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The Official TSS Usyk-Joshua II Prediction Page

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When a big fight comes down the pike and if the odds are not too lopsided, we turn to our fine community of wordsmiths to get their thoughts. When Anthony Joshua defended his world heavyweight titles against former unified cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last year, the general feeling was that Joshua was just too big for him and the odds reflected the conventional wisdom. My how things have changed.

The members of our panel are listed alphabetically.

Usyk’s superior footwork is one of the big reasons he handily defeated Joshua last year. Joshua constantly looked like he was stuck in mud as Usyk was brilliantly moving around the ring peppering Joshua with punches coming from all sorts of different angles. I just can’t see a trainer-switch fixing this problem for Joshua. Outside of the oft chance of the well-schooled USYK getting careless for a moment and Joshua landing something fight-altering, I see a repeat of the first encounter. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

Giving away three inches in height and perhaps 20 pounds in weight will not mean much when Oleksandr Usyk meets Anthony Joshua for the second time in 11 months. The thinking behind this is that as long as Usyk keeps his distance, moves his feet, employs his jab and adds a steady diet of straight shots he will emerge with another UD over Joshua and remain undefeated. The Brit is more than capable of winning but the pick is USYK – RICK ASSAD

“Size matters,” we often hear, and maybe it does on the basketball court and in porno movies. But in boxing — that fairest of sports, given its adherence to (most) weight divisions, thus preventing significant weight disadvantages — good little guys sometimes are paired against good big guys, usually to the detriment of the smaller guy. But BETTER little guys can and do defeat bigger guys in heavyweight competition, as Roy Jones Jr. proved against John Ruiz. Oleksandr Usyk is markedly smaller than Anthony Joshua, who is a good big guy, but the Ukrainian’s skill set is more varied and developed. He won the first fight by outboxing AJ, and I see it happening again. USYK by UD. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

Anthony Joshua cannot afford another loss if he wants to lure Tyson Fury out his latest “retirement” and so the “Pride of Watford” will be in top form for the rematch with Oleksandr Usyk. I see AJ fighting big and keeping the smaller man speared on the end of his long jab. Usyk will not go without a fight but that’s exactly what Joshua will not be willing to get into with the defending heavyweight champion. JOSHUA boxes smart and gets a close but clear decision in Saudi Arabia. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

Folks in Usyk’s homeland don’t need a subscription to DAZN to see this fight; it will be on free TV in the Ukraine as a way of getting people’s mind off the war. And the expectation is that Usyk will bring his embattled homies some much-needed good cheer. AJ has appeared gun-shy lately and doesn’t have as many dimensions to his game. He’s 1-0 in rematches, but Andy Ruiz was poorly conditioned and effectively gave back his newly-won belt before he entered the ring. Oleksandr carried 221 pounds for their first meeting and has reportedly bulked-up in the interim. That concerns me; the extra weight could compromise his nimble-ness. However, I suspect this encounter will be pretty much a carbon of what transpired in London last year. USYK by decision – ARNE LANG

It was so long ago that I predicted Oleksandr Usyk would eventually beat Anthony Joshua that neither one was a champion and I was yet to pen an article for The Sweet Science. There is no way to change this horse which is not so much mid-stream as far out to sea. USYK will win, and it will not be difficult, in the sense that the Ukrainian, with more to fight for now than ever before, will never be in danger. Whether his victory comes by stoppage or by decision is up to Joshua. If the Brit, who we may see let-fly early, continues to try to win he will be stopped; if he throws up the white flag, Usyk will probably allow him to hear the final bell. Note that with the recent retirement of Tyson Fury, this would make Usyk the founder of a new heavyweight lineage. — MATT McGRAIN

Because the attributes associated with him tend to be of the colossal variety—from the rippling physique that not even Praxiteles could likely improve to the till-whistling marketability of his name to the concussive punching power—Anthony Joshua is perhaps better able than most others to shield the mental gyrations inside his head from public view. But make no mistake, he is as maladjusted as they come today, hemmed in by an apparently crippling neurosis: He has no confidence in his chin and that has afflicted his offensive output. In the first fight with Oleksandr Usyk, a former cruiserweight blown up to heavyweight standards, last year, Joshua fought as if he was walking on a high wire, timid and insecure, his punches resembling flicks rather than the haymakers expected of a fighter with his natural gifts. Unless Joshua was able to remove years of psychological baggage in one camp—however expertly run it may have been by new hire Robert Garcia—he will find himself subject to the same psychic terrors when he enters the ring Saturday night in Saudi Arabia for the rematch against a superior fighter who not only knows how to outfox him, skill-for-skill, over 12 rounds, but who also realizes that he can finish the job inside the distance. USYK by 10th-round TKO. – SEAN NAM

The bulked-up and cerebral Oleksandr “The Cat” Usyk will stop Anthony Joshua in the late rounds in Saudi Arabia on August 20. Like fellow Ukrainian Vasiliy Lomachenko, he has speed, agility, and slickness (and a tremendous amateur background), but unlike Loma, there is no flamboyance, i.e., showboating. He is all business and very aggressive. AJ will not be able to avoid being out-bullied as “THE CAT” scratches and claws his way to victory, and with the added weight, a victory that could come brutally. – TED SARES

Joshua has the size and the strength. Usyk has the will and the skill. Joshua has been mostly a one-trick pony while Usyk has continually adapted and improved, but those keys favoring Usyk are probably nullified based on the relative intangibles of AJ’s new trainer, Saudi Arabia, and unignorable distractions from the war in Ukraine. This is the kind of match in which old Vegas handicappers would list each man at minus-110 / pick ’em, and I was told “keep your betting money in your pocket and just enjoy the fight.” – PHIL WOOLEVER

Postscript: It’s our understanding that Saturday’s DAZN live stream will start about noon in the Pacific Time Zone of the United States with the ring walks for the main event commencing about 2:30 (5:30 pm ET). However, we have seen conflicting reports, so best to check back as we get closer to post. The Usyk-Joshua rematch tops a 10-fight card that includes such notables as Callum Smith and Badou Jack plus an important heavyweight match between Filip Hrgovic and Zhilei Zhang.

Postscript #2: Where big fights are concerned, money historically comes in late on the underdog until the final hours of betting when the so-called sharps lay the lumber on the favorite at the reduced price and the odds shoot back up. However, looking at the various polls out there, including this one, Oleksandr Usyk is such an overwhelming pick that it’s a fair guess that late money on the underdog (Anthony Joshua) won’t show to any appreciable degree. (AKL)

Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 289: East LA, Claressa Shields and More

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Avila Perspective, Chap. 289: East LA, Claressa Shields and More

East Los Angeles has long been a haven for some of the best fighters around if you can keep them out of trouble. For every Oscar De La Hoya or Seniesa Estrada there are thousands derailed by crime, drugs or drinking.

Boxing has always been a favorite sport of East L.A. Every family has an uncle or two who boxes.

On Friday, 360 Promotions’ Omar Trinidad (15-0-1) fights Viktor Slavinskyi (15-2-1) in the main event at Commerce Casino, in Commerce, CA. UFC Fight Pass will stream the fight card.

The City of Commerce used to be part of East L.A. until 1960 when it incorporated. It’s still considered to be part of East Los Angeles, but informally.

Plenty of fighters come out of East L.A. but few make it all the way like De La Hoya and Estrada. Will Trinidad be the one?

The first world champion from East L.A. or “East Los” as some call it, was Solly Garcia Smith back in the late 1800s. Others were Richie Lemos, Art Frias and Joey Olivo. There is also 1984 Olympic gold medalist Paul Gonzalez.

Once again 360 Promotions brings its popular brand of fights to the area. On this fight card includes two female bouts. One features Roxy Verduzco (1-0) the former amateur star fighting Colleen Davis (3-1-1) in a featherweight fight.

All that action takes place on Friday.

Elite Boxing

The next day, also in East L.A., Elite Boxing stages another boxing card at Salesian High School located at 960 S. Soto Street in the Boyle Heights area of East Los Angeles.

Elite Boxing has promoted several successful boxing cards at the Catholic high school grounds. The area is saturated by many of the best eateries in Los Angeles. Don’t take my word for it. Check it out yourself and grab some of that delicious food.

Boxing has long been a favorite sport of anyone who lives in East L.A. It’s a fight town equal to Philadelphia, Brooklyn or Detroit. There’s something different about the area. For more than 100 years some of the best fighters continue to come out of its boxing gyms. Some will be performing on these club shows.

For tickets or information go to www.eliteboxingusa.com

Claressa Shields in Detroit

Speaking of fight towns, pound-for-pound best Claressa Shields who won two Olympic Gold Medals in boxing, moves up another weight division to tackle the WBC heavyweight world champion Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse on Saturday, July 27, at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

DAZN will stream the heavy-duty fight card.

Shields (14-0) cleaned out the super welterweight, middleweight and super middleweight divisions and now wants to add the big girls to her conquests. She will be facing Canada’s Lepage-Joanisse  (7-1) who holds the WBC belt.

The last time Shields gloved up was more than a year ago when she fought Maricela Cornejo. Don’t blame Shields. She loves to fight. She loves to win. The last time Shields lost a fight was in the amateurs and that was three presidential administrations ago.

Shields doesn’t lose.

I wonder if Las Vegas even takes bets on her fights?

The only fight she may have been an underdog was against Savannah Marshall who was the last opponent to defeat her. And that was in 2012 in China. When they met as pros two years ago, Shields avenged her loss with a blistering attack.

Don’t get Shields mad.

Perhaps her toughest foe as a pro was in her pro debut when she clashed with Franchon Crews-Dezurn in Las Vegas. It was four rounds of fists and fury as the two pounded each other on the undercard of Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev in November 2016.

That was a ferocious debut for both female pugilists.

Assisting Shields on this fight card will be several intriguing male bouts. One guy you should pay special attention is Tito Mercado (15-0, 14 KOs) a super lightweight prospect from Pomona, California.

Many excellent fighters have come out of Pomona including Sugar Shane Mosley, Shane Mosley Jr., Alberto Davila and Richie Sandoval who just passed away this week.

Sandoval was best known for his 15-round war with Philadelphia’s Jeff Chandler for the bantamweight world title in 1984. Read the story by Arne K. Lang on this link: https://tss.ib.tv/boxing/featured-boxing-articles-boxing-news-videos-rankings-and-results/81467-former-world-bantamweight-champion-richie-sandoval-passes-away-at-age-63 .

Fights to Watch

Fri. UFC Fight Pass 7 p.m. Omar Trinidad (15-0-1) vs Viktor Slavinskyi (15-2-1).

Sat. ESPN+ 12:30 p.m. Joe Joyce (16-2) vs Derek Chisora (34-13).

Sat. DAZN  3 p.m. Claressa Shields (14-0) vs Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse (7-1), Michel Rivera (25-1) vs Hugo Roldan (22-2-1); Tito Mercado (15-0) vs Hector Sarmiento (21-2).

Omar Trinidad photo by Lina Baker

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Arne’s Almanac: Jake Paul and Women’s Boxing, a Curmudgeon’s Take

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Jake Paul can fight more than a little. The view from here is that he would make it interesting against any fringe contender in the cruiserweight division. However, Jake’s boxing acumen pales when paired against his skill as a flim-flam artist.

Jake brought a 9-1 record into last weekend’s bout with Mike Perry. As noted by boxing writer Paul Magno, Jake’s previous opponents consisted of “a You Tuber, a retired NBA star, five retired MMA stars, a part-time boxer/reality TV star, and two undersized and inactive fall-guy boxers.”

Mike Perry, a 32-year-old Floridian, was undefeated (6-0, 3 KOs) as a bare-knuckle boxer after forging a 14-8 record in UFC bouts. In pre-fight blurbs, Perry was billed as the baddest bare knuckle boxer of all time, but against Jake Paul he proved to have very unrefined skills as a conventional boxer which Team Paul undoubtedly knew all along. Perry lasted into the eighth round in a one-sided fight that could have been stopped a lot sooner.

Jake Paul is both a boxer and a promoter. As a promoter, he handles Amanda Serrano, one of the greatest female boxers in history. That makes him the person most responsible (because the buck stops with him) for the wretched mismatch in last Saturday’s co-feature, the bout between Serrano and Stevie Morgan.

Morgan, who took up boxing two years ago at age 33, brought a 14-1 record. Nicknamed the Sledgehammer, she had won 13 of her 14 wins by knockout, eight in the opening round. However, although she resides in Florida, all but one of those 13 knockouts happened in Colombia.

“We found that in Colombia there were just more opportunities for women’s boxing than in the United States,” she told a prominent boxing writer whose name we won’t mention.

The truth is that, for some folks, Colombia is the boxing equivalent of a feeder lot for livestock, a place where a boxer can go to fatten their record. The opportunities there were no greater than in Hot Springs, Arkansas, in 1995. It was there that Peter McNeeley prepped for his match with Mike Tyson with a 6-second knockout of professional punching bag Frankie Hines. (Six seconds? So it would be written although no one seems to have been there to witness it.)

Serrano vs Morgan was understood to be a stay-busy fight for Amanda whose rematch with Katie Taylor was postponed until November. Stevie Morgan, to her credit, answered the bell for the second round whereas others in her situation would have remained on the stool and invented an injury to rationalize it. Thirty-eight seconds later it was all over and Ms. Morgan was free to go home and use her sledgehammer to do some light dusting.

The Paul-Perry and Serrano-Morgan fights played out in a sold-out arena in Tampa before an estimated 17,000. Those without a DAZN subscription paid $64.95 for the livestream. Paul’s next promotion, where he will touch gloves with 58-year-old Mike Tyson (unless Iron Mike pulls a Joe Biden and pulls out; a capital idea) with Serrano-Taylor II the semi-main, will almost certainly rake in more money than any other boxing promotion this year.

Asked his opinion of so-called crossover boxing by a reporter for a college newspaper, the venerable boxing promoter Bob Arum said, “It’s not my bag but folks who don’t like it shouldn’t get too worked up over it because no one is stealing from anybody.” True enough, but for some of us, the phenomenon is distressing.

The next big women’s fight happens Saturday in Detroit where Claressa Shields seeks a world title in a third weight class against WBC heavyweight belt-holder Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse.

A two-time Olympic gold medalist, undefeated in 14 fights as a pro, Shields is very good, arguably the best female boxer of her generation which makes her, arguably, the best female boxer of all time. But turning away Lepage-Joanisse (7-1, 2 KOs) won’t elevate her stature in our eyes.

Purportedly 17-4 as an amateur, the Canadian won her title in her second crack at it. Back in August of 2017, she challenged Cancun’s Alejandra Jimenez in Cancun and was stopped in the third round. Entering the bout, Lepage-Joanisse was 3-0 as a pro and had never fought a match slated for more than four rounds.

Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse

Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse

True, on the women’s side, the heavyweight bracket is a very small pod. A sanctioning body has to make concessions to harness a sanctioning fee. Nonetheless, how absurd that a woman who had answered the bell for only 11 rounds would be deemed qualified to compete for a world title. (FYI: Alejandra Jimenez was purportedly born a man. She left the sport with a 12-0-1 record after her win over Franchon Crews Dazurn was changed to a no-contest when she tested positive for the banned steroid stanozolol.)

Following her defeat to Jimenez, Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse, now 29 years old, was out of action for six-and-a-half years. When she returned, she was still a heavyweight, but a much slender heavyweight. She carried 231 pounds for Jimenez. In her most recent bout where she captured the vacant WBC title with a split decision over Argentina’s Abril Argentina Vidal, she clocked in at 173 ¼. (On the distaff side, there’s no uniformity among the various sanctioning bodies as to what constitutes a heavyweight.)

Claressa Shields doesn’t need Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse to reinforce her credentials as a future Hall of Famer. She made the cut a long time ago.

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Former World Bantamweight Champion Richie Sandoval Passes Away at Age 63

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Richie Sandoval, who won the WBA and lineal bantamweight title in one of the biggest upsets of the 1980s and then, not quite two years later, suffered near-fatal injuries in a title defense, has passed away at the age of 63.

News circulated fast in the Las Vegas boxing community on Monday, July 22, the grapevine actuated by a tweet from Hall of Fame matchmaker Bruce Trampler: “Boxing and the Top Rank family lost one of our own last night in the passing of former WBA bantamweight champion Richie Sandoval. It hurts personally and professionally to know that Richie is gone at age 63. RIP campeon.”

Details are vague but the cause of death was apparently a sudden heart attack that Sandoval experienced while visiting the Southern California home of his son of the same name.

Richie Sandoval put the LA County community of Pomona, California, on the boxing map before Shane Mosley came along and gave the town a more frequently-cited mention in the sports section of the papers. He came from a fighting family. An older brother, Albert “Superfly” Sandoval, became a big draw at LA’s fabled Olympic Auditorium while building a 35-2-1 record that included a failed bid to capture Lupe Pintor’s world bantamweight title.

Richie was a member of the 1980 U.S. Olympic boxing team that was stranded when U.S. President Jimmy Carter (and many other world leaders) boycotted the event as a protest against Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan.

As a pro, Sandoval’s signature win was a 15th-round stoppage of Jeff Chandler. They fought on April 7, 1984 in Atlantic City. Chandler was making the tenth defense of his world bantamweight title.

Despite being a heavy underdog, Sandoval dominated the fight, winning almost every round until the referee stepped in and waived it off. Chandler, who was 33-1-2 heading in and had avenged his lone defeat, never fought again.

Sandoval made two successful defenses before risking his title against Gaby Canizales on the undercard of Hagler-Mugabi in the outdoor stadium at Caesars Palace. In round seven, Sandoval, who had a hellish time making the weight, was knocked down three times and suffered a seizure as he collapsed from the third knockdown. Stretchered out of the ring, he was rushed to the hospital where doctors reduced the swelling in his brain and beat the odds to save his life. This would be Richie’s lone defeat. He finished his pro career with a record of 29-1 (17 KOs).

Bob Arum cushioned some of the pain by giving Richie a $25,000 bonus and offering him a lifetime job at Top Rank which Richie accepted. And let the record show that Arum was good to his word.

A more elaborate portrait of Richie Sandoval was published in these pages in 2017. You can check it out HERE. May he rest in peace.

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