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PREDICTION PAGE: Who Do The Experts Like, Pacquiao or Algieri?

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It’s just about time to see if Chris Algieri can turn a one-off into a trend, can catapult himself to Fighter of the Year honors…or to see if Manny Pacquiao can put into a more nuanced perspective what Algieri did to Ruslan Provodnikov this past June.

Can the Long Islander show the same chin and mettle and superior pugilistic moves he exhibited versus the Russian, and is Pacman (56-5-2) susceptible to that skill set? Or will Manny get the angles on the New Yorker, who has so impressed promoters with his gift for selling his chances and personality, and show himself to be in another league than the 20-0 boxer who not too long ago was seen as an ESPN Friday Night Fights-level performer.

Promoted by Top Rank and Sands China Ltd., in association with MP Promotions, Joe DeGuardia’s Star Boxing, Banner Promotions and Tecate, the Pacquiao vs. Algieri world welterweight championship event will take place tonight at the Cotai Arena in The Venetian Macao Resort in Macau, China. It will be produced and distributed live by HBO Pay-Per-View beginning at 9:00 p.m. Boxnation coverage in the UK starts at 2:00am.

Now it’s prediction time – I’ve reached out and spoke to various experts and asked them for their take on the outcome. Enjoy, and please add your own, in the TSS forum.

First off, preds from Team TSS.

David A. Avila: Manny Pacquiao by split decision in a close and boring fight. Algieri’s reach will prove a problem, kind of like Vernon Forrest’s reach always proved difficult for Shane Mosley. But Manny’s leg quickness should help him win the fight.

Bernard Fernandez: It is a matter of some debate of just how much Manny Pacquiao has left, in terms of skill or of will. And it probably is true that he has lot some hop off his fastball. Still, you have to figure that 75 to 80 percent of all that Pac-Man once was should be enough to get past a Chris Algieri who beat Ruslan Provodnikov, but took a bit of a beating in doing so. Pacquiao by ninth-round stoppage.

Randy Gordon: Algieri WUD 12; I am as royal as I can be… I must go with my homeboy to win a decision. Pacquiao has lost before. He will lose again. Bring on the rematch clause!

Blake Hochberger: Pacman UD12. I think this is a really tactical fight that sees Algieri’s stock rise in defeat. He’ll win a few rounds convincingly in the middle rounds, but Manny’s pressure/high-volume combination punching will penetrate the American’s stellar defense. You can’t prepare for the unique angles Manny attacks from when he charges in, and Algieri lacks the pure punching power to crack him with counters to stop him from attacking and dictating the pace.

Frank Lotierzo: On paper Pacquiao-Algieri looks like a mismatch. However, I believe Algieri is a little better and tougher than most think. His height, reach and fighting aptitude will keep him around for a while. Manny has gone back as fighter – that’s why Chris was selected as the opponent. Pacquiao wins, and if he’s still anything close to the super-nova he once was, he should stop Algieri.

Aaron Lowinger: Pacquiao UD-12 ; We all know Algieri is a strong tactical fighter in great shape, and we’ve seen him get rocked and stay in, so I don’t think his chin will be much of an issue. Besides, Pacquiao seems to enjoy outboxing guys rather than knocking them out these days anyway. It will be Pacquiao’s speed and power that carry him to a decision win that is scored more narrowly than we’ll expect.

Raymond Markarian: I like Pacquiao to win a decision. Manny looks sharp in camp. He might look for the knockout early but Algieri’s height and jab will prevent that from happening. Oh, and you cannot forget about Algieri’s footwork. Algieri’s movement helped him the most against Provodnikov but he will not tame Manny. I think Manny wins a wide decision and hits Algieri with blistering combos in the midst of an exciting one-sided fight. Pacquiao UD

Kelsey McCarson: Pacquiao TKO 10. There’s nothing in Algieri’s close win over Provodnikov that tells me he can do anything but go rounds (and lose them) against Pacquiao. I’m not even sure he deserved the nod over Provodnikov in the first place. Pacquiao is too fast and too good offensively for the limited Algieri. The HBO and Top Rank hype machine did their job. They’ve convinced the boxing public at-large that the good-natured kid from Huntington, New York has a chance. He doesn’t. After about two rounds, this fight is a one-sided beatdown in Pac-man’s favor.

Robbi Paterson: First of all, I prefer Algieri’s style to Pacquiao’s, even though it’s not proven at elite level over a prolonged period of time. He fights tall behind his jab, which I admire, topped off with excessive lateral movement and he possesses a sharp lead right hand down the pipe. Algieri can’t stand flat footed for too long. He also can’t back away too much either (survival style strategy), as this will invite Pacquiao to come on strong with both hands while closing the distance. He’ll need to find a balance between both, a bit like how Marquez employed himself against Pacquiao. Algeiri must also shoot his punches from underneath as well as over the top – variety is needed. With that said, it’s extremely hard to pick against Pacquiao over the course. He’s got gears Algieri, so far, hasn’t shown in his career. I’ll go with the tried and trusted: Pacquiao via decision.

David Phillips: Pacman, TKO 10. I think Algieri’s cajones will carry him into the later portions of the fight. The biggest issue I see for Algieri is he can’t hurt or out throw Manny. Provodnikov took portions of their fight off and he’s there to be hit. Manny will be busier and his superior footwork will flummox Algieri. Not to mention, Manny can hurt Algieri too. I don’t think Algieri will quit. I suspect we may see a towel in the ring. Let me also add, I’m zero for 2014 on big fights. So there’s that.

Aaron Tallent: Algieri will face Pacquiao in what is only the second 12-round bout of his career. This is not going to be pretty. Pacquiao by KO.

Spring Toledo (author of the book ‘Gods of War): Algieri’s victory over Provodnikov was more of a showcase of the latter’s limitations than the former’s skill and prowess. Algieri is good for boxing; and his superb conditioning and lionheart rightfully earned him the win that earned him a shot at Pacquiao. But that doesn’t mean he can win. This will be a test first of Pacquiao’s legs. If Pacquiao still has them and “it,” he’ll slip the jab, close the distance, and crack him from angles like Matrix. If he wants to, he may knock him out.

Phil Woolever: Pacquiao TKO 9. Leonard – LaLonde 2.

—compiled with Michael Woods

Sean Crose (Boxinginsider.com): I think Algieri may be a bit underrated. Still, Pac-Man comes at you so fast, from so many angles, and so aggressively, that it’s hard for me to see Algieri beating him. Sure, Algieri has a ton of heart and energy, but he was only able to squeak by Provodnikov (if he even did that). Manny’s just on a whole other level. Pacquiao by UD.

Malik Scott (heavyweight contender): I believe Algieri has the skills to pay the bills: a huge heart and great ring generalship. I believe that his style is perfect for Pac-Man to be defeated at this time. Algieri wins a decision in an entertaining fight.

Matt Hamilton (ESNewsreporting.com): Boxing needs a Pacquiao win to sustain a range of lucrative possibilities in 2015. I thus see Algieri as unlikely to be the recipient of any goodwill on the cards. Having said that you have a Pacquiao in decline – at what rate we do not yet know – against a more modest talent historically who is close to or at his absolute peak. For these reasons I’m inclined to view this as a contentious yet convenient Pacquiao win on the cards by majority decision.

Ben Doughty (TipTv.co.uk): A lot of people seem to be tipping the upset in this one and I can appreciate the reasoning behind it. Algieri impressed me vs Provodnikov and clearly knows his way around the ring. He has three and a half inch reach advantage and at 5′ 10″ possesses the movement and skills to cause Pacquiao problems. A points win for Algieri doesn’t seem like an outlandish prediction at this stage but I think that Manny looked relatively fresh in the Bradley rematch earlier this year. As the bigger commercial animal, I think that Pacquaio can do enough to win a decision whether richly deserved or not.

James Smith (InThisCornerTV.com): Interesting fight given where both fighters are at this stage in their lives and careers and given the stylistic matchup. Manny should win no doubt, but Chris with his length and jab, yes especially that jab can present problems for the Pac-Man. Manny has always had an issue with the jab. The reason for that, well that is for my show. My pick would be Manny by decision.

Rudy Hernandez (Los Angeles based trainer): Algieri will try and out box Pacquiao but he’s never been in the ring anyone like Pacquiao, who’s style is not common and not as easy as it looks. Pacquiao will try and knock him out but I think Algieri survives after getting knocked down once or twice. Pacquiao by decision.

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Usyk Outpoints Fury and Itauma has the “Wow Factor” in Riyadh

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Usyk Outpoints Fury and Itauma has the “Wow Factor” in Riyadh

Oleksandr Usyk left no doubt that he is the best heavyweight of his generation and one of the greatest boxers of all time with a unanimous decision over Tyson Fury tonight at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. But although the Ukrainian won eight rounds on all three scorecards, this was no runaway. To pirate a line from one of the DAZN talking heads, Fury had his moments in every round but Usyk had more moments.

The early rounds were fought at a faster pace than the first meeting back in May. At the mid-point, the fight was even. The next three rounds – the next five to some observers – were all Usyk who threw more punches and landed the cleaner shots.

Fury won the final round in the eyes of this reporter scoring at home, but by then he needed a knockout to pull the match out of the fire.

The last round was an outstanding climax to an entertaining chess match during which both fighters took turns being the pursuer and the pursued.

An Olympic gold medalist and a unified world champion at cruiserweight and heavyweight, the amazing Usyk improved his ledger to 23-0 (14). His next fight, more than likely, will come against the winner of the Feb. 22 match in Ridayh between Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker which will share the bill with the rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol.

Fury (34-2-1) may fight Anthony Joshua next. Regardless, no one wants a piece of Moses Itauma right now although the kid is only 19 years old.

Moses Itauma

Raised in London by a Nigerian father and a Slovakian mother, Itauma turned heads once again with another “wow” performance. None of his last seven opponents lasted beyond the second round.

His opponent tonight, 34-year-old Australian Demsey McKean, lasted less than two minutes. Itauma, a southpaw with blazing fast hands, had the Aussie on the deck twice during the 117-second skirmish. The first knockdown was the result of a cuffing punch that landed high on the head; the second knockdown was produced by an overhand left. McKean went down hard as his chief cornerman bounded on to the ring apron to halt the massacre.

Photo (c);Mark Robinson/Matchroom

Photo (c): Mark Robinson

Itauma (12-0, 10 KOs after going 20-0 as an amateur) is the real deal. It was the second straight loss for McKean (22-2) who lasted into the 10th round against Filip Hrgovic in his last start.

Bohachuk-Davis

In a fight billed as the co-main although it preceded Itauma-McKean, Serhii Bohachuk, an LA-based Ukrainian, stopped Ishmael Davis whose corner pulled him out after six frames.

Both fighters were coming off a loss in fights that were close on the scorecards, Bohachuk falling to Vergil Ortiz Jr in a Las Vegas barnburner and Davis losing to Josh Kelly.

Davis, who took the fight on short notice, subbing for Ismail Madrimov, declined to 13-2. He landed a few good shots but was on the canvas in the second round, compliments of a short left hook, and the relentless Bohachuk (25-2, 24 KOs) eventually wore him down.

Fisher-Allen

In a messy, 10-round bar brawl masquerading as a boxing match, Johnny Fisher, the Romford Bull, won a split decision over British countryman David Allen. Two judges favored Fisher by 95-94 tallies with the dissenter favoring Allen 96-93. When the scores were announced, there was a chorus of boos and those watching at home were outraged.

Allen was a step up in class for Fisher. The Doncaster man had a decent record (23-5-2 heading in) and had been routinely matched tough (his former opponents included Dillian Whyte, Luis “King Kong” Ortiz and three former Olympians). But Allen was fairly considered no more than a journeyman and Fisher (12-0 with 11 KOs, eight in the opening round) was a huge favorite.

In round five, Allen had Fisher on the canvas twice although only one was ruled a true knockdown. From that point, he landed the harder shots and, at the final bell, he fell to canvas shedding tears of joy, convinced that he had won.

He did not win, but he exposed Johnny Fisher as a fighter too slow to compete with elite heavyweights, a British version of the ponderous Russian-Canadian campaigner Arslanbek Makhmudov.

Other Bouts of Note

In a spirited 10-round featherweight match, Scotland’s Lee McGregor, a former European bantamweight champion and stablemate of former unified 140-pound title-holder Josh Taylor, advanced to 15-1-1 (11) with a unanimous decision over Isaac Lowe (25-3-3). The judges had it 96-92 and 97-91 twice.

A cousin and regular houseguest of Tyson Fury, Lowe fought most of the fight with cuts around both eyes and was twice deducted a point for losing his gumshield.

In a fight between super featherweights that could have gone either way, Liverpool southpaw Peter McGrail improved to 11-1 (6) with a 10-round unanimous decision over late sub Rhys Edwards. The judges had it 96-95 and 96-94 twice.

McGrail, a Tokyo Olympian and 2018 Commonwealth Games gold medalist, fought from the third round on with a cut above his right eye, the result of an accidental clash of heads. It was the first loss for Edwards (16-1), a 24-year-old Welshman who has another fight booked in three weeks.

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.

The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.

Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.

The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.

That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.

The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)

Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)

Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.

Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).

Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.

The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.

Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.

Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.

We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”

The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.

Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.

Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.

Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.

There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France,  Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.

It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed,  it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.

Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.

At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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