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The Official TSS Usyk-Joshua II Prediction Page

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When a big fight comes down the pike and if the odds are not too lopsided, we turn to our fine community of wordsmiths to get their thoughts. When Anthony Joshua defended his world heavyweight titles against former unified cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last year, the general feeling was that Joshua was just too big for him and the odds reflected the conventional wisdom. My how things have changed.

The members of our panel are listed alphabetically.

Usyk’s superior footwork is one of the big reasons he handily defeated Joshua last year. Joshua constantly looked like he was stuck in mud as Usyk was brilliantly moving around the ring peppering Joshua with punches coming from all sorts of different angles. I just can’t see a trainer-switch fixing this problem for Joshua. Outside of the oft chance of the well-schooled USYK getting careless for a moment and Joshua landing something fight-altering, I see a repeat of the first encounter. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI

Giving away three inches in height and perhaps 20 pounds in weight will not mean much when Oleksandr Usyk meets Anthony Joshua for the second time in 11 months. The thinking behind this is that as long as Usyk keeps his distance, moves his feet, employs his jab and adds a steady diet of straight shots he will emerge with another UD over Joshua and remain undefeated. The Brit is more than capable of winning but the pick is USYK – RICK ASSAD

“Size matters,” we often hear, and maybe it does on the basketball court and in porno movies. But in boxing — that fairest of sports, given its adherence to (most) weight divisions, thus preventing significant weight disadvantages — good little guys sometimes are paired against good big guys, usually to the detriment of the smaller guy. But BETTER little guys can and do defeat bigger guys in heavyweight competition, as Roy Jones Jr. proved against John Ruiz. Oleksandr Usyk is markedly smaller than Anthony Joshua, who is a good big guy, but the Ukrainian’s skill set is more varied and developed. He won the first fight by outboxing AJ, and I see it happening again. USYK by UD. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ

Anthony Joshua cannot afford another loss if he wants to lure Tyson Fury out his latest “retirement” and so the “Pride of Watford” will be in top form for the rematch with Oleksandr Usyk. I see AJ fighting big and keeping the smaller man speared on the end of his long jab. Usyk will not go without a fight but that’s exactly what Joshua will not be willing to get into with the defending heavyweight champion. JOSHUA boxes smart and gets a close but clear decision in Saudi Arabia. – JEFFREY FREEMAN

Folks in Usyk’s homeland don’t need a subscription to DAZN to see this fight; it will be on free TV in the Ukraine as a way of getting people’s mind off the war. And the expectation is that Usyk will bring his embattled homies some much-needed good cheer. AJ has appeared gun-shy lately and doesn’t have as many dimensions to his game. He’s 1-0 in rematches, but Andy Ruiz was poorly conditioned and effectively gave back his newly-won belt before he entered the ring. Oleksandr carried 221 pounds for their first meeting and has reportedly bulked-up in the interim. That concerns me; the extra weight could compromise his nimble-ness. However, I suspect this encounter will be pretty much a carbon of what transpired in London last year. USYK by decision – ARNE LANG

It was so long ago that I predicted Oleksandr Usyk would eventually beat Anthony Joshua that neither one was a champion and I was yet to pen an article for The Sweet Science. There is no way to change this horse which is not so much mid-stream as far out to sea. USYK will win, and it will not be difficult, in the sense that the Ukrainian, with more to fight for now than ever before, will never be in danger. Whether his victory comes by stoppage or by decision is up to Joshua. If the Brit, who we may see let-fly early, continues to try to win he will be stopped; if he throws up the white flag, Usyk will probably allow him to hear the final bell. Note that with the recent retirement of Tyson Fury, this would make Usyk the founder of a new heavyweight lineage. — MATT McGRAIN

Because the attributes associated with him tend to be of the colossal variety—from the rippling physique that not even Praxiteles could likely improve to the till-whistling marketability of his name to the concussive punching power—Anthony Joshua is perhaps better able than most others to shield the mental gyrations inside his head from public view. But make no mistake, he is as maladjusted as they come today, hemmed in by an apparently crippling neurosis: He has no confidence in his chin and that has afflicted his offensive output. In the first fight with Oleksandr Usyk, a former cruiserweight blown up to heavyweight standards, last year, Joshua fought as if he was walking on a high wire, timid and insecure, his punches resembling flicks rather than the haymakers expected of a fighter with his natural gifts. Unless Joshua was able to remove years of psychological baggage in one camp—however expertly run it may have been by new hire Robert Garcia—he will find himself subject to the same psychic terrors when he enters the ring Saturday night in Saudi Arabia for the rematch against a superior fighter who not only knows how to outfox him, skill-for-skill, over 12 rounds, but who also realizes that he can finish the job inside the distance. USYK by 10th-round TKO. – SEAN NAM

The bulked-up and cerebral Oleksandr “The Cat” Usyk will stop Anthony Joshua in the late rounds in Saudi Arabia on August 20. Like fellow Ukrainian Vasiliy Lomachenko, he has speed, agility, and slickness (and a tremendous amateur background), but unlike Loma, there is no flamboyance, i.e., showboating. He is all business and very aggressive. AJ will not be able to avoid being out-bullied as “THE CAT” scratches and claws his way to victory, and with the added weight, a victory that could come brutally. – TED SARES

Joshua has the size and the strength. Usyk has the will and the skill. Joshua has been mostly a one-trick pony while Usyk has continually adapted and improved, but those keys favoring Usyk are probably nullified based on the relative intangibles of AJ’s new trainer, Saudi Arabia, and unignorable distractions from the war in Ukraine. This is the kind of match in which old Vegas handicappers would list each man at minus-110 / pick ’em, and I was told “keep your betting money in your pocket and just enjoy the fight.” – PHIL WOOLEVER

Postscript: It’s our understanding that Saturday’s DAZN live stream will start about noon in the Pacific Time Zone of the United States with the ring walks for the main event commencing about 2:30 (5:30 pm ET). However, we have seen conflicting reports, so best to check back as we get closer to post. The Usyk-Joshua rematch tops a 10-fight card that includes such notables as Callum Smith and Badou Jack plus an important heavyweight match between Filip Hrgovic and Zhilei Zhang.

Postscript #2: Where big fights are concerned, money historically comes in late on the underdog until the final hours of betting when the so-called sharps lay the lumber on the favorite at the reduced price and the odds shoot back up. However, looking at the various polls out there, including this one, Oleksandr Usyk is such an overwhelming pick that it’s a fair guess that late money on the underdog (Anthony Joshua) won’t show to any appreciable degree. (AKL)

Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom

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Mbilli Stays Unbeaten: Outpoints Gongora in a Bruising Tiff

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Camille Estephan’s “Eye of the Tiger” promotions returned to the Montreal Casino tonight with an 8-bout card capped by an intriguing match between super middleweights Christian Mbilli and Carlos Gongora, both former Olympians.

The Cameroon-born Mbilli (pictured on the left) represented France in the 2016 Rio Games. He was undefeated (23-0, 16 KOs) coming in and ranked #2 by the WBA. The Massachusetts-based Gongora, a two-time Olympian for his native Ecuador, brought a 23-1 (16) record, his lone defeat coming on the road in Manchester, England, to currently undefeated Lerrone Richards.

When the smoke cleared, Mbilli won a unanimous decision, but the scores (99-91, 98-92, and 97-93) were misleading as this was an entertaining fight and the granite-chinned Gondora, a southpaw, was always a threat to turn the tide with his signature punch, a left uppercut. In fact, he may have landed the best punch of the fight when he hurt Mbilli in the opening minute of the eighth round. But the muscular Mbilli shook off the cobwebs and stormed back, dominating the final minute of the eighth and then finishing strong, nearly forcing a stoppage with a non-stop assault in the final frame.

Mbilli would love to fight the winner of Saturday’s tiff between David Benavidez and Caleb Plant, but that’s not likely to happen. A more likely scenario finds Mbilli opposing fellow unbeaten Vladimir Shishkin, the Detroit-based Russian.

Co-Feature

Simon Kean, a six-foot-five, 250-pound heavyweight from Three Rivers, Quebec, advanced to 23-1 (22 KOs) with a seventh-round stoppage of 40-year-old warhorse Eric Molina (29-9).

Both were tentative during most of the match. The end came rather suddenly when Kean knocked Molina down with an overhand right after landing a good left hook. The punch did not appear to land flush, but Molina was swaying as he made it to his feet and the referee called it off.

It was not a particularly impressive performance by Kean. Molina, a special education teacher in the Rio Grande Valley community of Edinburg, Texas, hinted before the bout that this would be his final fight. That would be a sensible idea. He has been stopped six times in his last 10 outings and nine times overall.

Also

In a 10-round bout contested at 140 pounds, Calgary veteran Steve Claggett improved to 34-7-2 (24) with a TKO over Mexican import Rafael Guzman Lugo (26-3-2) whose corner pulled him out after seven frames. This was a good action fight fought at close quarters, albeit Claggett was clearly in control when the bout was halted.

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A Conversation About Boxing with Author and Journalist Steve Marantz

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If you ask former sportswriter Steve Marantz when was boxing’s Golden Age, he’s quick with a response.

His answer just so happens to coincide with the period when he was on the beat as a boxing columnist for the Boston Globe (1979-1987).

“You could argue that boxing has had a few Golden Ages, but yes, that was an exciting and memorable era,” said Marantz, who sat ringside for many legendary matches. “The round-robin bouts amongst [Ray] Leonard, [Marvin] Hagler, [Thomas] Hearns and [Roberto] Duran, certainly was a major element.”

Those four legends are important but other weight division kings also played an integral role in boxing’s global popularity.

“Let’s not forget [Aaron] Pryor, [Alexis] Arguello, [Julio Cesar] Chavez, [Salvador] Sanchez, [Hector] Camacho, [Wilfredo] Gomez, Michael Spinks, [Dwight Muhammad] Qawi, [Donald] Curry, [Mike] Tyson and [Evander] Holyfield,” Marantz offered. “The key was competitive balance in most of the divisions.”

Marantz began his journalism career in 1973 at the Kansas City Star after graduating from the University of Missouri. After leaving the Globe, he worked for the Boston Herald (1999-2004) and ESPN (2004-2016). Nowadays, in addition to freelance writing for publications such as the Jewish Journal of Greater Boston, he produces the podcast “Championship Stories.”

Marantz recalled one particular moment that stood out while covering boxing and it happened at Aaron Pryor’s training camp.

“I have a vivid memory of his workout before he fought Arguello in Miami, November 1982. He had a hot funk song on the speakers, “You Dropped A Bomb On Me,” and as it played, loudly, he shadow-boxed to its beat and lyrics,” he recalled. “A rope was stretched across the gym, four feet off the floor, and Pryor moved along the rope, ducking under and back, gloves flashing. He was hypnotized by the music, in a trance. Hypnotized me, too. A moment that made boxing so cool to cover.”

That classic matchup at the famed Orange Bowl was halted in the 14th round with Pryor winning by technical knockout.

Anyone at Caesars Palace on April 15, 1985, knows what happened over roughly eight minutes of hot action when Hagler and Hearns tangled. It was nonstop punches from both participants.

“Hagler and Hearns fought as if possessed,” recalled Marantz of that showdown. “The stark final image [for me] was that of Hearns, now helpless, semiconscious, looking very like a black Christ taken from the cross, in the arms of a solemn aide.

“Hagler’s pent-up bitterness found release in a violent attack, even as each crack of Hearns’ gloves reinforced a lifetime of slights. In the end, Hearns was martyred to absolve Hagler of victimization. The first round is legendary, among the most vicious and splendid ever fought on the big fight stage. Action accelerated so quickly that spectators were left breathless. Punches windmilled into a blur, though the actual count was 82 punches for Hagler and 83 for Hearns, about three times that of a typical round.”

While that fight has blended into boxing folklore, a 1976 Olympic gold medal winner from Palmer Park, Maryland, was the epitome of true greatness for Steve Marantz.

“The way Sugar Ray Leonard maneuvered [Roberto] Duran to ‘No Mas’ in their rematch was brilliant. His grit and toughness beat Hearns, one of the great fights of the 1980s. And he beat Hagler with brains and psychology. Not to overlook his win over [Wilfred] Benitez in 1979. He was gorgeous to watch, stylish and rhythmic. His combinations were a blur. And he strategized like a chess master. Smooth and cooperative in interviews, always aware of the marketing and promotional necessities. Leonard was the gold standard.”

Marantz re-visited the Hagler-Leonard fight and the drama that surrounded it in “Sorcery at Caesars: Sugar Ray’s Marvelous Fight,” first released in 2008 and now available as an eBook.

Boxing’s been called the cruelest and the most unforgiving sport, but it’s also filled with high drama.

“It’s a test of athleticism, intelligence, grit and character. At its best, it’s dramatic and unpredictable, exciting,” Marantz said of the fight game. “A rich history of iconic personalities and events. Joe Louis and Max Schmeling, for example. A window into history bigger than just sport, a window into popular culture and politics.”

Marantz fondly recalls some of the characters he met while covering the sweet science: “Promoters Don King and Bob Arum, both conniving quotable snakes. Trainer Ray Arcel, in his 80s, a pillar of honesty and integrity. Emanuel Steward and Prentiss Byrd, running the Kronk Gym as a beacon of light and hope in Detroit’s blighted inner city. In Brockton, Massachusetts, two Italian-American brothers, Goody and Pat Petronelli, formed a sacred trust with an African- American boxer, Marvin Hagler.”

Marantz went on: “On my first newspaper job with the Kansas City Times/Star, I met a kindly trainer, Peyton Sher, who welcomed me into his gym and taught me the basics,” he said. “Never will forget Daeshik Seo, the Korean therapist for Larry Holmes who two weeks before the Holmes-[Gerry] Cooney fight in June 1982, tipped me to a story that a member of Holmes’ entourage pulled a pistol on Cooney’s entourage at Caesars Palace. Caesars top brass had to call Holmes on the carpet to get his people under control. Holmes was incensed at the story. In his media session after he won, he said I wrote it because I was [expletive] … and that I worked in a racist city, Boston.”

Marantz has never been put off by the seedy elements of the sport. “I don’t feel polarized by it.,” he says. “Nobody is forced to box. Nobody is forced to watch it. The world has bigger problems than boxing.”

Marantz has fond memories of the people he met and the friendships he made while covering boxing. Does he miss not being rinigside? “Not really,” he says. “My time came and went. Journalism and life took me in other directions. I do have some nostalgia for that era, and for the people who were part of it.”

Having been around the sweet science for a spell, Marantz offered sage advice to anyone inclined to mix it up: “Be disciplined, work hard, find a good trainer, learn the subtleties, read the tea leaves and don’t be pig-headed.”

Actually, all of those traits are always handy, even if one doesn’t step into the ring.

You can read more about Steve Marantz at his website: www.stevemarantz.com

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Mercito Gesta Victorious Over Jojo Diaz at the Long Beach Pyramid

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LONG BEACH, CA.-Those in the know knew Mercito Gesta and Jojo Diaz would be a fight to watch and they delivered.

Gesta emerged the winner in a super lightweight clash between southpaws that saw the judges favor his busier style over Diaz’s body attack and bigger shots and win by split decision on Saturday.

Despite losing the main event because the star was overweight, Gesta (34-3-3, 17 KOs) used an outside method of tactic to edge past former world champion Diaz (32-4-1, 15 KOs) in front of more than 5,000 fans at the Pyramid.

The speedy Gesta opened up the fight with combination punching up and down against the peek-a-boo style of Diaz. For the first two rounds the San Diego fighter overwhelmed Diaz though none of the blows were impactful.

In the third round Diaz finally began unloading his own combinations and displaying the fast hands that helped him win world titles in two divisions. Gesta seemed stunned by the blows, but his chin held up. The counter right hook was Diaz’s best weapon and snapped Gesta’s head back several times.

Gesta regained control in the fifth round after absorbing big blows from Diaz. He seemed to get angry that he was hurt and opened up with even more blows to send Diaz backpedaling.

Diaz targeted his attack to Gesta’s body and that seemed to slow down Gesta. But only for a round.

From the seventh until the 10th each fighter tried to impose their style with Gesta opening up with fast flurries and Diaz using right hooks to connect with solid shots. They continued their method of attack until the final bell. All that mattered was what the judges preferred.

After 10 rounds one judge saw Diaz the winner 97-93 but two others saw Gesta the winner 99-91, 98-92. It was a close and interesting fight.

“I was expecting nothing. I was the victor in this fight and we gave a good fight,” said Gesta. “It’s not an easy fight and Jojo gave his best.”

Diaz was surprised by the outcome but accepted the verdict.

Everything was going good. I thought I was landing good body shots,” said Diaz. “I was pretty comfortable.”

Other Bouts

Mexico’s Oscar Duarte (25-1-1, 20 KOs) knocked out Chicago’s Alex Martin (18-5, 6 KOs) with a counter right hand after dropping him earlier in the fourth round. The super lightweight fight was stopped at 1:14 of the round.

A battle between undefeated super welterweights saw Florida’s Eric Tudor (8-0, 6 KOs) emerge the winner by unanimous decision after eight rounds versus Oakland’s Damoni Cato-Cain.

The taller Tudor showed polished skill and was not bothered by a large cut on his forehead caused by an accidental clash of heads. He used his jab and lead rights to defuse the attacks of the quick-fisted southpaw Cato-Cain. The judges scored the fight 80-72 and 78-74 twice for Tudor.

San Diego’s Jorge Chavez (5-0, 4 KOs) needed less than one round to figure out Nicaragua’s Bryan Perez (12-17-1, 11 KOs) and send him into dreamland with a three-punch combination. No need to count as referee Ray Corona waved the fight over. Perez shot a vicious right followed by another right and then a see-you-later left hook at 3.00 of the first round of the super featherweight match.

Photo credit: Al Applerose

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