Ali-Spinks I: A Trip Down Memory Lane in Search of the Elusive Betting Line

A friend inquired if I happened to know the odds on the first Ali-Spinks fight. “No, I don’t,” I said, “but no problem, I’ll just look it up.” In the end, I wasn’t able to ferret out a satisfactory answer to his question, but I enjoyed rummaging through the archives and re-visiting a very special moment in boxing history. When ring announcer Chuck Hull mouthed the words “and the new,” the din was deafening, blowing the roof off its hinges, in a matter of speaking.

Upsets come in two flavors. One flavor is empirical. It is derived from the true odds on an event, numbers culled from a bookmaker’s wagering board. I have always loved weaving empirical odds into a story because odds cut right to the chase, quantifying the magnitude of an upset.

The other kind of upset is subjective. It has to do with the shock factor, something that can’t be quantified. Some upsets are positively mind-blowing among the population at large, but yet somewhat pedestrian among hard-core gamblers who are in action every day. The bigger the event, the bigger the shock factor when a heavy underdog springs an upset.

Leon Spinks upset of Muhammad Ali at the Las Vegas Hilton on Thursday, Feb. 16, 1978, registered very high on the phantasmagorical shock meter.

“Neon Leon” was a gold medal winner at the 1976 Montreal Olympics, but had only seven pro fights under his belt when he was thrust against Ali. He had been held to a draw by Minnesota journeyman Scott LeDoux in his first 10-round bout and his effort in his most recent fight with Alfio Righetti was unexceptional. Righetti came in undefeated (27-0), but wasn’t a big puncher and was a part-time prizefighter, juggling his boxing career around his day job as a traffic policeman in Rimini, Italy. Spinks outpointed Righetti by 46-44 on all three cards on Nevada’s “five-point must” system.

A poll of visiting sportswriters by the Las Vegas Review-Journal found no takers for Leon Spinks. Although he was the younger man by 12 years, the conventional wisdom was that he would fade late because he was still adjusting to the pro game which places a premium on stamina. In an amateur career that reportedly consisted of 185 fights, Leon was never required to fight more than three rounds.

Among those favoring Ali was Rollie Schwartz, the team manager of the 1976 U.S. Olympic team. Schwartz noted that Leon, unlike his younger brother Michael, had discipline issues as an amateur.

Ali-Spinks I wasn’t a great fight, but it was a fight infused with great drama.

Despite giving away a few of the early rounds, Ali was clearly in front after 10 frames. But the upstart would prove to have more fuel in his tank.

Round 14 was a big round for Spinks. He hurt Ali with a big left hook midway through the stanza and out-punched the worried champion as they exchanged combinations as the round was drawing to a close.

As the boxers awaited the bell for the final round, the tension was thick. Would the great Muhammad Ali summon up some reservoir of strength and pull the fight out of the fire as he had done so often in the past? Or would Spinks maintain his advantage now that the momentum had shifted? Ali was still the people’s champion, but as always happens when a big upset is brewing, many in the audience with no financial stake in the outcome had shifted their allegiance to the underdog. The final round was a doozy and almost to a man, everyone in the packed auditorium remained standing as the round played out amidst a great clamor.

Ali came out strong, “throwing every punch he ever learned” in the words of ringside reporter John Schulian, but Neon Leon saved his best for last. With his mother Kay looking on, clutching tight to her Bible, Leon rocked Ali in the final seconds, sending him stumbling back to his corner. All three judges gave Spinks each of the last three rounds and two of them had Spinks the winner. Ali concurred with the majority, conceding that he was fairly beaten.

Ali’s Legacy

What would have been Ali’s legacy if the verdict had gone the other way? Obviously, it would have improved his final record, but as New York Times scribe Dave Anderson astutely noted, it would not have redounded well to him at all.

In previous fights, Ali had won disputed decisions over Ken Norton and Jimmy Young and struggled to put away Earnie Shavers while winning a unanimous decision by scores (9-5-1, 9-6, 9-6) that struck many as too wide. Had he been given the decision over Spinks, it would have been widely assailed as a heist and brought more scrutiny to those earlier fights plus denying him the opportunity to make history as the first three-time heavyweight champion. “Ali Fails To Con Two Judges” was the headline above Anderson’s ringside report.

The Odds

About those odds: In 1978, sports betting in Nevada still had one foot in the closet despite a recent reduction in the bookmakers’ federal wagering tax that set the wheels in motion for an avalanche of legal sports betting. Only two hotels on the Strip had sports betting parlors. The Hilton, which opened as the International and is now called the Westgate, would come to have the most prominent sports book in the city, the SuperBook, but in 1978 it had no book whatsoever.

A number of pre-fight stories made note of the fact that Ali was such a prohibitive favorite that bookmakers didn’t bother to post a betting line. This was largely true, but there were a few exceptions.

Several newspaper stories referenced Spinks as a 10/1 underdog, but to get the real skinny a reporter in town for the fight would have had to find his way to one of the little freestanding bookie joints downtown, fading remnants of an earlier era. There – and keeping in mind that betting lines are fluid – he would have likely found -600/+400 on the chalkboard with Ali, quite naturally, the favorite.

LA Times sportswriter Jim Murray came up with another of his splendid metaphors when he wrote that Ali vs. Spinks held out about as much intrigue as the main course of a Thanksgiving dinner. However, there were a number of sharp handicappers who thought otherwise, conceding Spinks a reasonable chance of emerging victorious, not because he was anything special, but because at age 36 “The Greatest” was so evidently on the downgrade and he didn’t figure to bring his “A” game. How could he take Leon seriously after just knocking out Superman in the pages of an oversized DC comic book?

As empirical upsets go, Leon Spinks’ triumph as a roughly 4/1 underdog wasn’t earth-shattering. However, the betting line was out of whack with the shock meter. It was a stunning upset.

“Leon Spinks endured one of the most exciting and grueling fifteen rounds of action and (came out a winner),” said a resolution of congratulations passed by the House of Representatives in Leon’s home state of Missouri. That was the highlight of a career that was otherwise a big disappointment but, my goodness, what a highlight it was.

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