Nontshinga vs Suganob is Worth Tracking Down This Weekend

“Sivenathi is supposed to beat Suganob,” according to South African boxing kingpin Andile Sidinile. “Suganob has no power to scare off Sivenathi. He’s just a good fighter.”

This is as succinct a summary of this weekend’s superb clash between elite 108lb contenders Sivenathi Nontshinga (11-0), out of South Africa, and Filipino Regie Suganob (13-0) as can be made. Nontshinga, ranked #5, has the makings of a special fighter. This Sunday, on home soil in East London, SA, he will make the first defence of a strap he won in the hostile territory of Mexico against Hector Flores Calixto, via decision. Aged just twenty-four, “The Special One” surprised in this fight, his coming of age, in choosing war over crafty boxing. Styled from the footwork up to a ramrod jab, he stopped throwing that punch in the fourth, a 2022 round of the year contender, arguably exceeded in some senses by the fifth before he and Calixto took turns brutalising each other in the sixth. Nontshinga received a complete gut, chin and stamina check all in one brutal Mexican evening.

Blood drenched even the ringside paperwork by the end of the fight; Nontshinga had his hand raised on a split. I saw the South African’s superior work edging him home by a narrow margin over the Mexican’s exhausted volume, but a card for Calixto would not have been a robbery. Right-handed quality in the early part of the fight is what brought him the decision on my card and perhaps he should be thankful to have been treated so fairly so far from home.

Pitching the Calixto win is key to understanding Nontshinga, who, after all, was taking a big step up in a difficult learning fight. It is a fact, however, that Calixto was stopped in ten by journeyman flyweight Mario Gutierrez earlier this year. It could be that Nontshinga brutalised the best out of Calixto, such was the violence of that encounter, but it could be that Nontshinga’s punches have been overestimated by the weaker company he kept before that step up. The punches look the part, certainly, but power can be difficult to appraise without the competition to provide the test. Enter Regie Suganob, who is actively looking for a rerun of the Nontshinga-Calixto war.

Manager Floriezyl Podot has repeated often in the build-up that he hopes Nontshinga doesn’t “run” while mysteriously referencing “two areas” they feel they can exploit. Goading the man who splattered ringsiders with Calixto’s blood is a brave strategy indeed, but Suganob is not a man unaccustomed to overcoming the odds.

Suganob was little more than a handy undefeated local in his elimination match with more colourful countryman Mark Vicelles, but it was clear from the very first that this was going to be something different. Vicelles won that first round, but Suganob demonstrated three fascinating traits – a skill at countering the Vicelles jab; a nice counter left hook; and most of all, a watchfulness, a stillness and composure that allowed him to make use of these. This last should be noted because if Suganob is to defeat Nontshinga that patience in reading is going to be the key. It breathes life into a foraging, improvised style.

In the fourth round of his fight with Vicelles, Suganob added a straight-right to his hook, and countered his bigger opponent to the canvas at which point he assumed control of both the round and the fight. By the sixth the fight was a technical mismatch. Suganob was landing lead right hands before a left hook finally finishing the combination on another right-hand, outrageous combination-punching against a favoured fighter but simply put, Suganob saw and read his man before punishing him accordingly. It took half of the scheduled twelve for him to unpick the opposition’s style and then correctly identify the punches that would most punish him. This is not the work of a 13-0 combat athlete.

But nor does Nontshinga box like an 11-0 combat athlete. There are, however, certain shortfalls in amongst his speed, fleet-footwork and apparent power that might make him vulnerable to an ad-libbed strategy built from a technically sure base. Nontshinga’s jab is a hurtful, well-formed punch but he does not use it with the variety of a veteran. Nor does Suganob, but the important difference here is that Suganob specialises in countering this punch. Suganob is no more proven against quality opposition, or quality jabs, than Nontshinga, but Nontshinga lost his jab in the Calixto win, too. This may have been a matter of choice rather than a forced adaptation, but I do feel that Nontshinga’s jab has been predictable and that might play right into the left-hook/straight right combination punching of Suganob. He might be able to time Nontshinga’s speed, and his jab, both.

“I don’t underestimate him, I respect him as a boxer,” Nontshinga has said of Suganob. “But we’re going to win this fight by knockout.”

I liked reading this. This, in combination with Podot’s jibe about Nontshinga “running” makes me wonder if perhaps we won’t see a re-run of Nontshinga’s last, thrilling fight, although it should be noted that brawling is not Suganob’s primary style, either. It is more likely that Suganob wants Nontshinga attacking because it gives him more opportunities to score high-class counter combos for points. It would be unusual and delightful both if Suganob elected to plant his feet and duke it out but this fight doesn’t need early drama to develop into a classic. Disputed early rounds could bait a war out of these two men in the second half of the fight and calling it would be difficult, not despite their inexperience but because of it. There is no way to know how Nontshinga would react to being out-sniped, and no way to know how Suganob would respond to the attack Nontshinga laid down upon Calixto.

In the final analysis, Nontshinga should probably be favoured but I think Suganob is a very live dog. Catching this one may be difficult. It is listed on the DAZN slate with first bell around 9 am ET/2 pm BST, but there remains some question about whether the streaming platform will pick it up at this late date. Personally, I am just happy to see it going ahead given how close it seemed to being cancelled. Already postponed once from mid-June, reportedly for South African broadcast purposes, it was alleged that the fight was in jeopardy due to money the IBF had not been paid by Rumble Africa Promotions who did work for Nontshinga. He has since signed with Matchroom.

If this one drops to politics it will be the third such fight to evaporate this year already, and a tragedy. I hesitate to suggest this will be another fight of the year contender, but it is also true that I slept on Nontshinga-Calixto. Whether on DAZN or another platform –  and there are usually late carriers for these more minor title fights — this one will be worth tracking down.