I Hope My Hunch is Wrong, but Don’t Be Surprised to see Mayweather-PacMan II

Boxing’s only eight division titlist Manny Pacquiao won a big fight this past weekend, stopping Lucas Matthysse in the seventh round. In the process, he ended his nine year and 13-fight drought of not winning inside the distance. Manny was intent on showing the boxing world that he’s not yet, five months shy of his 40th birthday, a second tier fighter and the setback to Jeff Horn in his prior bout last summer was more the case of the judges needing eyeglasses than him fighting with diminished skills.

Pacquiao 60-7-2 (39) looked good, beating Matthysse 39-5 (36) at every turn along with dropping him three times. Granted, Matthysse looked like an empty package from the onset and it was no secret going into the bout that Pacquiao was the overall greater fighter if his body didn’t betray him. However, at his age and the way he dominated and controlled every minute of the fight, it was an impressive showing for the Philippine terror.

Before the fight, it was written that if Pacquiao won he’d be meeting WBA lightweight champ Vasyl Lomachenko or WBO welterweight champ Terence Crawford in his next bout. Now, I’m not so sure. In order to fight Lomachenko he would either have to drop in weight to below 140 or bring Lomachenko up and risk his welterweight belt. If he fights under 140, a weight at which I believe he’d be weakened and drained, Lomachenko would pick him apart – and Lomachenko would be foolish to meet him at welterweight as Pacquiao would have to be the favorite. The other option is fighting Crawford in a welterweight unification bout between the WBA and WBO titlists, and if that were to happen, Crawford would beat up, stop and finish Manny’s career as a big money fighter. Neither Lomachenko nor Crawford represents the best option.

Boxing observers are usually prisoners of the moment so I’ll try and resist that in what I’m about to say – but aside from the top five welterweights in the world, Pacquiaio is competitive and capable of beating anyone else. The problem is fighting them wouldn’t pay a fortune, and Manny is fighting for the most money he can get at this stage of his career. So in order to fight for the huge money, he needs to fight a big name opponent. And the biggest name opponent has gone under the radar for the first time in a long time and his name is Floyd Mayweather!

Before laughing out loud, let me make my case.

Think about what we know for certain about Mayweather, starting with he loves big money fights with minimal risk that he can sell to the public. Like Pacquiao, Mayweather would be taken apart by either Terence Crawford or Errol Spence, and he knows it. At this stage, in order for Floyd to make off-the-chart money, he needs to face a fighter who is thought to be dangerous or one with a gimmick attached, and that’s exactly why he fought MMA star Conor McCgregor last August. If you think about it, Pacquiao is in the same boat and needs to face a killer or a fighter with an angle or gimmick attached to him.

Since losing a unanimous decision to Mayweather in May of 2015, Pacquiao has been adamant that he went into the bout with an injured shoulder that compromised his performance. In addition, Manny has never denied how badly he’d like another shot at Mayweather. In turn Floyd scoffed at the thought but after Pacquiao beat Matthysse in the manner he did, the dynamics have changed. If Mayweather were to announce he’s UN-retiring and fighting Pacquiao again, it would rock the boxing world and no one could refute that it would again dominate boxing circles.

As of this writing Mayweather must see Pacquiao as a safe but credible opponent and Pacquiao has the added plus of being a world title holder. The thought Mayweather could leave so much money on the table for fighting a man he already beat, who he’ll always hold the style advantage over, is hard for me to accept. Floyd knows there is a built-in market for the fight just between his fans and Manny’s fans. He understands that they don’t need a promoter because Floyd has been one and Pacquiao virtually did the Matthysse fight on his own. He also knows there is not much risk as far as him being embarrassed by Pacquiao or hurt by him.

The last time Mayweather and Pacquiao touched gloves, it was the highest grossing fight in history. In 2018 there’s nobody credible that either man could fight and make one quarter the money. In Pacquiao’s case it’s either be humiliated by the quicker Lomachenko or be brutalized by the bigger, stronger and faster Crawford, and for one quarter the money he’d earn fighting  Mayweather who can’t hurt him, only out-box him. And if you’re Mayweather, why wouldn’t you fight the man who afforded you the greatest payday in boxing history and is hot again, knowing you probably own him stylistically?

When we last saw Mayweather he looked rusty and average against McGregor. He said he only trained for a week or so, and based on his ineptness, it’s plausible. However, he’d kill himself getting ready for Pacquiao if they were to meet and he’d win again, but that doesn’t matter because the boxing public would fall for the con.

The year 2017 and so far 2018 have been a resurgence for boxing and we are again seeing the best fight the best, something that died during the Mayweather era. Floyd is a narcissist and would love to enter boxing again and suck all the air out of the room. If he said he’d give Pacquiao a rematch, it would dull the excitement of the real marque matchups on the horizon like Joshua-Wilder, Crawford-Spence and Lomachenko-Garcia.

I hope my hunch is wrong and that I’ve over-thought it, but don’t be surprised to see Mayweather vs. Pacquiao in 2019 because it never made more dollars and cents for them to fight again as it does now. Mayweather wins a game of tag again, neither fighter’s legacy would be hurt and it’s the biggest and safest money fight for both.

Why wouldn’t they do it again?

Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com

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