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The Official TSS Pacquiao – Thurman Prediction Page

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The Official TSS Pacquiao – Thurman Prediction Page

Boxing promoters like to boast that their latest offering is a 50-50 fight. A glance at the available betting odds informs us this attestation is usually bunk.

Not so Saturday’s Pacquiao-Thurman fight, a match where the 50-50 tag is no bull. The oddsmakers opened Thurman a slight favorite, at last glance the other guy was favored, and it wouldn’t surprise us if the pendulum swings back. There’s a considerable amount of “sharp money” on both sides of this proposition and that doesn’t happen very often.

As is our custom when there is a big fight, we survey members of our editorial staff to get their opinions and we list the respondents alphabetically. Comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, whose specialty is combat sports, provided the graphic. Check out more of Rob Ayala’s illustrations at his web site fight posium.

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Matt Andrzejewski — Pacquiao has looked tremendous in his two most recent outings and that has many people thinking he is still at the top of his game. But let’s put those performances in context. One was against a shopworn Lucas Matthysse; the other against a low volume output fighter in Adrien Broner who stylistically played right into Pacquiao’s hands. Thurman shook off the rust in his last fight and is just entering the prime of his career. I think Pacquiao looks his age and THURMAN coasts to a wide decision victory.

Rick Assad — This will be a test of wills and both will be in superb shape, but every factor is in Thurman’s favor, including age, height and punching power. Thurman, who has won 29 straight, 22 via knockout, has disposed of Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo, Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia and Josesito Lopez over the last 52 months, while in Pac-Man’s last six fights, he’s 4-2 with losses to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Jeff Horn. If this fight took place seven years ago, Pacquiao would win based on hand and foot speed, but it’s 2019 and he will find himself on the short end of the stick. THURMAN by split decision.

Bernard Fernandez – I have always been a fan of the Manny Pacquiao I saw beat the hell out of Ledwaba in his U.S. debut and evolve into an all-time great. But even great fighters yield bits and pieces of their special gifts to the inexorable march of time. Manny is 40, and there is ample evidence that while he has maintained his speed, his vaunted punching power has clearly ebbed. Not that this should be a replay of Sugar Ray Leonard vs. Terry Norris, but I have to side with the younger, undefeated guy. Keith THURMAN doesn’t score the knockout he has promised to deliver, but he does enough to come away with a UD or MD.

Jeffrey Freeman — Keith THURMAN MD12. It won’t be easy in there on the inside but Keith Thurman has the physical range and the closer-to-peak skills needed to carefully outbox an aging but still fit Manny Pacquiao. Thurman survives some shaky moments early to the body, harnesses Manny down the stretch and hears the announcer say he won while simultaneously hearing boos from the crowd unsatisfied with “One Time’s” performance and the off-kilter scoring. As is his wont when he loses, Manny sheds no tears over his now eighth L and “Pac-Man” gobbles up another nice check.

Thomas Hauser — Pacquiao isn’t going to get better at this stage of his career. The open issue regarding Manny is the slope of his decline. By contrast, Thurman has been plagued by injuries and the possible loss of motivation but is young enough to successfully rebound. The big open issue regarding Keith is, “How far has he come back?” My guess is that THURMAN will become more dominant as the fight goes on. How hard he pushes this advantage will determine whether he wins by decision or late stoppage.

Miguel Iturrate – Pacquiao has looked rejuvenated, or at least fully recovered from the shoulder injury that affected his Mayweather performance. He did not look 40 years old against Matthysse and Broner. On the other hand, Thurman is fresh off a long layoff but his most recent outing against veteran Josesito Lopez left some questions. Add to this the news that the fighters will not be subject to VADA testing, and I suspect that we are going to get a pretty sharp version of the Pac-man. I’m going to go with PACQUIAO on this one.

Arne Lang – I envision this fight echoing Thurman’s 2016 fight with Shawn Porter. Keith Thurman fought that fight on the retreat, frequently with his back against the ropes, but won seven of the 12 rounds on all three scorecards. I look for another close and potentially unpopular decision with the nod going against the Senator. THURMAN-Porter was a lollapalooza. Perhaps we’ll get lucky again.

Kelsey McCarson — I like Pacquiao by decision. A good rule of thumb for people like me who like to pick fights is to never back a fighter over 35. Pacquiao is 40 now, and he’s nowhere near the elite specimen he was ten years ago. But backing Pacquiao in his last fight against the much younger Adrien Broner made sense, and I think breaking my rule in this case for Pacquiao-Thurman does, too. Thurman has a quality resume, but I’m guessing somewhere inside he knows he’s not quite a great welterweight. That’s probably why he wanted no part of Errol Spence and probably also what led to him being out of the ring for so long during recent years. The fight will be competitive, but PACQUIAO will throw and land more punches while Thurman will mostly try to move and box off his backfoot once he gets a taste of Pacquiao’s power.

Matt McGrain — “Last time I knew Manny Pacquiao was going to win he lost to Jeff Horn. On the other hand, picking against a living legend like Manny is just not a thing I can do happily. So, it’s dry, and it’s sad then, that I’m picking Keith THURMAN, but the point at which my heart rules my head has been reached and breached. Too big, too tough. The tipping point with Manny has also been reached and breached, I think. I really am looking forward to his proving me wrong.”

Sean Nam — As impressive as it may have been to see 40-year-old Manny Pacquiao outpoint loudmouth dilettante Adrien Broner, it should not disguise the fact that the full-time Senator has been on the decline for nearly a decade. Indeed, by agreeing to face Keith Thurman, the natural welterweight with perhaps the best resume in the division, Pacquiao will be trading punches with a world-class opponent in his prime, a circumstance not seen since at least 2016, when he rematched Timothy Bradley Jr. Of course, Thurman has his own laundry list of caveats. After a two-year period of inactivity and injuries, Thurman returned to the ring earlier this year in a virtual tune-up against Josesito Lopez. Though he won wide on points, he was wobbled badly midway through the fight. Also to consider is the fact that Thurman has not had a clear-cut knockout victory since he fought Julio Diaz in 2014, a sign that perhaps he does not hit as hard as some think. Thurman is not likely to knock out a proven, stone cold competitor like Pacquiao, but he has the athletic credentials — and enough power — to edge the aging icon on the scorecards. As has been his custom for the past several fights, expect Thurman to run circles around the ring as he uncorks potshots on Pacquiao. Keith THURMAN SD 12

Ted Sares – I see PACQUIAO winning by MD. As soon as he buzzes Thurman, “One Time” will start running which is his wont. It will be a boring affair unless Thurman tires and Pac catches him.

Phil Woolever — The facts should speak for themselves but I don’t know what they’re saying. Thurman’s resume includes notable victories over Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter and Robert Guerrero. He has lost to no one. Pacquaio has notable victories over Erik Morales (twice), Juan Manuel Marquez (twice plus a draw), Shane Mosley, Timothy Bradley, Jr (twice), Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), rare stoppages of Barrera, Miguel Cotto and Oscar De La Hoya plus a total wipeout of Ricky Hatton. He has highly disputed losses to Bradley and Jeff Horn, a basic shutout to Floyd Mayweather, Jr, a one punch splattering by a possibly enhanced Marquez and a loss to a near prime Morales. Maybe his early stoppage losses to Boonsai Sangsurat and Rustico Torrecampo offer clues I miss. No prediction here, logical or otherwise. I have no idea what to expect except that’s something that makes a great fight.

Observation: There was a distinct lean to Keith Thurman, but the operative word here is “lean.” A more general consensus is that this fight will go to the scorecards with the impending verdict no foregone conclusion.

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Usyk Outpoints Fury and Itauma has the “Wow Factor” in Riyadh

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Usyk Outpoints Fury and Itauma has the “Wow Factor” in Riyadh

Oleksandr Usyk left no doubt that he is the best heavyweight of his generation and one of the greatest boxers of all time with a unanimous decision over Tyson Fury tonight at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. But although the Ukrainian won eight rounds on all three scorecards, this was no runaway. To pirate a line from one of the DAZN talking heads, Fury had his moments in every round but Usyk had more moments.

The early rounds were fought at a faster pace than the first meeting back in May. At the mid-point, the fight was even. The next three rounds – the next five to some observers – were all Usyk who threw more punches and landed the cleaner shots.

Fury won the final round in the eyes of this reporter scoring at home, but by then he needed a knockout to pull the match out of the fire.

The last round was an outstanding climax to an entertaining chess match during which both fighters took turns being the pursuer and the pursued.

An Olympic gold medalist and a unified world champion at cruiserweight and heavyweight, the amazing Usyk improved his ledger to 23-0 (14). His next fight, more than likely, will come against the winner of the Feb. 22 match in Ridayh between Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker which will share the bill with the rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol.

Fury (34-2-1) may fight Anthony Joshua next. Regardless, no one wants a piece of Moses Itauma right now although the kid is only 19 years old.

Moses Itauma

Raised in London by a Nigerian father and a Slovakian mother, Itauma turned heads once again with another “wow” performance. None of his last seven opponents lasted beyond the second round.

His opponent tonight, 34-year-old Australian Demsey McKean, lasted less than two minutes. Itauma, a southpaw with blazing fast hands, had the Aussie on the deck twice during the 117-second skirmish. The first knockdown was the result of a cuffing punch that landed high on the head; the second knockdown was produced by an overhand left. McKean went down hard as his chief cornerman bounded on to the ring apron to halt the massacre.

Photo (c);Mark Robinson/Matchroom

Photo (c): Mark Robinson

Itauma (12-0, 10 KOs after going 20-0 as an amateur) is the real deal. It was the second straight loss for McKean (22-2) who lasted into the 10th round against Filip Hrgovic in his last start.

Bohachuk-Davis

In a fight billed as the co-main although it preceded Itauma-McKean, Serhii Bohachuk, an LA-based Ukrainian, stopped Ishmael Davis whose corner pulled him out after six frames.

Both fighters were coming off a loss in fights that were close on the scorecards, Bohachuk falling to Vergil Ortiz Jr in a Las Vegas barnburner and Davis losing to Josh Kelly.

Davis, who took the fight on short notice, subbing for Ismail Madrimov, declined to 13-2. He landed a few good shots but was on the canvas in the second round, compliments of a short left hook, and the relentless Bohachuk (25-2, 24 KOs) eventually wore him down.

Fisher-Allen

In a messy, 10-round bar brawl masquerading as a boxing match, Johnny Fisher, the Romford Bull, won a split decision over British countryman David Allen. Two judges favored Fisher by 95-94 tallies with the dissenter favoring Allen 96-93. When the scores were announced, there was a chorus of boos and those watching at home were outraged.

Allen was a step up in class for Fisher. The Doncaster man had a decent record (23-5-2 heading in) and had been routinely matched tough (his former opponents included Dillian Whyte, Luis “King Kong” Ortiz and three former Olympians). But Allen was fairly considered no more than a journeyman and Fisher (12-0 with 11 KOs, eight in the opening round) was a huge favorite.

In round five, Allen had Fisher on the canvas twice although only one was ruled a true knockdown. From that point, he landed the harder shots and, at the final bell, he fell to canvas shedding tears of joy, convinced that he had won.

He did not win, but he exposed Johnny Fisher as a fighter too slow to compete with elite heavyweights, a British version of the ponderous Russian-Canadian campaigner Arslanbek Makhmudov.

Other Bouts of Note

In a spirited 10-round featherweight match, Scotland’s Lee McGregor, a former European bantamweight champion and stablemate of former unified 140-pound title-holder Josh Taylor, advanced to 15-1-1 (11) with a unanimous decision over Isaac Lowe (25-3-3). The judges had it 96-92 and 97-91 twice.

A cousin and regular houseguest of Tyson Fury, Lowe fought most of the fight with cuts around both eyes and was twice deducted a point for losing his gumshield.

In a fight between super featherweights that could have gone either way, Liverpool southpaw Peter McGrail improved to 11-1 (6) with a 10-round unanimous decision over late sub Rhys Edwards. The judges had it 96-95 and 96-94 twice.

McGrail, a Tokyo Olympian and 2018 Commonwealth Games gold medalist, fought from the third round on with a cut above his right eye, the result of an accidental clash of heads. It was the first loss for Edwards (16-1), a 24-year-old Welshman who has another fight booked in three weeks.

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

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Fury-Usyk Reignited: Can the Gypsy King Avenge his Lone Defeat?

In professional boxing, the heavyweight division, going back to the days of John L. Sullivan, is the straw that stirs the drink. By this measure, the fight on May 18 of this year at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was the biggest prizefight in decades. The winner would emerge as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since 1999 when Lennox Lewis out-pointed Evander Holyfield in their second meeting.

The match did not disappoint. It had several twists and turns.

Usyk did well in the early rounds, but the Gypsy King rattled Usyk with a harsh right hand in the fifth stanza and won rounds five through seven on all three cards. In the ninth, the match turned sharply in favor of the Ukrainian. Fury was saved by the bell after taking a barrage of unanswered punches, the last of which dictated a standing 8-count from referee Mark Nelson. But Fury weathered the storm and with his amazing powers of recuperation had a shade the best of it in the final stanza.

The decision was split: 115-112 and 114-113 for Usyk who became a unified champion in a second weight class; 114-113 for Fury.

That brings us to tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 21) where Usyk and Fury will renew acquaintances in the same ring where they had their May 18 showdown.

The first fight was a near “pick-‘em” affair with Fury closing a very short favorite at most of the major bookmaking establishments. The Gypsy King would have been a somewhat higher favorite if not for the fact that he was coming off a poor showing against MMA star Francis Ngannou and had a worrisome propensity for getting cut. (A cut above Fury’s right eye in sparring pushed back the fight from its original Feb. 11 date.)

Tomorrow’s sequel, bearing the tagline “Reignited,” finds Usyk a consensus 7/5 favorite although those odds could shorten by post time. (There was no discernible activity after today’s weigh-in where Fury, fully clothed, topped the scales at 281, an increase of 19 pounds over their first meeting.)

Given the politics of boxing, anything “undisputed” is fragile. In June, Usyk abandoned his IBF belt and the organization anointed Daniel Dubois their heavyweight champion based upon Dubois’s eighth-round stoppage of Filip Hrgovic in a bout billed for the IBF interim title. The malodorous WBA, a festering boil on the backside of boxing, now recognizes 43-year-old Kubrat Pulev as its “regular” heavyweight champion.

Another difference between tomorrow’s fight card and the first installment is that the May 18 affair had a much stronger undercard. Two strong pairings were the rematch between cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Maris Briedis (Opetaia UD 12) and the heavyweight contest between unbeatens Agit Kabayal and Frank Sanchez (Kabayel KO 7).

Tomorrow’s semi-wind-up between Serhii Bohachuk and Ismail Madrimov lost luster when Madrimov came down with bronchitis and had to withdraw. The featherweight contest between Peter McGrail and Dennis McCann fell out when McCann’s VADA test returned an adverse finding. Bohachuk and McGrail remain on the card but against late-sub opponents in matches that are less intriguing.

The focal points of tomorrow’s undercard are the bouts involving undefeated British heavyweights Moses Itauma (10-0, 8 KOs) and Johnny Fisher (12-0, 11 KOs). Both are heavy favorites over their respective opponents but bear watching because they represent the next generation of heavyweight standouts. Fury and Usyk are getting long in the tooth. The Gypsy King is 36; Usyk turns 38 next month.

Bob Arum once said that nobody purchases a pay-per-view for the undercard and, years from now, no one will remember which sanctioning bodies had their fingers in the pie. So, Fury-Usyk II remains a very big deal, although a wee bit less compelling than their first go-around.

Will Tyson Fury avenge his lone defeat? Turki Alalshikh, the Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and the unofficial czar of “major league” boxing, certainly hopes so. His Excellency has made known that he stands poised to manufacture a rubber match if Tyson prevails.

We could have already figured this out, but Alalshikh violated one of the protocols of boxing when he came flat out and said so. He effectively made Tyson Fury the “A-side,” no small potatoes considering that the most relevant variable on the checklist when handicapping a fight is, “Who does the promoter need?”

The Uzyk-Fury II fight card will air on DAZN with a suggested list price of $39.99 for U.S. fight fans. The main event is expected to start about 5:45 pm ET / 2:45 pm PT.

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

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Unheralded Bruno Surace went to Tijuana and Forged the TSS 2024 Upset of the Year

The Dec. 14 fight at Tijuana between Jaime Munguia and Bruno Surace was conceived as a stay-busy fight for Munguia. The scuttlebutt was that Munguia’s promoters, Zanfer and Top Rank, wanted him to have another fight under his belt before thrusting him against Christian Mbilli in a WBC eliminator with the prize for the winner (in theory) a date with Canelo Alvarez.

Munguia came to the fore in May of 2018 at Verona, New York, when he demolished former U.S. Olympian Sadam Ali, conqueror of Miguel Cotto. That earned him the WBO super welterweight title which he successfully defended five times.

Munguia kept winning as he moved up in weight to middleweight and then super middleweight and brought a 43-0 (34) record into his Cinco de Mayo 2024 match with Canelo.

Jaime went the distance with Alvarez and had a few good moments while losing a unanimous decision. He rebounded with a 10th-round stoppage of Canada’s previously undefeated Erik Bazinyan.

There was little reason to think that Munguia would overlook Surace as the Mexican would be fighting in his hometown for the first time since February of 2022 and would want to send the home folks home happy. Moreover, even if Munguia had an off-night, there was no reason to think that the obscure Surace could capitalize. A Frenchman who had never fought outside France,  Surace brought a 25-0-2 record and a 22-fight winning streak, but he had only four knockouts to his credit and only eight of his wins had come against opponents with winning records.

It appeared that Munguia would close the show early when he sent the Frenchman to the canvas in the second round with a big left hook. From that point on, Surace fought mostly off his back foot, throwing punches in spurts, whereas the busier Munguia concentrated on chopping him down with body punches. But Surace absorbed those punches well and at the midway point of the fight, behind on the cards but nonplussed,  it now looked as if the bout would go the full 10 rounds with Munguia winning a lopsided decision.

Then lightning struck. Out of the blue, Surace connected with an overhand right to the jaw. Munguia went down flat on his back. He rose a fraction-of-a second before the count reached “10,”, but stumbled as he pulled himself upright. His eyes were glazed and referee Juan Jose Ramirez, a local man, waived it off. There was no protest coming from Munguia or his cornermen. The official time was 2:36 of round six.

At major bookmaking establishments, Jaime Munguia was as high as a 35/1 favorite. No world title was at stake, yet this was an upset for the ages.

Photo credit: Mikey Williams / Top Rank

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