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The TSS Prediction Page Returns with Picks and Analyses of Canelo vs Kovalev

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Whenever there is a big fight with a high level of intrigue, we survey members of our writing community to get their thoughts. Saturday’s fight in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev for Kovalev’s WBO title certainly qualifies. Under the old (and not yet quite dead) economic model, this would have been a pay-per view fight. Instead, it will be live-streamed in the United States and throughout most of the world to DAZN subscribers.

As is our custom, we our listing our panelists alphabetically, but this time with the exception that the editor has pulled rank and reserved the right to go last. The graphic is by Colorado comic book cover artist ROB AYALA whose work is attracting a lot of buzz. Ayala’s specialty is combat sports. Check out more of his work at his web site fight posium.

PREDICTIONS

Everybody knows Kovalev has two major susceptibilities. Body punching and endurance. But people do forget that Kovalev has excellent overall and underrated boxing skills. I see Kovalev giving Canelo trouble in the first six rounds. But Kovalev’s susceptibilities can’t be overlooked and I see him fading badly in the second half of the fight. This contest ultimately will be a mirror image of Ward-Kovalev II. Canelo TKO 8. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

*

Saul Alvarez might be the best pound-for-pound boxer working today and on November 2 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, he will seize Sergey Kovalev’s World Boxing Organization’s light heavyweight belt. It won’t be easy, but Alvarez will emerge with a split decision victory because he’s too strong and too wise. – RICK ASSAD

*

This fight reminds me of Roy Jones Jr.’s challenge of the much larger WBA heavyweight champion, John Ruiz. RJJ figured — and he was proven correct — that his skill level was so superior to Ruiz’s that the size differential wouldn’t matter much. As boxing’s premier cash cow, Canelo, DAZN and Golden Boy all had to figure he has to be similarly better than an older, naturally bigger and perhaps diminished Kovalev, who, as we learned from his fights with Andre Ward, doesn’t much like getting hit to the body. My call: Canelo by unanimous decision, whereupon he moves right back down to middleweight. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

*

Canelo Alvarez has a knack for winning competitive fights against good fighters. Don’t expect that to change against Sergey Kovalev at light heavy. Canelo will probably eat some hard punches but the work he does on the inside will have a greater effect on Kovalev’s momentum. All things being close to equal, it’s Kovalev giving ground and Canelo stepping forward to claim and defend it. Canelo close UD. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

*

While Alvarez is indeed taking a calculated risk in moving up to light heavyweight, most of the data (beyond the size difference) supports Alvarez winning the fight. Alvarez is still just 29 years old, which is kind of amazing if you think about all that he’s already accomplished. Kovalev is seven years older, in clear decline, and has lost three of his last seven fights. Still, I think it’s a really close fight where Kovalev’s jab gives Alvarez real issues. I like Alvarez via majority decision in a fight many people think could have gone either way. – KELSEY McCARSON

*

History appears to be against Alvarez, but as always, the diminishing value of “world” titles has a role to play here. Canelo isn’t stepping up to take on the very best light-heavyweight in the world – that’s Artur Beterbiev. Still, knocking off one of the top men in a weight division so far removed from that in which a 5’8 fighter like Alvarez belongs would be so impressive I hesitate to pick him. But I do pick him. Disaster might unfold at any moment for the Mexican but I think he’ll struggle through to win one on the cards. His timing is good here, the sense that Kovalev is ready to be taken has been growing. The key round in this fight might be thrilling. – MATT McGRAIN

*

No doubt, Canelo Alvarez will be the smaller man — and the lesser puncher — when he enters the ring against light heavyweight titleholder Sergey Kovalev on Saturday. But Alvarez will definitely be the fresher of the two. He is also the more well-rounded fighter, and that may be the only key difference of what figures to be a coin-flip fight. Look for Kovalev to have some success early on with his jab, but expect Alvarez to make adjustments, administering punishing counters to the head and body. Alvarez by UD – SEAN NAM

*

Since Canelo is at the top of my current P4P list and the Russian is nowhere in sight, this one is not all that difficult. The fight will be pretty even during the first three feel-out rounds and then Canelo will start launching deadly left hooks upstairs and to the body in rapid combinations. Krusher will begin to break down around the 8th or 9th, at which point Canelo will pick his spots with damaging work, especially downstairs. Kovalev, unable to contend with Canelo’s defensive skills, will either get knocked out late or lose by dominant UD. – TED SARES

*

I’m going with the younger Canelo on the basis of age, wear and tear. He seems to be improving while, with seven years more mileage, Kovalev has faded from his days as a monster. The wild card could be how much weight Sergey adds after the weigh-in, and if the proportional bulk throws Alvarez off his game plan. A very intriguing match. – PHIL WOOLEVER

*

I respect the opinions of our savvy TSS wordsmiths, but I am compelled to play devil’s advocate and take the road less traveled, mindful that the world’s best sports gamblers are contrarians. In his rematch with Eleider Alvarez, Kovalev looked like a different fighter than he was in their first encounter. In his last start against Anthony Yarde, a big puncher, he was nearly bombed out in the eighth round but kept his composure and regained the upper hand. What these two fights have in common is Hall of Fame trainer Buddy McGirt, who hadn’t previously worked with Kovalev. In a close fight, Krusher prevails, rejuvenating the hoary adage that a good big man will always beat a good little man – ARNE LANG

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The Hauser Report: Garcia-Redkach and More

Thomas Hauser

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Boxing made its debut at Barclays Center on October 20, 2012, with a fight card headlined by four world title bouts. Danny Garcia, Erik Morales, Paulie Malignaggi, Peter Quillin, Devon Alexander, Danny Jacobs, and Luis Collazo were in the ring that night. The franchise grew nicely. Fans who went to Barclays saw good featured fights with solid undercard bouts. But as of late, the arena’s fistic offerings have faded.

Barclays cast its lot with Premier Boxing Champions. And PBC has moved its prime content to greener pastures (green being the color of money). There were five fight cards at Barclays Center in 2019. Each one struggled to sell tickets.

January 25 marked the thirty-ninth fight card at Barclays. The arena was half empty. The announced attendance was 8,217 but that included a lot of freebies. There were six fights on the card. As expected, fighters coming out of the blue corner won all of them. That’s what happens when 6-0 squares off against 2-10-1.

Three of the fights were televised by Showtime Championship Boxing, which has also been diminished as a consequence of a multi-year output deal with PBC.

In the first of these bouts, Stephen Fulton (17-0, 8 KOs) and Ukrainian-born Arnold Khegai (16-0, 10 KOs) met in a junior-featherweight bout. Each had fought the usual suspects en route to their confrontation. There was a lot of holding and rabbit-punching which referee Steve Willis ignored. Eventually, Fulton pulled away for a unanimous-decision triumph.

Next up, Jarrett Hurd (23-1, 16 KOs) took on Francisco Santana (25-7, 12 KOs).

Hurd is a big junior-middleweight who held the WBA and IBF 154-pound titles until losing to Julian Williams last year. Santana is a career welterweight who had lost three of his most recent four fights and had won only three times in the last five years.

Hurd was expected to walk through Santana. But he was strangely passive for much of the fight, which led to the strange spectacle of Santana (the noticeably smaller, lighter-punching man) walking Jarrett down for long stretches of time. Francisco is a one-dimensional fighter and was there to be hit. When Jarrett let his hands go, he hit him. But he fought like a man who didn’t want to fight and didn’t let his hands go often enough.

By round seven, the boos and jeers were raining down. Hurd won a unanimous decision but looked mediocre. That’s the most honest way to put it. One wonder what tricks losing to Julian Williams last year played with his mind.

Also, it should be noted that, when the winning fighter thanks God in a post-fight interview and the crowd (which supported Jarrett at the start of the bout) boos at the mention of The Almighty, there’s a problem.

“The crowd didn’t love it,” Hurd acknowledged afterward. “But you gotta understand; I got the unanimous decision and I did what I wanted to do.”

The main event matched Danny Garcia (35-2, 21 KOs) against Ivan Redkach (23-4-1, 18 KOs).

Garcia had a nice run early in his career, winning belts at 140 and 147 pounds. But later, he came out on the losing end of decisions against Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter. Other than that, he has gone in soft for the past five years.

Redkach is a junior-welterweight who had won 5 of 10 fights during the same five-year time frame.

There was the usual pre-fight nonsense with Garcia telling reporters, “We picked Redkach because he’s dangerous and we knew he’d be tough.” But in truth, Redkach had been whitewashed by Tevin Farmer at 135 pounds and was knocked out at the same weight by John Molina Jr (who never won again).

Garcia, like Hurd, was a 30-to-1 betting favorite.

Redkach fought a safety-first fight. Also, safety second and third. There wasn’t one second when it looked as though he had a realistic chance of winning the fight or fought like he did.

One of the few proactive things that Ivan did do was stick out his tongue from time to time when Garcia hit him. Then, at the end of round eight, he bit Danny on the shoulder while they were in a clinch. At that point, one might have expected referee Benjy Esteves to disqualify Redkach. But Esteves seemed to not notice.

Rather than go for the kill after the bite, Garcia eased up and cruised to a unanimous decision. Meanwhile, by round eleven, the crowd was streaming for the exits. Most of the fans were gone by the time the decision was announced.

Garcia and Hurd had set-up showcase fights scheduled for them. And neither man delivered the way he should have.

Meanwhile, a final thought . . . Sunday, January 26, would have been Harold Lederman’s eightieth birthday.

Harold was the quintessential boxing fan and loved the sport more than anyone I’ve known. He never missed a fight at Barclays Center unless his health prevented him from coming or he was on the road for HBO. He died eight months ago.

As Saturday night’s fight card unfolded, I imagined Harold sitting beside me. He would have had a kind word for everyone who came over to say hello and loved every minute of it. Harold Lederman at the fights was a happy man.

Photo credit: Amanda Westcott

Thomas Hauser’s email address is thomashauserwriter@gmail.com. His most recent book — A Dangerous Journey: Another Year Inside Boxing — was published by the University of Arkansas Press. In 2004, the Boxing Writers Association of America honored Hauser with the Nat Fleischer Award for career excellence in boxing journalism. On June 14, 2020, he will be inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame.

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Fast Results from Brooklyn: No Surprises as Garcia and Hurd Win Lopsidedly

Arne K. Lang

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Tonight, Philadelphia’s Danny Garcia made his eighth appearance at Barclays Center. Garcia’s 2017 fight with Keith Thurman drew 16,533, the attendance high for a boxing show at the arena. A far smaller crowd was in attendance tonight to see Garcia take on Ivan Redkach in a non-title fight slated for 12 rounds.

Redkach, a 33-year-old LA-based Ukrainian, is a southpaw. That’s no coincidence. Garcia hopes to land big-money fights with Errol Spence and/or Manny Pacquiao, both southpaws.

Redkach (23-4-1 coming in) turned his career around in his last fight with a career-best performance, a sixth-round stoppage of former two-division title-holder Devon Alexander, a 15-year pro who hadn’t previously been stopped. But there was a class difference between he and Danny Garcia, a former WBA and WBC 140-pound world title-holder and former WBC 147-pound champion.

Garcia (35-2, 21 KOs) was simply sharper. His workrate slowed late in the fight, allowing the game Redkach to steal a few rounds, but at the final gun he was relatively unmarked whereas Redkach was conspicuously bruised. The scores were 118-110 and 117-111 twice. The crowd booed at intervals, understandable as they were subject to a drab 6-fight card that was even less interesting than it was on paper.

Co-Feature

In the 10-round co-feature, Jarrett Hurd, making his first start since losing his WBA/IBF super welterweight title to Julian Williams last May, went on cruise control from the opening bell and jabbed his way to a lopsided 10-round decision over Francisco Santana. Hurd, who improved to 24-1, finally let loose late in the 10th frame, putting Santana (25-8-1) on the canvas with a succession of left hooks, but by then many in the crowd had probably nodded off.

This was Hurd’s first fight with new trainer Kay Koroma who has drawn raves for his work with America’s elite amateurs. The scores were 97-92 and 99-90 twice. SoCal’s Santana has now lost five of his last eight.

The opening bout on the main TV portion of the card was a 12-round super bantamweight contest between Philadelphia’s Stephen Fulton and fellow unbeaten Arnold Khegai who currently trains in Philadelphia.

Fulton (18-0, 8 KOs) simply had too much class for Khegai (16-1-1), a Ukrainian of Korean heritage. Although Khegai frequently backed Fulton into the ropes, the Philadelphian had an air-tight defense and connected with many more punches. The fight went the full 12 with Fulton prevailing by scores of 116-112 and 117-111 twice.

If the WBO has its way, Fulton will proceed to a fight with Emanuel Navarrete, but don’t hold your breath as Navarrete is promoted by Bob Arum who undoubtedly wants to extract more mileage from him before letting him risk his belt against a crafty fighter like Stephen Fulton.

Photo credit: Amanda Westcott / SHOWTIME

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Sacramento Honors Diego ‘Chico’ Corrales

Arne K. Lang

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Tonight (Saturday, Jan. 25) former two-division world boxing champion Diego “Chico” Corrales will be posthumously inducted into the Sacramento Sports Hall of Fame at the organization’s eighth annual induction ceremony at the Thunder Valley Casino Resort.

Corrales, who grew up in Sacramento, the son of a Columbian father and a Mexican mother, turned pro at age 18 and went on to compile a record of 40-5 (33 KOs). He won his first title in 1999 with a seventh-round stoppage of previously undefeated Robert Garcia. Now recognized as one of boxing’s top trainers, Garcia was making the fourth defense of his IBF 130-pound title.

Five years later, Corrales won the WBO world lightweight title with a 10th-round stoppage of Brazil’s previously undefeated Acelino Freitas. That set up a unification fight with the WBC belt-holder Jose Luis Castillo.

Corrales and Castillo met on May 7, 2005, at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. To say they put on a great fight would be an understatement. The boxing writers in attendance will tell you that this was the greatest fight of all time. It was named Fight of the Decade by The Ring magazine.

The final round, the 10th, was unbelievable. Heading into the round, Corrales was ahead on two of the three scorecards, but his left eye was swollen nearly shut and during the round he was knocked down twice. No one would have faulted referee Tony Weeks for stopping the fight after the second knockdown. But, somehow, Corrales was able to rally, pulling the fight out of the fire with a barrage of punches that had Castillo out on his feet when Weeks waived it off.

Two years to the very day of this iconic fight, Diego “Chico” Corrales died in a motorcycle accident in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas when he rear-ended a car while traveling at a high rate of speed. He was 29 years old.

Corrales was a thrill-seeker. In a 2006 profile, Las Vegas Review-Journal boxing writer Kevin Iole enumerated these among Castillo’s hobbies: jumping out of planes from 14,000 feet, bungee jumping from 400 feet, snowboarding in treacherous terrain and scuba diving amid a school of sharks. “He lived his life the same way he fought,” said his promoter Gary Shaw, “with reckless abandon.”

It might seem odd that it took so long for Corrales to be recognized by the Sacramento Sports Hall of Fame, but there was a period when Corrales’s name was mud in his hometown and perhaps the organization’s founder, Las Vegas sports radio personality T.C. Martin, a Sacramento native, thought it appropriate to let old wounds heal.

In 2001, shortly after suffering his first pro loss at the hands of Floyd Mayweather, Corrales pled guilty to felony domestic violence in the beating of his first wife and would serve 14 months in prison. “The whole family has worn a black eye for it,” Diego’s brother Esteban Corrales told Sacramento Bee reporter Marcos Bretan.

For all his recklessness, the incident didn’t jibe with his persona. In the company of Las Vegas sportswriters, the soft-spoken and well-spoken Corrales came across as polite and humble.

Corrales, one of five inductees in the 2020 class, joins three other boxers already installed in the Sacramento Hall: Pete Ranzany, Loreto Garza, and Tony “Tiger” Lopez.

Ranzany, a welterweight, fought four former or future world champions and was a fixture in Sacramento rings in the late 1970’s. Garza wrested the WBA super lightweight title from Argentina’s Juan Martin Coggi in France and successfully defended the belt here in Sacramento with a one-sided conquest of Vinny Pazienza. Lopez, Sacramento’s most popular fighter ever, made the turnstiles hum at the city’s largest arena where he fought eight of his 14 world title fights beginning with his 1988 humdinger with defending IBF 130-pound champion Rocky Lockridge.

Among the speakers at tonight’s confab will be Kenny Adams. Perhaps best known as the head trainer for the 1988 U.S. Olympic team that won eight medals in Seoul, Adams currently trains Nonito Donaire. He was with Diego Corrales for 24 fights, during which Corrales was 23-1, avenging the lone defeat by Joel Casamayor. Festivities start at 7 pm.

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