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The Official TSS Usyk-Joshua II Prediction Page

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When a big fight comes down the pike and if the odds are not too lopsided, we turn to our fine community of wordsmiths to get their thoughts. When Anthony Joshua defended his world heavyweight titles against former unified cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last year, the general feeling was that Joshua was just too big for him and the odds reflected the conventional wisdom. My how things have changed.

The members of our panel are listed alphabetically.

Usyk’s superior footwork is one of the big reasons he handily defeated Joshua last year. Joshua constantly looked like he was stuck in mud as Usyk was brilliantly moving around the ring peppering Joshua with punches coming from all sorts of different angles. I just can’t see a trainer-switch fixing this problem for Joshua. Outside of the oft chance of the well-schooled USYK getting careless for a moment and Joshua landing something fight-altering, I see a repeat of the first encounter. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

Giving away three inches in height and perhaps 20 pounds in weight will not mean much when Oleksandr Usyk meets Anthony Joshua for the second time in 11 months. The thinking behind this is that as long as Usyk keeps his distance, moves his feet, employs his jab and adds a steady diet of straight shots he will emerge with another UD over Joshua and remain undefeated. The Brit is more than capable of winning but the pick is USYK – RICK ASSAD

“Size matters,” we often hear, and maybe it does on the basketball court and in porno movies. But in boxing — that fairest of sports, given its adherence to (most) weight divisions, thus preventing significant weight disadvantages — good little guys sometimes are paired against good big guys, usually to the detriment of the smaller guy. But BETTER little guys can and do defeat bigger guys in heavyweight competition, as Roy Jones Jr. proved against John Ruiz. Oleksandr Usyk is markedly smaller than Anthony Joshua, who is a good big guy, but the Ukrainian’s skill set is more varied and developed. He won the first fight by outboxing AJ, and I see it happening again. USYK by UD. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

Anthony Joshua cannot afford another loss if he wants to lure Tyson Fury out his latest “retirement” and so the “Pride of Watford” will be in top form for the rematch with Oleksandr Usyk. I see AJ fighting big and keeping the smaller man speared on the end of his long jab. Usyk will not go without a fight but that’s exactly what Joshua will not be willing to get into with the defending heavyweight champion. JOSHUA boxes smart and gets a close but clear decision in Saudi Arabia. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

Folks in Usyk’s homeland don’t need a subscription to DAZN to see this fight; it will be on free TV in the Ukraine as a way of getting people’s mind off the war. And the expectation is that Usyk will bring his embattled homies some much-needed good cheer. AJ has appeared gun-shy lately and doesn’t have as many dimensions to his game. He’s 1-0 in rematches, but Andy Ruiz was poorly conditioned and effectively gave back his newly-won belt before he entered the ring. Oleksandr carried 221 pounds for their first meeting and has reportedly bulked-up in the interim. That concerns me; the extra weight could compromise his nimble-ness. However, I suspect this encounter will be pretty much a carbon of what transpired in London last year. USYK by decision – ARNE LANG

It was so long ago that I predicted Oleksandr Usyk would eventually beat Anthony Joshua that neither one was a champion and I was yet to pen an article for The Sweet Science. There is no way to change this horse which is not so much mid-stream as far out to sea. USYK will win, and it will not be difficult, in the sense that the Ukrainian, with more to fight for now than ever before, will never be in danger. Whether his victory comes by stoppage or by decision is up to Joshua. If the Brit, who we may see let-fly early, continues to try to win he will be stopped; if he throws up the white flag, Usyk will probably allow him to hear the final bell. Note that with the recent retirement of Tyson Fury, this would make Usyk the founder of a new heavyweight lineage. — MATT McGRAIN

Because the attributes associated with him tend to be of the colossal variety—from the rippling physique that not even Praxiteles could likely improve to the till-whistling marketability of his name to the concussive punching power—Anthony Joshua is perhaps better able than most others to shield the mental gyrations inside his head from public view. But make no mistake, he is as maladjusted as they come today, hemmed in by an apparently crippling neurosis: He has no confidence in his chin and that has afflicted his offensive output. In the first fight with Oleksandr Usyk, a former cruiserweight blown up to heavyweight standards, last year, Joshua fought as if he was walking on a high wire, timid and insecure, his punches resembling flicks rather than the haymakers expected of a fighter with his natural gifts. Unless Joshua was able to remove years of psychological baggage in one camp—however expertly run it may have been by new hire Robert Garcia—he will find himself subject to the same psychic terrors when he enters the ring Saturday night in Saudi Arabia for the rematch against a superior fighter who not only knows how to outfox him, skill-for-skill, over 12 rounds, but who also realizes that he can finish the job inside the distance. USYK by 10th-round TKO. – SEAN NAM

The bulked-up and cerebral Oleksandr “The Cat” Usyk will stop Anthony Joshua in the late rounds in Saudi Arabia on August 20. Like fellow Ukrainian Vasiliy Lomachenko, he has speed, agility, and slickness (and a tremendous amateur background), but unlike Loma, there is no flamboyance, i.e., showboating. He is all business and very aggressive. AJ will not be able to avoid being out-bullied as “THE CAT” scratches and claws his way to victory, and with the added weight, a victory that could come brutally. – TED SARES

Joshua has the size and the strength. Usyk has the will and the skill. Joshua has been mostly a one-trick pony while Usyk has continually adapted and improved, but those keys favoring Usyk are probably nullified based on the relative intangibles of AJ’s new trainer, Saudi Arabia, and unignorable distractions from the war in Ukraine. This is the kind of match in which old Vegas handicappers would list each man at minus-110 / pick ’em, and I was told “keep your betting money in your pocket and just enjoy the fight.” – PHIL WOOLEVER

Postscript: It’s our understanding that Saturday’s DAZN live stream will start about noon in the Pacific Time Zone of the United States with the ring walks for the main event commencing about 2:30 (5:30 pm ET). However, we have seen conflicting reports, so best to check back as we get closer to post. The Usyk-Joshua rematch tops a 10-fight card that includes such notables as Callum Smith and Badou Jack plus an important heavyweight match between Filip Hrgovic and Zhilei Zhang.

Postscript #2: Where big fights are concerned, money historically comes in late on the underdog until the final hours of betting when the so-called sharps lay the lumber on the favorite at the reduced price and the odds shoot back up. However, looking at the various polls out there, including this one, Oleksandr Usyk is such an overwhelming pick that it’s a fair guess that late money on the underdog (Anthony Joshua) won’t show to any appreciable degree. (AKL)

Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom

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Hall of Fame Boxing Writer Michael Katz (1939-2025) Could Wield His Pen like a Stiletto

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One of the last of the breed – a full-time boxing writer for the print edition of a major metropolitan daily – left us this week. Hall of Fame boxing writer Michael Katz was 85 when he drew his last breath at an assisted living facility in Brooklyn on Monday, Jan. 27.

Born in the Bronx, Katz earned his spurs writing for the school newspaper “The Campus” at the City College of New York. He was living in Paris and working for the international edition of the New York Times when he covered his first fight, the 15-round contest between Floyd Patterson and Jimmy Ellis at Stockholm in 1968. He eventually became the Times boxing writer, serving in that capacity for almost nine years before bolting for the New York Daily News in 1985 where he was reunited with the late Vic Ziegel, his former CCNY classmate and cohort at the campus newspaper.

From a legacy standpoint, leaving America’s “paper of record” for a tabloid would seem to be a step down. Before the digital age, the Times was one of only a handful of papers that could be found on microfilm in every college library. Tabloids like the Daily News were evanescent. Yesterday’s paper, said the cynics, was only good for wrapping fish.

But at the Daily News, Michael Katz was less fettered, less of a straight reporter and more of a columnist, freer to air his opinions which tended toward the snarky. Regarding the promoter Don King, Katz wrote, “On the way to the gallows, Don King would try to pick the pocket of the executioner.”

With his metaphoric inkwell steeped in bile, Katz made many enemies. “Bob Arum would sell tickets to a Joey Buttafuoco lecture on morals and be convinced it was for a noble cause,” wrote Katz in 1993. Arum had had enough when Katz took him to task for promoting a fight on the night of Yom Kippur and sued Katz for libel.

“It was out of my hands, HBO picked the date,” said Arum of the 1997 bout between Buster Douglas and John Ruiz that never did come off after Douglas suffered a hand injury in training. (Arum would subsequently drop the suit, saying it wasn’t worth the hassle.)

At press luncheons in Las Vegas, the PR people always made certain to seat Katz with his pals Ed Schuyler, the Associated Press boxing writer, and Pat Putnam, the Sports Illustrated guy. They reveled in each other’s company. But Katz also made enemies with some of his peers on press row, in some cases fracturing longstanding friendships.

“I like Hauser,” wrote Katz in a review of Thomas Hauser’s award-winning biography of Muhammad Ali, “and was afraid that after Tom put in those thousands of hours with Ali, somehow the book couldn’t be as good as I wanted. With relief, I can report it’s better than I had hoped.”

The two later had a falling-out.

Katz’s most celebrated run-in with a colleague happened in June of 2004 when he scuffled with Boston Globe boxing writer Ron Borges in the media room at the MGM Grand during the pre-fight press conference for the fight between Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Sturm. During the fracas, Katz, Borges, Arum, and Arum’s publicist Lee Samuels toppled to the floor. The cantankerous Katz, who initiated the fracas by attacking Borges verbally, then wore a neck brace and carried a cane.

“I had my ups and downs with him,” wrote Borges on social media upon learning of Katz’s death, “but we traveled the world together for nearly 50 years and I long admired his talent, his willingness to stand up for fighters and to call out the b.s. of boxing and its promoters and broadcast entities who worked diligently to try and destroy a noble sport.”

A little-known fact about Michael Katz is that he played a role in getting one of the best boxing books, George Kimball’s vaunted “Four Kings,” to its publishing house. Kimball, who passed away in 2011, an esophageal cancer victim at age 67, was hospitalized and too ill to finish the proofing and editing of the manuscript and enlisted the aid of Katz and an old friend from Boston, Tom Frail, an editor at the Smithsonian magazine, to complete the finishing touches. “If there are any mistakes in the book,” wisecracked Kimball, “blame them.”

Katz was one of the first sportswriters to hop on the internet bandwagon, moving his tack to HouseofBoxing.com which became MaxBoxing.com. That didn’t work out so well for him. Some of his last published pieces ran in the Memphis Commercial Appeal and in the Las Vegas weekly Gaming Today.

A widower for much of his adult life, Katz was predeceased by his only child, his beloved daughter Moorea, a cancer sufferer who passed away in 2021. Her death took all the spirit out of him, noted matchmaker and freelance boxing writer Eric Bottjer in a moving tribute.

During a moment in Atlantic City, Bottjer had been privy to a different side of the irascible curmudgeon, “a beautiful soul when open and vulnerable.” The best way to honor Katz’s memory, he writes, is to reach out to a long lost friend. Pass it on.

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Boxing Odds and Ends: Ernesto Mercado, Marcel Cerdan and More

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The TSS Fighter of the Month for January is super lightweight Ernesto “Tito” Mercado who scored his sixth straight knockout, advancing his record to 17-0 (16 KOs) with a fourth-round stoppage of Jose Pedraza on the undercard of Diego Pacheco vs. Steven Nelson at the Cosmopolitan Hotel in Las Vegas.

Mercado was expected to win. At age 35, Pedraza’s best days were behind him. But the Puerto Rican “Sniper” wasn’t chopped liver. A 2008 Beijing Olympian, he was a former two-division title-holder. In a previous fight in Las Vegas, in June of 2021, Pedraza proved too savvy for Julian Rodriguez (currently 23-1) whose corner pulled him out after eight rounds. So, although Mercado knew that he was the “A-side,” he also knew, presumably, that it was important to bring his “A” game.

Mercado edged each of the first three frames in what was shaping up as a tactical fight. In round four, he followed a short left hand with an overhand right that landed flush on Pedraza’s temple. “It was a discombobulating punch,” said one of DAZN’s talking heads. Indeed, the way that Pedraza fell was awkward. “[He] crushed colorfully backward and struck the back of his head on the canvas before rising on badly wobbled legs,” wrote ringside reporter Lance Pugmire.

He beat the count, but referee Robert Hoyle wisely waived it off.

Now 23 years old, Ernesto “Tito” Mercado was reportedly 58-5 as an amateur. At the December 2019 U.S. Olympic Trials in Lake Charles, Louisiana, he advanced to the finals in the lightweight division but then took sick and was medically disqualified from competing in the championship round. His opponent, Keyshawn Davis, won in a walkover and went on to win a silver medal at the Tokyo Games.

As a pro, only one of Mercado’s opponents, South African campaigner Xolisani Ndongeni, heard the final bell. Mercado won nine of the 10 rounds. The stubborn Ndongeni had previously gone 10 rounds with Devin Haney and would subsequently go 10 rounds with Raymond Muratalla.

The Ndongeni fight, in July of 2023, was staged in Nicaragua, the homeland of Mercado’s parents. Tito was born in Upland in Southern California’s Inland Empire and currently resides in Pomona.

Pomona has spawned two world champions, the late Richie Sandoval and Sugar Shane Mosley. Mercado is well on his way to becoming the third.

Marcel Cerdan Jr

Born in Casablanca, Marcel Cerdan Jr was four years old when his dad ripped the world middleweight title from Tony Zale. A good fighter in his own right, albeit nowhere near the level of his ill-fated father, the younger Cerdan passed away last week at age 81.

Fighting mostly as a welterweight, Cerdan Jr scored 56 wins in 64 professional bouts against carefully selected opponents. He came up short in his lone appearance in a U.S. ring where he was matched tough against Canadian champion Donato Paduano, losing a 10-round decision on May 11, 1970 at Madison Square Garden. This was a hard, bloody fight in which both men suffered cuts from accidental head butts.

Cerdan Jr and Paduano both trained for the match at the Concord Hotel in the Catskills. In the U.S. papers, Cerdan Jr’s record was listed as 47-0-1. The record conveniently omitted the loss that he had suffered in his third pro bout.

Eight years after his final fight, Cerdan Jr acquired his highest measure of fame for his role in the movie Edith et Marcel. He portrayed his father who famously died at age 33 in a plane crash in the Azores as he was returning to the United States for a rematch with Jake LaMotta who had taken away his title.

Edith et Marcel, directed by Claude Lelouch, focused on the love affair between Cerdan and his mistress Edith Piaf, the former street performer turned cabaret star who remains today the most revered of all the French song stylists.

Released in 1983, twenty years after the troubled Piaf passed away at age 47, the film, which opened to the greatest advertising blitz in French cinematic history, caused a sensation in France, spawning five new books and hundreds of magazine and newspaper articles. Cerdan Jr’s performance was “surprisingly proficient” said the Associated Press about the ex-boxer making his big screen debut.

The French language film occasionally turns up on Turner Classic Movies. Although it got mixed reviews, the film is a feast for the ears for fans of Edith Piaf. The musical score is comprised of Piaf’s original songs in her distinctive voice.

Marcel Cerdan Jr’s death was attributed to pneumonia complicated by Alzheimer’s. May he rest in peace.

Claressa Shields

Speaking of movies, the Claressa Shields biopic, The Fire Inside, released on Christmas day, garnered favorable reviews from some of America’s most respected film critics with Esquire’s Max Cea calling it the year’s best biopic. First-time director Rachel Morrison, screenwriter Barry Jenkins, and Ryan Destiny, who portrays Claressa, were singled out for their excellent work.

The movie highlights Shields’ preparation for the 2012 London Olympics and concludes with her training for the Rio Games where, as we know, she would win a second gold medal. In some respects, the movie is reminiscent of The Fighter, the 2010 film starring Mark Wahlberg as Irish Micky Ward where the filmmakers managed to manufacture a great movie without touching on Ward’s famous trilogy with Arturo Gatti.

The view from here is that screenwriter Jenkins was smart to end the movie where he did. In boxing, and especially in women’s boxing, titles are tossed around like confetti. Had Jenkins delved into Claressa’s pro career, a very sensitive, nuanced biopic, could have easily devolved into something hokey. And that’s certainly no knock on Claressa Shields. The self-described GWOAT, she is dedicated to her craft and a very special talent.

Shields hopes that the buzz from the movie will translate into a full house for her homecoming fight this coming Sunday, Feb. 2, at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, Michigan. A bevy of heavyweight-division straps will be at stake when Shields, who turns 30 in March, takes on 42-year-old Brooklynite Danielle Perkins.

At bookmaking establishments, Claressa is as high as a 25/1 favorite. That informs us that the oddsmakers believe that Perkins is marginally better than Claressa’s last opponent, Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse. That’s damning Perkins with faint praise.

Shields vs. Perkins plus selected undercard bouts will air worldwide on DAZN at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT.

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Ringside at the Cosmo: Pacheco Outpoints Nelson plus Undercard Results

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Ringside at the Cosmo: Pacheco Outpoints Nelson plus Undercard Results

LAS VEGAS, NV – Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Promotions was at the Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas tonight for the second half of a DAZN doubleheader that began in Nottingham, England. In the main event, Diego Pacheco, ranked #1 by the WBO at super middleweight, continued his ascent toward a world title with a unanimous decision over Steven Nelson.

Pacheco glides round the ring smoothly whereas Nelson wastes a lot energy with something of a herky-jerky style. However, although Nelson figured to slow down as the fight progressed, he did some of his best work in rounds 11 and 12. Fighting with a cut over his left eye from round four, a cut that periodically reopened, the gritty Nelson fulfilled his promise that he would a fight as if he had everything to lose if he failed to win, but it just wasn’t enough, even after his Omaha homie Terence “Bud” Crawford entered his corner before the last round to give him a pep talk (back home in North Omaha, Nelson runs the B&B (Bud and Bomac) Sports Academy.

All three judges had it 117-111 for Pacheco who mostly fought off his back foot but landed the cleaner punches throughout. A stablemate of David Benavidez and trained by David’s father Jose Benevidez Sr, Pacheco improved to 23-0 (18). It was the first pro loss for the 36-year-old Nelson (20-1).

Semi wind-up

Olympic gold medalist Andy Cruz, who as a pro has never fought a match slated for fewer than 10 rounds, had too much class for Hermosillo, Mexico’s rugged Omar Salcido who returned to his corner with a puffy face after the fourth stanza, but won the next round and never stopped trying. The outcome was inevitable even before the final round when Salcido barely made it to the final gun, but the Mexican was far more competitive than many expected.

The Cuban, who was 4-0 vs. Keyshawn Davis in closely-contested bouts as an amateur, advanced his pro record to 5-0 (2), winning by scores by 99-91 and 98-92 twice. Salido, coming off his career-best win, a 9th-round stoppage of former WBA super featherweight title-holder Chris Colbert, falls to 20-2.

Other TV bouts

Ernesto “Tito” Mercado, a 23-year-old super lightweight, aims to become the next world champion from Pomona, California, following in the footsteps of the late Richie Sandoval and Sugar Shane Mosely, and based on his showing tonight against former Beijing Olympian and former two-division title-holder Jose Pedraza, he is well on his way.

After three rounds after what had been a technical fight, Mercado (17-0, 16 KOs) knocked Pedraza off his pins with a short left hand followed by an overhand right. Pedraza bounced back and fell on his backside. When he arose on unsteady legs, the bout was waived off. The official time was 2:08 of round four and the fading, 35-year-old Pedraza (29-7-1) was saddled with his third loss in his last four outings.

The 8-round super lightweight clash between Israel Mercado (the 29-year-old uncle of “Tito”) and Leonardo Rubalcava was a fan-friendly skirmish with many robust exchanges. When the smoke cleared, the verdict was a majority draw. Mercado got the nod on one card (76-74), but was overruled by a pair of 75-75 scores.

Mercado came out strong in the opening round, but suffered a flash knockdown before the round ended. The referee ruled it a slip but was overruled by replay operator Jay Nady and what would have been a 10-9 round for Mercado became a 10-8 round for Rubalcava. Mercado lost another point in round seven when he was penalized for low blows.

The scores were 76-74 for Mercado (11-1-2) and 75-75 twice. The verdict was mildly unpopular with most thinking that Mercado deserved the nod. Reportedly a four-time Mexican amateur champion, Rubalcava (9-0-1) is trained by Robert Garcia.

Also

New Matchroom signee Nishant Dev, a 24-year-old southpaw from India, had an auspicious pro debut (pardon the cliché). Before a beaming Eddie Hearn, Dev stopped Oakland’s Alton Wiggins (1-1-1) in the opening round. The referee waived it off after the second knockdown.

Boxers from India have made large gains at the amateur level in recent years and Matchroom honcho Eddie Hearn anticipates that Dev, a Paris Olympian, will be the first fighter from India to make his mark as a pro.

Undefeated Brooklyn lightweight Harley Mederos, managed by the influential Keith Connolly, scored his seventh knockout in eight tries with a brutal third-round KO of Mexico’s Arturo de Isla.

A left-right combination knocked de Isla (5-3-1) flat on his back. Referee Raul Caiz did not bother to count and several minutes elapsed before the stricken fighter was fit to leave the ring. The official time was 1:27 of round three.

In the opener, Newark junior lightweight Zaquin Moses, a cousin of Shakur Stevenson, improved to 2-0 when his opponent retired on his stool after the opening round.

Photo credit: Melina Pizano / Matchroom

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