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The Official TSS Fury-Wilder III Prediction Page

When a big fight comes down the pike, we turn to our fine ensemble of writers to get their thoughts. And for the third time, we are soliciting their opinions on a fight involving Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury.
It’s interesting to note how the conventional wisdom has changed.
Wilder-Fury I was staged on Dec. 1, 2018 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Consistent with the odds — Wilder was a consensus 17-10 favorite – our survey showed a distinct lean to the American. There was a school of thought that Fury’s unorthodox style would puzzle Wilder, but the Gypsy King had lost more than two years of his prime battling personal demons while ballooning up in weight and several of our panelists were of the opinion that he would likely gas out if he was still standing after nine rounds.
The rematch, staged on Feb. 22, 2020 at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas, was a “pick-‘em” fight. In fact, if a person shopped around and timed his wagers adroitly, he could have actually locked in a small profit before the first punch was thrown.
Once again, the opinions were consistent with the odds, which is to say that there was roughly a 50/50 split. In their first meeting, Fury had demonstrated beyond any doubt that he was the superior boxer, but he seemingly had more distractions in his life going into their second meeting and Wilder’s lethal right hand was presumably as potent as ever.
The third meeting finds the Gypsy King a consensus 3/1 favorite. And the manner in which he dominated their second encounter made it hard for our panelists to pick against him. His mastery in Episode 2 ensured that it would overshadow all other factors, boiling the handicapping checklist down to almost nothing.
Our panelists are listed alphabetically. Comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, whose specialty is combat sports, provided the graphic. Check out more of Rob’s very cool illustrations at his web site fight posium.
Forecasts
In their second bout, Fury chose to go toe-to-toe with Wilder and it worked; he beat him up. Confidence goes a long way and it will be the key difference on Saturday. The pick: Fury by knockout in the late stages. – RICK ASSAD
Picking a winner for the third pairing of Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder is probably trickier than it ought to be, for a couple of reasons. Was the fight postponed in July because Fury really did test positive for COVID-19, or because he simply was not in proper condition to proceed then? How much will the change in Wilder’s corner, with former fringe heavyweight contender Malik Scott now his chief second, affect what happens in the ring? How much drama has been drained from the fight because Anthony Joshua isn’t awaiting the winner after his upset loss to Oleksandr Usyk? All that said, I am absolutely certain I can’t make any call I am absolutely certain of. So, what the hell, let’s call it Fury by sixth-round stoppage. Or Wilder by sixth-round stoppage. Whatever. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ
I cannot say with absolute certainty just how Tyson Fury will beat Deontay Wilder but he definitely will because one thing I am certain of (after seeing them fight twice) is that Wilder cannot and will not beat the undefeated Gypsy King. Fury wins again. Probably another pulverizing TKO. – JEFFREY FREEMAN
I love this fight because I don’t know what will happen. I’m mystified by all the people who, eighteen months ago, were calling Wilder the hardest puncher in boxing history and are saying now that he doesn’t have a chance. If Fury is in fighting shape, I think he wins by a late stoppage. But he might not be. I’ll let you know after two rounds. – THOMAS HAUSER
The wild card here that no one talks about his Wilder’s new trainer Malik Scott. He’s young (turns 40 this month) and unproven, but people that know him well tell me he’s very sharp. If he can equip Deontay with an effective jab (Wilder uses his left merely as a range finder), then Fury will be up against a different cat than the one he fought in March of last year. However, Fury dismantled Wilder so thoroughly in their second meeting that I hesitate to pick against him. Fury TKO 11. – ARNE LANG
I like Fury by stoppage in the sixth round or sooner. I’d love to give Wilder the benefit of the doubt in the third fight, but I’ve seen nothing from the former champ to suggest he’s done anything to fix his flaws. There’s a fine line in boxing between the good kind of denial that can keep you fighting to win even though you’re down on the cards and the bad kind that keeps you from bettering yourself. Wilder was soundly whipped in the second fight. To have a chance in the third, he needed to admit it. He didn’t, so another beating is on the way. – KELSEY McCARSON
The first fight demonstrated what an out of shape Tyson Fury can do with a focused Deontay Wilder; the second fight demonstrated what a focused Fury can do with a hampered Wilder. This needless third fight will have me up at 5am because, hey, it’s the world’s heavyweight championship, but it is just a case of when and where, the who is already known. I’ll pick Fury to get Wilder out of there in ten, but it’s a little arbitrary because the details depend upon the intangibles – training, focus, alcohol and injury. – MATT McGRAIN
Courtroom scuffles, recriminations, Covid-19 infections, and the general zaniness of the principal characters has enveloped the third bout between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder in a fog of uncertainty, a somewhat surprising development given how lopsided a beatdown Fury handed to Wilder in their second match nearly 20 months ago and which subsequently seemed to render the idea of another go-around redundant. When you consider Fury’s erratic nature – he dropped out of the Wladimir Klitschko rematch in what should have been his first defense of his heavyweight titles and then bottomed out, going through a life-threatening bender of drugs, alcohol and depression – and the fact that Wilder, for all his sordid conspiratorial accusations, remains, if nothing else, one of the sport’s most lethal knockout artists — then you consider all these shifting elements at play, you begin to think anything is possible. With no confidence at all: Fury on points. – SEAN NAM
Wilder was both mentally and physically destroyed by the giant. The same thing will happen this time. Wilder’s best bet is to go all out and try to get Fury into an exchange, opening up the possibility of the big right, but the “Traveler” is too savvy for that. I believe it was Hagler who said “destruct and destroy.” That’s what this will be —- again. – TED SARES
Brain says Fury, gut says Wilder. Only sure thing is that the winner is true heavyweight champion by virtue of “man who beat the man.” Prior action in their first two fights leans heavily in Fury’s direction but there’s also high probability Wilder is by far the hungrier of the two since his debacle in February 2020, and plenty of documented distractions around the Gypsy King. Would have to recommend that friends bet on Fury, but if it was my own cash I’d put it on Wilder. – PHIL WOOLEVER
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Mercito Gesta Victorious Over Jojo Diaz at the Long Beach Pyramid

LONG BEACH, CA.-Those in the know knew Mercito Gesta and Jojo Diaz would be a fight to watch and they delivered.
Gesta emerged the winner in a super lightweight clash between southpaws that saw the judges favor his busier style over Diaz’s body attack and bigger shots and win by split decision on Saturday.
Despite losing the main event because the star was overweight, Gesta (34-3-3, 17 KOs) used an outside method of tactic to edge past former world champion Diaz (32-4-1, 15 KOs) in front of more than 5,000 fans at the Pyramid.
The speedy Gesta opened up the fight with combination punching up and down against the peek-a-boo style of Diaz. For the first two rounds the San Diego fighter overwhelmed Diaz though none of the blows were impactful.
In the third round Diaz finally began unloading his own combinations and displaying the fast hands that helped him win world titles in two divisions. Gesta seemed stunned by the blows, but his chin held up. The counter right hook was Diaz’s best weapon and snapped Gesta’s head back several times.
Gesta regained control in the fifth round after absorbing big blows from Diaz. He seemed to get angry that he was hurt and opened up with even more blows to send Diaz backpedaling.
Diaz targeted his attack to Gesta’s body and that seemed to slow down Gesta. But only for a round.
From the seventh until the 10th each fighter tried to impose their style with Gesta opening up with fast flurries and Diaz using right hooks to connect with solid shots. They continued their method of attack until the final bell. All that mattered was what the judges preferred.
After 10 rounds one judge saw Diaz the winner 97-93 but two others saw Gesta the winner 99-91, 98-92. It was a close and interesting fight.
“I was expecting nothing. I was the victor in this fight and we gave a good fight,” said Gesta. “It’s not an easy fight and Jojo gave his best.”
Diaz was surprised by the outcome but accepted the verdict.
Everything was going good. I thought I was landing good body shots,” said Diaz. “I was pretty comfortable.”
Other Bouts
Mexico’s Oscar Duarte (25-1-1, 20 KOs) knocked out Chicago’s Alex Martin (18-5, 6 KOs) with a counter right hand after dropping him earlier in the fourth round. The super lightweight fight was stopped at 1:14 of the round.
A battle between undefeated super welterweights saw Florida’s Eric Tudor (8-0, 6 KOs) emerge the winner by unanimous decision after eight rounds versus Oakland’s Damoni Cato-Cain.
The taller Tudor showed polished skill and was not bothered by a large cut on his forehead caused by an accidental clash of heads. He used his jab and lead rights to defuse the attacks of the quick-fisted southpaw Cato-Cain. The judges scored the fight 80-72 and 78-74 twice for Tudor.
San Diego’s Jorge Chavez (5-0, 4 KOs) needed less than one round to figure out Nicaragua’s Bryan Perez (12-17-1, 11 KOs) and send him into dreamland with a three-punch combination. No need to count as referee Ray Corona waved the fight over. Perez shot a vicious right followed by another right and then a see-you-later left hook at 3.00 of the first round of the super featherweight match.
Photo credit: Al Applerose
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Jojo Diaz’s Slump Continues; Mercito Gesta Prevails on a Split Decision

At age 30, Jojo Diaz’s career is on the skids. The 2012 U.S. Olympian, a former world title holder at 126 and 130 pounds and an interim title holder at 135, Diaz suffered his third straight loss tonight, upset by Mercito Gesta who won a split decision at the Walter Pyramid in Long Beach, CA.. The scoring was strange with Gesta winning nine of the 10 rounds on one of the cards and only three rounds on another. The tie-breaker, as it were, was a 98-92 tally for Gesta and even that didn’t capture the flavor of what was a closely-contested fight.
Originally listed as a 12-rounder, the match was reduced to 10 and that, it turned out, did Diaz no favors. However, it’s hard to feel sorry for the former Olympian as he came in overweight once again, having lost his 130-pound title on the scales in February of 2021.
Diaz also has issues outside the ropes. Best elucidated by prominent boxing writer Jake Donovan, they include a cluster of legal problems stemming from an arrest for drunk driving on Feb. 27 in the LA suburb of Claremont.
With the defeat, Diaz’s ledger declined to 32-4-1. His prior losses came at the hands of Gary Russell Jr, Devin Haney, and William Zepeda, boxers who are collectively 83-2. Mercito Gesta, a 35-year-old San Diego-based Filipino, improved to 34-3-3.
Co-Feature
Chihuahua, Mexico super lightweight Oscar Duarte has now won nine straight inside the distance after stopping 33-year-old Chicago southpaw Alex Martin in the eighth frame. Duarte, the busier fighter, had Martin on the deck twice in round eight before the fight was waived off.
Duarte improved to 25-1-1 (20). Martin, who reportedly won six national titles as an amateur and was once looked upon as a promising prospect, declined to 18-5.
Other Bouts of Note
New Golden Boy signee Eric Tudor, a 21-year-old super welterweight from Fort Lauderdale, overcame a bad laceration over his right eye, the result of an accidental clash of heads in round four, to stay unbeaten, advancing to 8-0 (6) with a hard-fought unanimous 8-round decision over Oakland’s Damoni Cato-Cain. The judges had it 80-72 and 78-74 twice. It was the first pro loss for Cato-Cain (7-1-1) who had his first five fights in Tijuana.
In the DAZN opener, lanky Hawaian lightweight Dalis Kaleiopu went the distance for the first time in his young career, improving to 4-0 (3) with a unanimous decision over 36-year-old Colombian trial horse Jonathan Perez (40-35). The scores were 60-52 across the board. There were no knockdowns, but Perez, who gave up almost six inches in height, had a point deducted for a rabbit punch and another point for deducted for holding.
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‘Big Baby’ Wins the Battle of Behemoths; TKOs ‘Big Daddy’ in 6

Lucas “Big Daddy” Browne weighed in at a career-high 277 pounds for today’s battle in Dubai with Jarrell “Big Baby” Miller, but he was the lighter man by 56 pounds. It figured that one or both would gas out if the bout lasted more than a few stanzas.
It was a war of attrition with both men looking exhausted at times, and when the end came it was Miller, at age 34 the younger man by nine years, who had his hand raised.
Browne was the busier man, but Miller, whose physique invites comparison with a rhinoceros, hardly blinked as he was tattooed with an assortment of punches. He hurt ‘Bid Daddy’ in round four, but the Aussie held his own in the next frame, perhaps even forging ahead on the cards, but only postponing the inevitable.
In round six, a succession of right hands knocked Browne on the seat of his pants. He beat the count, but another barrage from Miller impelled the referee to intervene. The official time was 2:33. It was the 21st straight win for Miller (26-0-1, 22 KOs). Browne declined to 31-4 and, for his own sake, ought not fight again. All four of his losses have come inside the distance, some brutally.
The consensus of those that caught the livestream was that Floyd Mayweather Jr’s commentary was an annoying distraction that marred what was otherwise an entertaining show.
As for what’s next for “Big Baby” Miller, that’s hard to decipher as he has burned his bridges with the sport’s most powerful promoters. One possibility is Mahmoud Charr who, like Miller, has a big gap in his boxing timeline. Now 38 years old, Charr – who has a tenuous claim on a WBA world title (don’t we all?) — has reportedly taken up residence in Dubai.
Other Bouts of Note
In a 10-round cruiserweight affair, Suslan Asbarov, a 30-year-old Russian, advanced to 4-0 (1) with a hard-fought majority decision over Brandon Glanton. The judges had it 98-92, 97-93, and a more reasonable 95-95.
Asbarov was 12-9 in documented amateur fights and 1-0 in a sanctioned bare-knuckle fight, all in Moscow, entering this match. He bears watching, however, as Glanton (18-2) would be a tough out for almost anyone in his weight class. In his previous fight, at Plant City, Florida, Glanton lost a controversial decision to David Light, an undefeated Australian who challenges WBO world title-holder Lawrence Okolie at Manchester, England next week.
A 10-round super featherweight match between former world title challengers Jono Carroll and Miguel Marriaga preceded the semi-windup. Carroll, a 30-year-old Dublin southpaw, overcame a cut over his left eye suffered in the second round to win a wide unanimous decision in a fairly entertaining fight.
It was the sixth straight win for Carroll (24-2-1, 7 KOs) who elevated his game after serving as a sparring partner for Devin Haney. Marriaga, a 36-year-old Colombian, lost for the fourth time in his last five outings, declining to 30-7.
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