The TSS Prediction Page Returns with Picks and Analyses of Canelo vs Kovalev

Published

6 years ago

October 31, 2019

The-TSS-Prediction-Page-Returns-With-Picks-and-Analyses-of-Canelo-vs-Kovalev

Whenever there is a big fight with a high level of intrigue, we survey members of our writing community to get their thoughts. Saturday’s fight in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev for Kovalev’s WBO title certainly qualifies. Under the old (and not yet quite dead) economic model, this would have been a pay-per view fight. Instead, it will be live-streamed in the United States and throughout most of the world to DAZN subscribers.

As is our custom, we our listing our panelists alphabetically, but this time with the exception that the editor has pulled rank and reserved the right to go last. The graphic is by Colorado comic book cover artist ROB AYALA whose work is attracting a lot of buzz. Ayala’s specialty is combat sports. Check out more of his work at his web site fight posium.

PREDICTIONS

Everybody knows Kovalev has two major susceptibilities. Body punching and endurance. But people do forget that Kovalev has excellent overall and underrated boxing skills. I see Kovalev giving Canelo trouble in the first six rounds. But Kovalev’s susceptibilities can’t be overlooked and I see him fading badly in the second half of the fight. This contest ultimately will be a mirror image of Ward-Kovalev II. Canelo TKO 8. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

Saul Alvarez might be the best pound-for-pound boxer working today and on November 2 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, he will seize Sergey Kovalev’s World Boxing Organization’s light heavyweight belt. It won’t be easy, but Alvarez will emerge with a split decision victory because he’s too strong and too wise. – RICK ASSAD

This fight reminds me of Roy Jones Jr.’s challenge of the much larger WBA heavyweight champion, John Ruiz. RJJ figured — and he was proven correct — that his skill level was so superior to Ruiz’s that the size differential wouldn’t matter much. As boxing’s premier cash cow, Canelo, DAZN and Golden Boy all had to figure he has to be similarly better than an older, naturally bigger and perhaps diminished Kovalev, who, as we learned from his fights with Andre Ward, doesn’t much like getting hit to the body. My call: Canelo by unanimous decision, whereupon he moves right back down to middleweight. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

Canelo Alvarez has a knack for winning competitive fights against good fighters. Don’t expect that to change against Sergey Kovalev at light heavy. Canelo will probably eat some hard punches but the work he does on the inside will have a greater effect on Kovalev’s momentum. All things being close to equal, it’s Kovalev giving ground and Canelo stepping forward to claim and defend it. Canelo close UD. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

While Alvarez is indeed taking a calculated risk in moving up to light heavyweight, most of the data (beyond the size difference) supports Alvarez winning the fight. Alvarez is still just 29 years old, which is kind of amazing if you think about all that he’s already accomplished. Kovalev is seven years older, in clear decline, and has lost three of his last seven fights. Still, I think it’s a really close fight where Kovalev’s jab gives Alvarez real issues. I like Alvarez via majority decision in a fight many people think could have gone either way. – KELSEY McCARSON

History appears to be against Alvarez, but as always, the diminishing value of “world” titles has a role to play here. Canelo isn’t stepping up to take on the very best light-heavyweight in the world – that’s Artur Beterbiev. Still, knocking off one of the top men in a weight division so far removed from that in which a 5’8 fighter like Alvarez belongs would be so impressive I hesitate to pick him. But I do pick him. Disaster might unfold at any moment for the Mexican but I think he’ll struggle through to win one on the cards. His timing is good here, the sense that Kovalev is ready to be taken has been growing. The key round in this fight might be thrilling. – MATT McGRAIN

No doubt, Canelo Alvarez will be the smaller man — and the lesser puncher — when he enters the ring against light heavyweight titleholder Sergey Kovalev on Saturday. But Alvarez will definitely be the fresher of the two. He is also the more well-rounded fighter, and that may be the only key difference of what figures to be a coin-flip fight. Look for Kovalev to have some success early on with his jab, but expect Alvarez to make adjustments, administering punishing counters to the head and body. Alvarez by UD – SEAN NAM

Since Canelo is at the top of my current P4P list and the Russian is nowhere in sight, this one is not all that difficult. The fight will be pretty even during the first three feel-out rounds and then Canelo will start launching deadly left hooks upstairs and to the body in rapid combinations. Krusher will begin to break down around the 8th or 9^th, at which point Canelo will pick his spots with damaging work, especially downstairs. Kovalev, unable to contend with Canelo’s defensive skills, will either get knocked out late or lose by dominant UD. – TED SARES

I’m going with the younger Canelo on the basis of age, wear and tear. He seems to be improving while, with seven years more mileage, Kovalev has faded from his days as a monster. The wild card could be how much weight Sergey adds after the weigh-in, and if the proportional bulk throws Alvarez off his game plan. A very intriguing match. – PHIL WOOLEVER

I respect the opinions of our savvy TSS wordsmiths, but I am compelled to play devil’s advocate and take the road less traveled, mindful that the world’s best sports gamblers are contrarians. In his rematch with Eleider Alvarez, Kovalev looked like a different fighter than he was in their first encounter. In his last start against Anthony Yarde, a big puncher, he was nearly bombed out in the eighth round but kept his composure and regained the upper hand. What these two fights have in common is Hall of Fame trainer Buddy McGirt, who hadn’t previously worked with Kovalev. In a close fight, Krusher prevails, rejuvenating the hoary adage that a good big man will always beat a good little man – ARNE LANG

Check out more boxing news on video at The Boxing Channel

To comment on this story in The Fight Forum CLICK HERE

Post Views: 0

Share The Sweet Science experience!

The Sweet Science

Up Next

Canelo and ‘KingRy’ — Master and Pupil — Enter Danger Zone in Las Vegas

Don't Miss

Victor Oganov, a Fireball Coming Out of the Amateurs, Keeps Plugging Away

Jorge Garcia is the TSS Fighter of the Month for April

Published

2 days ago

April 28, 2025

Arne K. Lang

Jorge-Garcia-is-the-TSS-Fighter-of-the-Month-for-April

Jorge Garcia has a lot in common with Mexican countrymen Emanuel Navarrete and Rafael Espinoza. In common with those two, both reigning world title-holders, Garcia is big for his weight class and bubbled out of obscurity with a triumph forged as a heavy underdog in a match contested on American soil.

Garcia had his “coming of age party” on April 19 in the first boxing event at the new Frontwave Arena in Oceanside, California (roughly 35 miles north of San Diego), a 7,500-seat facility whose primary tenant is an indoor soccer team. It was a Golden Boy Promotions event and in the opposite corner was a Golden Boy fighter, Charles Conwell.

A former U.S. Olympian, Conwell was undefeated (21-0, 16 KOs) and had won three straight inside the distance since hooking up with Golden Boy whose PR department ballyhooed him as the most avoided fighter in the super welterweight division. At prominent betting sites, Conwell was as high as a 12/1 favorite.

The lanky Garcia was 32-4 (26 KOs) heading in, but it was easy to underestimate him as he had fought extensively in Tijuana where the boxing commission is notoriously docile and in his home state of Sinaloa. This would be only his second fight in the U.S. However, it was noteworthy in hindsight that three of his four losses were by split decision.

Garcia vs. Conwell was a robust affair. He and Conwell were credited with throwing 1451 punches combined. In terms of punches landed, there was little to choose between them but the CompuBox operator saw Garcia landing more power punches in eight of the 12 rounds. At the end, the verdict was split but there was no controversy.

An interested observer was Sebastian Fundora who was there to see his sister Gabriela defend her world flyweight titles. Sebastian owns two pieces of the 154-pound world title where the #1 contender per the WBO is Xander Zayas who keeps winning, but not with the verve of his earlier triumphs.

With his upset of Charles Conwell, Jorge Garcia has been bumped into the WBO’s #2 slot. Regardless of who he fights next, Garcia will earn the biggest payday of his career.

Honorable mention: Aaron McKenna

McKenna was favored to beat veteran campaigner Liam Smith in the co-feature to the Eubank-Benn battle this past Saturday in London, but he was stepping up in class against a former world title-holder who had competed against some of the top dogs in the middleweight division and who had famously stopped Chris Eubank Jr in the first of their two encounters. Moreover, the venue, Tottenham Hotspur, the third-largest soccer stadium in England, favored the 36-year-old Liverpudlian who was accustomed to a big fight atmosphere having fought Canelo Alvarez before 50,000-plus at Arlington Stadium in Texas.

McKenna, from the small town of Monaghan, Ireland, wasn’t overwhelmed by the occasion. With his dad Feargal in his corner and his fighting brother Stephen McKenna cheering him on from ringside, Aaron won a wide decision in his first 12-round fight, punctuating his victory by knocking Smith to his knees with a body punch in the 12^th round. In fact, if he hadn’t had a point deducted for using his elbow, the Irishman would have pitched a shutout on one of the scorecards.

“There might not be a more impressive example of a fighter moving up in class,” wrote Tris Dixon of the 25-year-old “Silencer” who improved his ledger to 20-0 (10).

Photo credits: Garcia/Conwell photo compliments of Cris Esqueda/Golden Boy; McKenna-Smith provided by Mark Robinson/Matchroom

To comment on this story in the Fight Forum CLICK HERE

Post Views: 0

Share The Sweet Science experience!

Chris Eubank Jr Outlasts Conor Benn at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Published

3 days ago

April 27, 2025

David A. Avila

Chris-Eubank-Jr-Outlasts-Conor-Benn-at-Tottenham-Hotsour-Stadium

Feudal bragging rights belong to Chris Eubank Jr. who out-lasted Conor Benn to
emerge victorious by unanimous decision in a non-title middleweight match held in
London on Saturday.

Fighting for their family heritage Eubank (35-3, 26 KOs) and Benn (23-1, 14 KOs)
continued the battle between families started 35 years ago by their fathers at Tottenham
Hotspur Stadium.

More than 65,000 fans attended.

Though Eubank Jr. had a weight and height advantage and a record of smashing his
way to victory via knockout, he had problems hurting the quicker and more agile Benn.
And though Benn had the advantage of moving up two weight divisions and forcing
Eubank to fight under a catch weight, the move did not weaken him much.

Instead, British fans and boxing fans across the world saw the two family rivals pummel
each other for all 12 rounds. Neither was able to gain separation.

Eubank looked physically bigger and used a ramming left jab to connect early in the
fight. Benn immediately showed off his speed advantage and surprised many with his
ability to absorb a big blow.Chris Eubank Jr Outlasts Conor Benn at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Benn scrambled around with his quickness and agility and scored often with bigcounters.

It took him a few rounds to stop overextending himself while delivering power shots.

In the third round Benn staggered Eubank with a left hook but was unable to follow up
against the dangerous middleweight who roared back with flurries of blows.

Eubank was methodic in his approach always moving forward, always using his weight
advantage via the shoulder to force Benn backward. The smaller Benn rocketed
overhand rights and was partly successful but not enough to force Eubank to retreat.
In the seventh round a right uppercut snapped Benn’s head violently but he was
undeterred from firing back. Benn’s chin stood firm despite Eubank’s vaunted power and
size advantage.

“I didn’t know he had that in him,” Eubank said.

Benn opened strong in the eighth round with furious blows. And though he connected
he was unable to seriously hurt Eubank. And despite being drained by the weight loss,
the middleweight fighter remained strong all 12 rounds.

There were surprises from both fighters.

Benn was effective targeting the body. Perhaps if he had worked the body earlier he
would have found a better result.

With only two rounds remaining Eubank snapped off a right uppercut again and followed
up with body shots. In the final stanza Eubank pressed forward and exchanged with the
smaller Benn until the final bell. He simply out-landed the fighter and impressed all three
judges who scored it 116-112 for Eubank.

Eubank admitted he expected a knockout win but was satisfied with the victory.
“I under-estimated him,” Eubank said.

Benn was upset by the loss but recognized the reasons.

“He worked harder toward the end,” said Benn.

McKenna Wins

In his first test in the elite level Aaron McKenna (20-0, 10 KOs) showed his ability to fight
inside or out in soundly defeating former world champion Liam Smith (33-5-1, 20 KOs)
by unanimous decision to win a regional WBA middleweight title.

Smith has made a career out of upsetting young upstarts but discovered the Irish fighter
more than capable of mixing it up with the veteran. It was a rough fight throughout the
12 rounds but McKenna showed off his abilities to fight as a southpaw or right-hander
with nary a hiccup.

McKenna had trained in Southern California early in his career and since that time he’s
accrued a variety of ways to fight. He was smooth and relentless in using his longer
arms and agility against Smith on the outside or in close.

In the 12 th round, McKenna landed a perfectly timed left hook to the ribs and down went
Smith. The former champion got up and attempted to knock out the tall
Irish fighter but could not.

All three judges scored in favor of McKenna 119-108, 117-109, 118-108.

Other Bouts
Anthony Yarde (27-3) defeated Lyndon Arthur (24-3) by unanimous decision after 12 rounds. in a light heavyweight match. It was the third time they met. Yarde won the last two fights.

Chris Billam-Smith (21-2) defeated Brandon Glanton (20-3) by decision. It was his first
fight since losing the WBO cruiserweight world title to Gilberto Ramirez last November.

Viddal Riley (13-0) out-worked Cheavon Clarke (10-2) in a 12-round back-and-forth-contest to win a unanimous decision.

To comment on this story in the Fight Forum CLICK HERE

Post Views: 0

Share The Sweet Science experience!

Avila Perspective, Chap. 323: Benn vs Eubank Family Feud and More

Published

6 days ago

April 24, 2025

David A. Avila

Avila-Perspective,-Chap.-323:-Benn-vs-Eubank-Family-Feud-and-More.jpg

Next generation rivals Conor Benn and Chris Eubank Jr. carry on the family legacy of feudal warring in the prize ring on Saturday.

This is huge in British boxing.

Eubank (34-3, 25 KOs) holds the fringe IBO middleweight title but won’t be defending it against the smaller welterweight Benn (23-0, 14 KOs) on Saturday, April 26, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. DAZN will stream the Matchroom Boxing card.

This is about family pride.

The parents of Eubank and Benn actually began the feud in the 1990s.

Papa Nigel Benn fought Papa Chris Eubank twice. Losing as a middleweight in November 1990 at Birmingham, England, then fighting to a draw as a super middleweight in October 1993 in Manchester. Both were world title fights.

Eubank was undefeated and won the WBO middleweight world title in 1990 against Nigel Benn by knockout. He defended it three times before moving up and winning the vacant WBO super middleweight title in September 1991. He defended the super middleweight title 14 times before suffering his first pro defeat in March 1995 against Steve Collins.

Benn won the WBO middleweight title in April 1990 against Doug DeWitt and defended it once before losing to Eubank in November 1990. He moved up in weight and took the WBC super middleweight title from Mauro Galvano in Italy by technical knockout in October 1992. He defended the title nine times until losing in March 1996. His last fight was in November 1996, a loss to Steve Collins.

Animosity between the two families continues this weekend in the boxing ring.

Conor Benn, the son of Nigel, has fought mostly as a welterweight but lately has participated in the super welterweight division. He is several inches shorter in height than Eubank but has power and speed. Kind of a British version of Gervonta “Tank” Davis.

“It’s always personal, every opponent I fight is personal. People want to say it’s strictly business, but it’s never business. If someone is trying to put their hands on me, trying to render me unconscious, it’s never business,” said Benn.

This fight was scheduled twice before and cut short twice due to failed PED tests by Benn. The weight limit agreed upon is 160 pounds.

Eubank, a natural middleweight, has exchanged taunts with Benn for years. He recently avenged a loss to Liam Smith with a knockout victory in September 2023.

“This fight isn’t about size or weight. It’s about skill. It’s about dedication. It’s about expertise and all those areas in which I excel in,” said Eubank. “I have many, many more years of experience over Conor Benn, and that will be the deciding factor of the night.”

Because this fight was postponed twice, the animosity between the two feuding fighters has increased the attention of their fans. Both fighters are anxious to flatten each other.

“He’s another opponent in my way trying to crush my dreams. trying to take food off my plate and trying to render me unconscious. That’s how I look at him,” said Benn.

Eubank smiles.

“Whether it’s boxing, whether it’s a gun fight. Defense, offense, foot movement, speed, power. I am the superior boxer in each of those departments and so many more – which is why I’m so confident,” he said.

Supporting Bout

Former world champion Liam Smith (33-4-1, 20 KOs) tangles with Ireland’s Aaron McKenna (19-0, 10 KOs) in a middleweight fight set for 12 rounds on the Benn-Eubank undercard in London.

“Beefy” Smith has long been known as one of the fighting Smith brothers and recently lost to Eubank a year and a half ago. It was only the second time in 38 bouts he had been stopped. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez did it several years ago.

McKenna is a familiar name in Southern California. The Irish fighter fought numerous times on Golden Boy Promotion cards between 2017 and 2019 before returning to the United Kingdom and his assault on continuing the middleweight division. This is a big step for the tall Irish fighter.

It’s youth versus experience.

“I’ve been calling for big fights like this for the last two or three years, and it’s a fight I’m really excited for. I plan to make the most of it and make a statement win on Saturday night,” said McKenna, one of two fighting brothers.

Monster in L.A.

Japan’s super star Naoya “Monster” Inoue arrived in Los Angeles for last day workouts before his Las Vegas showdown against Ramon Cardenas on Sunday May 4, at T-Mobile Arena. ESPN will televise and stream the Top Rank card.

It’s been four years since the super bantamweight world champion performed in the US and during that time Naoya (29-0, 26 KOs) gathered world titles in different weight divisions. The Japanese slugger has also gained fame as perhaps the best fighter on the planet. Cardenas is 26-1 with 14 KOs.

Pomona Fights

Super featherweights Mathias Radcliffe (9-0-1) and Ezequiel Flores (6-4) lead a boxing card called “DMG Night of Champions” on Saturday April 26, at the historic Fox Theater in downtown Pomona, Calif.

Michaela Bracamontes (11-2-1) and Jesus Torres Beltran (8-4-1) will be fighting for a regional WBC super featherweight title. More than eight bouts are scheduled.

Doors open at 6 p.m. For ticket information go to: www.tix.com/dmgnightofchampions

Fights to Watch

Sat. DAZN 9 a.m. Conor Benn (23-0) vs Chris Eubank Jr. (34-3); Liam Smith (33-4-1) vs Aaron McKenna (19-0).

To comment on this story in the Fight Forum CLICK HERE

Post Views: 0

Share The Sweet Science experience!