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The Official TSS Pacquiao-Ugas Prediction Page

Manny Pacquiao, in the fashion of the late Muhammad Ali, has become a global superstar, a man who has transcended his sport. No matter the opponent or title at risk, a Pacquiao fight is a major event. Saturday’s match in Las Vegas between “Senator PacMan” and Yordenis Ugas will overshadow all other sporting events this weekend.
Whenever a really big fight comes down the pike, we invite our panel of writers to share their thoughts. The respondents are listed alphabetically.
RICK ASSAD — Saturday’s clash between Manny Pacquiao and Yordenis Ugas will be a sprightly-fought affair. Pacquiao is 42 and isn’t what he once was, but will carry the night against the 35-year-old Cuban, who stepped in for Errol Spence Jr. An eight-division king, Pacquiao has a three-fight winning streak that includes victories over Lucas Matthysse, Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman, and will make it four in a row despite giving up seven years in age, three inches in height and two inches in reach.
The fight will go the full 12 and Pacquiao, based on overall activity and a late knockdown, will prevail. PACQUIAO UD.
BERNARD FERNANDEZ — I’ve been a Manny partisan ever since I saw him take apart Ledwaba so many years ago. I knew then he could become something truly special, and he has matched and even exceeded my wildest expectations. That said, Father Time is the opponent no fighter, even a great one like Pacquiao, can outpoint indefinitely. Remove any trace of sentiment from the equation and I was prepared to pick Spence, with some assistance from the natural laws of diminishing returns, to score a UD over the Fab Filipino, and maybe even win inside the distance. Ugas for sure is no day at the beach, but I think Pacquiao’s margin for error is not quite as narrow now. I’m going with the senator to launch his campaign to be president of the Philippines with a victory. PACQUIAO MD.
JEFFREY FREEMAN – Verily, verily I predict that Manny Pacquiao will defeat substitute opponent Yordenis Ugas. The Cuban underdog will be motivated to perform at his best, and he will, but Manny will always be a few steps and few points ahead of him in the ring. Pacquiao wins a competitive but unanimous decision – PACQUIAO UD
THOMAS HAUSER — There’s no way to know what Pacquiao has left. But based on past performances, I’ll say Manny by decision.
ARNE LANG – Someday Manny Pacquiao will grow old overnight. We won’t know until after-the-fact, but it’s hard to believe that a man of his vintage hasn’t suffered any skill erosion since his last ring engagement 743 days ago. The concept of “value” is less relevant when betting on boxing than when betting on a team sport (a subject for another day), but the prevailing odds say more about Manny’s lofty status than they do about whatever edge he may have over his formidable Cuban opponent. UGAS TKO 10
KELSEY McCARSON — While I remain incredibly disappointed that the intergenerational superfight vs. Spence isn’t going to happen due to Spence’s eye injury, I find myself giddy at the prospect of seeing Pacquiao inside the ring again. The 42-year-old shouldn’t be favored against world-class welterweights like Ugas this late in his boxing career, but here he is. Ugas, 35, is a strong fighter with some nice skills, but Pacquiao’s rare combination of speed and power will befuddle the Cuban over the course of the fight. PACQUIAO UD
MATT McGRAIN — Pacquiao is Pacquiao and he will be the pick for the majority of contributors to The Sweet Science I presume; not without reason; Manny is one of the greatest fighters who has ever lived. My pick though is Ugas. I’m picking Ugas for two reasons, both of them time-honored. The first is inactivity. Pacquiao will be two years out by the time the first bell goes. Such handicaps can be overcome in the modern era, Klitschko-Peter perhaps the defining example. But the second is age. Pacquiao is 42 years old. That is five important years older than Vitali when he matched Peter. The contrary pick will be based around Pacquiao’s greatness as a fighter and the euphemism that is “modern nutrition.” Make no mistake though, taking out the number four welterweight contender at this stage of his career remains a feat of no small matter should Pacquiao achieve it. UGAS UD.
SEAN NAM — Ugas may very well be a top-four welterweight, but he will have his hands full with Pacquiao. A counterpuncher who is adept at walking his opponents down behind a high guard, Ugas tends to be too patient at times on offense, leaving Pacquiao to rattle off his customary rapid-fire combinations. Unless Pacquiao’s stamina (a problem for him lately) deteriorates significantly in the second half of the fight, I see a clear decision for the Filipino senator. PACQUIAO UD
TED SARES — Pacquiao has lost a lot of pop on his punches, but still connects with the occasional flash power shot. He also continues to use amazing angles and surprise movement. Still, bear in mind that he did not beat a very beatable Horn—though that decision was “hinky” to this writer. And aside from Matthysse, he was not able to stop Broner or anyone else since going all the way back to his destruction of Cotto in 2009. Thus, stopping Ugas is highly unlikely. However, with the attendant nostalgia that this may be his last fight and with just about every person in the Universe pulling for him except perhaps President Duterte, PacMan will have plenty of fan support. This, along with his vast experience and skill set, should carry the day. PACQUIAO UD
PHIL WOOLEVER — There’s always a chance that time finally catches up to a 42-year- old fighter like Pacquaio, but beyond that scenario there doesn’t seem to be anything on Ugas’ record to suggest he’ll do much more than serve as a measuring stick to determine how much precision punching Manny has left in the tank. PACQUIAO UD.
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Mercito Gesta Victorious Over Jojo Diaz at the Long Beach Pyramid

LONG BEACH, CA.-Those in the know knew Mercito Gesta and Jojo Diaz would be a fight to watch and they delivered.
Gesta emerged the winner in a super lightweight clash between southpaws that saw the judges favor his busier style over Diaz’s body attack and bigger shots and win by split decision on Saturday.
Despite losing the main event because the star was overweight, Gesta (34-3-3, 17 KOs) used an outside method of tactic to edge past former world champion Diaz (32-4-1, 15 KOs) in front of more than 5,000 fans at the Pyramid.
The speedy Gesta opened up the fight with combination punching up and down against the peek-a-boo style of Diaz. For the first two rounds the San Diego fighter overwhelmed Diaz though none of the blows were impactful.
In the third round Diaz finally began unloading his own combinations and displaying the fast hands that helped him win world titles in two divisions. Gesta seemed stunned by the blows, but his chin held up. The counter right hook was Diaz’s best weapon and snapped Gesta’s head back several times.
Gesta regained control in the fifth round after absorbing big blows from Diaz. He seemed to get angry that he was hurt and opened up with even more blows to send Diaz backpedaling.
Diaz targeted his attack to Gesta’s body and that seemed to slow down Gesta. But only for a round.
From the seventh until the 10th each fighter tried to impose their style with Gesta opening up with fast flurries and Diaz using right hooks to connect with solid shots. They continued their method of attack until the final bell. All that mattered was what the judges preferred.
After 10 rounds one judge saw Diaz the winner 97-93 but two others saw Gesta the winner 99-91, 98-92. It was a close and interesting fight.
“I was expecting nothing. I was the victor in this fight and we gave a good fight,” said Gesta. “It’s not an easy fight and Jojo gave his best.”
Diaz was surprised by the outcome but accepted the verdict.
Everything was going good. I thought I was landing good body shots,” said Diaz. “I was pretty comfortable.”
Other Bouts
Mexico’s Oscar Duarte (25-1-1, 20 KOs) knocked out Chicago’s Alex Martin (18-5, 6 KOs) with a counter right hand after dropping him earlier in the fourth round. The super lightweight fight was stopped at 1:14 of the round.
A battle between undefeated super welterweights saw Florida’s Eric Tudor (8-0, 6 KOs) emerge the winner by unanimous decision after eight rounds versus Oakland’s Damoni Cato-Cain.
The taller Tudor showed polished skill and was not bothered by a large cut on his forehead caused by an accidental clash of heads. He used his jab and lead rights to defuse the attacks of the quick-fisted southpaw Cato-Cain. The judges scored the fight 80-72 and 78-74 twice for Tudor.
San Diego’s Jorge Chavez (5-0, 4 KOs) needed less than one round to figure out Nicaragua’s Bryan Perez (12-17-1, 11 KOs) and send him into dreamland with a three-punch combination. No need to count as referee Ray Corona waved the fight over. Perez shot a vicious right followed by another right and then a see-you-later left hook at 3.00 of the first round of the super featherweight match.
Photo credit: Al Applerose
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Jojo Diaz’s Slump Continues; Mercito Gesta Prevails on a Split Decision

At age 30, Jojo Diaz’s career is on the skids. The 2012 U.S. Olympian, a former world title holder at 126 and 130 pounds and an interim title holder at 135, Diaz suffered his third straight loss tonight, upset by Mercito Gesta who won a split decision at the Walter Pyramid in Long Beach, CA.. The scoring was strange with Gesta winning nine of the 10 rounds on one of the cards and only three rounds on another. The tie-breaker, as it were, was a 98-92 tally for Gesta and even that didn’t capture the flavor of what was a closely-contested fight.
Originally listed as a 12-rounder, the match was reduced to 10 and that, it turned out, did Diaz no favors. However, it’s hard to feel sorry for the former Olympian as he came in overweight once again, having lost his 130-pound title on the scales in February of 2021.
Diaz also has issues outside the ropes. Best elucidated by prominent boxing writer Jake Donovan, they include a cluster of legal problems stemming from an arrest for drunk driving on Feb. 27 in the LA suburb of Claremont.
With the defeat, Diaz’s ledger declined to 32-4-1. His prior losses came at the hands of Gary Russell Jr, Devin Haney, and William Zepeda, boxers who are collectively 83-2. Mercito Gesta, a 35-year-old San Diego-based Filipino, improved to 34-3-3.
Co-Feature
Chihuahua, Mexico super lightweight Oscar Duarte has now won nine straight inside the distance after stopping 33-year-old Chicago southpaw Alex Martin in the eighth frame. Duarte, the busier fighter, had Martin on the deck twice in round eight before the fight was waived off.
Duarte improved to 25-1-1 (20). Martin, who reportedly won six national titles as an amateur and was once looked upon as a promising prospect, declined to 18-5.
Other Bouts of Note
New Golden Boy signee Eric Tudor, a 21-year-old super welterweight from Fort Lauderdale, overcame a bad laceration over his right eye, the result of an accidental clash of heads in round four, to stay unbeaten, advancing to 8-0 (6) with a hard-fought unanimous 8-round decision over Oakland’s Damoni Cato-Cain. The judges had it 80-72 and 78-74 twice. It was the first pro loss for Cato-Cain (7-1-1) who had his first five fights in Tijuana.
In the DAZN opener, lanky Hawaian lightweight Dalis Kaleiopu went the distance for the first time in his young career, improving to 4-0 (3) with a unanimous decision over 36-year-old Colombian trial horse Jonathan Perez (40-35). The scores were 60-52 across the board. There were no knockdowns, but Perez, who gave up almost six inches in height, had a point deducted for a rabbit punch and another point for deducted for holding.
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‘Big Baby’ Wins the Battle of Behemoths; TKOs ‘Big Daddy’ in 6

Lucas “Big Daddy” Browne weighed in at a career-high 277 pounds for today’s battle in Dubai with Jarrell “Big Baby” Miller, but he was the lighter man by 56 pounds. It figured that one or both would gas out if the bout lasted more than a few stanzas.
It was a war of attrition with both men looking exhausted at times, and when the end came it was Miller, at age 34 the younger man by nine years, who had his hand raised.
Browne was the busier man, but Miller, whose physique invites comparison with a rhinoceros, hardly blinked as he was tattooed with an assortment of punches. He hurt ‘Bid Daddy’ in round four, but the Aussie held his own in the next frame, perhaps even forging ahead on the cards, but only postponing the inevitable.
In round six, a succession of right hands knocked Browne on the seat of his pants. He beat the count, but another barrage from Miller impelled the referee to intervene. The official time was 2:33. It was the 21st straight win for Miller (26-0-1, 22 KOs). Browne declined to 31-4 and, for his own sake, ought not fight again. All four of his losses have come inside the distance, some brutally.
The consensus of those that caught the livestream was that Floyd Mayweather Jr’s commentary was an annoying distraction that marred what was otherwise an entertaining show.
As for what’s next for “Big Baby” Miller, that’s hard to decipher as he has burned his bridges with the sport’s most powerful promoters. One possibility is Mahmoud Charr who, like Miller, has a big gap in his boxing timeline. Now 38 years old, Charr – who has a tenuous claim on a WBA world title (don’t we all?) — has reportedly taken up residence in Dubai.
Other Bouts of Note
In a 10-round cruiserweight affair, Suslan Asbarov, a 30-year-old Russian, advanced to 4-0 (1) with a hard-fought majority decision over Brandon Glanton. The judges had it 98-92, 97-93, and a more reasonable 95-95.
Asbarov was 12-9 in documented amateur fights and 1-0 in a sanctioned bare-knuckle fight, all in Moscow, entering this match. He bears watching, however, as Glanton (18-2) would be a tough out for almost anyone in his weight class. In his previous fight, at Plant City, Florida, Glanton lost a controversial decision to David Light, an undefeated Australian who challenges WBO world title-holder Lawrence Okolie at Manchester, England next week.
A 10-round super featherweight match between former world title challengers Jono Carroll and Miguel Marriaga preceded the semi-windup. Carroll, a 30-year-old Dublin southpaw, overcame a cut over his left eye suffered in the second round to win a wide unanimous decision in a fairly entertaining fight.
It was the sixth straight win for Carroll (24-2-1, 7 KOs) who elevated his game after serving as a sparring partner for Devin Haney. Marriaga, a 36-year-old Colombian, lost for the fourth time in his last five outings, declining to 30-7.
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