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The Official TSS Pacquiao – Thurman Prediction Page
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The Official TSS Pacquiao – Thurman Prediction Page
Boxing promoters like to boast that their latest offering is a 50-50 fight. A glance at the available betting odds informs us this attestation is usually bunk.
Not so Saturday’s Pacquiao-Thurman fight, a match where the 50-50 tag is no bull. The oddsmakers opened Thurman a slight favorite, at last glance the other guy was favored, and it wouldn’t surprise us if the pendulum swings back. There’s a considerable amount of “sharp money” on both sides of this proposition and that doesn’t happen very often.
As is our custom when there is a big fight, we survey members of our editorial staff to get their opinions and we list the respondents alphabetically. Comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, whose specialty is combat sports, provided the graphic. Check out more of Rob Ayala’s illustrations at his web site fight posium.
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Matt Andrzejewski — Pacquiao has looked tremendous in his two most recent outings and that has many people thinking he is still at the top of his game. But let’s put those performances in context. One was against a shopworn Lucas Matthysse; the other against a low volume output fighter in Adrien Broner who stylistically played right into Pacquiao’s hands. Thurman shook off the rust in his last fight and is just entering the prime of his career. I think Pacquiao looks his age and THURMAN coasts to a wide decision victory.
Rick Assad — This will be a test of wills and both will be in superb shape, but every factor is in Thurman’s favor, including age, height and punching power. Thurman, who has won 29 straight, 22 via knockout, has disposed of Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo, Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia and Josesito Lopez over the last 52 months, while in Pac-Man’s last six fights, he’s 4-2 with losses to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Jeff Horn. If this fight took place seven years ago, Pacquiao would win based on hand and foot speed, but it’s 2019 and he will find himself on the short end of the stick. THURMAN by split decision.
Bernard Fernandez – I have always been a fan of the Manny Pacquiao I saw beat the hell out of Ledwaba in his U.S. debut and evolve into an all-time great. But even great fighters yield bits and pieces of their special gifts to the inexorable march of time. Manny is 40, and there is ample evidence that while he has maintained his speed, his vaunted punching power has clearly ebbed. Not that this should be a replay of Sugar Ray Leonard vs. Terry Norris, but I have to side with the younger, undefeated guy. Keith THURMAN doesn’t score the knockout he has promised to deliver, but he does enough to come away with a UD or MD.
Jeffrey Freeman — Keith THURMAN MD12. It won’t be easy in there on the inside but Keith Thurman has the physical range and the closer-to-peak skills needed to carefully outbox an aging but still fit Manny Pacquiao. Thurman survives some shaky moments early to the body, harnesses Manny down the stretch and hears the announcer say he won while simultaneously hearing boos from the crowd unsatisfied with “One Time’s” performance and the off-kilter scoring. As is his wont when he loses, Manny sheds no tears over his now eighth L and “Pac-Man” gobbles up another nice check.
Thomas Hauser — Pacquiao isn’t going to get better at this stage of his career. The open issue regarding Manny is the slope of his decline. By contrast, Thurman has been plagued by injuries and the possible loss of motivation but is young enough to successfully rebound. The big open issue regarding Keith is, “How far has he come back?” My guess is that THURMAN will become more dominant as the fight goes on. How hard he pushes this advantage will determine whether he wins by decision or late stoppage.
Miguel Iturrate – Pacquiao has looked rejuvenated, or at least fully recovered from the shoulder injury that affected his Mayweather performance. He did not look 40 years old against Matthysse and Broner. On the other hand, Thurman is fresh off a long layoff but his most recent outing against veteran Josesito Lopez left some questions. Add to this the news that the fighters will not be subject to VADA testing, and I suspect that we are going to get a pretty sharp version of the Pac-man. I’m going to go with PACQUIAO on this one.
Arne Lang – I envision this fight echoing Thurman’s 2016 fight with Shawn Porter. Keith Thurman fought that fight on the retreat, frequently with his back against the ropes, but won seven of the 12 rounds on all three scorecards. I look for another close and potentially unpopular decision with the nod going against the Senator. THURMAN-Porter was a lollapalooza. Perhaps we’ll get lucky again.
Kelsey McCarson — I like Pacquiao by decision. A good rule of thumb for people like me who like to pick fights is to never back a fighter over 35. Pacquiao is 40 now, and he’s nowhere near the elite specimen he was ten years ago. But backing Pacquiao in his last fight against the much younger Adrien Broner made sense, and I think breaking my rule in this case for Pacquiao-Thurman does, too. Thurman has a quality resume, but I’m guessing somewhere inside he knows he’s not quite a great welterweight. That’s probably why he wanted no part of Errol Spence and probably also what led to him being out of the ring for so long during recent years. The fight will be competitive, but PACQUIAO will throw and land more punches while Thurman will mostly try to move and box off his backfoot once he gets a taste of Pacquiao’s power.
Matt McGrain — “Last time I knew Manny Pacquiao was going to win he lost to Jeff Horn. On the other hand, picking against a living legend like Manny is just not a thing I can do happily. So, it’s dry, and it’s sad then, that I’m picking Keith THURMAN, but the point at which my heart rules my head has been reached and breached. Too big, too tough. The tipping point with Manny has also been reached and breached, I think. I really am looking forward to his proving me wrong.”
Sean Nam — As impressive as it may have been to see 40-year-old Manny Pacquiao outpoint loudmouth dilettante Adrien Broner, it should not disguise the fact that the full-time Senator has been on the decline for nearly a decade. Indeed, by agreeing to face Keith Thurman, the natural welterweight with perhaps the best resume in the division, Pacquiao will be trading punches with a world-class opponent in his prime, a circumstance not seen since at least 2016, when he rematched Timothy Bradley Jr. Of course, Thurman has his own laundry list of caveats. After a two-year period of inactivity and injuries, Thurman returned to the ring earlier this year in a virtual tune-up against Josesito Lopez. Though he won wide on points, he was wobbled badly midway through the fight. Also to consider is the fact that Thurman has not had a clear-cut knockout victory since he fought Julio Diaz in 2014, a sign that perhaps he does not hit as hard as some think. Thurman is not likely to knock out a proven, stone cold competitor like Pacquiao, but he has the athletic credentials — and enough power — to edge the aging icon on the scorecards. As has been his custom for the past several fights, expect Thurman to run circles around the ring as he uncorks potshots on Pacquiao. Keith THURMAN SD 12
Ted Sares – I see PACQUIAO winning by MD. As soon as he buzzes Thurman, “One Time” will start running which is his wont. It will be a boring affair unless Thurman tires and Pac catches him.
Phil Woolever — The facts should speak for themselves but I don’t know what they’re saying. Thurman’s resume includes notable victories over Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter and Robert Guerrero. He has lost to no one. Pacquaio has notable victories over Erik Morales (twice), Juan Manuel Marquez (twice plus a draw), Shane Mosley, Timothy Bradley, Jr (twice), Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), rare stoppages of Barrera, Miguel Cotto and Oscar De La Hoya plus a total wipeout of Ricky Hatton. He has highly disputed losses to Bradley and Jeff Horn, a basic shutout to Floyd Mayweather, Jr, a one punch splattering by a possibly enhanced Marquez and a loss to a near prime Morales. Maybe his early stoppage losses to Boonsai Sangsurat and Rustico Torrecampo offer clues I miss. No prediction here, logical or otherwise. I have no idea what to expect except that’s something that makes a great fight.
Observation: There was a distinct lean to Keith Thurman, but the operative word here is “lean.” A more general consensus is that this fight will go to the scorecards with the impending verdict no foregone conclusion.
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Bivol Evens the Score with Beterbiev; Parker and Stevenson Win Handily
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It was labeled the best boxing card in history.
That’s up for debate.
And there was some debate as Dmitry Bivol avenged his loss to Artur Beterbiev to become the new undisputed light heavyweight world champion on Saturday by majority decision in a tactical battle.
“He gave me this chance and I appreciate it,” said Bivol of Beterbiev.
Bivol (24-1, 12 KOs) rallied from behind to give Beterbiev (21-1, 20 KOs) his first pro loss in their rematch at a sold out crowd in the Venue Riyadh Season in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Like their first encounter the rematch was also very close.
Four months ago, these two faced each other as undefeated light heavyweights. Now, after two furious engagements, both have losses.
Beterbiev was making his first defense as undisputed light heavyweight champion and made adjustments from their first match. This time the Russian fighter who trains in Canada concentrated on a body attack and immediately saw dividends.
For most of the first six rounds it seemed Beterbiev would slowly grind down Bivol until he reached an unsurmountable lead. But despite the momentum he never could truly hurt Bivol or gain separation.
Things turned around in the seventh round as Bivol opened up with combinations to the head and body while slipping Beterbiev’s blows. It was a sudden swing of momentum. But how long could it last?
“It was hard to keep him at the distance. I had to be smarter and punch more clean punches,” said Bivol.
Beterbiev attempted to regain the momentum but Bivol was not allowing it to happen. In the final 10 seconds he opened up with a machine gun combination. Though few of the punches connected it became clear he was not going to allow unclarity.
Using strategic movement Bivol laced quick combinations and immediately departed. Betebiev seemed determined to counter the fleet fighter but was unsuccessful for much of the second half of the fight.
Around the 10th round Beterbiev stepped on the gas with the same formula of working the body and head. It gave Bivol pause but he still unleashed quick combos to keep from being overrun.
Bivol connected with combinations and Beterbiev connected with single body and head shots. It was going to be tough for the referees to decide which attack they preferred. After 12 rounds with no knockdowns one judge saw it a draw at 114-114. But two others saw Bivol the winner 116-112, 115-113.
“I was better. I was pushing myself more, I was lighter. I just wanted to win so much today,” said Bivol.
Beterbiev was gracious in defeat.
“Congratulations to Bivol’s team” said Beterbiev. “I think this fight was better than the first fight.”
After the match it was discussed that an effort to make a third fight is a strong possibility.
Heavyweight KO by Parker
Joseph Parker (36-3, 24 KOs) once again proved he could be the best heavyweight without a world title in knocking out the feared Martin Bakole (21-2, 16 KOs) to retain his WBO interim title. It was quick and decisive.
“Catch him when he is coming in,” said Parker, 33, about his plan.
After original foe IBF heavyweight titlist Daniel Dubois was forced to withdraw due to illness, Bakole willingly accepted the match with only two days’ notice. Many experts and fans around the world were surprised and excited Parker accepted the match.
Ever since Parker lost to Joe Joyce in 2022, the New Zealander has proven to be vastly improved with wins over Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang. Now you can add Bakole to the list of conquests.
Bakole, 33, was coming off an impressive knockout win last July and posed a serious threat if he connected with a punch. The quick-handed Bakole at 310 pounds and a two-inch height advantage is always dangerous.
In the first round Parker was wary of the fighter from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He kept his range and moved around the ring looking to poke a jab and move. Bakole caught him twice with blows and Parker retaliated.
It proved to be a very important test.
Parker refrained from moving and instead moved inside range of the big African fighter. Both exchanged liberally with Bakole connecting with an uppercut and Parker an overhand right.
Bakole shook his head at the blow he absorbed.
Both re-engaged and fired simultaneously. Parker’s right connected to the top of the head of Bakole who shuddered and stumbled and down he went and could not beat the count. The referee stopped the heavyweight fight at 2:17 of the second round. Parker retains his interim title by knockout.
“I’m strong, I’m healthy, I’m sharp,” said Parker. “I had to be patient.”
Shakur Wins
Despite an injured left hand southpaw WBC lightweight titlist Shakur Stevenson (23-0, 11 KOs) won by stoppage over late replacement Josh Padley (15-1, 6 KOs). It was an impressive accomplishment.
Often criticized for his lack of action and safety-first style, Stevenson was supposed to fight undefeated Floyd Schofield who pulled out due to illness. In stepped British lightweight Padley who had nothing to lose.
Padley was never hesitant to engage with the super-quick Stevenson and despite the lightning-quick combos by the champion, the British challenger exchanged liberally. It just wasn’t enough.
Even when Stevenson injured his left hand during an exchange in the sixth round, Padley just couldn’t take advantage. The speedy southpaw kept shooting the right jabs and ripping off right hooks. At the end of the sixth Stevenson briefly switched to a right-handed fighting style.
Stevenson used his right jabs and hooks to perfection. Double right hooks to the head and body seemed to affect the British challenger. A clean left to the body of Padley sent him to the floor for the count in the ninth round. It was a surprising knockdown due to his injured left. Padley got up and the fight resumed. Stevenson unloaded with right hooks to the body and down went the British fighter once again. He got up and tried to fight his way out but was met with another left to the body and down he went a third time. Padley’s corner tossed in a white towel to signify surrender. The referee stopped the fight at the end of the round. Stevenson scored his 11th knockout win.
Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom
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Early Results from Riyadh where Hamzah Sheeraz was Awarded a Gift Draw
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After two 6-round appetizers, British light heavyweights Joshua Buatsi and Callum Smith got the show rolling with a lusty 12-round skirmish. Things went south in the middle of the seven-fight main card when WBC middleweight champion Carlos Adames locked horns with challenger Hamzah Sheeraz. This was a drab fight owing to a milquetoast performance by the favored Sheeraz.
Heading in, the lanky six-foot-three Sheeraz, whose physique is mindful of a young Thomas Hearns, was undefeated in 21 fights. Having stopped five of his last six opponents in two rounds or less, the 25-year-old Englishman was touted as the next big thing in the middleweight division. However, he fought off his back foot the entire contest, reluctant to let his hands go, and Adames kept his title when the bout was scored a draw.
Sheeraz had the crowd in his corner and two of the judges scored the match with their ears. Their tallies were 115-114 for Sheeraz and 114-114. The third judge had it 118-110 for Adames, the 30-year old Dominican, now 24-1-1, who had Ismael Salas in his corner.
Ortiz-Madrimov
Super welterweight Vergil Ortiz Jr, knocked out his first 21 opponents, begging the question of how he would react when he finally faced adversity. He showed his mettle in August of last year when he went a sizzling 12 rounds with fellow knockout artist Serhii Bohachuk, winning a hard-fought decision. Tonight he added another feather in his cap with a 12-round unanimous decision over Ismail Madrimov, prevailing on scores of 117-111 and 115-113 twice.
Ortiz won by adhering tight to Robert Garcia’s game plan. The elusive Madrimov, who bounces around the ring like the energizer bunny, won the early rounds. But eventually Ortiz was able to cut the ring off and turned the tide in his favor by landing the harder punches. It was the second straight loss for Madrimov (10-2-1), a decorated amateur who had lost a close but unanimous decision to Terence Crawford in his previous bout.
Kabayel-Zhang
No heavyweight has made greater gains in the last 15 months than Agit Kabayel. The German of Kurdish descent, whose specialty is body punching, made his third straight appearance in Riyadh tonight and, like in the previous two, fashioned a knockout. Today, although out-weighed by more than 40 pounds, he did away with Zhilei “Big Bang” Zhang in the sixth round.
It didn’t start out well for Kabayel. The New Jersey-based, six-foot-six Zhang, a two-time Olympian for China, started fast and plainly won the opening round. Kabayel beat him to the punch from that point on, save for one moment when Zhang put him on the canvas with a straight left hand.
That happened in the fifth round, but by the end of the frame, the 41-year-old Zhang was conspicuously gassed. The end for the big fellow came at the 2:29 mark of round six when he couldn’t beat the count after crumbling to the canvas in a delayed reaction after taking a hard punch to his flabby midsection.
Kabayel remains undefeated at 26-0 (18 KOs). Zhang (27-3-1) hadn’t previously been stopped.
Smith-Buatsi
The all-British showdown between light heavyweights Joshua Buatsi and Callum Smith was a grueling, fan-friendly affair. A former 168-pound world title-holder, Smith, 34, won hard-earned unanimous decision, prevailing on scores of 115-113, 116-112, and a ludicrous 119-110.
There were no knockdowns, but Liverpool’s Smith, who advanced to 31-2 (22) finished the contest with a bad gash in the corner of his right eye. It was the first pro loss for Buatsi (19-1), an Olympic bronze medalist who entered the contest a small favorite and was the defending “interim” title-holder.
This contest was also a battle of wits between two of America’s most prominent trainers, Buddy McGirt (Smith) and Virgil Hunter (Buatsi).
Check back shortly for David Avila’s wrap-up of the last three fights.
Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom
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Cain Sandoval KOs Mark Bernaldez in the Featured Bout at Santa Ynez
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Northern California’s Cain Sandoval remained undefeated with a knockout win over Mark Bernaldez in a super lightweight battle on Friday on a 360 Promotions card.
Sandoval (15-0, 13 KOs) of Sacramento needed four rounds to figure out tough Filipino fighter Bernaldez (25-7, 14 KOs) in front of a packed crowd at Chumash Casino in Santa Ynez.
Bernaldez had gone eight rounds against Mexico’s very tough Oscar Duarte. He showed no fear for Sandoval’s reputed power and both fired bombs at each other from the second round on.
Things turned in favor of Sandoval when he targeted the body and soon had Bernaldez in retreat. It was apparent Sandoval had discovered a weakness.
In the beginning of the fourth Sandoval fired a stiff jab to the body that buckled Bernaldez but he did not go down. And when both resumed in firing position Sandoval connected with an overhand right and down went the Filipino fighter. He was counted out by referee Rudy Barragan at 34 seconds of the round.
“I’m surprised he took my jab to the body. I respect that. I have a knockout and I’m happy about that,” Sandoval said.
Other Bouts
Popular female fighter Lupe Medina (9-0) remained undefeated with a solid victory over the determined Agustina Vazquez (4-3-2) by unanimous decision after eight rounds in a minimumweight fight between Southern Californians.
Early on Vazquez gave Medina trouble disrupting her patter with solid jabs. And when Medina overloaded with combination punches, she was laced with counters from Vazquez during the first four rounds.
Things turned around in the fifth round as Medina used a jab to keep Vazquez at a preferred distance. And when she attacked it was no more than two-punch combination and maintaining a distance.
Vazquez proved determined but discovered clinching was not a good idea as Medina took advantage and overran her with blows. Still, Vazquez looked solid. All three judges saw it 79-73 for Medina.
A battle between Southern Californian’s saw Compton’s Christopher Rios (11-2) put on the pressure all eight rounds against Eastvale’s Daniel Barrera (8-1-1) and emerged the winner by majority decision in a flyweight battle.
It was Barrera’s first loss as a pro. He never could discover how to stay off the ropes and that proved his downfall. Neither fighter was knocked down but one judge saw it 76-76, and two others 79-73 for Rios.
In a welterweight fight Gor Yeritsyan (20-1,16 KOs) scorched Luis Ramos (23-7) with a 12-punch combination the sent him to the mat in the second round. After Ramos beat the count he was met with an eight punch volley and the fight was stopped at 2:11 of the second round by knockout.
Super feather prospect Abel Mejia (7-0, 5 KOs) floored Alfredo Diaz (9-12) in the fifth round but found the Mexican fighter to be very durable in their six-round fight. Mejia caught Diaz with a left hook in the fifth round for a knockdown. But the fight resumed with all three judges scoring it 60-53 for Mejia who fights out of El Modena, Calif.
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