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The Official TSS Usyk-Joshua II Prediction Page
When a big fight comes down the pike and if the odds are not too lopsided, we turn to our fine community of wordsmiths to get their thoughts. When Anthony Joshua defended his world heavyweight titles against former unified cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last year, the general feeling was that Joshua was just too big for him and the odds reflected the conventional wisdom. My how things have changed.
The members of our panel are listed alphabetically.
Usyk’s superior footwork is one of the big reasons he handily defeated Joshua last year. Joshua constantly looked like he was stuck in mud as Usyk was brilliantly moving around the ring peppering Joshua with punches coming from all sorts of different angles. I just can’t see a trainer-switch fixing this problem for Joshua. Outside of the oft chance of the well-schooled USYK getting careless for a moment and Joshua landing something fight-altering, I see a repeat of the first encounter. – MATT ANDRZEJEWSKI
Giving away three inches in height and perhaps 20 pounds in weight will not mean much when Oleksandr Usyk meets Anthony Joshua for the second time in 11 months. The thinking behind this is that as long as Usyk keeps his distance, moves his feet, employs his jab and adds a steady diet of straight shots he will emerge with another UD over Joshua and remain undefeated. The Brit is more than capable of winning but the pick is USYK – RICK ASSAD
“Size matters,” we often hear, and maybe it does on the basketball court and in porno movies. But in boxing — that fairest of sports, given its adherence to (most) weight divisions, thus preventing significant weight disadvantages — good little guys sometimes are paired against good big guys, usually to the detriment of the smaller guy. But BETTER little guys can and do defeat bigger guys in heavyweight competition, as Roy Jones Jr. proved against John Ruiz. Oleksandr Usyk is markedly smaller than Anthony Joshua, who is a good big guy, but the Ukrainian’s skill set is more varied and developed. He won the first fight by outboxing AJ, and I see it happening again. USYK by UD. – BERNARD FERNANDEZ
Anthony Joshua cannot afford another loss if he wants to lure Tyson Fury out his latest “retirement” and so the “Pride of Watford” will be in top form for the rematch with Oleksandr Usyk. I see AJ fighting big and keeping the smaller man speared on the end of his long jab. Usyk will not go without a fight but that’s exactly what Joshua will not be willing to get into with the defending heavyweight champion. JOSHUA boxes smart and gets a close but clear decision in Saudi Arabia. – JEFFREY FREEMAN
Folks in Usyk’s homeland don’t need a subscription to DAZN to see this fight; it will be on free TV in the Ukraine as a way of getting people’s mind off the war. And the expectation is that Usyk will bring his embattled homies some much-needed good cheer. AJ has appeared gun-shy lately and doesn’t have as many dimensions to his game. He’s 1-0 in rematches, but Andy Ruiz was poorly conditioned and effectively gave back his newly-won belt before he entered the ring. Oleksandr carried 221 pounds for their first meeting and has reportedly bulked-up in the interim. That concerns me; the extra weight could compromise his nimble-ness. However, I suspect this encounter will be pretty much a carbon of what transpired in London last year. USYK by decision – ARNE LANG
It was so long ago that I predicted Oleksandr Usyk would eventually beat Anthony Joshua that neither one was a champion and I was yet to pen an article for The Sweet Science. There is no way to change this horse which is not so much mid-stream as far out to sea. USYK will win, and it will not be difficult, in the sense that the Ukrainian, with more to fight for now than ever before, will never be in danger. Whether his victory comes by stoppage or by decision is up to Joshua. If the Brit, who we may see let-fly early, continues to try to win he will be stopped; if he throws up the white flag, Usyk will probably allow him to hear the final bell. Note that with the recent retirement of Tyson Fury, this would make Usyk the founder of a new heavyweight lineage. — MATT McGRAIN
Because the attributes associated with him tend to be of the colossal variety—from the rippling physique that not even Praxiteles could likely improve to the till-whistling marketability of his name to the concussive punching power—Anthony Joshua is perhaps better able than most others to shield the mental gyrations inside his head from public view. But make no mistake, he is as maladjusted as they come today, hemmed in by an apparently crippling neurosis: He has no confidence in his chin and that has afflicted his offensive output. In the first fight with Oleksandr Usyk, a former cruiserweight blown up to heavyweight standards, last year, Joshua fought as if he was walking on a high wire, timid and insecure, his punches resembling flicks rather than the haymakers expected of a fighter with his natural gifts. Unless Joshua was able to remove years of psychological baggage in one camp—however expertly run it may have been by new hire Robert Garcia—he will find himself subject to the same psychic terrors when he enters the ring Saturday night in Saudi Arabia for the rematch against a superior fighter who not only knows how to outfox him, skill-for-skill, over 12 rounds, but who also realizes that he can finish the job inside the distance. USYK by 10th-round TKO. – SEAN NAM
The bulked-up and cerebral Oleksandr “The Cat” Usyk will stop Anthony Joshua in the late rounds in Saudi Arabia on August 20. Like fellow Ukrainian Vasiliy Lomachenko, he has speed, agility, and slickness (and a tremendous amateur background), but unlike Loma, there is no flamboyance, i.e., showboating. He is all business and very aggressive. AJ will not be able to avoid being out-bullied as “THE CAT” scratches and claws his way to victory, and with the added weight, a victory that could come brutally. – TED SARES
Joshua has the size and the strength. Usyk has the will and the skill. Joshua has been mostly a one-trick pony while Usyk has continually adapted and improved, but those keys favoring Usyk are probably nullified based on the relative intangibles of AJ’s new trainer, Saudi Arabia, and unignorable distractions from the war in Ukraine. This is the kind of match in which old Vegas handicappers would list each man at minus-110 / pick ’em, and I was told “keep your betting money in your pocket and just enjoy the fight.” – PHIL WOOLEVER
Postscript: It’s our understanding that Saturday’s DAZN live stream will start about noon in the Pacific Time Zone of the United States with the ring walks for the main event commencing about 2:30 (5:30 pm ET). However, we have seen conflicting reports, so best to check back as we get closer to post. The Usyk-Joshua rematch tops a 10-fight card that includes such notables as Callum Smith and Badou Jack plus an important heavyweight match between Filip Hrgovic and Zhilei Zhang.
Postscript #2: Where big fights are concerned, money historically comes in late on the underdog until the final hours of betting when the so-called sharps lay the lumber on the favorite at the reduced price and the odds shoot back up. However, looking at the various polls out there, including this one, Oleksandr Usyk is such an overwhelming pick that it’s a fair guess that late money on the underdog (Anthony Joshua) won’t show to any appreciable degree. (AKL)
Photo credit: Mark Robinson / Matchroom
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Avila Perspective, Chap. 310: Japanese Superstar Naoya Inoue and More
Many proclaim super bantamweight world champ Naoya Inoue to be the best fighter in the world today. It’s a serious debate among boxing pundits.
Is he Japan’s best fighter ever?
Inoue (28-0, 25 KOs) takes another step toward immortality when he meets Korea’s Ye Joon Kim (21-2-2, 13 KOs) on Friday Jan. 24, at Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan. ESPN+ will stream the Top Rank and Ohashi Promotions card.
Inoue defends the IBF, WBC, WBA and WBO world titles.
This is Inoue’s third defense of the undisputed super bantamweight division that he won when he defeated Philippines’ Marlon Tapales in December 2023.
Japan has always been a fighting nation, a country derived from a warrior culture like Mexico, England, Russia, Germany and a few others. Professional boxing has always thrived in Japan.
My first encounter with Japanese fighters took place in March 1968 at the Olympic Auditorium in Los Angeles. It was my first visit to the famous boxing venue, though my father had performed there during the 1950s. I was too young to attend any of his fights and then he retired.
The main event featured featherweights Jose Pimentel of Mexico against Sho Saijo of Japan. Both had fought a month earlier with the Mexican from Jalisco winning by split decision.
Pimentel was a friend of my female cousin and gave my father tickets to the fight. My family loved boxing as most Latino families worldwide do, including those in the USA. It’s a fact that most sports editors for newspapers and magazines fail to realize. Latinos love boxing.
We arrived late at the boxing venue located on Grand Avenue and 18th street. My father was in construction and needed to pick me up in East L.A. near Garfield High School. Fights were already underway when we arrived at the Olympic Auditorium.
It was a packed arena and our seats were fairly close to the boxing ring. As the fighters were introduced and descended to the ring, respectful applause greeted Saijo. He had nearly defeated Pimentel in their first clash a month earlier in this same venue. Los Angeles fans respect warriors. Saijo was a warrior.
Both fighters fought aggressively with skill. Every round it seemed Saijo got stronger and Pimentel got weaker. After 10 strong rounds of back-and-forth action, Saijo was declared the winner this time. Some fans booed but most agreed that the Japanese fighter was stronger on this day. And he was stronger still when they met a third time in 1969 when Saijo knocked out Pimentel in the second round for the featherweight world title.
That was my first time witnessing Japan versus Mexico. Over the decades, I’ve seen many clashes between these same two countries and always expect riveting battles from Japanese fighters.
I was in the audience in Cancun, Mexico when then WBC super featherweight titlist Takashi Miura clashed with Sergio Thompson for 12 rounds in intense heat in a covered bull ring. After that fight that saw three knockdowns between them, the champion, though victorious, was taken out on a stretcher due to dehydration.
There are so many others going back to Fighting Harada in the 1960s that won championships. And what about all the other Japanese fighters who never got the opportunity to fight for a world title due to the distance from America and Europe?
Its impossible to determine if Inoue is the greatest Japanese fighter ever. But without a doubt, he is the most famous. Publications worldwide include him on lists of the top three fighters Pound for Pound.
Few experts are familiar with Korea’s Kim, but expect a battle nonetheless. These two countries are rivals in Asian boxing.
Golden Boy at Commerce Casino
Middleweights Eric Priest and Tyler Howard lead a Golden Boy Promotions fight card on Thursday, Jan. 23, at Commerce Casino in Commerce, CA. DAZN will stream the boxing card.
All ticket money will go to the Los Angele Fire Department Foundation.
Kansas-based Priest (14-0, 8 KOs) meets Tennessee’s Tyler Howard (20-2, 11 KOs) in the main event in a match set for 10 rounds.
Others on the card are super welterweights Jordan Panthen (10-0) and Grant Flores (7-0) in separate bouts and super lightweight Cayden Griffith seeking a third consecutive win. Doors open at 5 p.m.
Diego Pacheco at Las Vegas
Super middleweight contender Diego Pacheco (22-0, 18 KOs) defends his regional titles against Steve Nelson (20-0, 16 KOs) at the Chelsea Theater at the Cosmopolitan Hotel in Las Vegas on Saturday, Jan. 25. DAZN will stream the Matchroom Boxing card.
It’s not an easy fight for Pacheco.
“I’ve been fighting for six years as a professional and I’m 22-0 and I’m 23 years old. I feel I’m stepping into my prime now,” said Pacheco, who trains with Jose Benavidez.
Also on the card is Olympic gold medalist Andy Cruz and Southern California’s dangerous super lightweight contender Ernesto Mercado in separate fights.
Fights to Watch (All times Pacific Time)
Thurs. DAZN 6 p.m. Eric Priest (14-0) vs Tyler Howard (20-2).
Fri. ESPN+ 1:15 a.m. Naoya Inoue (28-0) vs Ye Joon Kim (21-2-2).
Sat. DAZN 9:15 a.m. Dalton Smith (16-0) vs Walid Ouizza (19-2); Ellie Scotney (9-0) vs Mea Motu (20-0).
Sat. DAZN 5 p.m. Diego Pacheco (22-0) vs Steve Nelson (20-0).
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Skylar Lacy Blocked for Lamar Jackson before Making his Mark in Boxing
Skylar Lacy, a six-foot-seven heavyweight, returns to the ring on Sunday, Feb. 2, opposing Brandon Moore on a card in Flint, Michigan, airing worldwide on DAZN.
As this is being written, the bookmakers hadn’t yet posted a line on the bout, but one couldn’t be accused of false coloring by calling the 10-round contest a 50/50 fight. And if his frustrating history is any guide, Lacy will have another draw appended to his record or come out on the wrong side of a split decision.
This should not be construed as a tip to wager on Moore. “Close fights just don’t seem to go my way,” says the boxer who played alongside future multi-year NFL MVP Lamar Jackson at the University of Louisville.
A 2021 National Golden Gloves champion, Skylar Lacy came up short in his final amateur bout, losing a split decision to future U.S. Olympian Joshua Edwards. His last Team Combat League assignment resulted in another loss by split decision and he was held to a draw in both instances when stepping up in class as a pro. “In my mind, I’m still undefeated,” says Lacy (8-0-2, 6 KOs). “No one has ever kicked my ass.”
Lacy was the B-side in both of those draws, the first coming in a 6-rounder against Top Rank fighter Antonio Mireles on a Top Rank show in Lake Tahoe, Nevada, and the second in an 8-rounder against George Arias, a Lou DiBella fighter on a DiBella-promoted card in Philadelphia.
Lacy had the Mireles fight in hand when he faded in the homestretch. The altitude was a factor. Lake Tahoe, Nevada (officially Stateline) sits 6,225 feet above sea level. The fight with Arias took an opposite tack. Lacy came on strong after a slow start to stave off defeat.
Skylar will be the B-side once again in Michigan. The card’s promoter, former world title challenger Dmitriy Salita, inked Brandon Moore (16-1, 10 KOs) in January. “A capable American heavyweight with charisma, athleticism and skills is rare in today’s day and age. Brandon has got all these ingredients…”, said Salita in the press release announcing the signing. (Salita has an option on Skylar Lacy’s next pro fight in the event that Skylar should win, but the promoter has a larger investment in Moore who was previously signed to Top Rank, a multi-fight deal that evaporated after only one fight.)
Both Lacy and Moore excelled in other sports. The six-foot-six Moore was an outstanding basketball player in high school in Fort Lauderdale and at the NAIA level in college. Lacy was an all-state football lineman in Indiana before going on to the University of Louisville where he started as an offensive guard as a redshirt sophomore, blocking for freshman phenom Lamar Jackson. “Lamar was hard-working and humble,” says Lacy about the player who is now one of the world’s highest-paid professional athletes.
When Lacy committed to Louisville, the head coach was Charlie Strong who went on to become the head coach at the University of Texas. Lacy was never comfortable with Strong’s successor Bobby Petrino and transferred to San Jose State. Having earned his degree in only three years (a BA in communications) he was eligible immediately but never played a down because of injuries.
Returning to Indianapolis where he was raised by his truck dispatcher father, a single parent, Lacy gravitated to Pat McPherson’s IBG (Indy Boxing and Grappling) Gym on the city’s east side where he was the rare college graduate pounding the bags alongside at-risk kids from the city’s poorer neighborhoods.
Lacy built a 12-6 record across his two seasons in Team Combat League while representing the Las Vegas Hustle (2023) and the Boston Butchers (2024).
For the uninitiated, a Team Combat League (TCL) event typically consists of 24 fights, each consisting of one three-minute round. The concept finds no favor with traditionalists, but Lacy is a fan. It’s an incentive for professional boxers to keep in shape between bouts without disturbing their professional record and, notes Lacy, it’s useful in exposing a competitor to different styles.
“It paid the bills and kept me from just sitting around the house,” says Lacy whose 12-6 record was forged against 13 different opponents.
As a sparring partner, Lacy has shared the ring with some of the top heavyweights of his generation, e.g., Tyson Fury, Anthony Joshua and Dillian Whyte. He was one of Fury’s regular sparring partners during the Gypsy King’s trilogy with Deontay Wilder. He worked with Joshua at Derrick James’ gym in Dallas and at Ben Davison’s gym in England, helping Joshua prepare for his date in Saudi Arabia with Francis Ngannou and had previously sparred with Ngannou at the UFC Performance Center in Las Vegas. Skylar names traveling to new places as one of his hobbies and he got to scratch that itch when he joined Whyte’s camp in Portugal.
As to the hardest puncher he ever faced, he has no hesitation: “Ngannou,” he says. “I negotiated a nice price to spend a week in his camp and the first time he hit me I knew I should have asked for more.”
Lacy is confident that having shared the ring with some of the sport’s elite heavyweights will get him over the hump in what will be his first 10-rounder (Brandon Moore has never had to fight beyond eight rounds, having won his three 10-rounders inside the distance). Lacy vs. Moore is the co-feature to Claressa Shields’ homecoming fight with Danielle Perkins. Shields, basking in the favorable reviews accorded the big-screen biopic based on her first Olympic journey (“The Fire Inside”) will attempt to capture a title in yet another weight class at the expense of the 42-year-old Perkins, a former professional basketball player.
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Mizuki Hiruta Dominates in her U.S. Debut and Omar Trinidad Wins Too at Commerce
Japan’s Mizuki Hiruta smashed through Mexico’s Maribel Ramirez with ease in winning by technical decision and local hero Omar Trinidad continued his assault on the featherweight division on Friday.
Hiruta (7-0, 2 KOs), who prefers to be called “Mimi,” made her American debut with an impressive performance against Mexican veteran Maribel Ramirez (15-11-4) and retained the WBO super flyweight world title by unanimous decision at Commerce Casino in Commerce, Calif.
The pink-haired Japanese southpaw champion quickly proved to be quicker, stronger and even better than advertised. In the opening round Ramirez landed on the floor twice after throwing errant blows. On one instance, it could have been ruled a knockdown but it was not a convincing blow.
In the second round, Ramirez again attacked and again was met with a Hiruta check right hook and down went the Mexican. This time referee Ray Corona gave the eight-count and the fight resumed.
It was Hiruta’s third title defense but this time it was on American soil. She seemed nervous by the prospect of getting a favorable review from the more than 700 fans inside the casino tent.
For more than a year Hiruta has been training off and on with Manny Robles in the L.A. area. Now that she has a visa, she has spent considerable time this year learning the tricks of the trade. They proved explosively effective.
Though Mexico City’s Ramirez has considerable experience against world champions, she discovered that Hiruta was not easy to hit. Often, the Japanese champion would slip and counter with precision.
It was an impressive American debut, though the fight was stopped in the eighth round after a collision of heads. The scores were tallied and all three saw Hiruta the winner by scores of 80-71 twice and 79-72.
“I’m so happy. I could have done much more,” said Hiruta through interpreter Yuriko Miyata. “I wanted to do more things that Manny Robles taught me.”
Trinidad Wins Too
Omar Trinidad (18-0-1, 13 KOs) discovered that challenger Mike Plania (31-5, 18 KOs) has a very good chin and staying power. But over 10 rounds Trinidad proved to be too fast and too busy for the Filipino challenger.
Immediately it was evident that the East L.A. featherweight was too quick and too busy for Plania who preferred a counter-puncher attack that never worked.
“He was strong,” said Trinidad. “He took everything.”
After 10 redundant rounds all three judges scored for Trinidad 100-90 twice and 99-91. He retains the WBC Continental Americas title.
Other Bouts
Ali Akhmedov (23-1, 17 KOs) blasted out Malcolm Jones (17-5-1) in less than two rounds. A dozen punches by Akhmedov forced referee Thomas Taylor to stop the super middleweight fight.
Iyana “Roxy” Verduzco (3-0) bloodied Lindsey Ellis in the first round and continued the speedy assault in the next two rounds. Referee Ray Corona saw enough and stopped the fight in favor of Verduzco at 1:34 of the third round.
Gloria Munguilla (7-1) and Brook Sibrian (5-2) lit up the boxing ring with a nonstop clash for eight rounds in their light flyweight fight. Munguilla proved effective with a slip-and-counter attack. Sibrian adjusted and made the fight closer in the last four rounds but all three judges favored Munguilla.
More Winners
Joshua Anton, Tayden Beltran, Adan Palma, and Alexander Gueche all won their bouts.
Photos credit: Al Applerose
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