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The Official TSS Fury-Wilder III Prediction Page

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When a big fight comes down the pike, we turn to our fine ensemble of writers to get their thoughts. And for the third time, we are soliciting their opinions on a fight involving Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury.

It’s interesting to note how the conventional wisdom has changed.

Wilder-Fury I was staged on Dec. 1, 2018 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Consistent with the odds — Wilder was a consensus 17-10 favorite – our survey showed a distinct lean to the American. There was a school of thought that Fury’s unorthodox style would puzzle Wilder, but the Gypsy King had lost more than two years of his prime battling personal demons while ballooning up in weight and several of our panelists were of the opinion that he would likely gas out if he was still standing after nine rounds.

The rematch, staged on Feb. 22, 2020 at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas, was a “pick-‘em” fight. In fact, if a person shopped around and timed his wagers adroitly, he could have actually locked in a small profit before the first punch was thrown.

Once again, the opinions were consistent with the odds, which is to say that there was roughly a 50/50 split. In their first meeting, Fury had demonstrated beyond any doubt that he was the superior boxer, but he seemingly had more distractions in his life going into their second meeting and Wilder’s lethal right hand was presumably as potent as ever.

The third meeting finds the Gypsy King a consensus 3/1 favorite. And the manner in which he dominated their second encounter made it hard for our panelists to pick against him. His mastery in Episode 2 ensured that it would overshadow all other factors, boiling the handicapping checklist down to almost nothing.

Our panelists are listed alphabetically. Comic book cover artist ROB AYALA, whose specialty is combat sports, provided the graphic. Check out more of Rob’s very cool illustrations at his web site fight posium.

Forecasts

In their second bout, Fury chose to go toe-to-toe with Wilder and it worked; he beat him up. Confidence goes a long way and it will be the key difference on Saturday. The pick: Fury by knockout in the late stages. – RICK ASSAD

Picking a winner for the third pairing of Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder is probably trickier than it ought to be, for a couple of reasons. Was the fight postponed in July because Fury really did test positive for COVID-19, or because he simply was not in proper condition to proceed then? How much will the change in Wilder’s corner, with former fringe heavyweight contender Malik Scott now his chief second, affect what happens in the ring? How much drama has been drained from the fight because Anthony Joshua isn’t awaiting the winner after his upset loss to Oleksandr Usyk? All that said, I am absolutely certain I can’t make any call I am absolutely certain of. So, what the hell, let’s call it Fury by sixth-round stoppage. Or Wilder by sixth-round stoppage. Whatever. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

I cannot say with absolute certainty just how Tyson Fury will beat Deontay Wilder but he definitely will because one thing I am certain of (after seeing them fight twice) is that Wilder cannot and will not beat the undefeated Gypsy King. Fury wins again. Probably another pulverizing TKO. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

I love this fight because I don’t know what will happen. I’m mystified by all the people who, eighteen months ago, were calling Wilder the hardest puncher in boxing history and are saying now that he doesn’t have a chance. If Fury is in fighting shape, I think he wins by a late stoppage. But he might not be. I’ll let you know after two rounds. – THOMAS HAUSER

The wild card here that no one talks about his Wilder’s new trainer Malik Scott. He’s young (turns 40 this month) and unproven, but people that know him well tell me he’s very sharp. If he can equip Deontay with an effective jab (Wilder uses his left merely as a range finder), then Fury will be up against a different cat than the one he fought in March of last year. However, Fury dismantled Wilder so thoroughly in their second meeting that I hesitate to pick against him. Fury TKO 11. – ARNE LANG

I like Fury by stoppage in the sixth round or sooner. I’d love to give Wilder the benefit of the doubt in the third fight, but I’ve seen nothing from the former champ to suggest he’s done anything to fix his flaws. There’s a fine line in boxing between the good kind of denial that can keep you fighting to win even though you’re down on the cards and the bad kind that keeps you from bettering yourself. Wilder was soundly whipped in the second fight. To have a chance in the third, he needed to admit it. He didn’t, so another beating is on the way. – KELSEY McCARSON

The first fight demonstrated what an out of shape Tyson Fury can do with a focused Deontay Wilder; the second fight demonstrated what a focused Fury can do with a hampered Wilder. This needless third fight will have me up at 5am because, hey, it’s the world’s heavyweight championship, but it is just a case of when and where, the who is already known. I’ll pick Fury to get Wilder out of there in ten, but it’s a little arbitrary because the details depend upon the intangibles – training, focus, alcohol and injury. – MATT McGRAIN

Courtroom scuffles, recriminations, Covid-19 infections, and the general zaniness of the principal characters has enveloped the third bout between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder in a fog of uncertainty, a somewhat surprising development given how lopsided a beatdown Fury handed to Wilder in their second match nearly 20 months ago and which subsequently seemed to render the idea of another go-around redundant. When you consider Fury’s erratic nature – he dropped out of the Wladimir Klitschko rematch in what should have been his first defense of his heavyweight titles and then bottomed out, going through a life-threatening bender of drugs, alcohol and depression – and the fact that Wilder, for all his sordid conspiratorial accusations, remains, if nothing else, one of the sport’s most lethal knockout artists — then you consider all these shifting elements at play, you begin to think anything is possible. With no confidence at all: Fury on points. – SEAN NAM

Wilder was both mentally and physically destroyed by the giant. The same thing will happen this time. Wilder’s best bet is to go all out and try to get Fury into an exchange, opening up the possibility of the big right, but the “Traveler” is too savvy for that. I believe it was Hagler who said “destruct and destroy.” That’s what this will be —- again. – TED SARES

Brain says Fury, gut says Wilder. Only sure thing is that the winner is true heavyweight champion by virtue of “man who beat the man.” Prior action in their first two fights leans heavily in Fury’s direction but there’s also high probability Wilder is by far the hungrier of the two since his debacle in February 2020, and plenty of documented distractions around the Gypsy King. Would have to recommend that friends bet on Fury, but if it was my own cash I’d put it on Wilder. – PHIL WOOLEVER

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Arne’s Almanac: The First BWAA Dinner Was Quite the Shindig

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The first annual dinner of the Boxing Writers Association of America was staged on April 25, 1926 in the grand ballroom of New York’s Hotel Astor, an edifice that rivaled the original Waldorf Astoria as the swankiest hotel in the city. Back then, the organization was known as the Boxing Writers Association of Greater New York.

The ballroom was configured to hold 1200 for the banquet which was reportedly oversubscribed. Among those listed as agreeing to attend were the governors of six states (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Maryland) and the mayors of 10 of America’s largest cities.

In 1926, radio was in its infancy and the digital age was decades away (and inconceivable). So, every journalist who regularly covered boxing was a newspaper and/or magazine writer, editor, or cartoonist. And at this juncture in American history, there were plenty of outlets for someone who wanted to pursue a career as a sportswriter and had the requisite skills to get hired.

The following papers were represented at the inaugural boxing writers’ dinner:

New York Times

New York News

New York World

New York Sun

New York Journal

New York Post

New York Mirror

New York Telegram

New York Graphic

New York Herald Tribune

Brooklyn Eagle

Brooklyn Times

Brooklyn Standard Union

Brooklyn Citizen

Bronx Home News

This isn’t a complete list because a few of these papers, notably the New York World and the New York Journal, had strong afternoon editions that functioned as independent papers. Plus, scribes from both big national wire services (Associated Press and UPI) attended the banquet and there were undoubtedly a smattering of scribes from papers in New Jersey and Connecticut.

Back then, the event’s organizer Nat Fleischer, sports editor of the New York Telegram and the driving force behind The Ring magazine, had little choice but to limit the journalistic component of the gathering to writers in the New York metropolitan area. There wasn’t a ballroom big enough to accommodate a good-sized response if he had extended the welcome to every boxing writer in North America.

The keynote speaker at the inaugural dinner was New York’s charismatic Jazz Age mayor James J. “Jimmy” Walker, architect of the transformative Walker Law of 1920 which ushered in a new era of boxing in the Empire State with a template that would guide reformers in many other jurisdictions.

Prizefighting was then associated with hooligans. In his speech, Mayor Walker promised to rid the sport of their ilk. “Boxing, as you know, is closest to my heart,” said hizzoner. “So I tell you the police force is behind you against those who would besmirch or injure boxing. Rowdyism doesn’t belong in this town or in your game.” (In 1945, Walker would be the recipient of the Edward J. Neil Memorial Award given for meritorious service to the sport. The oldest of the BWAA awards, the previous recipients were all active or former boxers. The award, no longer issued under that title, was named for an Associated Press sportswriter and war correspondent who died from shrapnel wounds covering the Spanish Civil War.)

Another speaker was well-traveled sportswriter Wilbur Wood, then affiliated with the Brooklyn Citizen. He told the assembly that the aim of the organization was two-fold: to help defend the game against its detractors and to promote harmony among the various factions.

Of course, the 1926 dinner wouldn’t have been as well-attended without the entertainment. According to press dispatches, Broadway stars and performers from some of the city’s top nightclubs would be there to regale the attendees. Among the names bandied about were vaudeville superstars Sophie Tucker and Jimmy Durante, the latter of whom would appear with his trio, Durante, (Lou) Clayton, and (Eddie) Jackson.

There was a contraction of New York newspapers during the Great Depression. Although empirical evidence is lacking, the inaugural boxing writers dinner was likely the largest of its kind. Fifteen years later, in 1941, the event drew “more than 200” according to a news report. There was no mention of entertainment.

In 1950, for the first time, the annual dinner was opened to the public. For $25, a civilian could get a meal and mingle with some of his favorite fighters. Sugar Ray Robinson was the Edward J. Neil Award winner that year, honored for his ring exploits and for donating his purse from the Charlie Fusari fight to the Damon Runyon Cancer Fund.

There was no formal announcement when the Boxing Writers Association of Greater New York was re-christened the Boxing Writers Association of America, but by the late 1940s reporters were referencing the annual event as simply the boxing writers dinner. By then, it had become traditional to hold the annual affair in January, a practice discontinued after 1971.

The winnowing of New York’s newspaper herd plus competing banquets in other parts of the country forced Nat Fleischer’s baby to adapt. And more adaptations will be necessary in the immediate future as the future of the BWAA, as it currently exists, is threatened by new technologies. If the forthcoming BWAA dinner (April 30 at the Edison Ballroom in mid-Manhattan) were restricted to wordsmiths from the traditional print media, the gathering would be too small to cover the nut and the congregants would be drawn disproportionately from the geriatric class.

Some of those adaptations have already started. Last year, Las Vegas resident Sean Zittel, a recent UNLV graduate, had the distinction of becoming the first videographer welcomed into the BWAA. With more and more people getting their news from sound bites, rather than the written word, the videographer serves an important function.

The reporters who conducted interviews with pen and paper have gone the way of the dodo bird and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A taped interview for a “talkie” has more integrity than a story culled from a paper and pen interview because it is unfiltered. Many years ago, some reporters, after interviewing the great Joe Louis, put  words in his mouth that made him seem like a dullard, words consistent with the Sambo stereotype. In other instances, the language of some athletes was reconstructed to the point where the reader would think the athlete had a second job as an English professor.

The content created by videographers is free from that bias. More of them will inevitably join the BWAA and similar organizations in the future.

Photo: Nat Fleischer is flanked by Sugar Ray Robinson and Tony Zale at the 1947 boxing writers dinner.

A recognized authority on the history of prizefighting and the history of American sports gambling, TSS editor-in-chief Arne K. Lang is the author of five books including “Prizefighting: An American History,” released by McFarland in 2008 and re-released in a paperback edition in 2020.
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Gabriela Fundora KOs Marilyn Badillo and Perez Upsets Conwell in Oceanside

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It was just a numbers game for Gabriela Fundora and despite Mexico’s Marilyn Badillo’s elusive tactics it took the champion one punch to end the fight and retain her undisputed flyweight world title by knockout on Saturday.

Will it be her last flyweight defense?

Though Fundora (16-0, 8 KOs) fired dozens of misses, a single punch found Badillo (19-1-1, 3 KOs) and ended her undefeated career and first attempt at a world title at the Frontwave Arena in Oceanside, California.

Fundora, however, proves unbeatable at flyweight.

The champion entered the arena as the headliner for the Golden Boy Promotion show and stepped through the ropes with every physical advantage possible, including power.

Mexico’s Badillo was a midget compared to Fundora but proved to be as elusive as a butterfly in a menagerie for the first six rounds. As the six-inch taller Fundora connected on one punch for every dozen thrown, that single punch was a deadly reminder.

Badillo tried ducking low and slipping to the left while countering with slashing uppercuts, she found little success. She did find the body a solid target but the blows proved to be useless. And when Badillo clinched, that proved more erroneous as Fundora belted her rapidly during the tie-ups.

“She was kind of doing her ducking thing,” said Fundora describing Badillo’s defensive tactics. “I just put the pressure on. It was just like a train. We didn’t give her that break.”

The Mexican fighter tried valiantly with various maneuvers. None proved even slightly successful. Fundora remained poised and under control as she stalked the challenger.

In the seventh round Badillo seemed to take a stand and try to slug it out with Fundora. She quickly was lit up by rapid left crosses and down she went at 1:44 of the seventh round. The Mexican fighter’s corner wisely waved off the fight and referee Rudy Barragan stopped the fight and held the dazed Badillo upright.

Once again Fundora remained champion by knockout. The only question now is will she move up to super flyweight or bantamweight to challenge the bigger girls.

Perez Beats Conwell.

Mexico’s Jorge “Chino” Perez (33-4, 26 KOs) upset Charles Conwell (21-1, 15 KOs) to win by split decision after 12 rounds in their super welterweight showdown.

It was a match that paired two hard-hitting fighters whose ledgers brimmed with knockouts, but neither was able to score a knockdown against each other.

Neither fighter moved backward. It was full steam ahead with Conwell proving successful to the body and head with left hooks and Perez connecting with rights to the head and body. It was difficult to differentiate the winner.

Though Conwell seemed to be the superior defensive fighter and more accurate, two judges preferred Perez’s busier style. They gave the fight to Perez by 115-113 scores with the dissenter favoring Conwell by the same margin.

It was Conwell’s first pro loss. Maybe it will open doors for more opportunities.

Other Bouts

Tristan Kalkreuth (15-1) managed to pass a serious heat check by unanimous decision against former contender Felix Valera (24-8) after a 10-round back-and-forth heavyweight fight.

It was very close.

Kalkreuth is one of those fighters that possess all the physical tools including youth and size but never seems to be able to show it. Once again he edged past another foe but at least this time he faced an experienced fighter in Valera.

Valera had his moments especially in the middle of the 10-round fight but slowed down during the last three rounds.

One major asset for Kalkreuth was his chin. He got caught but still motored past the clever Valera. After 10 rounds two judges saw it 99-91 and one other judge 97-93 all for Kalkreuth.

Highly-rated prospect Ruslan Abdullaev (2-0) blasted past dangerous Jino Rodrigo (13- 5-2) in an eight round super lightweight fight. He nearly stopped the very tough Rodrigo in the last two rounds and won by unanimous decision.

Abdullaev is trained by Joel and Antonio Diaz in Indio.

Bakersfield prospect Joel Iriarte (7-0, 7 KOs) needed only 1:44 to knock out Puerto Rico’s Marcos Jimenez (25-12) in a welterweight bout.

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‘Krusher’ Kovalev Exits on a Winning Note: TKOs Artur Mann in his ‘Farewell Fight’

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At his peak, former three-time world light heavyweight champion Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev ranked high on everyone’s pound-for-pound list. Now 42 years old – he turned 42 earlier this month – Kovalev has been largely inactive in recent years, but last night he returned to the ring in his hometown of Chelyabinsk, Russia, and rose to the occasion in what was billed as his farewell fight, stopping Artur Mann in the seventh frame.

Kovalev hit his peak during his first run as a world title-holder. He was 30-0-1 (26 KOs) entering first match with Andre Ward, a mark that included a 9-0 mark in world title fights. The only blemish on his record was a draw that could have been ruled a no-contest (journeyman Grover Young was unfit to continue after Kovalev knocked down in the second round what with was deemed an illegal rabbit punch). Among those nine wins were two stoppages of dangerous Haitian-Canadian campaigner Jean Pascal and a 12-round shutout over Bernard Hopkins.

Kovalev’s stature was not diminished by his loss to the undefeated Ward. All three judges had it 114-113, but the general feeling among the ringside press was that Sergey nicked it.

The rematch was also somewhat controversial. Referee Tony Weeks, who halted the match in the eighth stanza with Kovalev sitting on the lower strand of ropes, was accused of letting Ward get away with a series of low blows, including the first punch of a three-punch series of body shots that culminated in the stoppage. Sergey was wobbled by a punch to the head earlier in the round and was showing signs of fatigue, but he was still in the fight. Respected judge Steve Weisfeld had him up by three points through the completed rounds.

Sergey Kovalev was never the same after his second loss to Andre Ward, albeit he recaptured a piece of the 175-pound title twice, demolishing Vyacheslav Shabranskyy for the vacant WBO belt after Ward announced his retirement and then avenging a loss to Eleider Alvarez (TKO by 7) with a comprehensive win on points in their rematch.

Kovalev’s days as a title-holder ended on Nov. 2, 2019 when Canelo Alvarez, moving up two weight classes to pursue a title in a fourth weight division, stopped him in the 11th round, terminating what had been a relatively even fight with a hellacious left-right combination that left Krusher so discombobulated that a count was superfluous.

That fight went head-to-head with a UFC fight in New York City. DAZN, to their everlasting discredit, opted to delay the start of Canelo-Kovalev until the main event of the UFC fight was finished. The delay lasted more than an hour and Kovalev would say that he lost his psychological edge during the wait.

Kovalev had two fights in the cruiserweight class between his setback to Canelo and last night’s presumptive swan song. He outpointed Tervel Pulev in Los Angeles and lost a 10-round decision to unheralded Robin Sirwan Safar in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Artur Mann, a former world title challenger – he was stopped in three rounds by Mairis Briedis in 2021 when Briedis was recognized as the top cruiserweight in the world – was unexceptional, but the 34-year-old German, born in Kazakhstan, wasn’t chopped liver either, and Kovalev’s stoppage of him will redound well to the Russian when he becomes eligible for the Boxing Hall of Fame.

Krusher almost ended the fight in the second round. He knocked Mann down hard with a short left hand and seemingly scored another knockdown before the round was over (but it was ruled a slip). Mann barely survived the round.

In the next round, a punch left Mann with a bad cut on his right eyelid, but the German came to fight and rounds three, four and five were competitive.

Kovalev had a good sixth round although there were indications that he was tiring. But in the seventh he got a second wind and unleashed a right-left combination that rolled back the clock to the days when he was one of the sport’s most feared punchers. Mann went down hard and as he staggered to his feet, his corner signaled that the fight should be stopped and the referee complied. The official time was 0:49 of round seven. It was the 30th KO for Kovalev who advanced his record to 36-5-1.

Addendum: History informs us that Farewell Fights have a habit of becoming redundant, by which we mean that boxers often get the itch to fight again after calling it quits. Have we seen the last of Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev? We woudn’t bet on it.

The complete Kovalev-Mann fight card was live-streamed on the Boxing News youtube channel.

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