision over Argentina’s Abril Argentina Vidal, she clocked in at 173 ¼. (On the distaff side, there’s no uniformity among the various sanctioning bodies as to what constitutes a heavyweight.)

Claressa Shields doesn’t need Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse to reinforce her credentials as a future Hall of Famer. She made the cut a long time ago.

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Former World Bantamweight Champion Richie Sandoval Passes Away at Age 63

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Richie Sandoval, who won the WBA and lineal bantamweight title in one of the biggest upsets of the 1980s and then, not quite two years later, suffered near-fatal injuries in a title defense, has passed away at the age of 63.

News circulated fast in the Las Vegas boxing community on Monday, July 22, the grapevine actuated by a tweet from Hall of Fame matchmaker Bruce Trampler: “Boxing and the Top Rank family lost one of our own last night in the passing of former WBA bantamweight champion Richie Sandoval. It hurts personally and professionally to know that Richie is gone at age 63. RIP campeon.”

Details are vague but the cause of death was apparently a sudden heart attack that Sandoval experienced while visiting the Southern California home of his son of the same name.

Richie Sandoval put the LA County community of Pomona, California, on the boxing map before Shane Mosley came along and gave the town a more frequently-cited mention in the sports section of the papers. He came from a fighting family. An older brother, Albert “Superfly” Sandoval, became a big draw at LA’s fabled Olympic Auditorium while building a 35-2-1 record that included a failed bid to capture Lupe Pintor’s world bantamweight title.

Richie was a member of the 1980 U.S. Olympic boxing team that was stranded when U.S. President Jimmy Carter (and many other world leaders) boycotted the event as a protest against Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan.

As a pro, Sandoval’s signature win was a 15th-round stoppage of Jeff Chandler. They fought on April 7, 1984 in Atlantic City. Chandler was making the tenth defense of his world bantamweight title.

Despite being a heavy underdog, Sandoval dominated the fight, winning almost every round until the referee stepped in and waived it off. Chandler, who was 33-1-2 heading in and had avenged his lone defeat, never fought again.

Sandoval made two successful defenses before risking his title against Gaby Canizales on the undercard of Hagler-Mugabi in the outdoor stadium at Caesars Palace. In round seven, Sandoval, who had a hellish time making the weight, was knocked down three times and suffered a seizure as he collapsed from the third knockdown. Stretchered out of the ring, he was rushed to the hospital where doctors reduced the swelling in his brain and beat the odds to save his life. This would be Richie’s lone defeat. He finished his pro career with a record of 29-1 (17 KOs).

Bob Arum cushioned some of the pain by giving Richie a $25,000 bonus and offering him a lifetime job at Top Rank which Richie accepted. And let the record show that Arum was good to his word.

A more elaborate portrait of Richie Sandoval was published in these pages in 2017. You can check it out HERE. May he rest in peace.

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